Briefing North Shore Office August 2018

Transcription

1 avills esearch riefing orth hore ffice ugust 2018 ighlights rade net effective rents grew on average by 15.9% over the year to June 2018; lack of assets available for sale and increasing unaffordability in ydney has also seen an increase in interest in office assets in ydney s orth hore office markets; oreign investors were the most active buyers in the orth hore market, purchasing 44.0% of the stock sold; orth hore market rents, particularly orth ydney, have benefited from recent rapid growth in ydney rents due to vacancy constraints and major stock withdrawals. rade vg. (th ydney) atest r hange utlook ental.. ($/sq m) % ncentives (et)** bps ental. ($/sq m) % ield arket (%) bps (%)** bps apital alues ($/sq m) 13, % emand & upply (th ydney) atest * acancy et bsorb. ( 000 sq m) tock / ( 000 sq m) % of market % committed * = revious orresponding eriod **umbers are as at Q2-18. onsiderable valuation uplift is expected in Q3-18 as a result of recent sales transactions

2 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 eport ontents acancy 3 upply 3 easing ctivity & emand 4 ales ctivity 5 ents 6 utlook 7 evelopment ap 9 ey ndicators 10 ey ontacts 10 ssociate irector apital trategy & esearch hrabastee allik smallik@savills.com.au or our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research o join avills esearch mailing list, please research@savills.com.au xecutive ummary ydney s orth hore office markets comprise of orth ydney and acquarie ark with the smaller markets of rows est / t eonards and hatswood, totalling 2,265,264 square metres of stock, with the largest market being acquarie ark. hilst historically, the orth hore office market has been characterised by a higher proportion of secondary grade stock, new developments over the last 3 years has seen the proportion of rime grade stock increase significantly, now representing 51% of total stock. ith the urban landscape undergoing further changes as a result of infrastructure activity (e.g. ydney etro and orwest etro projects) and new developments, particularly in the orth ydney office market, we will see this proportion increase even more over the 2019/20 period as the next development cycle comes to a completion. he strength of the ydney office market has clearly spilled over into the orth hore office market and particularly in orth ydney, which has benefitted from occupiers driven by a lack of contiguous space in ydney. his has had the effect of driving rents up, with rade and rade net effective rents increasing by 15% and 29% respectively in - 18, on the back of rising net face rents and falls to incentives over the same period. lack of assets available for sale and increasing unaffordability in ydney has also seen an increase in interest in office assets in ydney s orth hore office markets. ver the year to arch 2018 (latest available on / numbers) the orth ydney office market had a total return of 18.4%, eclipsing the 15.3% return in ydney. ith 12.2% of this attributed to capital growth, it is clear that interest in office assets in orth ydney remains high. ith similar demographics to the and with some of the strongest growth forecasts nationally (in relation to employment and population), the orth ydney market continues to be identified as a viable alternative to the neighbouring as an investment destination. ummary able orth hore including acquarie ark (as at Jun-18) rime econdary otal on- otal tock ( 000) 1, , , ,256.4 otal acancy ( 000) acancy (%) 4.5 (8.2) 8.5 (10.8) 6.5 (9.6) 9.0 (9.2) et bsorption ( 000) 24.5 (19.4) (-1.4) 14.4 (18.0) 29.9 (48.1) et bsorption (%)* 2.2 (1.9) -1.0 (-0.1) 0.7 (0.9) 0.5 (0.8) et dditions ( 000) -3.8 (15.4) (-1.9) (13.5) (73.5) - tock dditions ( 000) tock ithdrawals ( 000) et dditions (%)** -0.3 (1.4) -1.8 (-0.2) -1.0 (0.6) -0.1 (1.1) ource: avills esearch (10yr verages shown in brackets; : econdary ents shown are for grade; ll rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise *s a percentage of occupied stock; **s a percentage of total stock savills.com.au/research 2

