DAY S HIGLIGHTS. Issue Previous Current Change Change %
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1 Issue Previous Current Change Change % Philippines 6,540 6, Peso-$ DJIA 15,569 15, SP500 1,762 1, Nasdaq 3,940 3, England 6,726 6, Nikkei 14,396 14,326 (70.06) (0.49) Hong Kong 22,807 22, China 2,134 2,129 (5.01) (0.23) Bonds Yr Yield (0.050) (0.20) Dollar Indx Gold 1, , (8.30) (0.61) Oil (0.80) (0.81) GSCICommod Idx 4, , (15.50) (0.32) Authored by: Juanis G. Barredo VP; Chief Technical Analyst COL Financial Group Inc. (632) Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL s Equity Research Dept as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security. DAY S HIGLIGHTS Philippine Equity Research Oct 30, 2013 Focus Items Issue Highlight Page Stock Watch PNB & MPI 2 DOW Range trade 3 PSEi Range trade (watch resistance) 4 MSCI Phils EPHE Range trade (watch resistance) 5 PHI Range trade (watch support) 6 US markets proceed to move higher with the Dow nearing range highs and with the SP500 and Nasdaq nearing overbought zones Europe was mostly higher while Asia was mixed The Dollar index rallied 0.39% pressing on the Euro and Yen it may also find some effect into the Peso if the Dollar rally firms The Philippines PSEi was mostly sideways up by only 3-pts Trend Watcher: Up Trends & Consolidations Notes: US indices proceed upwards come close to overbought zones; PSEi stands at short term support after a 2.5 day retreat. An moderate advance from US markets should get some motions back to many global markets after staging some profit taking reactions. Eyes will now watch over short term support areas to see if new demand levels can be established strong enough to promote new rally windows. In the Philippines rallies should still be selective and clear tracts of rotation should be displayed. MACD readings for the PSEi remain blunt and this may contribute to confined interest. Moreover we will also be watchful of the Peso as the Dollar index stages some rebound action. The Peso has shelved itself in a tight range close to 43 and seems to be well supported at this zone. The rally in the Dollar may disrupt such levelled action and should adequately watched.
2 16-MA 32-MA 65-MA Down Trendline Break Stock Watch Tech Spotlight --- Page 2 Issue: Phil National Bank (PNB) Price: Recommendation: Buy > Suppt: Resist: / RSI: 59 PNB proceeds to wind and consolidate and be under our radar watch for a potential breakout A tight range is currently grooming and may need some close attention but not any aggressive pre-emptive motions until more favorable demand takes surface Look to buy > or hold current positions with targets first at then followed by Short term support is placed at to MA 32-MA 65-MA Major Down Trendline Short Term Down Trendline Break Issue: Metro Pacific Inv (MPI) Price: 4.81 Recommendation: Trading Buy > resistance of Suppt: Resist: /5.42 RSI: 53 MPI drew up some rally activity after demonstrating a six day reactive drive to 4.60 then finding some support here We keep watch of MPI as it recently broke above a short term down trendline which could possibly lead into a major down trendline challenge soon if things go well This major resistance challenge would require prices to launch itself above 4.85 or better 4.95 to drum up more upside potential; thereafter we look to target 5.42 to 5.60 Stops are to be raised to recent lows (4.60)
3 US: Dow Jones Tech Spotlight --- Page 3 Recommendation: Range trade Support: 15,287 15,209 Resistance: 15,709-15,790 The Dow climbed 111-pts still framing a recovery swing; US indices may soon show overbought reads with prices showing wider disparities to short term averages The Dow s consolidation remains holding a large sideways pattern between 14,760 and 15,709 keeping the range trade MACD readings do show its rally to still be in order A range trade or hold is maintained looking at reactions showing higher-low bases as next openings for purchases Support stop can now be raised to trail on its 32-day (15,312) or 16-day MA (15,322) whichever is higher
4 Philippines: PSEi Tech Spotlight --- Page 4 Recommendation: Range trade (watch resistance) Support: 6,511 6,400 / 6,191 Resistance: 6,648 6,829 The PSEi inched up 3-pts and proceeds to wrestle with resistance effects (which we adjust to 6,648) Prices need to claim a wider berth above its 130-day Moving Average resistance to re-take its potential advance Hold but raise support stop to the 16-day MA (6,511) Resistance and a slowdown in momentum may be needy of this reaction to generate more wind up power necessary in re-challenging its supply zone A rally above 6,648 should re-awaken the upward angle pushing for fresh buys
5 Tech Spotlight --- Page 5 US ishares MSCI Philippines: EPHE Recommendation: Range trade (watch resistance) Support: Resistance: /37.47 The MSCI Philippines was little lower sliding by 0.05-pts and still shows resistance to be an obstacle Two more Moving Averages nearby at have to be beat in order for the sideways shift to turn up and positively retarget at the least Support stops are carried up to and respectively MACD readings have weakened showing some concern especially as resistance poses to be headstrong Raise your guard and adjust stop to support - as prices may be goaded to perform another reactive thrust as resistance proves to be too heavy
6 PLDT-US (PHI) Tech Spotlight --- Page 6 Recommendation: Range trade (watch support) Support: / Resistance: PLDT-US was up $0.18 at $66.30 and proceeds to side wind precariously over its $65.75 support MACD reads still show corrective pressure and should cast defensive tactics just in case support breaks This needs to stage a wider recovery here, allowing a maximum reaction to 64, else be cast back to Aug lows ($59) As of the moment a range trade holds with a tight stop placed at $65.75 we prefer a push above $67.70 to trigger a ranged buy to target $72 Price parity of PHI to TEL stands at ($66.30*43.15 = P2,860)
Philippine Equity Research Focus Items Issue Highlight Page US rallies/psei rotates DOW PSEi MSCI Phils EPHE Issue Previous Current Change YTD % PHI
Issue Previous Current Change % YTD % Philippines 7,716 7,674 (41.82) (0.54) 6.14 Peso-$ 44.110 44.140 0.030 0.07 (1.30) MSCI Phils 40.92 41.19 0.27 0.66 7.83 PLDT US 70.440 69.180 (1.260) (1.79) 9.31
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Issue Previous Current Change Change % Philippines 6,090 6,215 125.18 2.06 Peso-$ 43.830 43.790 (0.040) (0.091) DJIA 15,191 15,327 135.54 0.89 SP500 1,684 1,689 5.14 0.31 Nasdaq 3,729 3,725 (4.01) (0.11)
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Issue Previous Current Change % YTD % Philippines 7,630 7,589 (41.11) (0.54) 10.93 Peso-$ 49.43 49.54 0.110 0.22 (0.36) MSCI Phils 36 36.26 0.26 0.72 11.91 PLDT US 35.26 35.95 0.690 1.96 30.49 DJIA 20,453
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Issue Previous Current Change % YTD % Philippines 7,270 7,246 (23.65) (0.33) 5.93 Peso-$ 50.325 50.099 (0.226) (0.45) 0.76 MSCI Phils 34.19 34.2 0.01 0.03 5.56 PLDT US 30.67 31.77 1.100 3.59 15.32 DJIA
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