VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC REPORT Q2/2018

Transcription

1 VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC REPORT Q2/2018 1

2 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank WB World Bank FS Financial statement SB State budget RE Real Estate M&A Mergers and Acquisitions Brexit Withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio GDVC General Department of Vietnam Customs FC Financial Company CI Credit Institutions EIA Energy Information Administration GSO General Statistics Office FIA Foreign Investment Agency JSC Joint Stock Commercial FED Federal Reserve System Ltd. Limited HNX Hanoi Stock Exchange GB Government Bonds HSX Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange VAMC Vietnam Asset Management Company NFSC National financial supervision commission VBMA Vietnam Bond Market Association SBV State Bank of Vietnam VIRAC Vietnam Industry Research and Consultancy CB Commercial Bank 2

3 Content Report Summary Fiscal policy World economy Banking system Economic growth Trade agreements and legal documents Commodity market Agreed trade agreements and impacts Vietnam economy New issued legal documents and decrees Economic growth Operation of investment channels GDP Bonds Production Shares Consumption Commodity market Investment Mergers and Acquisitions Import and export Risks and Forecasts CPI Risks Monetary policy Forecasts 76 3

4 Report Summary According to the January 2018 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for world economic growth for 2018 and Most of the major currencies have been increasing against the dollar. FDI in 3M/2018 has had a strong growth Vietnam's participation in free trade agreements in recent years such as AEC, CPTPP, EVFTA, etc. will be an opportunity to boost export activities. 4

5 Content 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth 1.2 Commodity market 5

6 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth Global economy growth, /2018 The world economy recovered in Developed economies are forecast to grow at 2.3% in Sources: VIRAC, World Bank 6

7 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth Forecasts for world economy growth (%), 1/ The difference compared to the forecast of October 2017 World Output United States Euro Area Japan China Sources:: VIRAC, IMF China's economy is forecast to reach 6.8% growth target for 2017 due to strong domestic consumption, exports and industrial production reaching the highest level since

8 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth ASEAN has introduced the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of 2015, bringing the potential to promote intra-asean trade and establish a more unified market that is more competitive. % ASEAN economy growth, F Sources: VIRAC, ADB Billion USD GDP of ASEAN countries, World Economic Forum (WEF) predicts that by 2020, Southeast Asia will become the world's fifth largest economy. Sources: VIRAC, Bloomberg 8

9 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth Most of the major currencies have been increasing against the dollar. USD/EUR and USD/JPY exchange rates, /2018 Sources: VIRAC, Bloomberg USD/CNY exchange rate, /2018 USD/JPY exchange rate on 30/03/2018 was Sources: VIRAC, Bloomberg 9

10 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth Global trade in the third quarter of 2017 has shown signs of recovery after a sharp fall in Billion USD Global trade, M/2017 Europe is the largest importer with 36.3% of total global imports, Billion USD Nguồn: VIRAC, WTO Import and export value of the world by regions, Q3/2017 Sources: VIRAC, WTO 10

11 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth China continues to be the largest exporter of commodity in the world Billion USD Top 10 commodity exporters of the world, 9M/2017 Following China was the United States with a total export value of $ billion, accounting for 9.2% of the total export value in the world. Notably in Q3 / 2017, there was a strong rise of Korea in both exports Billion USD and imports. Nguồn: VIRAC, WTO Top 10 commodity importers of the world, 9M/2017 Sources: VIRAC, WTO 11