3 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 acancy he total vacancy rate in the entire orth hore office market (orth ydney, rows est / t eonards, hatswood and acquarie ark) fell to a record low of 6.5% in June own from 8.1% in June 2017, this was driven by falls in the prime vacancy rate, which fell to a historically low level of 4.5%. hilst the rows est / t eonards recorded the highest vacancy rate (at 9.9%), this doesn t take into account the asterard leasing deal at 72 hristie treet, where they took up 11,000 square metres in early July. aking this account, the vacancy rate would fall to 6.8% for the rows est / t eonards office market. avills esearch expects vacancy rates for the orth hore region to continue to trend downwards as a result of limited upcoming supply over hilst 2019/20 will see a considerable amount of supply coming on board (mostly in orth ydney), approximately 50% has already been pre-committed and current leasing campaigns are indicative of increased take-up by the time the developments come to completion. istoric acancy (orth hore inc. acquarie ark) 16% rime econdary otal 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% et upply by ear (orth hore inc. acquarie ark) 150,000 istoric et dditions 125,000 avills orecast 15yr vg 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 - (25,000) (50,000) ource: avills esearch ource: avills esearch upply here has been a period of muted construction activity in the orth hore office markets since 2016, as illustrated in the et upply chart above. t the same time, withdrawals associated with infrastructure projects and re-developments (particularly in the rows est / t eonards and hatswood office markets) has meant that the markets are experiencing significant pent-up demand. n the 6 months to June 2018, a total of 14,402 square metres of stock was withdrawn from the orth hore office markets, with the nearly 95% of this in orth ydney. his demand is further exacerbated by tenants moving north of the in search of contiguous space. he completion of the next development cycle, due for completion in 2019/20 will bring much needed relief to the market, particularly in orth ydney, where with 3 new projects (100 ount treet, 1 enison treet and 118 ount treet) will bring approximately 130,000 square metres of supply onto the market. his new supply is already leading to significant upward revisions on rents achieved in the orth ydney office market. ith ydney s population growth forecast to mirror the strong growth over the last 10 years into the future, developers continue to question the best use for secondary grade assets. emand from the ydney office market and major infrastructure investment such as the new ydney etro and orwest etro railway lines, improve the viability, connectivity and accessibility of each orth hore office market. owever, various other developments within the acquarie ark and rows est / t eonards markets remain mooted, as the inability to secure pre-commitments and continued questions arising about possible residential / mixed-use conversions, further defer their commencement. savills.com.au/research 3

4 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 easing ctivity & emand n the 12 months to June 2018, avills esearch recorded 49,350 square metres of leasing activity in the orth hore market (above 1,000 square metres). his is circa 62% less than the 131,371 square metres leased in -17 (largely due to pre-commitment activity on the new developments in orth ydney). hilst leasing activity in the current financial year were circa 42% below the 10 year average, this is not a reflection of muted demand for space in the orth hore office markets, but rather a lack of available space, particularly in orth ydney. he majority of the leasing activity in -18 (approximately 95% of space) was in the orth ydney precinct, with enquiries for metropolitan office space primarily for sub- 1,000 square metre space requirements. owever, as noted before, the lease signed by asterard for 11,000 square metres at 72 hristie treet is not accounted for in the adjoining chart. he ' and omminutions' sector remained the most active, accounting for approximately 60% of total space leased. otably, llianz signed onto lease 5,654 square metres at 101 iller treet in ebruary easing ctivity by recinct (> 1,000 square metres) 140,000 th ydney - t eonards acquarie ark 120,000 hatswood 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - ource: avills esearch easing ctivity by enant ype (> 1,000 square metres) & omm % ovt & ommunity % e expect the co-working trend to proliferate across the orth hore in 2018, particularly in orth ydney as we start to see the trend towards co-working flow through from the and ringe arkets (yrmont, urry ills) into the orth ydney market. he potential for current occupiers to sublet surplus space to co-working providers, allows co-working providers the opportunity to locate themselves with prime grade whilst reducing the cost the current occupier. necdotal evidence suggests a number of large co-working groups are looking at new developments such as 1 enison orth ydney and 100 ount treet. ource: avills esearch 'ale & etail % in & ns - 7.8% ining - 0.0% rop & us erv - 0.0% ecent otable eases (by rea eased) enant roperty ate ype ent erm 100 ount t, orth ydney ug-17 20,000 recommit 750 (et) iller t, orth ydney light entre ar-18 6,600 irect 740 (et) 7 50 iller t, orth ydney onsulate eneral ydney ay-18 6,000 irect n.a iller t, orth ydney llianz ustralia ervices eb-18 5,654 irect 746 (et) n.a erbert t, rtarmon orth hore eterinary ospital pr-18 2,200 irect 310 (ross) acific wy, orth ydney rthur J allagher ug-17 2,027 irect 708 (et) acific wy, orth ydney eckon ar-18 1,663 irect 680 (et) acific wy, hatswood ustralia ar-18 1,100 irect 520 (et) 5 40 iller t, orth ydney nfo lobal Jul-17 1,100 irect 660 (et) 5 ource: avills esearch savills.com.au/research 4

