Singapore REITs. Singapore Industry Focus. All systems go! DBS Group Research. Equity 3 Jul 2015 STI : 3,327.84

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1 Singapore Industry Focus Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 3 Jul 2015 All systems go! STI : 3, Modest changes to REIT regime Higher development limits could spark more growth M&A and internalisation a potential catalyst BUY FCT, FCOT, MINT and MAGIC Analyst Derek TAN derektan@dbs.com Mervin SONG CFA mervinsong@dbs.com Rachael TAN rachaeltan@dbs.com Widely anticipated update from MAS. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has delivered a firm message in their latest update to the REIT consultation paper that corporate governance and transparency remains high priorities and in the meantime, ensures that interests between unitholders and REIT managers/sponsors are aligned. Our thoughts on key topics of interest to market are: No changes in fee structures. Highly anticipated fee structure tweaks did materialise as MAS has elected to leave it to market to decide. The 1% and 0.5% fees payable to the REIT managers are also maintained, as the alternative proposal to peg on a cost recovery basis might be too hard to justify. We would however prefer to have a reduced fee payable (as per some S-REITs) relating to related party transactions. Gearing limits reduced to 45%. MAS has done away the need for a credit rating and settle for a standardised lower gearing limit of 45%, which might be a little low. S-REITs have on average maintained gearing at c.34%, but we have seen S- REITs acquiring assets overseas and as such, taken higher debt levels as a form of tax shelter and currency hedges. The lower limit could reduce financial flexibility and mean that S-REITs will be more prudent and selective in overseas ventures. We however believe that S-REITs will maintain their credit rating to retain pricing transparency and access to the debt capital markets. Higher development limits of 25% to spark more growth. Development limits are raised to 25% (vs 10% currently) but this allowance is subject to specific approvals from unitholders. We see this as a net positive for S-REITs, given limited acquisition growth prospects. This will enable S- REITs, especially ones with smaller portfolios to embark on development projects to optimise their portfolio returns. M&A; internalisation of REITs. A revised stance that MAS might allow REIT managers to manage two REITs and the internalisation of managers might aid the consolidation of the Singapore market, similar to the more mature US and Australian markets. Neutral impact on REITs. We see limited impact on S-REITs from the conclusions of this consultation paper. We like S- REITs with visible growth and ability to surprise through higher earnings growth potential. Top picks are FCT, FCOT, MINT and MAGIC. STOCKS Frasers Centrepoint Trust Frasers Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Source: DBS Bank Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating , BUY BUY , (1.0) 9.1 BUY , (3.3) 17.2 BUY ed-th / sa- JC

2 Key Highlights in MAS The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has responded to feedback received on the proposed regulatory changes regime governing REIT and REIT Managers. To recap, the proposed changes were mainly aimed at (i) improving corporate governance for the Singapore REIT sector, (ii) addressing the perceived agency issue between interests of unitholders and REIT managers. While we note that proposals for improving corporate governance were widely accepted and will be implemented going forward, we saw limited changes to hot topics like fee structures, gearing limits, etc. Summary of key changes to REITs and our thoughts on these hot topics : 1. Fee structure (no changes) Proposed: New performance fee payable to REIT manager to be based on a methodology/metrics to foster better alignment of interest, e.g. pegged to NAV growth or DPU growth Response from MAS: Will not prescribe a list of permissible fee computation methodology as long as it meets the principle DBS's thoughts: The proposals were seen prescriptive in the first place, in our view. The REIT market has progressed, in recent listings, to tag performance to growth in DPU and while different structures have their pros and cons, we believe a market-based approach should be sufficient to compel REIT managers to align their fee structure in the best interest of unitholders. 2. Acquisition fees/divestment fees (no changes) Proposed to be pegged on a cost recovery basis Response from MAS: Will not change current calculation (typically fee of 1% of acquisition value; 0.5% of divestment value), given that cost recovery is hard to justify DBS's thoughts: No issues, though we would prefer REIT managers to pay a slightly lower acquisition fee of 0.75% for sponsor-related acquisitions (as per some REITs which have this provision) 3. Gearing limits (lowered to 45%) Proposed a single-tier 45% gearing limit to all REITs, regardless of credit rating Response from MAS: To change limit to 45% (vs 35% for unrated REITs and 60% for REITs with credit rating DBS's thoughts: The lower gearing limit of 45% would limit REITs from over-gearing themselves and result in better financial prudence. However, given that REITs have been acquiring overseas assets to diversify and grow their portfolios, higher debt levels are taken usually as a form of tax shelter and currency hedges. As such, going forward, higher-geared REITs like (K-REIT- 41% gearing, OUEHT - 42% gearing, MAGIC 41% gearing) may need to relook at their capital structures as the market may be more comfortable that REIT managers stay below 40%. In addition, the reduced financial flexibility may limit the growth of the overall S-REIT market by creating an additional hurdle to the establishment of REITs whose assets are mainly located overseas. 4. Increased development limits (from 10% of property value to 45% of property value) Proposed to increase to 25% from 10% of property value currently. The additional 15% allowance is only for assets held by the REIT for at least three years and to hold on to the property for a further three years. Response from MAS: To implement but the use of the additional 15% allowance has to undergo specific unitholder approval DBS's thoughts: While the additional development limits will change the risk profile for REITs, we think the additional headroom will aid the REITs in growing income, given limited opportunities to grow through acquisitions in the current climate. We may see more REITs looking at optimising value/returns of their portfolios by rejuvenating them via active redevelopment. Additionally, REITs with larger portfolios may take on more greenfield projects on top of ongoing redevelopment activities. While most REITs will benefit from this rule, we see the smaller industrial REITs benefitting the most, given the bite-size quantum for individual portfolios. 5. Clarification that enables potential consolidation Following investor feedback, MAS has also clarified that 1. It is now prepared to consider applications from REIT managers to manage more than one REIT 2. REITs can be both internally and externally managed Page 2

