RESULTS FOR Q ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

Transcription

1 RESULTS FOR Q3 217 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

2 Market 1 2 Operation Financials 3

3 Market 1

4 217 Third Quarter Market Conditions Fires & Strikes in Europe Harsh Hurricane Season in United States Increase in Global Economic Activities High import requirements of West Africa & Latin America Refining Environment High global capacity utilization rates Abundance in light & sweet crudes Decreasing Stock levels but Still were still High Stock high Levels Political Instabilities 4

5 Key Highlights from Q3 87% Increase in Profit Before Tax (Mil. $) 351 Profit before tax (Mil. $) +87% +% Q3 216 Q3 215 Q3 All time high domestic sales numbers Domestic Sales (Mil. Tons) +11,2% +14% 7,7 6,9 6,8 217 Q3 216 Q3 215 Q3 Tüpraş Net Margin ($/bbl) Net Refining Margin Above Target 8,9 5,7 +3,2 8,3 +,6 217 Q3 216 Q3 215 Q3 5

6 8 Months Turkish Consumption (Million tons) Diesel Jet Fuel , ,1 +8.4% +2.5% , , ,,5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 Gasoline Fuel Oil* 217 1,55 217, % -15.9% 216 1,49 216,37,,4,8 1,2 1,6,,1,2,3,4 Source: EMRA *bunker excluded. 6

7 Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl) Brent -1,23-1, Differental Range Ural Differentials -,28 -,96-1,12 -,67-1,37-1,11-1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price Differentials Brent Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy 7

8 Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl) Diesel Jet Fuel ,7 15,2 14,3 1,5 7,9 1,7 13,1 11,2 1,8 9,2 9, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q ,4 11,2 9,5 9, ,4 1,5 1,2 9,4 7,3 7,7 8, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gasoline Fuel Oil ,2 13,3 13, 19,4 18,9 14,5 14,3 15, 13,5 12,8 11, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q ,1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-11,6-12, -13,2-15, -7, -6,9-5,7-1,6-12,5-13,1 8

9 2 Operations

10 Production Capacity Utilization* (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mil. Tons) 1 Min-Max ,7 4,3 11,3 19, 4,6 4,3 114,8 7, ,1 6,9 6,6 6,7 5,6 7,8 7,7 7,3 7,4 7,2 7, ,7 14,7 17,2 76,4 Crude Oil Other Total 214 Q3 215 Q3 216 Q3 217 Q3 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 MAINTENANCE SHUTDOWN Izmir Refinery Crude Unit (Capacity: 6,5 mtons/year) The maintenance shutdown in Q4 is expected to be completed in January 218. The effect of this maintenance shutdown has been included in our year-end estimations. *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 1

11 Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons) Jet Fuel Bitumen Gasoline Diesel Domestic sales of selected products 5,8 6, 5,4 5,4 4,6 3,2 4,1 4,3 3,9 2,6 2,9 3,3 3,5 2,8 2,8 2,9 2,2 1,8 2,3,6,7 2,3,6 1,7 1,7,5,6 1,5,6,5 1,1 1,3,5,5,6,9,9 1,2,8,4,4,2,3,4,4,3,4,8,9 1,,8 1, 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,5 1,3 1,5 6,7 3,6 5,1 5,3 2,6 2,9 1,7,5,5,4,9,9,5,9 1,1 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 All Time High Domestic Sales Domestic Total Sales Export 8,9 7,7 8,1 6,9 7,2 7,3 1,3 1,4 6,4 5,6 1,8 2,3 1,9 4,7 4,7 1,5 1,7,9 1,1 6,4 6,6 5,1 5, 5,4 4,9 3,6 3,9 4,1 7,9 8,1 1,2 1,2 1,2 7,7 6,8 6,9 6,1 1,8 4,3 7,9 7,6 1,7 1,3 6,2 6, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11

12 Opet Number of Stations Opet Sunpet Total M Market share as of September 3th: White Product: 17.9% Black Product: 16.6% 12

