Erdemir Group Months Consolidated Financial Results. 11 November 2013
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1 Erdemir Group Months Consolidated Financial Results 11 November 2013
2 2 / 32 DISCLAIMER Ereğli Demir Çelik Fabrikaları T.A.Ş. (Erdemir) may, when necessary, make written or verbal announcements about forward-looking information, expectations, estimates, targets, assessments and opinions. Erdemir has made the necessary arrangements about the amounts and results of such information through its Disclosure Policy and has shared such policy with the public through the Erdemir website, in accordance with the Capital Markets Board regulations. As stated in related policy, information contained in forward-looking statements, whether verbal or written, should not include unrealistic assumptions or forecasts. It should be noted that, actual results could materially differ from estimates taking into account the fact that they are not based on historical facts but are driven from expectations, beliefs, plans, targets and other factors which are beyond the control of our Company. As a result, forward-looking statements should not be fully trusted or taken as granted. Forward-looking statements should be considered valid only considering the conditions prevailing at the time of the announcement. In cases where it is understood that forward-looking statements are no longer achievable, such matter will be announced to the public and the statements will be revised. However, the decision to make a revision is a result of a subjective evaluation. Therefore, it should be noted that, when a party is coming to a judgement based on estimates and forward-looking statements, our Company may not have made a revision at that particular time. Our Company makes no commitment to make regular revisions which would fully cover changes in every parameter. New factors may arise in the future which may not be possible to foresee at this moment in time.
3 3 / 32 Agenda 2013 Market Overview Months Results
4 In EU, sales price was 592 USD/ton as of October 2013 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Source: * Worldsteel ** Bloomberg 4 / Sep Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov Apr Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May Oct % 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% EU27 CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % )* 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% USA CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % )* CIS CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % ) * HRC PRICES ( USD/TON )** 60% % 40% % 20% % 0% % -20% % -40% % EU NORTH AMERICA CIS BLACK SEA/BALTIC EXPORT
5 Crude steel capacity utilization ratio of Erdemir Group is increasing CRUDE STEEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATIO 90,0% 88,0% 88,4% 88,9% 86,0% 84,0% 84,1% 82,0% 80,0% 78,0% 80,2% 78,3% 78,7% 76,0% M Erdemir Group World Source: Worldsteel 5 / 32
6 Scrap prices are increasing Source: Bloomberg Platts/IODEX / USD/TON 260 COKING COAL PRICES (HCC PEAK DOWNS REGION FOB AUSTRALIA) USD/TON 160 IRON ORE PRICES (IODEX 62% FE CFR NORTH CHINA MID) USD/TON ERDEMIR GROUP HRC EFFECTIVE PRICE CIS HRC BLACKSEA/BALTIC EXPORT PRICE FOB USD/TON SCRAP PRICES (HMS CFR TURKEY MID)
7 Turkish steel consumption increased by 9% in M YoY PRODUCTION ( 000 TONS ) Long Flat Total CONSUMPTION ( 000 TONS ) M M Long Flat Total M M Source: TISPA 7 / 32
8 Turkish iron and steel product imports increased by 29% in M YoY IRON AND STEEL PRODUCT EXPORTS ( 000 TONS ) Long Steel Billet Flat Steel Slab IRON AND STEEL PRODUCT IMPORTS ( 000 TONS ) Total M M Long Steel Billet Flat Steel Slab Total M M Source: TISPA 8 / 32
9 After the contraction in 2009, all markets are expanding Source: TURKSTAT and ERDEMİR Group Analyses 9 / 32 CHANGES IN SECTOR DEVELOPMENT INDEX (% YoY) 40% 33,4% 30% 20% 10% 0% -0,2% 32,6% 20,0% 18,3% 22,1% 16,0% 11,3% 11,2% 2,7% 5,5% 5,9% 2,0% 6,0% 4,0% 0,6% 2,5% 4,0% 2,5% 4,0% -10% -5,5% -20% -16,1% -30% -40% -22,9% -30,0% (e) 2014 (e) Construction White Goods Mechanical Machinery Automotive