12 Content 1. World economy 1.1 Economic growth 1.2 Commodity market 12

13 1. World economy 1.2 Commodity market Monthly growth in world commodity prices, Q1/2018 (%) Energy Agricultural products Food Raw material Metal Source: VIRAC, World Bank In the first quarter of 2018, commodity prices midly fluctuated. Giá hàng hóa thế giới những tháng đầu năm 2018 có xu hướng tăng nhẹ so với cuối năm 2017 chủ yếu do giá năng lượng, kim loại tăng mạnh và giá lương thực ít biến động. Theo đó: Giá năng lượng cuối quý 1/2018 tăng mạnh so với cùng kì năm 2017, tăng 23.9% và tăng nhẹ 0.56% so với tháng 2/2018. Giá dầu thô trong 3 tháng đầu năm 2018 tiếp tục tăng do những kỳ vọng của thị trường về việc các nước sản xuất lớn sẽ cắt giảm nguồn cung để giải quyết trình trạng dư cung diễn ra trong cuộc họp của OPEC và các nhà sản xuất dầu đá phiến của Mỹ ở Houston. Tại thời điểm đầu tháng 3/2018, giá dầu WTI giao tháng 4/2018 đã tăng lên USD/bbl; dầu Brent giao tháng 5/2018 cũng tăng lên USD/bbl. Giá hàng hóa phi năng lượng ước tăng 4.4% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Trong đó, giá lương thực tăng 3.73% và giá nông sản tăng nhẹ 2.61%, giá nguyên liệu thô tăng nhẹ (khoảng 2.32%); riêng giá kim loại (trừ vàng) có mức tăng mạnh (14.2%) so với cùng kỳ năm Năm 2018, IMF dự báo giá hàng hóa thế giới năm 2018 có thể chỉ biến động nhẹ so với năm Trong đó, giá năng lượng tăng khoảng 4%, giá hàng hóa phi năng lượng dự báo tăng 0.6%, trong đó, giá kim loại giảm 0.7% và giá thực phẩm tăng 1.2%, giá nguyên liệu thô tăng 1.6% so với năm

14 1. World economy 1.2. Commodity market USD/kg World gold prices, 10/2015 3/2018 USD/ounce Sources: VIRAC, goldprice.org The gold price continued to reach the peak in Q1/2018. One of the factors that made gold prices rise in 3M/2018 : 14

15 1. World economy 1.2. Commodity market World oil prices rose in 2017 USD/barrel World crude oil price, /2018 Oil prices depend on the interaction between supply and demand on the international market. OPEC forecasts world oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels a day in 2018, Sources: VIRAC, World Bank 15

16 Content 2. Vietnam economy 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents 2.3 Operation of investment channels 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2.5 Risks and Forecasts 16

17 2.1 Economic growth GDP Gross domestic product in Q1/2018 is estimated to increase by 6.81% compared to of which increased 5.15% in Q1; 6.28% in Q2; 7.46% in Q3; 7.65% in Q4. % GDP growth rate by quarters, 2015-Q1/2018 GDP per capita has risen strongly in the past few years. Trillion VND Sources: VIRAC, GSO GDP at current prices and GDP per capita, 2013-Q1/2018 USD Sources: VIRAC, GSO 17

18 2.1 Economic growth GDP The service sector has made an ever-increasing contribution by focusing on investment and development of service branches with potential advantages. GDP structure by current prices, Q1/2018e Sources: VIRAC, GSO Contribution to the growth of the economic sectors in the firse Second place was the industry sector with the proportion of 33.34%. Percentage point quarter, Sources: VIRAC, GSO 18

19 2.1 Economic growth Production For the first quarter of 2018, the Index-Industry Products (IIP) increased by 9.4% compared to the same period of 2017 Index-Industry Products and Purchasing Managers Index, July/2015 March/2018 According to the latest Nikkei and IHS Markit reports, Vietnam's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the first three months of 2018 continued to grow from the end of 2017 due to business conditions. continues to improve in Vietnam: Sources: VIRAC, GSO, Nikkei, Markit Growth of industries in the first quarter, Sources: VIRAC, GSO 19

20 2.1 Economic growth Production Trillion VND Agriculture, forestry, and fishery production value (compared prices in 2010), Sources: VIRAC, GSO In Q1/2018, the production of agriculture, forestry and fishery are forecasted to reaach. The growth of the agricultural sector in Q1/2018 shows that the trend of change in product structure within the industry in the direction of investing in products with high economic value has brought the efficiency. 20

