PURPLEPOLL. December 2011 Edition WHY THE PURPLEPOLL?

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1 December Edition PURPLEPOLL WHY THE PURPLEPOLL? In, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. Produced by Purple Strategies, the PurplePoll will offer balanced analysis from our bipartisan team. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] or Bruce Haynes [bruce.haynes@purplestrategies.com], at --.

2 President Obama has opened up a narrow lead, but his job approval numbers are still troubling. Gingrich is slipping. President Obama has seen marginal improvements against both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich over the past month. In a head-to-head against Romney, he has opened up a %-% lead (compared to a %-% tie in the November Purple- Poll.) Obama made larger gains against Newt Gingrich, now leading by six points (%-%), compared to only two points in November (%-%). Obama holds a small lead among independents in Purple states. He holds a four point advantage against Romney (% to %) and a point lead against Gingrich (% to %). He won independent voters by a substantial margin in, and he will need to build on these leads to win reelection. President Obama s job approval ratings have remained mostly the same in Purple states over the past month, with % approving of the job he is doing (no change from last month) and % disapproving (up from %). These numbers are troubling for a presidential incumbent, as no modern incumbent has been re-elected with ratings at such low levels. One other bit of good news for the President is this: for the first time since September, President Obama s approval rating is now about the same with independent voters (% favorable, % unfavorable) as voters overall (% favorable, % unfavorable). In past months, he has performed worse among Independents. However, these numbers are still troubling for his re-election. Top Two Republican Challengers Not Well-Liked While the president no doubt faces substantial challenges to re-election, the top two Republican contenders face significant challenges of their own. In a general election scenario, neither are particularly well-regarded in the Purple States. Mitt Romney is rated favorably by just % of the electorate, with % holding an unfavorable view. This represents a net percent net decline since the last PurplePoll. Newt Gingrich has seen a more dramatic drop in favorability since the last PurplePoll. His favorable rating has shrunk by three points (to %) and his unfavorable rating has increased by five points (to %). This change has been particularly notable among Republican voters. Forty-nine percent (%) now have a favorable view of Gingrich and % have an unfavorable view. In November, that split was %/% - a net drop of points. Jeb Bush v. Obama: What if? December Since some Republican commentators continue to clamor for an alternative to the current Republican field, we included Jeb Bush in this month s PurplePoll to measure the current Republican candidates against a popular former Republican governor who is not in the race. Though Governor Bush carries the assets and liabilities associated with the Bush brand, and has of course not run a campaign, he nevertheless runs just as strongly in a general election trial heat as the current Republican field. He trails President Obama by just five points (%-%) in the critical Purple States that will determine the election s outcome. Governor Bush is well liked among Republicans in these swing states % offer favorable ratings. Importantly, he has the lowest unfavorable number among GOP swing state voters: %, which is points lower than Gingrich, and points lower than Romney. Gingrich is the least liked of the three among independent voters (% favorable, % unfavorable). A closer look at the general election in Iowa and New Hampshire On the eve of the first two critical Republican nomination contests, the PurplePoll conducted full samples of the Iowa and New Hampshire electorates to explore the impact of the GOP nomination campaign on the general election. These two states are critical swing states, and provide a glimpse into how the Republican primary contest may be impacting voter preferences for the general election. Does Iowa GOP infighting benefit Obama? The battle among Republican candidates in Iowa appears to be harming their standing with voters in this key swing state. Just % of Iowa voters have a favorable view of Newt Gingrich, with % holding an unfavorable view. Romney s favorability ratings are only slightly better: % favorable, % unfavorable. All three Republicans tested underperform against President Obama in Iowa, compared to their standing across the electorate in Purple states. Obama leads Gingrich %-%; Gingrich s support is six points lower in Iowa than in the Purple states overall (where he garners % against Obama). Perhaps most importantly, President Obama leads Gingrich by points among Iowa s independent voters: %-%. The result for Mitt Romney is similar: he trails President Obama %-% in Iowa, and trails among Independents by points (%-%). Jeb Bush performs at about the same level among Iowa voters as the other candidates, trailing Obama at %-%. Iowa is currently ground zero in the battle for the Republican nomination, with more advertising and public presence than other states. At this early stage, the net impact does not appear to be positive for any potential Republican presidential candidate among the broader electorate. New Hampshire: Romney, Obama In New Hampshire, Mitt Romney leads President Obama, % to %. Romney holds this lead in spite of the fact that his personal ratings are net negative (% favorable and % unfavorable) among those same voters. Newt Gingrich fares much worse against President Obama in New Hampshire, trailing by eight points (%-%). Jeb Bush trails Obama by just five points (%-%) in New Hampshire, the same as his national performance. At this stage, Iowa has seen a barrage of negative ads blanketing the airwaves on the Republican side. While targeted to Republican caucus-goers, the ads may be creating negative noise for the GOP among the general electorate. As the campaign moves North to New Hampshire, it will be interesting to see if similar trends hold in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses, when advertising volume increases in the Granite State. The PurplePoll will be there. WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These states were won by President Obama en route to his electoral votes. Since, nine of these states swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by points or less at least once since. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in. Updated regularly throughout the election cycle, the Purple- Poll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election. In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data in regional state clusters: The Wild West (CO, NV, NM), The Heartland (IA, MN, WI), The Rust Belt (NH, OH, PA) and The Southern Swing (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. The poll was fielded /-/, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size= likely voters, margin of error +/-.. With regional oversamples, the margin of error for each regional cluster is no more than +/-.. Sample size in Iowa and New Hampshire is, with a margin of error of +/-. for each. ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms National Media and Issue & Image to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan. For more: ANALYSIS For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