13 Financials 3

14 Med&Tüpraş Net Margins ($/bbl) ,7 3,4 3 nd Quarter Tüpraş Net Med Complex 8,3 4,9 5,7 3,8 8,9 6,5 ($/bbl) ,9 1,3 9M Tüpraş Net Margin 6,9 5,3 4,6 3,6 Med Margin 8,5 5, M 215 9M 216 9M 217 9M $ / bbl Gross Margin Inventory Effect Clean Gross Margin Clean NET Margin Med Margin 216 Q3 1,79,4 1,74 5,63 3, Q3 13,59,65 12,94 8,3 6, M 9,89,26 9,63 4,35 3, M 12,99,2 12,79 8,26 5,76 * Hedging operations excluded 14

15 Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl Production Yield % LPG 399, 291,5 3,4% -16,6-19,9 Gasoline 544,5 461, 2,2% 15, 11, Naphtha 447,4 366,1,4% -1,6-4,5 Jet Fuel 56,7 423,3 16,7% 12,4 8, Diesel 485,4 48,1 31,4% 13,1 9, Diesel 1 467,2 397,8 1,1% 1,7 7,6 Fuel Oil 1% 3,1 247,,4% -5,8-7,8 Fuel Oil 3,5% 292,7 228,5 3,9% -6,9-1,6 Others 272,9 22,7 18,7% -6,8-9,3 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 7,2 3,6 Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 52,1 45,9 Margin Differences, $/bbl 3,6 Total Raw Materials Charge, mn bbl 57,3 Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 26,3 Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL 724,3 15

16 Income Statement (In TL) Q3 Q % Diff. Million TL 216 9M 217 9M % Diff Net Sales Gross Profit Operating Expenses Income/Loss from other operations Operating Profit Income/Loss from equity investment Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss Financial Income Finance Expenses Profit Before Tax & Minorities Net Profit , ,7 76,1 EBITDA *(mn.tl) 1.891, 4.645,12 145,6 822,4 1.29,2 56,9 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 1.575, ,8 171,9 74, ,6 93,6 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb 1.776,8 4.57,1 153,7 695, ,1 71,9 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb- CCS 1.461, ,8 183,7 In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in operating profit. 16

17 Income Statement (In USD) Q3 Q % Diff. Million USD 216 9M 217 9M % Diff Net Sales Gross Profit Operating Expenses Income/Loss from other operations Operating Profit Income/Loss from equity investment Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss Financial Income Finance Expenses Profit Before Tax & Minorities Net Profit ,12 434,67 47,79 EBITDA *(mn. $) 644, ,28 1,45 278,92 366,75 31,49 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 534, ,6 123,14 25,7 48,1 62,8 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb 65, ,9 17, 235,5 34,2 44,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb- CCS 496, 1.155,2 132,9 In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in operating profit. For P&L, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,2 and 217 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59. For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 3,; 9M 216: 3,; 12M 216: 3,52 and 217 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 17

18 ,4,11, ,24,3,26,22,32,35,45,55,49 Financial Highlights (mn $) , EBITDA 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Net Debt 2,4 3,5 3, , ,8 3,3 Net Debt/*R. EBITDA 1,7 2, 1, ,5 1, ,, ,6,5,4,3,2,1, Net Income 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Return on Average Equity For P&L, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,2 and 217 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59. For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 3,; 9M 216: 3,; 12M 216: 3,52 and 217 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL Net Debt/Rolling EBITDA was calculated with USD figures. 18

19 Balance Sheet Analysis 3,22 3,1 3,28 3,4 2,46 1,74 1,7 1,59 1,36 1,23 1,69 1,98 2,2 2,62 2,19 2, ,721,69 1,3 Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) 1,641,68 1,21 1,4 1,4,82 1,641,59 2,45 2,2 1,72 1,58 2,19 2, 1,6 1,2,8,4,,93,71,52,51 Receivables (Billion $),9,2 1,7 1,9 1,15,88,91,91,66,7,75 1,57 Financial Loans (Billion $) Payables (Billion $) ,1,5 3,7 3,9 4, 4,2 3,45 3,57 3,3 3,4 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,6 3,6 3,4,9,3,3,3,4,5,6 1, 1,2 1,1,6,56,63 1,1 1, ,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3, 3,3 3,1 3, 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,892,95 2,1 2,1 1 1 LT Loans ST Loans For P&L, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,2 and 217 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59. For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 3,; 9M 216: 3,; 12M 216: 3,52 and 217 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL 19