21 2.1 Economic growth Production Trading activities of services in 3/2018 (months after Lunar New Year) tended to decrease compared to last month. % Growth in total retail sales of commodity and consuming services, 2011-Q1/2018 Despite low growth in the first months of the year, consuming demand has improved significantly, contributing to GDP growth in the last two quarters of the year. Revenue from accommodation and catering services increased due to the increase in international visitors and domestic tourism this year Trillion VND Retail sales of commodity, 2011 Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GSO Sources: VIRAC, GSO 21

22 2.1 Economic growth Consumption Consumer Confidence Index, 2014 Q4/2017 Consumer confidence index in Vietnam decreased marginally in the fourth quarter of Sources: VIRAC, Nielsen According to the report of the General Statistics Office, the production index of processing and manufacturing industry in Q1/2018 increased 114.5% over the same period in 2016, % The production index of processing and manufacturing industry, 2012 Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GSO 22

23 2.1 Economic growth Investment Total social investment capital implemented in Q1/2018 at current prices is estimated at VND 1,667.4 trillion, % Rate of development of social investment capital implemented increase by current prices, Until Q1/2018, there are 126 countries and territories with investment projects in Vietnam, Sources: VIRAC, GSO Structure of social investment captial, Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GSO 23

24 2.1 Economic growth Investment State investment Allocation of implementing capital in the central area, Q1/2018 Billion VND Non-state investment (Private) Sources: VIRAC, GSO Enterprise situation in the first three months, Sources: VIRAC, GSO 24

25 2.1 Economic growth Investment Foreign direct investment FDI in Q1/2018 has had a strong growth Billion USD FDI capital, 2015-Q1/2018 A number of major projects are licensed in Q1/2018. FDI attraction by sectors, Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, FIA Sources: VIRAC, FIA 25

26 2.1 Economic growth Import and export Total value of exports and imports of Vietnam reached billion USD in the first quarter of Billion USD Commodity export-import, 2015 Q1/2018 Billion USD Contribution of FDI to import and export, Q1/2018e Sources: VIRAC, GDVC Vietnam's import and export in Q1/2018 still heavily depends on FDI inflows. Sources: VIRAC, FIA 26

27 2.1 Economic growth Import and export The most exported commodity, Q1/2018 Billion USD Structure of exported commodity groups, Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GDVC Sources: VIRAC, GDVC In Q1/2018, phones and components are the most exported items Main export markets of Vietnam, Q1/2018 Vietnam's main export market in 2017 continues to be the United States. Sources: VIRAC, GDVC 27

28 2.1 Economic growth Import and export Structure of imported commodity group, Q1/2018 Billion USD The most imported commodity, Q1/2017 Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GDVC Computer products, electronic products and components have a total import value in 2017 reached Sources: VIRAC, GDVC Main import markets of Vietnam, Q1/2018 China continues to be Vietnam's largest import market Sources: VIRAC, GDVC 28

29 2.1 Economic growth CPI Consumer price index (CPI) in Q1/2018 has a lot of changes. Monthly CPI fluctuation, /2018 The main reason for the increase of CPI in Q1/2018 : Sources: VIRAC, GSO Some factors restrain CPI in Q1/2018: 29

30 2.1 Economic growth Monetary policy Trillion VND Total payment methods, /2018 Total payment methods up to November 1/2018 was VND 8,062.5 trillion, Sources: VIRAC, SBV The proportion of cash / total payment methods of the economy tends to decrease, Bank cards continue to develop, cards issued in terms of the number and value transactions have continued to grow steadily. 30

31 2.1 Economic growth Monetary policy VND/USD exchange rate, /2018 The VND / USD exchange ratethe VND / USD exchange rate was stable and supported by abundant foreign currency. Sources: VIRAC, SBV 31