5 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 ales avills esearch recorded approximately $1.70 billion worth of office transactions (over $5 million) in the 12 months to June 2018 across the combined orth hore market. his was largely in line with sales activity in the previous 12 month period and but down approximately 16% the five year average of $2.02 billion. he majority of these deals were in orth ydney (accounting for 66% of all deals transacted in -18). orth ydney is firmly on the radar of both local and offshore investors who have very strong interest for all asset types. e expect more investors to enter the market over the medium term looking for assets within the orth hore market. e are already seeing this, with capital growth accounting for 12.2% of total returns (18.4%) in the year to arch 2018 (latest available on / data) for the orth ydney office market. oreign nvestors were the most active purchaser type, accounting for 44% of all buyers in the orth hore market. his is in line with interest from offshore funds over the last 3 financial years. e expect an increase in interest from foreign investors as relative pricing forces them out of the in search of yield. owever, this increase in interest in orth hore office assets is already pushing down yields to historically low levels. he sale of alker treet (a secondary rade building), orth ydney for $21.30 million at a reported yield of 4.63% in pril 2018, is a clear indication of market yields continuing to trend downwards. otably, over -18, the majority of assets transacted were of secondary quality, accounting for 60% of all office assets transacted, reflective of investor interest in assets that they can re-develop. he largest deal outside of orth ydney was the sale of hristie treet in t eonards for $166 million at an equated yield of 5.74%, showing the differentiation in yields across the orth hore market. his is where avills esearch expect the most growth over the short to medium term, as the area benefits from ongoing redevelopments associated with residential conversions and infrastructure activity. s at June 2018, rade market yields in orth ydney ranged from 5.00% to 5.50%, suggesting a compression of 75 basis points on average in -18. t the same time, rade market yields ranged from 5.50% to 6.0%, falling 90 basis points, on average, over the same period. n acquarie ark, prime market yields ranged from 5.50% to 6.0% over the same period, suggesting a 50 basis point compression, on average, over -18. t is important to note that recent sales evidence is indicative of s compressing considerably in Q3-18. apital values in orth hore office markets grew at a much faster pace than ydney over -18, as investors turned their attention north of the. n orth ydney, capital values increased by 16.9%, whilst in acquarie ark, capital values grew by 16.7%, on average, in the current annual period. ales ctivity by recinct (>$5 million) $3,500m $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m $3,000m $2,500m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m $0m ource: avills esearch endor & urchaser ype (>$5 million) endors urchasers apital alues ($/sq m) vs. arket ields 16,000 apital alue - orth ydney 14,000 arket ield () 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% und rust eveloper wner ccupier overnment yndicate oreign nvestor rivate nvestor ther ource: avills esearch ource: avills esearch 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% savills.com.au/research 5

6 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 ecent otable ales (over the year to Jun-18) roperty rice ($m) ate ield ype $/sq m hristie t, t eonards ec-17 18, e 9, iller t, orth ydney Jul-17 11, i 11,779 1 acific wy, orth ydney ct-17 7, e 14, acific wy, orth ydney ay-18 9, e 11,962 8 hartoum d, acquarie ark ug-17 12, i 7, alker t, orth ydney ar-18 8, e 8, alker t, orth ydney ct-17 6, e 11, erry t, orth ydney ec-17 5, i 11, acific wy, t eonards Jun-18 6, e 9, iller t, orth ydney ay-18 6, e 8,541 ource: avills esearch ents orth hore market rents, particularly orth ydney, have benefited from recent rapid growth in ydney ( & grade markets) rents due to vacancy constraints and major stock withdrawals. enants with upcoming expiries in the may consider orth hore, particularly orth ydney, as a viable alternative. dditionally, the orth hore commercial market is set to benefit from infrastructure projects such as the new etro railway line, as improvements to accessibility and reduction in commute times helps increases desirability for each of the orth hore precincts. s at June 2018, net face rents in orth ydney typically range from $750 to $850 per square metre for rade buildings, and between $650 and $750 per square metre for secondary grade buildings. t the same time, net face rents in acquarie ark typically ranged from $315 to $400 per square metre for rade buildings. et ffective ents by rade ($/sq m) th ydney et ace & et ffective ents (as at Jun-18) th ydney 700 rade rade et ace ent et ffective ent et ncentive % - rhs rade rade ource: avills esearch ource: avills esearch savills.com.au/research 6