20 Tüpraş Balance Sheet Million USD Diff. % Diff. Current Assets Cash & C. Equivalents Receivables Derivatives Inventories Pre-paid expenses Other Current Assets Long Term Assets Financial Assets & Subsidiaries Fixed Assets Derivatives Pre-paid expenses Deferred Tax Other Long Term Assets Total Assets Short Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables Derivatives Deferred Incomes Provisions Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables & Provisions Derivatives Other LT Liabilities Equity Minority Interests Total Liabilities For P&L, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,2 and 217 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59. For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 216 Q3 3,; 9M 216: 3,; 12M 216: 3,52 and 217 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL 2

21 FX Risk Exposure (3 Sept. 217) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash 96 Receivables & other assets 24 Stock 1,211 Forward & CFH 2,459 Payables 1,688 ST Financials RUP 296 Eurobond 7 LT Financials: 1,935 RUP Loans: 1,111 Other credits million $ *Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,212 mn $ 21

22 14'Q1 14'Q2 14'Q3 14'Q4 15'Q1 15'Q2 15'Q3 15'Q4 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1 17'Q2 17'Q3 217 Expectations vs 9 Months Results ,7 55,1 51,6 Brent Price ($/bbl) 56, 52,5 51,6 5,4 48,6 46, ,9 Capacity Utilization (%) 12,5 15,3 112,6 114, J-17 F-17 M-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17 The average Brent in 217 is expected to be in 5-55 $/bbl In 9M, the average was 51,9 $/bbl Expected Capacity Utilization in above 1 % In 9M, 112.6% capacity utilization was achieved. Tupras Net Refinery Margin Med Margin Mil. $ 4 Tüpraş Ditaş ,7 8,2 5, 8,9 5,4 6,5 17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q , , M Net Tüpraş refinery margin for 9M: 8,5 $/bbl (Target is 7,5-8, $/bbl) Planned Tüpraş investments for Million dollars 22

23 Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Operations Investment The average Brent price in 217 is expected to be 5-55 dollars per barrel. We expect Med Complex margins to be between 5,25-5,75 dollars per barrel band in 217. Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 7,5-8, dollars per barrel Expectations for 217; Full Capacity Utilization on average even after taking Izmir Maintenance shut down into consideration Production: approximately 29.2 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales: 3.6 million tons Refining investments is expected to be around 2 Million dollars. Additionally, around 125 million dollars investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity. 23

24 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. 24

25 Extras

26 Q3 Product Yields Bitumen 14% Gasoline 21% ASRFO+Vac % Bitumen 15% Gasoline 19% Coke 3% Other 5% Fuel Oil 5% Other 5,4% Black Prod. 2,7% Light Distil. 22,5% Naphtha % Fuel Oil 5% Coke 3% Other 5% Other 5,1% Black Prod. 23,2% Light Distil. 2,8% Naphtha 2% Mid. Distil. 51,4% Jet 18% Mid. Distil. 5,8% Jet 19% ULSD 34% ULSD 32% White Product %77,32 Production : 7,2 mn tons API: 3,48 % -2 White Product %75,7 Production : 7,6 mn tons API: 29,57 26

27 9M Product Yields Coke 2% ASRFO+Vac 1% Other 6% Fuel Oil 8% Other 5,5% Bitumen 12% Black Prod. 22,7% Light Distil. 22,2% Gasoline 21% Naphtha 1%, ASRFO+Vac % Bitumen 11% -,8 -,8 Coke 3% Other 6% Fuel Oil 8% Other 5,6% Black Prod. 21,9% Light Distil. 21,3% Gasoline 2% Naphtha 1% Mid. Distil. 49,5% Jet 17% Mid. Distil. 51,2% Jet 17% ULSD 32% White Product %76,2 Production : 2,32 mn tons API: 3,81 % +1 ULSD 34% 1,7 White Product %76,98 Production : 22,43 mn tons API: 3,32 27