32 2.1 Economic growth Monetary policy Regulations on the current compulsory reserve ratio Types of CI VND deposits Foreign currency deposits Sources: VIRAC, MOF In 2017, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) determined to continue to actively and flexibly control the monetary policy and closely coordinate with the fiscal and other macroeconomic policies in order to stabilize the macro balance and control inflation, support economic growth at a reasonable level 32

33 2.1 Economic growth Fiscal policy State budget revenues and expenditures Trillion VND State budget revenues, Q1/2018. By 2017, state budget expenditures will be basically implemented on schedule, except for development investment due to low capital disbursement for the construction investment. Trillion VND State budget expenditures, Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, GSO Sources: VIRAC, GSO 33

34 2.1 Economic growth Fiscal policy Debt situation in Vietnam, Trillion VND State budget overspending (excluding principal payments) compared to GDP in 2017 stood at 3.5%, the lowest level in the nearest four years. Sources: VIRAC, MOF Pressure on interest payments in the country also decreased due to: Allocation of State budget, 2018 Sources: VIRAC, MOF 34

35 2.1 Economic growth Banking system By the end of 2017, the total assets of financial institutions in Vietnam is estimated at 200% of GDP, Proportion of capital supply for the economy from the capital market and the system of credit institutions, Some indicators of the financial system in Vietnam, 2017 Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Capital aquedacy level of the financial system(%), 2017 The financial system ensures good ability to provide capital for the economy. Profitability of the financial system (%), 2017 Sources: VIRAC, NFSC 35

36 2.1 Economic growth Banking system Results of business activities of credit institutions are positive, profit grows sharply in 2017 Profitability of credit institutions system, Evaluation of ROA, ROE of the credit institutions system in Vietnam compared to some countries, 2017 Net interest margin, Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Sources: VIRAC, NFSC 36

37 2.1 Economic growth Banking system average was quite stable Mobilization interest rate on Lending interest rates and mobilizing interest rates, 2012-Q1/2018 % Although the liquidity of the system is quite good, the macro conditions are relatively favorable, interest rates are down but not as expected. Sources: VIRAC, SBV Interbank interest rates, 1/2016-3/2018 % Sources: VIRAC, SBV 37

38 2.1 Economic growth Banking system Mobilized capital includes customer deposits and valuable papers (GTCG) which are growing more slowly than in Capital mobilization by currency, /2018 The rate of short-term capital used for medium, long term loans of the credit institutions system decreased slightly, Sources: VIRAC, SBV The rate of credit extension compared to mobilized capital, Aug/2016- Mar/2018 Sources: VIRAC, SBV 38

39 2.1 Economic growth Banking system By Q1/2017, credit growth is estimated at 19.3%, which has positively supported economic growth. % Credit growth in the first quarter, e The credit structure by the industries changed positively. Sources: VIRAC, GSO Market share of credit, 2017 Sources: VIRAC, NFSC 39

40 2.1 Economic growth Banking system % Non-performing loan ratio in credit, e According to the Committee, the NPL ratio of the credit institutions was about 9.5%, decreasing sharply from 11.9% at the end of Source: VIRAC, SBV Ratio of credit loss provision/bad debt, e The balance in credit loss provision of credit institutions has increased sharply. Sources: VIRAC, NFSC 40

41 2.1 Economic growth Banking system In early 2017, the SBV issued a directive aimed at restructure financial institutions and addressing bad debts, bringing the banking sector into the Basel II framework and coming closer to international standards. Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, e Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Banks are under pressure to raise capital to meet the capital adequacy requirements of Basel II standards. 41

42 2.1 Economic growth Banking system Situation of banking restructuring Time Weak banks Restructuring plans Results Source: VIRAC 42

43 Content 2. Vietnam economy 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents 2.3 Operation of investment channels 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2.5 Risks and Forecasts 43

