Alan Bush. October 1, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES

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1 Alan Bush Financial Forecast October 1, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES U.S. stock index futures are sharply higher after the U.S. and Canada reached a last minute deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is called the United States- Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The agreement removes tariff risks from approximately $1.2 trillion worth of a goods each year. The 8:45 central time September PMI manufacturing index is expected to be There are two 9:00 reports. The September Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 59.9 and August construction spending is estimated to be up.5%. Despite of a variety of ongoing geopolitical issues the still relatively low interest rate environment is dominating and remains long term supportive to U.S. stock index futures. CURRENCY FUTURES The euro currency is lower due to increased political and economic tensions within the European Union, as the ruling parties in Italy push for a larger deficit target in the euro zone's third largest economy. Italy s antiestablishment government significantly widened its budget deficit target for 2019, which likely sets the country on a collision course with the E.U. There was some support for the currency of the euro zone on news that the euro zone jobless rate was the lowest since November The euro zone August unemployment rate 8.1%, which compares to 8.2% in July.

2 The British pound advanced on news that consumer borrowing on U.K. credit cards increased in August. The Japanese yen is lower after a government report showed confidence among Japan's large manufacturers weakened for the third straight quarter in three months to September. The main index measuring large manufacturers' sentiment was 19 in the July-September period, which compared with 21 in the previous survey in June, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey. The reading was also lower than the forecast of 21. The Canadian dollar is higher on news that the U.S. and Canada reached a last minute deal late Sunday night to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Mexican peso also climbed. INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES Flight to quality longs were liquidated in light of the new trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada. According to the financial futures markets, the probability of a fed funds rate hike in December is 78%, which compares to 79% on Friday. Federal Reserve speakers today are Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari at 10:00 and Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren at 11:15. The long term trend for futures is lower as the U.S. economy remains strong and the FOMC will likely continue on its tightening path this year and in SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

3 December 18 S&P 500 Support Resistance Financial Forecast December 18 U.S. Dollar Index Support Resistance December 18 Euro Currency Support Resistance December 18 Japanese Yen Support Resistance December 18 Canadian Dollar Support Resistance December 18 Australian Dollar Support.7203 Resistance.7236 December 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds Support 139^12 Resistance 140^14 December 18 Gold Support Resistance December 18 Copper Support Resistance November 18 Crude Oil Support Resistance 73.93

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