3 DBS's thoughts: We believe MAS s response to the consultation paper will aid any potential consolidation of the REIT sector. A key hurdle for a merger between two REITs in the past was the inability of a REIT manager to manage more than one REIT in a sector. MAS has clarified that it will now be prepared to consider applications from REIT managers to manager more than one REIT. This is on the proviso that the REIT manager has the necessary expertise and it can properly mitigate any potential conflicts of interest that may arise. The only time MAS intervened in such a case was in 2009, when it indicated that it would not approve the Cambridge REIT Manager s attempts to install itself as Manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (then MacarthurCook Industrial REIT), citing potential conflicts of interest as a reason. Furthermore, as MAS has clarified that REITs can be both managed internally and externally, this will place additional pressure on existing sponsors/reit managers to perform. Otherwise, unitholders have the option of voting out a manager and hiring executives to internally manage the REIT. Page 3

4 Summary of REIT gearing levels and potential upside from changes in development limits Deposited 31Mar15 (S$m) Estimated value of development at 10% limit (S$m) Estimated value of development at 25% limit (S$m) REIT Market Cap (S$b) Gearing Rating Sponsor Office CapitaCommercial Trust A3 4, ,222 CapitaLand Frasers Commercial Trust BB 1, FCL Keppel REIT Baa2 3, Keppel Corp Retail CapitaRetail China Trust n/a 2, CapitaLand CapitaMall Trust A2 7, ,879 CapitaLand Croesus Retail Trust n/a Croesus Group Frasers Centrepoint Trust Baa1 2, FCL SPH REIT n/a 3, SPH Commercial Mapletree Commercial Trust Baa1 4, ,050 Mapletree Investments Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Baa1 5, ,337 Mapletree Investments Starhill Global Reit BBB+ 2, YTL Corporation Suntec REIT Baa2 5, ,493 ARA Industrial Ascendas India Trust n/a 1, Ascendas Ascendas REIT A3 7, ,967 Ascendas Cache Logistics Trust Baa3 1, CWT, ARA Cambridge Industrial Trust BBB- 1, NAB Mapletree Industrial Trust BBB+ 3, Mapletree Investments Mapletree Logistics Trust Baa1 4, ,158 Mapletree Investments Soilbuild Business Space REIT BBB- 1, Soilbuild Group Hospitality Ascendas Hospitality Trust n/a Ascendas Ascott Residence Trust Baa3 3, CapitaLand CDL Hospitality Trusts BBB- 2, M&C, City Developments Far East Hospitality Trust BBB- 2, Far East Organisation Frasers Hospitality Trust n/a 1, FCL OUE Hospitality Trust n/a 2, OUE Healthcare Parkway Life REIT BBB 1, IHH Religare Health Trust n/a Religare Others Keppel DC REIT n/a 1, Keppel Corp REITS not covered by DBS AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT BBB- 1, AIMS and AMP Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Baa3 1, Lippo Group Sabana Shari'ah Compliant REIT BBB- 1, Vibrant Group Saizen REIT Ba J apan Regional Assets Manager V iva Industrial REIT n/a Ho Lee Group and Kim Seng Holdings FIRST Reit n/a 1, Lippo Group * Ascendas India Trust and Croesus Retail Trust are business trust which are not impacted by the REIT gearing limits Source: REIT Managers, DBS Bank Source: REIT Managers, DBS Bank Page 4