44 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Until the end of Q1/2018, Vietnam has signed, implemented, and is negotiating a total of 17 FTAs. Accession to international trade agreements brings opportunities and challenges for domestic firms. Vietnam trade integration process from 1995 to present 44

45 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): 45

46 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): ASEAN Economy Community (AEC): Free Trade Agreements FTA 46

47 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts In addition to these free trade agreements, Vietnam is also a member of two major economic forums like: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM): 47

48 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts Execution process of the agreements in the FTA group No. Agreements Member Execution process Partners 1 ATIGA ASEAN 2 ACFTA ASEAN - China 3 AKFTA ASEAN South Korea 48

49 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts No, Agreements Members Execution process Partners 4 AJCEP ASEAN - Japan 5 VJEPA Vietnam- Japan 49

50 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts No. Agreements Members Execution process Partners 6 AANZFTA ASEAN - Australia/ New Zealand 7 AIFTA ASEAN India 8 VCFTA Vietnam Chile 50

51 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents Agreed trade agreements and impacts No, Agreemetns Members Execution process Partners 9 VKFTA Vietnam South Korea 10 VN- EAEUFTA Vietnam- Eurasian Economic Union 51

52 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents New issued legal documents and decrees Investment 52

53 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents New issued legal documents and decrees The industrial revolution 4.0 ( industry 4.0) is on the onset and will affect all socio-economic sectors, while completely transforming the current production and management system. Industry 4.0 offers enormous opportunities to take advantage and at the same time is the challenge of being left behind and eliminated. 53

54 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents New issued legal documents and decrees Enterprises 54

55 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents New issued legal documents and decrees Tax - Charges - Fees 55

56 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents New issued legal documents and decrees Decision 2369 / QD-BTC issued by the Ministry of Finance on November 16, 2017 stipulating the promulgation of administrative procedures abolished in the field of tax management under the authorization of the Ministry of Finance. 56

57 Content 2. Vietnam economy 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents 2.3 Operation of investment channels 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2.5 Risks and Forecasts 57

58 2.3 Operation of investment channel Bonds The winning value of bonds through the months, 12/2017-3/2018 Billion VND Government bonds in the primary market also attracted the attention of large investors with VND 9,953 billion of bonds successfully mobilized in December. Sources: VIRAC, HNX Bond market share in circulation, 3/2018 In 2017, it can be seen that the State Treasury has been relatively successful in issuing long-term bonds of 20 years and 30 years with a lower winning yield. Sources: VIRAC, HNX 58

59 2.3 Operation of investment channel Bonds Bond structure by maturity, Q1/ is the year having the most winning bid volume of long-term bonds. Sources: VIRAC, HNX % Volatility of bond yields, /2018 Sources: VIRAC, VBMA 59

60 2.3 Operation of investment channel Bonds Billion VND Secondary bond market, 2016-Mar/2018 Sources: VIRAC, HNX In Q1/2017, the trend in Repo transaction value is increasing. Vietnam's gorvenment bond market in recent years has not only achieved the growth in transaction size, but has been developing in depth. 60

61 2.3 Operation of investment channel Bonds Trillion VND Value of bonds issued by corporation, e Mobilization of capital through corporation bond issuance in 2017 is about VND 100 trillion, down 15% from Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Corporation bond issuance in 2017: 2018 is expected to be a strong year for the Vietnam bond market 61

62 2.3 Operation of investment channel Shares Billion VND/session Average transaction value, Jul/2016-Mar/2018 Sources: VIRAC, SSC In March 2018, the total transaction value on the stock market reached over VND billion per session, increasing by 4.8% compared to February, up 33.4% over the same period in 2017, 62

63 2.3 Operation of investment channel Shares Following the uptrend of 2016, VN-Index and HNX Index continuously set new high prices. Million shares Trading volume and value on HOSE, /2018 Billion VND The transaction on HNX in the first 3 months of 2018 has a rapid increase in both volume of shares as well as total transaction value. The market trend in 2017 is on the upward trend, Sources: VIRAC, HSX Trading volume and value on HNX, /2018 Million shares Billion VND Sources: VIRAC, HNX 63