10 HRC sales prices are lower than last year Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Çin 2.Kalite Kok Kömürü Spot İhraç Fiyatı ( USD/TON ) HRC PRICES ( USD/Ton ) CIS EXPORT HRC BLACKSEA/BALTIC EU HRC CHINA SPOT HRC USA IMPORT HR ERDEMIR GROUP As of October 2013, EU HRC price was 592 USD, China HRC spot price is 570 USD, USA export HRC price is 600 USD. The prices were 616 USD, 603 USD, 575 USD respectively by the end of October Source: Bloomberg 10 / 32
11 Billet sales prices are lower than last year Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Çin 2.Kalite Kok Kömürü Spot İhraç Fiyatı ( USD/TON ) BILLET PRICES ( USD/Ton ) BILLET CHINA EXPORT BILLET CIS EXPORT BLACKSEA/BALTIC BILLET EXPORT TURKEY ERDEMIR GROUP As of October 2013, Turkey export price was 533 USD while it was 538 USD in October Source: Bloomberg 11 / 32
12 12 / 32 Agenda 2013 Market Overview Months Results
13 13 / 32 ERDEMİR GROUP KEY FIGURES M M Liquid Steel Production (000 Tons) Slab Production (1) (000 Tons) Flat Steel Production (2) (000 Tons) Long Steel Production (000 Tons) Flat Steel Shipments (000 Tons) Long Steel Shipments (000 Tons) Net Sales Revenue (3) (M. USD) EBITDA (3) (M. USD) Net Profit For The Year (3) (M. USD) All figures are on IFRS consolidated basis unless stated otherwise. (1) Total slab production of Ereğli and İskenderun Plants. (2) Total flat steel production of Ereğli and İskenderun Plants. (3) 1 USD = 1,8619 TRY (January-September 2013 average exchange rate)
14 Liquid steel production increased by 4% in M YoY 14 / 32 LIQUID STEEL PRODUCTION ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months
15 Production increased by 5% in M YoY 15 / 32 PRODUCTION VOLUMES ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Hot Cold Long Total
16 Sales volumes increased by 6% in M YoY 16 / 32 SALES VOLUMES ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Hot Cold Long Total
17 Net sales revenue was 3,9 billion USD in M YoY 17 / 32 NET SALES REVENUE ( MILLION USD ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Domestic Export Total
18 Sales to automotive industry and secondary production increased in M YoY 18 / M FLAT STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) M FLAT STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) 422Kt; 10% 193Kt; 5% 575Kt; 14% 238Kt; 6% 345Kt; 8% 4.230Kton; 91% 570Kt; 13% 1.488Kt; 35% 399Kt; 9% 371Kt; 9% 199Kt; 5% 374Kt; 9% 487Kt; 12% 184Kt; 5% 4.016Kton; 91% 464Kt; 11% 424Kt; 11% 1.512Kt; 38% M LONG STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) M LONG STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) 24Kt; 3% 7Kt; 1% 119Kt; 15% 804Kton; 76% 340Kt; 42% 28Kt; 4% 14Kt; 2% 99Kt; 15% 669Kton; 70% 193Kt; 29% 214Kt; 27% 99Kt; 12% 215Kt; 32% 120Kt; 18%
19 Flat steel sales to EU countries was 72% of our flat export in M 19 / M FLAT STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) M FLAT STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) 45Kt; 10% 24Kt; 6% 31Kt; 7% 22Kt; 5% 443Kton; 9% 71Kt; 17% 46Kt; 11% 10Kt; 2% 417Kton; 9% 232Kt; 56% 321Kt; 72% 57Kt; 14% M LONG STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) M LONG STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) 17Kt; 7% 10Kt; 4% 23Kt; 9% 40Kt; 14% 8Kt; 3% 248Kton; 24% 289Kton; 30% 199Kt; 80% 241Kt; 83%
20 In M, Erdemir Group average flat and long steel prices were 673 USD/ton and 582 USD/ton respectively Oct-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Mar / 32 Mar-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 May-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 USD/TON Erdemir Group Flat Sales Price Erdemir Group Flat Cost of Sales USD/TON Erdemir Group Billet Sales Price Erdemir Group Billet Cost of Sales Flat steel prices decreased by 8% on average in M YoY. Long steel prices decreased by 10% on average in M YoY.
