2Q/2011 Analyst Meeting. August 9, 2011 Synergy Hall

Transcription

1 2Q/2011 Analyst Meeting August 9, 2011 Synergy Hall 1

2 Agenda Key Highlights 2Q/11 Financial Results Market Outlook This presentation has be prepared by PTT Aromatics and Refining Public Company Limited (the Company ) and the information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. Furthermore, it contains information which are base on the Company s data collections and analysis with third parties references. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are corrects. The Company proscribes the redistribution, duplicate, and/or either disclosure of this presentation in whole or in part without the written permission of the Company and the Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. The Company does not undertake to revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances. 2

3 Key Highlights 3

4 Key Highlights in 2Q/2011 Market Average Dubai price rose from 100 USD/BBL to 111 USD/BBL following higher demand in emerging markets, ME political unrest, OPEC decision not to uplift production, and European debt crisis Petroleum products- Dubai crack remained high from Asia demand, US driving season, and travelling season in Europe Aromatics prices softened from additional supplies from China and S-Korea (1.9 MTPA) but recovering in 2H/11 with huge supplies of PTA Operation and Business CDU utilization rate 105%: AR1 resumed normal operation after 47 day turnaround in 1Q/11 BTX utilization rate 88%: AR2 planned shutdown for efficiency improvement for 12 days target to increase PX capacity 30,000-40,000 TPA Market GIM of 5.78 USD/BBL, increased 21% YoY from higher crack spreads of petroleum and aromatics Stock gains of 1.83 USD/BBL (1,385 million Baht) following rising crude prices Extra income from the insurance claim of 521 million Baht from HCU incident in 2008 Profits from affiliated companies for 402 million Baht, mainly from Phenol 349 million Baht Effective tax rate of 18% - tax incentive from GTNOX environmental friendly project Corporate Joint shareholders meeting shall be held within 6 months, according to PLC Act, after shareholders meeting approved amalgamation with PTTCH (21 Apr 11). As such, merger will be completed by 21 Oct 11 Creditors objection period and all consents were completed. 9 integration team are currently working on work flow and culture alignment to be prepared for Day 1 4

5 2Q/11 Financial Results 5

6 Dubai Price (USD/BBL) Oil Price Movement & Cracks Dubai ULG 95 Jet Gas Oil Fuel Oil Unit : USD/BBL Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 QTD Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Jet-Dubai Gas Oil-Dubai Market GRM Q/10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q/11 2Q QTD Q/10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q/11 2Q QTD ULG95-Dubai 1Q/10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q/11 2Q QTD 1Q/10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q/11 2Q QTD Fuel Oil-Dubai 1Q/10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q/11 2Q Dubai price remains high following unrest in Middle East Jet and diesel spreads strong from high demand in China and travelling season in Europe Gasoline spread high as contributed from US driving season Fuel oil spread stable but demand still high from electricity shortage in China Market GRM lower QoQ due to lower LPG and light naphtha spreads + higher fuel use & loss due to higher feedstock cost 6

7 Condensate (USD/Ton) Aromatics Price Movement & Cracks Condensate PX FECP BZ SEA SPOT Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 QTD Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 FECP Spot PX-Condensate 338 BZ - Condensate SEA SPOT Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 July August 1Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 July August Condensate price remains high following rising crude prices PX-Condensate spread softened from additional supply of 1.9 MTPA from S-Oil and Urumqi BZ-Condensate spread lowered from heavy turnaround of SM plants 7

