Comparison and Selection among Alternatives Created By Eng.Maysa Gharaybeh

Transcription

1 Comparison and Selection among Alternatives Created By Eng.Maysa Gharaybeh

2 Quiz 1, 2, 7, 15,19, 20, 22, 26, 36, 40.

3 The objective of chapter 6 is to evaluate correctly capital investment alternatives when the time value of money is a key influence.

4 Making decisions means comparing alternatives. In this chapter we examine feasible design alternatives. The decisions considered are those selecting from among a set of mutually exclusive alternatives (when selecting one excludes the choice of any of the others).

5 Principle 2 from Chapter 1. The alternative that requires the minimum investment of capital and produces satisfactory functional results will be chosen(the base alternative) unless the incremental capital associated with an alternative having a larger investment can be justified with respect to its incremental benefits. The alternative requiring the least investment is the base alternative.

6 For alternatives that have a larger investment than the base If the extra benefits obtained by investing additional capital are better than those that could be obtained from investment of the same capital elsewhere in the company at the MARR, the investment should be made. (Please note that there are some cautions when considering more than two alternatives, which will be examined later.)

7 Types of Alternatives Investment alternatives (capital & Revenue) Cost alternatives (Negative & salvage value) same expected revenue

8 Ensuring Comparable Basis Rule 1. When revenues and other economic benefits are present(investment alternatives ), select alternative that has greatest positive equivalent worth at i %= MARR% and satisfies project requirements. Rule 2. When revenues and economic benefits are not present(cost alternatives ), select alternative that minimizes cost.

9 In Other Words: Select the alternative that gives you the most money! For investment alternatives the PW of all cash flows must be positive, at the MARR, to be attractive. Select the alternative with the largest PW. For cost alternatives the PW of all cash flows will be negative. Select the alternative with the largest (smallest in absolute value) PW.

10 Example: Investment Alternative Use a MARR of 10% and useful life of 5 years to select between the investment alternatives below. A Alternative Capital investment -$100,000 -$125,000 Annual revenues less expenses $34,000 $41,000 B Both alternatives are attractive, but Alternative B provides a greater present worth, so is better economically.

11 Cost alternative example Use a MARR of 12% and useful life of 4 years to select between the cost alternatives below. C Alternative Capital investment -$80,000 -$60,000 Annual expenses -$25,000 -$30,000 D Alternative D costs less than Alternative C, it has a greater PW, so is better economically.

12 Investment Alternative PW(10%)A= 9,738$ PW(10%)B= 10,131$ PW(10%)B-A = 393$

13 Cost Alternative with selvage value PW(10%)C= -477,077$ PW(10%)D= -463,607$ PW(10%)D-C = 13,470$

14 Determining the study period. A study period (or planning horizon) is the time period over which mutually exclusive alternatives are compared, and it must be appropriate for the decision situation. mutually exclusive alternatives can have equal lives (in which case the study period used is these equal lives), or they can have unequal lives, and at least one does not match the study period. The equal life case is straightforward.

15 Useful Lives of all Alternatives is Equal to the Study Period 1. Equivalent worth methods 2. Rate of return methods

16 1.Equivalent Worth Methods If : PW A (i) < PW B (i) Then AW A (i) < AW B (i) and FW A (i) < FW B (i) Select Alternative B

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22 Example: When lives are equal adjustments to cash flows are not required. The MEAs can be compared by directly comparing their equivalent worth (PW, FW, or AW) calculated using the MARR. The decision will be the same regardless of the equivalent worth method you use. For a MARR of 12%, select from among the MEAs below. Alternatives A B C D Capital investment -$150,000 -$85,000 -$75,000 -$120,000 Annual revenues $28,000 $16,000 $15,000 $22,000 Annual expenses -$1,000 -$550 -$500 -$700 Market Value (EOL) $20,000 $10,000 $6,000 $11,000 Life (years)

23 Selecting the best alternative. Present worth analysis select Alternative A (but C is close). Annual worth analysis the decision is the same.

24 Using rates of return is another way to compare alternatives.

25 The return on investment (rate of return) is a popular measure of investment performance. Selecting the alternative with the largest rate of return can lead to incorrect decisions do not compare the IRR of one alternative to the IRR of another alternative. Remember, the base alternative must be attractive (rate of return greater than the MARR), and the additional investment in other alternatives must itself make a satisfactory rate of return on that increment.

26 The Incremental Investment Analysis Procedure. Arrange (rank order) the feasible alternatives based on increasing capital investment. Establish a base alternative. Cost alternatives the first alternative is the base. Investment alternatives the first acceptable alternative (IRR>MARR) is the base.

