Oil & Gas Sector. Thailand Industry Focus

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1 Thailand Industry Focus Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 12 Feb 1 The early bird catches the worm Crude price turns from premium to Dubai crude discount, benefiting TOP and IRPC the most Refiners will also book a gain from smaller fuel loss through low crude prices These two factors will boost refiners 1F earnings by 9%-111% Overweight refineries: Buy BCP, IRPC and TOP; Hold PTTGC Crude premium turns to discount. We believe that refineries will be good investment propositions for the next quarter as low crude prices and strong GRM will start to kick into earnings. Despite strong share price performance YTD (up %-37%), the rally should be extended given crack spreads of jet, diesel, gasoline and fuel oil (over Dubai) have strengthened q-o-q. Further, softer global crude demand has dampened and Arabian crude premiums over Dubai crude, from usual premiums of US$3-/bbl to a discount of US$0.-2/bbl. and Arabian crudes are major inputs for TOP and IRPC, at 60% and 0% of their crude intake, respectively. Additional gains from smaller fuel loss. This may have been overlooked by the market. Refiners typically lose about 3% of input fuel during production or US$3/bbl when crude oil was US$100/bbl. But with crude oil at US$0/bbl, refiners would save US$1./bbl which will go directly to GRM. IRPC will gain the most; its refinery is less complex and it has a longer production process than peers, leading to 6% fuel loss, the largest among peers. However, this means IRPC could see a US$3/bbl gain in GRM. We raised GRM for TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC by US$ /bbl for 1F. This lifted earnings by 9%-111%. Overweight refiners: TOP is our favourite. We expect strong refinery earnings to support a share price rerating in 1H 1. We raised target prices for BCP, IRPC, and TOP by 26%,, and 1%, respectively, and have BUY ratings for these stocks. We maintain a HOLD rating for PTTGC on concerns that olefins margins would contract. Although foreign ownership in TOP has increased from 24% in 4Q14 to 26% currently, this is still below the upcycle level (32%) in 07. TOP also has the strongest leverage to a rebound in oil prices. SET : 1,60.11 Analyst Naphat CHANTARASEREKUL naphatc@th.dbsvickers.com STOCKS Bangchak Petroleum Pcl , (2.9) 19.8 BUY IRPC PCL , BUY Thai Oil PCL , (1.4) BUY PTT Global Chemical 8.0 8, (8.2) (19.0) HOLD, IRPC PCL : IRPC is a fully integrated refinery and naphtha-based petrochemical producer. The company was founded in 1978 and listed in 199. Thai Oil PCL : TOP is Thailand's largest refinery with investments in petrochemicals, power, lube base, and ethanol PTT Global Chemical : PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is a fully integrated petrochemical and refinery producer and is the petrochemical flagship company of PTT Group. PTTGC was formed following the amalgamation of PTTCH and PTTAR. Bangchak Petroleum Pcl : BCP operates a refinery business with 1kbd capacity. The company also has its own retail gas stations, and recently expanded into solar farm, biodiesel, and ethanol. Relative performance 40% 30% % 0% - -% -30% Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-1 SET SETPETRO SETENERG, Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance US$m 3 mth 12 mth Rating ed-sgc / sa- CS

2 Savings from crude premium turning to discount and smaller fuel loss will boost refiners earnings The recent drop in crude prices will start to reflect in the earnings of refiners this and next quarter. Refiners will benefit in two ways: significant savings from falling crude premiums, and smaller fuel loss. With softer demand, crude (60% of TOP s crude intake) is trading at lower prices than the benchmark Dubai crude. Before crude prices tumbled in 4Q14, traded at US$3-/bbl premium to Dubai crude. Currently, this premium has turned to a discount of US$0.-2.0/bbl. Given weak demand, we expect the premium to stay at this level throughout 1H1. IRPC: Crude intake 12% 9% Others 13% TOP: Crude intake crude 16% Arabian 0% TOP and IRPC should benefit the most from this trend. 60% of TOP s crude intake is crude, while 0% of IRPC s crude intake is Arabian crude. Both and Arabian crude have been trading at similar levels. As of the second week of February, these have been trading at a discount of US$0.7/bbl and US$1.6/bbl, respectively. 8% Oman & others 22% 60% and Arab Light Crude Premium over Dubai Crude US$/bbl US$/bbl Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-1 crude (LHS) Arab Light Crude (LHS) Crude Premium (RHS) Arab Light Crude premium (RHS) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P PTTGC: Crude intake % West Africa 1% 1% crude 2% Oman crude 2% BCP: Crude intake % 30% Others % As crude price drops from an average of US$100 in 14 to US$0 in 1Q1, refiners should gain from a smaller fuel loss. Refiners typically lose about 3% of input fuel during the production process. The current crude price means the fuel loss is also halved from US$3/bbl to US$1./bbl. This savings will go directly to GRM. IRPC will gain the most because its fuel loss is the largest at 6%; it should gain US$3/bbl from a smaller fuel loss this quarter. Page 2