8 Maximized Production with High Flexibility Crude + Other Feedstocks Condensate + Other Feedstocks Total Intake Unit: KBD AR1 resumed operation from turnaround in 1Q/11 and ran at full capacity AR2 planned shutdown for efficiency improvement for 12 days (Jun 20-Jul 1) with a target to increase PX capacity by 30,000-40,000 TPA Total intake increased 24 KBD YoY and 60 KBD QoQ Petroleum production back to normal rate after AR1 resumed operation 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 1H/11 1H/10 M.BBL Aromatics slightly declined from 1Q from 12 day shutdown 4% 7% 23% 4% 11% 36% Petroleum Production 18.3 MBBL 14.9 MBBL 19.5 MBBL 10% 7% 8% 10% 26% 2% 8% 24% 4% 8% 32% 38% 15% 12% 11% 30% Aromatics Production Unit: % Unit: % Others 430 KTon 538 KTon 513 KTon LPG 11% 14% 16% Others Light Naphtha Reformate Jet Diesel Fuel Oil 30% 29% 59% 56% 55% Benzene Paraxylene 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 8

9 Optimized Operation Gross Integrated Margin Market GIM Hedging Gain (Loss) Stock Gain (Loss) Accounting GIM (0.87) (1.94) (0.80) (0.85) (0.82) (0.01) 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 1H/11 1H/10 Unit : USD/BBL Ending Inventory (Million BBL) 31 Dec Jun 11 Crude Condensate Petroleum Products Aromatics Products Total Cost (USD/BBL) 31 Dec Jun 11 Crude Condensate Petroleum Products Aromatics Products Market GIM at 5.78 USD/BBL or totaled 4,370 million Baht, increasing by 837 million Baht YoY Price effect 803 MB Volume effect 338 MB YoY Factor Analysis (2Q/11 vs 2Q/10) FX effect (304) MB Stock gain net LCM of 1.83 USD/BBL, totaled 1,385 million Baht following rising crude prices Aromatics spreads softened while petroleum remained strong Hedging loss for 1H/11 of 1,107 million Baht of which ~34% was cost management on a rolling basis 9

10 Statement of Income Analysis Cash Cost EBITDA & Net Profit 2.79 OPEX 2.87 Unit : USD/BBL Interest Hedging Gain (Loss) Stock Gain (Loss) net LCM Operating Profit EBITDA 12, Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 1H/11 1H/10 M.BBL FX Net Profit 999 8,048 2,580 4,429 4, ,764 1,511 3, ,171 (365) (541) (885) (969) 5,204 2,929 (12) (1,091) 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 1H/11 1H/10 (522) 4,979 2,141 7,120 1,826 Lower interest at 0.91 USD/BBL due to lower interest bearing debts 2,682 million Baht as of 30 Jun 2011 Insurance claim of 521 million Baht for opportunity loss from AR1 unplanned shutdown in 2008 Baht depreciation resulted in FX loss of 237 million Baht from USD loan of 435 MUSD Lower effective tax rate of 18% - tax incentive from GTNOX environmental friendly project 10

11 Statements of Financial Position 153, ,881 Unit: Million Baht Current assets increased 4,775 mnbaht due to an increase in inventory value following higher oil and aromatics price Current Assets Other Assets PPE 48,916 36,457 53,691 29,696 2,244 2,069 8,157 18,547 6,990 28,740 33,520 28,746 96,301 96,201 62,781 67,455 Current Liabilities Other Liabilities Long Term Liabilities Equities Non-current assets declined 1,268 mnbaht from the decrease in deferred tax assets of 1,638 mnbaht while investment in associates increased 659 mnbaht Total liabilities declined 1,167 mnbaht from lower trade accounts payable while interest bearing debts increased for used as working capital and dividend payment Equities increased 4,674 mnbaht from net profit and ESOP warrant exercise As of 31 Dec 2010 As of 30 Jun 11 Financial Ratio Loan Currency Interest Rate Unit : Times Interest Coverage Ratio Net Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/Equity THB 78% USD 22% THB 75% Floated 52% Fixed 48% 2Q/10 1Q/11 2Q/11 As of 30 Jun 11 11