21 Net profit increased by 100% in M YoY EBITDA ( MILLION USD ) ,0% ,0% ,2% 20,7% 21,8% 20,3% 19,4% 17,5% ,0% 13,8% ,6% 10,9% 11,3% 8,6% ,0% 0,0% Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months EBITDA EBITDA Margin NET PROFIT/(LOSS) ( MILLION USD ) ,0% ,1% ,8% 12,0% ,4% 10,7% 11,4% 9,4% ,5% 207 5,1% 173 6,0% ,2% 4,1% 4,7% ,0% Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Net Profit/(Loss) Net Profit/(Loss) Margin 21 / 32
22 EBITDA was 751 million USD in M 22 / 32 Consolidated EBITDA => Consolidated Net Profit (Million USD) (162) 49 (110) (101) (15) 412 EBITDA (1 Jan - 30 Sept 2013) Depreciation Interest inc. from overdue sales/foreign exc. gain from trade r/p Operating Income Finance Inc./Exp. Tax Inc./Exp. Non- Controlling Interests NET PROFIT (1 Jan - 30 Sept 2013)
23 EBITDA was 751 million USD in M 23 / 32 Consolidated EBITDA => Consolidated Net Cash (Million USD) 751 (239) 49 (89) (18) (117) (69) 337 (535) (89) 178 EBITDA (1 Jan - 30 Sept 13) Changes in Working Capital Interest inc. from overdue sales/foreign exc. from trade r/p Interest Exp. Interest Inc., Tax and Other Net Cash Used in Investing Act. Free Cash Flow Dividends Paid Decrease in Financial Liabilities Foreign Cur. DECREASE IN Diff. and Other CASH (1 Jan - 30 Sept 13)
24 EBITDA was 751 million USD in M 24 / 32 Consolidated EBITDA Q => Consolidated EBITDA Q (Million USD) (53) (40) 24 (27) EBITDA (1 April- 30 June 2013) Quantity, Mix Price Cost Non-operating Expenses Other EBITDA (1 July - 30 Sept 2013)
25 EBITDA per ton for cold product was 155 USD/ton in Q 25 / 32 EBITDA PER TON (USD/TON) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Hot Cold Long
26 Net debt was million USD at the end of Q 26 / 32 BORROWINGS ( MILLION USD ) M Long-Term Debt Short-Term Debt Net Debt
27 Net debt was million USD at the end of Q 27 / 32 NET DEBT (MILLION USD) (337) 69 (177) Free Cash - Flow Dividend -Payment Foreign Cur. - Diff. - and Other Net Debt (December 2012) Net Debt (September 2013)
28 Erdemir Group has 936 million USD cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q 28 / 32 BORROWINGS MATURITY PROFILE (MILLION USD) Sept.13 1 Oct.-Dec Cash 2013 Principal Revolving Trade Financing Loans Interest ,2
29 Raw materials made up 70% of the cost of goods sold in M COST OF PRODUCTION BREAKDOWN* - % 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 1% 7% 6% 6% 6% 11% 12% 11% 12% 70% 75% 74% 75% M M Raw Materials Personnel Expenses Purchased Energy Expenses Depreciation and Amortization Exp. Non-operating Expenses Other RAW MATERIALS BREAKDOWN - % 19% 16% 16% 16% 12% 13% 13% 14% 28% 36% 36% 33% 41% 35% 35% 37% M M Iron Ore&Pellet Coal Scrap Other * Excluding inventory writedowns and provision released 29 / 32
30 Flat cost per ton excluding raw materials was realised as 177 USD/ton in Q FLAT PRODUCTS ( USD/TON )* Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Fixed Cost Per Ton Variable Cost Per Ton Flat Production (000 tons) LONG PRODUCTS ( USD/TON )* Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Fixed Cost Per Ton Variable Cost Per Ton Long Production (000 tons) * Conversion Cost 30 / 32
31 Capital expenditures of 288 million USD is planned for / 32 ( M USD ) M Fixed Assets Acquisition and Maintenance Capital Expenditures * The figures only cover the board approved capex plan.
32 Number of employees was as of September / 32 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES September
33 Q&A
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