New gtld Statistics & Business Implications

Transcription

1 New gtld Statistics & Business Implications CHRISTA TAYLOR BERRY COBB

2 Historical Significance of the Journal Entry

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4 Overview What We Learned From Legacy & New gtld statistics Most Successful gtlds New gtld Tiers Volumes & Values new gtlds can expect Correlation between Prices, Volumes, etc. Impact on registry financials Business models considerations additional value adds/value proposition over registrations New gtld Projections for 2015/2016 Forecasts & Predictions New gtld Drafting Plan Impact on the industry Tier 3 & Tier 4 Today / Tomorrow

5 What We Learned In 2014

6 1/1/2014 1/26/2014 2/20/2014 3/17/2014 4/11/2014 5/6/2014 5/31/2014 6/25/2014 7/20/2014 8/14/2014 9/8/ /3/ /28/ /22/ /17/2014 1/1/2014 1/24/2014 2/16/2014 3/11/2014 4/3/2014 4/26/2014 5/19/2014 6/11/2014 7/4/2014 7/27/2014 8/19/2014 9/11/ /4/ /27/ /19/ /12/2014 1/1/2014 1/24/2014 2/16/2014 3/11/2014 4/3/2014 4/26/2014 5/19/2014 6/11/2014 7/4/2014 7/27/2014 8/19/2014 9/11/ /4/ /27/ /19/ /12/ Legacy gtld Stats.com Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 16,000, , ,000 Jan - 111,843,404 Dec - 115,312, % 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, , , , , , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, aero coop jobs biz info mobi net org asia name pro tel xxx museum name post pro travel

7 New gtld Stats ,000, ,500, ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 No 2014 GA Launch Data: 46 - Brand 40 - Generic 06 - Geo ,500, ,000, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum of Delegation Sum of GA Sum of Registrations 500,000 0

8 2014 gtld Program in Review Application View Unique String View Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will Not Proceed Withdrawn Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will Not Proceed Withdrawn Brand Generic Geographic Brand Generic Geographic *Applied = yet to be settled **471 Delegated as 4 Jan per ICANN ***162 applications in contention *87 unique strings in Contention (includes.corp,.home,.mail)

9 Most successful New gtlds Too early to tell We re not picking favorites Execution is key Primary Criteria: Quantity of Registrations Total Revenue / Profit Use Alexa Ranking SEO results Renewal Rates

10 New gtld Tiers

11 The Caveats.XYZ,.BERLIN,.OVH have free registrations Free registrations can be a viable business plan but as we have no viable, reliable renewal statistics they have been excluded from any calculations Expectation that renewal rates from free registrations will vary be from regular paid registrations Many registries have registered their own names thereby inflating the number of true, arms-length third-party registrations Legitimate reasons for registries to do this include increasing the ability for potential registrants to find and purchase premium names TLDs that have recently launched have been excluded to eliminate the landrush upswing

12 gtld Results based on Tiers The 80/20 rule doesn t quite apply. 80/20 Rule As there are significant insight to be gained by looking at the new gtlds in four tiers ended with 472 delegated new gtlds TLDs in General Availability at the end of December is 271 with an average registration volume of 9,414 Volume Revenues Average daily registration volume of 45 33% 34% 35% 36% 37%

13 club guru link xn--55qx5d company xn--io0a7i website bayern directory sexy gallery land systems education paris estate voting media wien xn--80adxhks wiki city lawyer ruhr buzz kaufen immobilien gift cool boutique pink institute attorney care community repair camera tools plumbing camp cologne foundation pictures watch diamonds nagoya codes build cab clinic futbol ink moe bar gratis partners productions xn--80asehdb vision dating condos catering supply market tienda finance fish xn--ngbc5azd brussels insure soy financial fail gal guitars furniture luxury associates mortgage democrat cooking dentist fishing TLDs by Volume 10,000 9,000 Average Daily Volume 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Average/Median Volume 2014 by Quartile: 1: 29.2k / 18.3k 2: 6.8k / 6.7k 3: 3k / 3k 4: 1.2k / $1.2k 2,000 1,000 0