3 December OVERALL: Right direction: % (November: %) Wrong track: % (November: %) : % (November: %) Approve: % (November: %) Disapprove: % (November: %) : % (November: %) : Obama vs. Jeb Bush Obama: % Bush: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % : % OVERALL The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia Favorable: % (November: %) Unfavorable: % (November: %) : % (November: %) Favorable: % (November: %) Unfavorable: % (November: %) : % (November: %) Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % (November: %) Romney: % (November: %) : % (November: %) : Obama vs. Gingrich Obama: % (November: %) Gingrich: % (November: %) : % (November: %) Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % Don t know: % Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

4 December By Region of IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE : Obama vs. Jeb Bush : Obama vs. Jeb Bush Right direction: % Obama: % Right direction: % Obama: % Wrong track: % Bush: % Wrong track: % Bush: % : % : % : % : % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % : % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % BY REGION No impact: % No impact: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

5 December By Region of The Wild West The Heartland : Obama vs. Jeb Bush : Obama vs. Jeb Bush Right direction: % Obama: % Right direction: % Obama: % Wrong track: % Bush: % Wrong track: % Bush: % : % : % : % : % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % : % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % BY REGION No impact: % No impact: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

6 December By Region of The Rust Belt The Southern Swing : Obama vs. Jeb Bush : Obama vs. Jeb Bush Right direction: % Obama: % Right direction: % Obama: % Wrong track: % Bush: % Wrong track: % Bush: % : % : % : % : % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Very closely: % Somewhat closely: % Not too closely: % Not at all closely: % : % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Better: % Worse: % No impact: % : % Better: % Worse: % BY REGION No impact: % No impact: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Favorable: % Don t know: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Unfavorable: % : % Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % Ron Paul: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % : Obama vs. Gingrich Newt Gingrich: % Mitt Romney: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Obama: % Ron Paul: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % Gingrich: % Rick Perry: % : % : % : % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

7 December The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia Questionnaire of Complete Questionnaire % % % States Region Gender Party Education Total Nov Sept IA NH Male Female GOP Ind Dem Non-Coll Coll+ Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? Approve Disapprove Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? Favorable Unfavorable Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Newt Gingrich? Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Jeb Bush? If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Barack Obama Mitt Romney QUESTIONNAIRE If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama Newt Gingrich Fielded /-/, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total N size= likely voters, margin of error +/.. Regional margins of errors (with oversamples) are +/-.. The same is true in Iowa and New Hampshire. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.

8 December The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia Questionnaire of Complete Questionnaire % % % States Region Gender Party Education If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and former Governor of Florida, Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama Jeb Bush Total Nov Sept IA NH Male Female GOP Ind Dem Non-Coll Coll+ How closely are you following the Republican presidential nomination campaign? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely Unfavorable Overall, has what you ve heard from Republican candidates during the nomination process made you feel better or worse about having a Republican president in? Better Worse No impact Has what you ve heard from the Republican candidates made you feel better or worse about President Obama s time in office? Of the following candidates for the Republican nomination, who do you think has run the most NEGATIVE campaign to date? Better Worse No impact Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry QUESTIONNAIRE Of the following candidates for the Republican nomination, who do you think has run the most POSITIVE campaign to date? Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Fielded /-/, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total N size= likely voters, margin of error +/.. Regional margins of errors (with oversamples) are +/-.. The same is true in Iowa and New Hampshire. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at --.