5 Peer Comparison REIT FYE Price Rec Target Price Mkt Cap Total Return Yield P/NAV (S$) (S$) S$'m (%) FY15/16F FY16/17F FY17/18F FY15/16F Office CCT Dec 1.55 Hold ,555 23% 5.9% 6.5% 6.8% 0.89 FCOT Sep 1.54 Buy ,052 23% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 0.93 KREIT Dec 1.15 Buy ,649 21% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 0.81 Retail CRCT Dec 1.72 Hold ,445 2% 6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 1.08 CMT Dec 2.12 Hold ,343 9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% 1.17 CRT Jun 0.94 Buy % 8.5% 8.0% 7.9% 1.21 FCT Sep 2.08 Buy ,906 12% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 1.12 SPH REIT Aug 1.05 Hold ,652 3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% 1.13 Commercial MCT Mar 1.46 Hold ,087 17% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 1.18 MAGIC Mar 1.02 Buy ,787 17% 7.1% 7.4% 7.3% 0.86 SGREIT Dec 0.88 Buy ,919 9% 5.9% 6.5% 6.7% 0.93 Suntec Dec 1.72 Hold ,306 8% 5.6% 5.9% 6.2% 0.83 Industrial a-itrust Mar 0.91 Buy % 6.1% 6.1% 6.7% 1.34 A-REIT Mar 2.41 Hold ,803 16% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 1.16 Cache Dec 1.15 Buy % 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 1.19 CREIT Dec 0.69 Hold % 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 1.02 MINT Mar 1.56 Buy ,738 15% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4% 1.18 MLT Mar 1.13 Buy ,798 23% 6.6% 6.9% 7.1% 1.10 SBREIT Dec 0.86 Buy % 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 1.08 Hospitality ASCHT Mar 0.71 Buy % 8.4% 8.5% ART Dec 1.30 Buy ,002 13% 6.8% 7.1% 7.6% 0.97 CDREIT Dec 1.61 Hold ,584 17% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 0.98 FEHT Dec 0.79 Hold ,398 4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.81 FHT Sep Buy ,007 22% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 0.96 OUEHT Dec Buy ,243 12% 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% 1.04 Healthcare P-Life Dec 2.40 Buy ,452 16% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 1.40 RHT Mar 1.03 Hold % 7.1% 8.2% 9.0% 1.09 Others KDCREIT Dec 1.06 Buy % 6.2% 6.7% 7.1% 1.19 Sector Average 62, % 6.6% 6.7% 1.07 Source: REIT Managers, DBS Bank Page 5

6 DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the DBS Vickers Group ) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the DBS Group )) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. 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The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. 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They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published,the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report ( interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). Page 6

7 COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( DBSVS ), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 May 2015 except CapitaLand Commercial Trust, Frasers Commercial Trust, Keppel REIT, CapitaLand Retail China Trust, CapitaLand Mall Trust, Croesus Retail Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Starhill Global REIT, Suntec REIT, Ascendas India Trust, Ascendas REIT, Cache Logistics Trust, Cambridge Industrial Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Soilbuild Business Space Reit, Ascendas Hospitality Trust, Ascott Residence Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust, Frasers Hospitality Trust, OUE Hospitality Trust, Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust, Religare Health Trust, Keppel DC REIT 2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of Croesus Retail Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Starhill Global REIT, Soilbuild Business Space Reit, Ascott Residence Trust, Far East Hospitality Trust, Frasers Hospitality Trust, Keppel DC REIT and 5% of Croesus Retail Trust mentioned as of 31 May Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Croesus Retail Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Ascendas REIT, Soilbuild Business Space Reit, Ascott Residence Trust, Frasers Hospitality Trust, Keppel DC REIT DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. 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In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies. Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR Singapore Thailand This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at for matters arising from, or in connection with the report. This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it. Page 7

8 United Kingdom Dubai United States Other jurisdictions This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre ( DIFC ) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box , 3 rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate. In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. DBS Bank Ltd. 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore Tel Company Regn. No E Page 8