3 Raised GRM for all refiners Apart from cost savings in the form of crude premium turning to discount and smaller fuel loss, crack spreads of jet, diesel, gasoline and fuel oil have also strengthened q-oq. Hence, we expect sharp improvement in GRM, especially for IRPC. About 3% of its refined output is jet fuel, is fuel oil, and another 8% of its refined output is used to produce lube base oil and downstream petrochemicals. Spreads of lube base oil has also increased substantially from US$60/ton in 4Q14 to US$700 in 1Q1. We raised GRM for all refiners by US$ /bbl for 1F to reflect both cost savings and stronger-than-expected crack spreads. Crack spreads over Dubai Crude Oil Jet Gas Oil Fuel Oil Gasoline 1Q (7.37) Q (3.67) Q (10.71) Q (10.47) 9. 1Q (8.1) Q (10.6) Q (8.44) Q (.62) Jan (1.6) Feb (1.17) Source: Company data Refinery output vs. domestic demand 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 0% 40% 30% % 0% 7% 9% 8% 18% 13% 2% 38% 19% 49% 3% % 42% 16% 14% 17% % 27% 4% 9% 3% PTTGC TOP BCP IRPC Domestic demand LPG Gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel Oil Others Source: Company data, DBS Vickers Changes to GRM forecasts (1) US$/bbl Source: DBS Vickers.9 8. BCP IRPC TOP PTTGC GRM - previous GRM - new Overweight refiners: TOP is our favourite Refiners will post strong earnings in 1Q and 2Q 1, excluding potential stock gains/loss. We recommend to BUY BCP, IRPC, and TOP, and HOLD PTTGC. We raised earnings for BCP, IRPC, and TOP by 17%, 111%, and 29%, respectively. IRPC sees the largest upward revision to earnings on our BUY list, but the share price has risen 37% YTD. We value BCP and TOP at 1.4x FY1F P/BV and IRPC at 1.2x P/BV. We applied a discount to IRPC s target valuation as earnings improvement from the upgrading and expansion programs, which are scheduled to be completed in 4Q1, should be visible from 16 onward. The decision by BCP s major shareholder PTT to sell a stake in the company should cap near-term upside. Once this issue has faded, BCP s share price will catch up with peers when it starts to deliver good earnings in the next two quarters. The large drop in oil prices has hurt PTTGC s competitiveness as its olefins margins rely on high oil prices. PTTGC s margins will be squeezed as the selling prices of its products (through HDPE for ethane and PP for LPG) have been softening. Foreign ownership in PTTGC has also fallen to a record low since it was established in 08 (through the amalgamation of PTT Aromatics and Refining and PTT Chemical). We maintain our HOLD rating for PTTGC and value the stock at.x FY1F EV/EBITDA Page 3

4 Changes to earnings forecasts and TP Earnings Earnings % change Target price Target price Rating 1F (m) 1F (m) (/sh) (/sh) previous new previous new BCP,30 6,40 17% BUY IRPC 2,674, % BUY TOP 7,69 9,872 29% BUY PTTGC 2,828 28,041 9% HOLD Source: DBS Vickers BCP: Foreign ownership vs. share price Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1 IRPC: Foreign ownership vs. share price BCP share price (RHS) TOP: Foreign ownership vs. share price Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1 PTTGC: Foreign ownership vs. share price Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1 Jun-13 Oct-13 TOP (RHS) Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 PTTGC share price (RHS) IRCP share price (RHS) Peer comparison Mkt Price Target % PE PBV Div Yield ROE Bloomberg Cap 11 Feb Price Upside (x) (x) (x) Code (US$m) () () 14F 1F 14F 1F 14F 1F 14F Rcmd BCP TB 1, % BUY IRPC TB 2, nm BUY TOP TB 3, % nm BUY PTTGC TB 8, % HOLD Page 4

5 DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>1% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, > for large caps) HOLD (-10 to +1% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, - to + for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > - over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. ( DBSVT ), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSVT and/or DBSVH) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. DBSVT accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVT, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by DBSVT and/or DBSVH (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) (b) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report ( interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the mentioned company as of 10 Feb DBSVT, DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the mentioned company as of 12 Feb 1. Page

6 3. Compensation for investment banking services: i. DBSVT, DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the mentioned company ii. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Australia Hong Kong Indonesia Malaysia This report is not for distribution into Australia. This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia. This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR") (formerly known as HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies. Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR Singapore Thailand United Kingdom Dubai United States Other jurisdictions This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at for matters arising from, or in connection with the report. This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it. This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre ( DIFC ) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 0638, 3 rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations.. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate. In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 989 Siam Tower, 9 th, 14 th -1 th Floor, Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok Thailand Tel , Fax: Page 6

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