28 Production (million tons) ,5 1,6 1, 3,1 1,8 1,3 3,8 3,8 2,3 2,5 1,6 1,3 Middle Distillate Jet Diesel 3, 2, 3,4 2,1 3,7 3,9 3,6 2,4 2,8 2,5 4, 3,9 2,7 2,4 1, 1,3 1,3 1, 1,1 1,3 1,4 2, 1,5 1,,5 1,3 1,2 1,4 1,3 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 Light Distillate Gasoline Naphtha 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17, Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 2, 1,5 1,,5, 1,4,4 1, 1,9,7 1,1 Black Product Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke 1,5 1,6,2,2,9,3,8,5 1,7,1,6 1, 1,4,2,8 1,5 1,6,2,2 1, 1,,4,3,4 1,5,2,4,9 1,7,2,9 1,2 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17,5 1,8,2,4 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 26, ,1 32,2 31,1 31,1 Crude Oil API 3,8 3,4 3,3 3,5 3,3 3,1 29,6 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 28

29 Product Yields 6% 5% 4% 3% 46% 46% 28% 27% 53% 52% Middle Distillate Jet Diesel 45% 31% 35% 3% 51% 52% 53% 52% 51% 51% 32% 34% 39% 36% 34% 32% 3% 25% 2% 15% Light Distillate Gasoline Naphtha 23% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 22% 2% 21% 2% 1% 22% 2% 2% 21% 22% 21% 21% 2% 21% 2% 19% 1% 18% 19% 21% 18% 16% 19% 18% 14% 16% 17% 19% 5% % Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 % Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1% 26% 27% 7% 1% Black Product Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke 26% 21% 21% 1% 21% 22% 21% 21% 3% 3% 9% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 21% 23% 5% 13% 11% 13% 14% 13% 12% 15% 18% 17% 15% 12% 5% 7% 5% 5% 5% 7% 5% Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 3% 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 26,5 Crude Oil API ,1 32,2 31,1 31,1 3,8 3,3 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,1 29,6 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 29

30 Inventory Effect* Analysis $ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total 1st Quarter -9-13,4-22,4 26,9 56,2 83,2 2nd Quarter 46,9 7,1 117, -3,5-21,9-52,4 3rd Quarter 2,3 12,8 15,2 36,9 31,1 67,9 July -9,7,1-9,6 5,9 5,6 11,5 Agu 11,8 12,8 24,6 11,1 8,1 19,2 Sep,3 -,1,2 19,9 17,3 37,2 9 Months 4,2 69,5 19,8 33,3 65,4 98,7 *FX effect Included, hedging excluded 3

31 Oil Price & Exchange Rate for Q3 Brent Price ($/bbl) USD/TRY Q3 Brent Price ($/bbl): 45,9 USD/TRY: 2, Q3 Brent Price ($/bbl): 52,1 USD/TRY: 3,51 3,9 3, ,5 45 3,3 4 3, ,9 25 J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16 O-16 N-16 D-16 J-17 F-17 M-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 2,7 31

32 Financial Highlights Million TL Cash Cash Equivalent 3.663, ,4 3.27,5 6.5, , ,8 Total Financial Debt 6.522, 7.755, 9.919, , , ,8 Net Debt 2.858, , ,9 6.83, ,3 4.44,1 EBITDA(Rolling) 1.66,1 739, , ,3 3.98,5 6.15,5 Net Debt /EBITDA. 2,68 5,22 1,81 1,79 1,69,72 32

33 Profitability Indicators, Q3 9M (%) (%) 45,85 52,8 14 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 41,77 51,9 24,26 3,48 29,57-3, Processed Crude API 3,81 3,32-1,57 77,32 75,7-1,6 White Product Yield, (%) 76,2 76,98,78 3,81 6,45 69,3 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 3,62 5,76 59,1 5,68 8,95 57,6 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 4,6 8,46 83,9 63, ,5 114 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 1.37,5 4.79,4 197,6 731, ,6 89,4 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 1.484, ,4 184, 74, ,6 93,6 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb 1.776,8 4.57,1 153,7 887, ,7 64,3 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb- CCS 1.667, 4.48,4 164,5 867, ,7 76,1 EBITDA *(mn. TL) 1.891, 4.645,12 145,6 1.14, ,8 53,1 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 1.781, ,4 155,3 * In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB calculation method includes these in operating profit 33

34 9M Trading Activities Finished Products High Sulfur Diesel import increased, and ULSD imports decreased due to RUP working with fully capacity. Intermediates HVGO + LCGO imports increased for the conversion units. Product Imports, Ton* Intermediate Imports, Ton* M 216 9M HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil 9M 216 9M