7 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 ummary able by recinct - orth hore (as at Jun-18) hatswood rows est/ t eonards acquarie ark orth ydney orth hore (otal) otal tock ( 000) ,265.3 otal acancy ( 000) acancy (%) 6.5 (11.1) 9.9 (12.1) 5.4 (8.9) 6.3 (8.7) 6.5 (9.6) et bsorption ( 000) 1.1 (0.8) 2.2 (-5.2) 21.4 (19.6) (2.9) 14.4 (18.0) et bsorption (%)* -0.3 (-0.3) (-1.7) -2.5 (4.6) 4.5 (0.4) 0.7 (0.9) et dditions ( 000) 0.0 (-0.7) -7.1 (-5.8) -4.7 (31.4) (0.1) (13.5) - tock dditions ( 000) tock ithdrawals ( 000) et dditions (%)** 0.0 (-0.3) -2.3 (-1.7) -0.5 (4.6) -1.5 (0.0) -1.0 (0.6) ource: avills esearch (10yr verages shown in brackets); : econdary ents shown are for grade; ll rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise *s a percentage of occupied stock; **s a percentage of total stock utlook acancy constraints and the increasing rental levels in the ydney will likely strengthen tenant demand for orth hore commercial space. enants with upcoming expiries in the may consider the orth hore, particularly orth ydney, as a viable alternative given the price differential. dditionally, the orth hore commercial market is set to benefit from infrastructure projects, such as the new etro railway line, which will improve accessibility and reduce commute times to each of the orth hore precincts. onstruction on the additional railway station at orth ydney (ictoria ross) is considered a positive outcome for orth ydney, with completion projected in ecember nce complete, it will improve the amenity and accessibility for tenants in the northern sector of the orth ydney. he orth hore office markets, similar to other ydney office markets, is currently experiencing a period of low vacancy and large stock withdrawals for conversion to residential or hotel uses. hese market factors are helping improve the development fundamentals for the orth hore, particularly orth ydney. urther supply could also be unlocked in the form of mooted projects, however most likely once pre-commitments have been secured. lanning reforms are anticipated to further impact the orth hore commercial market over the coming years. otably, large sections of acquarie ark s commercial core remain under planning review stages. nvestigation into the long-term future of acquarie ark s commercial centre is currently underway by the overnment along with the ity of yde ouncil. etting out the long-term strategic planning framework, the new planning schemes are expected to protect and enhance acquarie ark s role as a major commercial precinct. savills.com.au/research 7

8 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 savills.com.au/research 8

9 29 ek re s re oo ek u m e lu tle re cho oint ullers ridge Q 1 ugust 2018 arr oint J Z evelopment ap Q - avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice Z Z J Q Z J k Z Z Z 9 savills.com.au/research acquarie ark Z Z Z J Z J Z J Z Z Z Z Z Q Z J Z Z J J acquarie ark J J acquarie ark overnment J ine, J lexandra enants a y ewcombe oint ambourine ay J acquarie ark aing ourke, acquarie ark rows est/t eonards orth ydney recinct acquarie ark 2020 orth ydney J J 74,000 14,477 50,000 Q Z 32,000 44,000 xp. omp 25,000 14,874 45,720 J J ev tage 396 ane ove oad, acquarie ark pping oad, acquarie ark Z 8-12 niversity venue, acquarie ark 11 alavera oad, acquarie ark 41, acific ighway, rtarmon (3 stages) 1 enison t, orth ydney Q 100 ount treet, orth ydney 45 aterloo oad, orth yde 95 aterloo oad, orth yde Q Z k e e r ambourine ay o o d f o r d ay 2 3 ewcombe oint 3 nions J oint lexandra utchers lock ay oint Z m m m 2 J Q 3 J J m Z J Q J 1 Q 3 in ore ill ore Z J 2 k ree orner laxlands Q J Q 1 2 J J 38 J 1 in J J 29 ridge 1 JQ Q ullers 2 Q uilding ddress Q - J J 2 2 J Z J J J 2 Q J e k re J Z J J e n r i u bo m Z a Z J s rry e eek r J Q J Z J J acht ay Q J 2 J Q Q Z Z J Z Q J Q Z J Q J Q J J Z J Z J J J J

10 avills esearch riefing otes orth hore ffice ugust 2018 ey ndicators (as at Jun-18) orth ydney acquarie ark rade rade rade ow igh ow igh ow igh ental - ross ace ($/sq m) ental - et ace ($/sq m) ncentive evel et 15% 25% 15% 20% 25% 30% ental - et ffective ($/sq m) utgoings - perating ($/sq m) utgoings - tatutory ($/sq m) utgoings - otal ($/sq m) ypical ease erm ield - arket (%) (%) ars ermanent eserved ($/pcm) ffice apital alues ($/sq m) 12,500 15,000 10,000 11,750 6,500 7,500 ource: avills esearch : ll rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise ey tate ontacts esearch hrabastee allik +61 (0) smallik@savills.com.au ffice easing ob ickins +61 (0) rdickins@savills.com.au aluations ndrew annifex +61 (0) apannifex@savills.com.au apital ransactions an etherington +61 (0) ihetherington@savills.com.au etro & egional ales obert owe +61 (0) rlowe@savills.com.au roject anagement avin oswarva +61 (0) gboswarva@savills.com.au sset anagement dele agleton +61 (0) aeagleton@savills.com.au ccupier ervices Javan atheson +61 (0) jmatheson@savills.com.au he avills esearch & onsultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. or national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: apital trategy & esearch hris reeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au avills is a leading global property service provider listed on the ondon tock xchange. rusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the sia acific, with over 50 offices, and in ustralia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. his information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. o representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. avills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. avills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. his information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. ou should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. ll images are only for illustrative purposes. his information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of avills. savills.com.au/research 10