12 Market Outlook 12

13 Oil Price to stay at High Level Brent Price USD/BBL Analysts 3Q/11 4Q/ Reuters Barclays BNP Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs Financial turmoil in Europe Tight monetary policy adopted by the Chinese government Slower than expected US economic recovery High unemployment rate at 9.2% JBC Energy JP Morgan Nomura UBS Source: Reuters (27 July 2011) Unrest in North Africa and Middle East Moody s negative outlook on US and with a possible downgrade + Is quantitative easing 3 happening? + Most analyst view oil should stay over 100 USD/BBL in 2011 and Prolonged political uncertainty in North Africa and Middle East supported oil to be at a high price through Syria, Libya, Yemen still unrest + High Asia Pacific and Middle East oil demand growth Source: WSJ online 13

14 Global Oil Demand/Supply Outlook Global Demand Growth will Out Pace Supply Growth Global Demand Growth Forecast Changes (mb/d) IEA +1.2 mb/d EIA +1.4 mb/d OPEC +1.4 mb/d JBC +1.5 mb/d Source: IEA (13 July 2011) Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC and JBC (July 2011) KBD Asia Pacific and Middle East Balance Projection IEA revised down global oil demand growth to 1.2 mb/d effected by higher oil price, but the total oil demand for 2011 still reach 89.2 mb/d, the highest level at all time Capacity growths from OPEC and Non-OPEC are expected to be lower than demand growth, OPEC spare capacity will be tighter in the near future Healthy GRM is expected to sustain throughout 2013 Source : FACTS 14 April 2011, PTTAR 14

15 The start of PX price rally? World PX Capacity Increase By Quarter (KTA) World PTA Capacity Increase By Quarter (KTA) Startup Startup Source : PCI, PTTAR : Up date As of July 29, 2011 Source : PCI, PTTAR : Up date As of July 29, 2011 PX price and spread show sign of resilient and recovery back after lowering in June due to additional capacity in 2Q/11 from S-Oil and Urumqi PC resume production Limited PX supply addition in the coming months New PTA start-ups will begin to exert a major demand pull in 2H/11 and Sanfangxiang PTA is expected to start-up by end August or early September Formosa on fire, shutting down its 540 KBD refinery and its aromatics plants (1.4 mtpa PX and 1.2 mtpa BZ) 15

16 Strong PX Downstream Demand Expected Fabric Sale in China Cotton VS. Polyester Source : CMAI, Jul. 29, 2011 Polyester Fiber Inventory In China China s monetary policy had shown sign to slowdown its economic, but fabric sale may be not effect much because of the nature of essential products characteristic Market is expected to build polyester inventory to its normal level quickly as year end, seasonal demand is approaching Even though cotton price had drop but polyester is still competitive to cotton Source : CMAI, Jul. 29,

17 BZ demand and supply World BZ Capacity Increase By Quarter (KTA) Startup Unit: KTA 1.9 mtpa BZ Capacity Loss from Planned and Unplanned Shutdown Planned Unplanned Korea : GS Caltex Korea : S-Oil No. 1 Japan : Aromatics Kashima China : Fujial Dahua PC China : CNOOC Taiwan : FCFC No. 1, Source : PCI, Mitsui, PTTAR Update As of July 29, 2011 Thousand Metric Tons Source : CMAI, July 2011 Huge SM Shutdown in 2Q/11 is over Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 China Korea Australia Japan Taiwan Indonesia Capacity Availability 110% ~ 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Source : PTTAR Update As of Aug. 5, 2011 No more new BZ supply within this year but Naphtha cracker plant to turnaround significantly in 3Q/11, BZ supply should be tightening going forward Tsunami in Japan destroyed the automobile supply chain, BZ derivative plastic demand from car manufacturer collapse pressure BZ price and spread during 2Q/11 Going back to normal situation of automobile production and approaching high seasoning BZ derivatives demand in 2H/11, BZ expected to move up from the bottom in 2Q/11 SM is back from major turnaround in 2Q/11, thus contributing to stronger demand of BZ Phenol price starts to rebound from restocking in China 17

18 Thank You Investor Relations ir@pttar.com Tel : , Fax :