14 xn--ses554g xn--55qx5d nyc xn--fiq228c5hs club today vegas link technology directory academy sexy ruhr buzz photo careers gallery international marketing holdings education holiday consulting audio build kiwi church immobilien ventures diamonds boutique bike shoes plumbing reise digital uno farm xn--80asehdb equipment limo capital tools tax camp loans solar social press finance watch fitness vacations best discount flights insure wtf financial villas surgery productions pink viajes xn--80aswg dance jetzt bid xn--q9jyb4c gratis place vet moda mortgage nagoya industries exposed rest dentist guitars associates vodka fishing engineer gripe juegos TLDs in Terms of Revenues $10,000 Average Revenue per Day $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 Average/Median by Quartile: 1: $325.7 / $ : $80.4 / $75.4 3: $41.9 / $42.1 4: $16.6 / $18.5 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

15 Correlation between Price & Volume? TLD Price Volume Daily Revenue rich $ 1, $ 63,806 $ 245 xn--3bst00m $ $ 62,962 $ 2,518 xn--czru2d $ ,442 $ 1,451,190 $ 7,220 luxury $ ,277 $ 214,528 $ 822 versicherung $ ,213 $ 265,547 $ 2,414 hiv $ $ 33,910 $ 271 reise $ ,236 $ 74,153 $ 511 creditcard $ $ 32,397 $ 266 eus $ ,541 $ 150,935 $ 4,312 gal $ ,521 $ 90,347 $ 2,581 career $ ,101 $ 61,429 $ 480 best $ ,027 $ 46,893 $ 213 ceo $ ,851 $ 82,184 $ 287 investments $ ,666 $ 69,962 $ 514 loans $ ,322 $ 55,516 $ 514 There is a weak negative relationship -0.23

16 Pricing To date, the new gtlds with the highest volumes and values have not improvised by being cheaper. Quartiles Retail Price Median Price 1 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.99

17 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 1 Today Tier 1: Today $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 Volume: 43,235 Registry Price of: $21 Expenses of: $300,000 at a 60% renewal rate $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $4,043 $5,113 $1,000 $1,533 $2,785 $- Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

18 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 2 Today $2,500 Tier 2: Today $2,000 $1,500 Volume: 11,518 Registry Price of: $24 Expenses of: $350,000 at a 60% renewal rate $1,000 $500 $- $(77) $(58) $59 $178 $240 $(500) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

19 New gtld Projections for 2015/2016

20 2015 Registration Forecast - Simple 8,000, ,000 7,000, ,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, , , , , ,000 0 Based on 2014 Results Total Reg Total per Month Linear (Total Reg)

21 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec Registration Forecast - Advanced 12,000,000 10,000,000 y = 16310x - 7E+08 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Based on 2014 Results

22 Other Predictions 2015 Expectation: Registries will advertise in mass once all portfolios have launched their gtlds Renewal rates (optimistic vs realistic) Pricing (up or down) gtlds will start to swap hands Industry Related Stocks (up or down) 2016 brands will start to promote the use of their gtlds - the critical path - when brands start to use their TLDs in advertising is when the common registrant will start to catch on. No new round of gtlds

23 New gtld Drafting Plan

24 Financial Implications Tier 3 and Tier 4 TLDs need to focus efforts on grass roots marketing efforts to increase registrations with minimal expense while waiting for the grass to catch fire Once large brands and portfolio companies marketing begins to take hold, it will be important to draft on these large campaigns that drive registrations Reducing prices does not result in an increase in registrations as show earlier

25 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 3 Today $1,000 Tier 3: Today $800 $600 $400 Volume: 6,795 Registry Price of: $17.75 Expenses of: $250,000 at a 60% renewal rate $200 $- $(200) $(131) $(220) $(265) $(311) $(381) $(400) $(600) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

26 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 3 Tomorrow $1,200 Tier 3: Tomorrow $1,000 $800 $600 To Breakeven, volume: 8,803 Registry Price of: $21.09 Expenses of: $200,000 at a 60% renewal rate $400 $200 $- $(200) $(10) $(64) $(81) $(15) $(49) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

27 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 4 Today Tier 4: Today $400 $300 $200 Volume: 3,524 Registry Price of: $18.53 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate $100 $- $(100) $(200) $(112) $(210) $(294) $(378) $(470) $(300) $(400) $(500) $(600) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

28 Thousands Financial Implications: Tier 4 Tomorrow $800 $700 Tier 4: Tomorrow $600 $500 $400 $300 To Breakeven, volume: 17,795 Registry Price of: $13.00 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate $200 $100 $- $(100) $(200) $(49) $(63) $(40) $(17) $(14) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

29 We re off for questions