Alan Bush. December 26, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES

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1 Alan Bush December 26, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES Financial Forecast Stock index futures advanced after President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump called Mnuchin a "very talented guy, very smart person." The U.S. government partial shutdown is keeping investors nervous. President Trump on Tuesday said the partial shutdown of the federal government was going to continue until his demand for funds to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is met. The 9:00 central time December Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index is expected to be 14. It may take a while, but downward pressure on interest rates globally, of course not from the Fed in the short term, will ultimately rescue this market. It is better to trade other markets where the fundamentals are more lined up in the same direction, as is the case for gold and the thirty year Treasury bond futures. CURRENCY FUTURES The U.S. dollar is higher and is forming a symmetrical triangle formation. The rule of thumb is that 60% to 65% of the time prices will break out of a congestion pattern in the same direction that they came into the pattern. I expect a move lower for the greenback in the near term. The flight to quality currencies, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are lower in light of higher stock index futures.

2 There was additional pressure on the Japanese yen when Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda hinted that the BoJ could keep its accommodative policies for a longer period. The Australian dollar is higher as a result of a better tone to the U.S.-China trade situation. INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES The thirty year Treasury bond futures advanced to a new five month high before trading slightly lower. The Treasury will auction five year notes today. In spite of the Federal Open Market Committee last week saying it plans to hike its fed funds rate two times next year, the financial futures markets believe the Fed may not be able to hike rates even one time in Currently there is only a 24% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from the FOMC in 2019 from the current rate of 2.25%-2.50% and a 12% chance of a reduction in the fed funds rate to by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25%. Longer term, I expect the interest rate futures market will likely trend higher, led by the thirty year Treasury bond futures. Continue to trade the interest rate futures from the long side. Gold futures are higher and registered a five month high today. Gold is likely to continue to advance in price. March 19 S&P 500 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

3 Support Resistance Financial Forecast March 19 U.S. Dollar Index Support Resistance March 19 Euro Currency Support Resistance March 19 Japanese Yen Support Resistance March 19 Canadian Dollar Support Resistance March 19 Australian Dollar Support.7039 Resistance.7076 March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds Support 145^0 Resistance 146^8 February 19 Gold Support Resistance March 19 Copper Support Resistance February 19 Crude Oil Support Resistance 44.55

Alan Bush. December 27, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Alan Bush. December 27, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES Alan Bush December 27, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES Financial Forecast Yesterday s sharp gains were probably due to the growing belief that the Federal Open Market Committee may not be in a position to hike