64 2.3 Operation of investment channel Shares Movements of stocks over the months, 12/2017-3/2018 The capitalization value of UPCoM continues to outperform HNX. Sources: VIRAC, Bloomberg Capitalization size of VNINDEX and HNX, 2/2017-3/2018 Rising prices, new listing activity have contributed mainly to the increase in market capitalization. Sources: VIRAC, HNX, Bloomberg 64

65 2.3 Operation of investment channel Shares Billion VND Foreign net transaction value, 2013-Q1/2018 In Q1/2018, foreign cash flow still plays the role of leading and orienting the market, especially at the end of the year. Sources: VIRAC, NFSC Foreign capital flows in some Countries, 3/2018 Country March/2018 (million USD) Quarter 1/2018 (million USD) Foreign capital inflows into the stock market surged in 2017 following the general trend of Asia. Sources: VIRAC, NFSC 65

66 2.3 Operation of investment channel Commodity market Million VND/amount of gold Gold prices in Vietnam, 9/2017 3/2018 Gold prices increased sharply in mid-january 2018 mainly due to the fluctuation of gold prices in the world. Sources: VIRAC, SJC.com.vn In Q1/2018, the domestic gold market is affected by the international market. 66

67 2.3 Operation of investment channel Commodity market Domestic gasoline prices in the second half of Q1/2018 fluctuated and remained at the end of the quarter. VND/liter Petrol price movement, /2018 Sources: VIRAC, MOF The agreement to cut OPEC oil production by the end of 2016 has driven world oil to maintain steady growth in

68 Content 2. Vietnam economy 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents 2.3 Operation of investment channels 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2.5 Risks and Forecasts 68

69 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions Continuing the growth trend from previous years, M & A activity in Q1/2018 is quite exciting. The number and value of M & A deals, M/2018e Billion USD Sources: VIRAC, IMAA Structure of M&A by industries, M/2018 main investors in the Vietnamese market. Thailand, Singapore, Japan, South Korea are still the Sources: VIRAC, IMAA 69

70 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2018 is considered a boom year for M & A of real estate projects with many large M & A deals on the real estate market. Number of deals and average transaction value of some countries, 2T/2018 Million USD Sources: VIRAC, IMAA In terms of M&A trend in 2018, 70

71 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions Number of equitized enterprises, e Sources: VIRAC, GO In 2017, 45 enterprises have been approved by the competent authorities for equitization, According to the plan approved by the Government, in the period of , the whole country must complete the equitization of 127 stateowned enterprises (SOEs) 71

72 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2018 is the fourth year to promote the divestment, equitization of stateowned enterprises associated with the stock market. Billion VND Capital mobilization by IPO, 2012-Q1/2018 Sources: VIRAC, HNX Some big IPO in 2018 Sources: VIRAC, VDSC 72

73 Content 2. Vietnam economy 2.1 Economic growth 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents 2.3 Operation of investment channels 2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions 2.5 Risks and Forecasts 73

74 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Risks Inflation risks: Risks of medium-term growth prospects due to slow pace of restructuring: Risk of influence by global political instability 74

75 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Risks Risk of exchange rate fluctuation Risk of delaying implementation and fiscal tightening Risk of climate change and environmental pollution 75

76 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Forecasts Forecast of world economic prospects in

77 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Forecasts Forecast of Vietnam economic prospects in

78 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Forecasts In terms of inflation control In terms of implementing the estimation for State budget 78

79 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Forecasts In terms of credit to the economy In terms of the liquidity of the banking system In terms of the interest rates 79

80 2.5 Risks and Forecasts Forecasts In terms of the foreign exchange market In terms of the stock market 80

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