27 Iteratively evaluate differences (incremental cash flows) between alternatives until all have been considered. a. If incremental cash flow between next alternative and current alternative is acceptable, choose the next. b. Repeat, and select as the preferred alternative the last one for which the incremental cash flow was acceptable

28 Example 6-4 A B C D E F Capital 900 1,500 2,500 4,000 5,000 7,000 Annual R Annual E ,125 1,425 IRR 10.6% 13% 9.6% 19.1% 18.3% 15.6% The alternative is arranged based on increasing capital investment. IRR for alternative (C) 9.6<MARR(10%) Then C is rejected

29 A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital 900 Δ(Annual R Annual E) 150 IRRΔ 10.6% Is increment justified Yes A is the base alternative then we will compare A with B

30 A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital Δ(Annual R Annual E) IRRΔ 10.6% 16.4% Is increment justified Yes Yes B is better then A because the additional capital investment gives IRR >MARR(16.4%>10%) Then we will compare B with D since C is rejected from the beginning

31 A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital ,500 Δ(Annual R Annual E) IRRΔ 10.6% 16.4% 22.6% Is increment justified Yes Yes Yes D is better then B because the additional capital investment gives IRR >MARR(22.6%>10%) Then we will compare D with E

32 A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital ,500 1,000 Δ(Annual R Annual E) IRRΔ 10.6% 16.4% 22.6% 15.1% Is increment justified Yes Yes Yes Yes E is better then D because the additional capital investment gives IRR >MARR(15.1%>10%) Then we will compare E with F

33 A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital ,500 1,000 2,000 Δ(Annual R Annual E) IRRΔ 10.6% 16.4% 22.6% 15.1% 8.1% Is increment justified Yes Yes Yes Yes No F is NOT better then E because the additional capital investment gives IRR < MARR(8.1%>10%) Then E is the best alternative

34 Three Errors Common To Incremental Investment Analysis Procedure Applied To IRR Choosing the feasible Alternative with: 1. the highest overall IRR on total cash flow (choose D) A B C D E F Capital 900 1,500 2,500 4,000 5,000 7,000 Annual R Annual E ,125 1,425 IRR 10.6% 13% 9.6% 19.1% 18.3% 15.6%

35 Three Errors Common To Incremental Investment Analysis Procedure Applied To IRR Choosing the feasible Alternative with: 2.the highest IRR on an incremental capital investment(choose D-B instead of E-D) A Δ(B-A) Δ(D-B) Δ(E-D) Δ(F-E) ΔCapital ,500 1,000 2,000 Δ(Annual R Annual E) IRRΔ 10.6% 16.4% 22.6% 15.1% 8.1% Is increment justified Yes Yes Yes Yes No

36 Three Errors Common To Incremental Investment Analysis Procedure Applied To IRR 3.the largest capital investment that has an IRR greater than or equal to the MARR (choose F) A B C D E F Capital 900 1,500 2,500 4,000 5,000 7,000 Annual R Annual E ,125 1,425 IRR 10.6% 13% 9.6% 19.1% 18.3% 15.6%

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40 Incremental analysis must be used with rate of return methods to ensure the best alternative is selected

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43 Comparing MEAs with Unequal lives. Repeatability assumption Coterminated assumption

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48 Rate of Return with unequal lifes A Capital investment $3,500 $5,00 Annual cash flow 1,255 1,480 Useful life 4 6 When the repeatability applies 1.we need to find the AW of each alternative over it s own useful life 2.Find the interest rate that make them equal AW A (i*%) = AW B (i*%) -3,500(A/i*%,4) +1,255 = -5,000(A/i*%,6) +1,480 Trail and error i= 26% >MARR (10%) the increment is justified and B is preferred B

49 Useful life > Study period The imputed Market Value Technique i. e find the estimated market value at any year that is before the end of the useful life MV T = PW at EOY T of remaining CR amounts + PW at EOY T of original market value at end of useful life

50 Example If the capital investment is 47,600 useful life = 9 years market value at the end of 9 years = $5,000 find the market value et the end of 5 years if MARR = 20% Step 1 : CR = 47,000 (A/P,20%,9) 5,000(A/F,20%,9) Step 2 : PW at EOY 5 of the remaining CR PW(20%) CR = CR (P/A, 20%,4) = $29,949 Step 3 : PW at EOY 5 of MV 9 PW(20%) MV = 5,000 (P/F, 20%,4) = $2,412 The estimated market value at EOY 5 = MV 5 = PW(20%) CR + PW(20%) MV = 29, ,412 = 32,361