Ascendas REIT (LHS) Singapore Company Guide. BUY Last Traded Price ( 5 Dec 2016): S$2.36 (STI : 2,943.05) Price Target 12-mth: S$2.

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1 Singapore Company Guide Version 6 Bloomberg: AREIT SP Reuters: AEMN.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 6 Dec 2016 BUY Last Traded Price ( 5 Dec 2016): S$2.36 (STI : 2,943.05) Price Target 12-mth: S$2.65 (12% upside) Potential Catalyst: Acquisitions Where we differ: Estimates are in line with consensus Analyst Derek TAN derektan@dbs.com Mervin SONG CFA mervinsong@dbs.com Singapore Research Team equityresearch@dbs.com What s New Proposed value-accretive acquisition of 12, 14 and 16 Science Park Drive Lengthens REIT s earnings visibility and protects REIT from downside Conservative capital management enables REIT to stand tall in the face of rate hikes Price Relative S$ Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 (LHS) Relative STI (RHS) Relative Index Forecasts and Valuation FY Mar (S$m) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F Gross Revenue Net Property Inc Total Return Distribution Inc EPU (S cts) EPU Gth (%) 0 (5) 10 1 DPU (S cts) DPU Gth (%) (1) NAV per shr (S cts) PE (X) Distribution Yield (%) P/NAV (x) Aggregate Leverage (%) ROAE (%) Distn. Inc Chng (%): Consensus DPU (S cts): Other Broker Recs: B: 15 S: 0 H: 7 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Takes three at a go! Maintain BUY, TP maintained at S$2.65. (A-REIT) offers attractive yields of close to 6.6% to investors looking for steady returns in the current volatile market. A low leverage of 35% supports any potential M&A activities which the REIT has the ability and access to deliver on. Acquisition that ticks the right boxes. A-REIT continues to deepen its exposure to the Business Parks/Science Parks Space with an acquisition of three properties at a price of S$420m. The acquisition ticks most of the boxes long lease tenure (16.5 years with annual escalations of 2.0%-2.5%), long unexpired land lease tenure (65.7 years) and offers investors a deeper exposure to a sector (R&D) that continues to grow. The yield of 6.0% (all-in cost) appears low at first glance but we believe it reflects the properties relatively young age (2.0 years) and long land lease tenure. Accretion is projected to be marginal at 0.5%. We have yet to factor in the acquisition, pending EGM. Conservative capital management. A-REIT stands tall in the face of rising interest rates going into 2017 with a spread-out debt expiry profile of 3.8 years, implying that the REIT does not face any major refinancing in any one year. The manager adopts a prudent interest rate risk management strategy with a weighted average cost of debt of 3.0% with 78.0% hedged into fixed rates. Valuation: Our DCF-based TP is maintained at S$2.65 as a result of additional contribution from acquisitions. Maintain BUY on the back of total potential returns of c.15% Key Risks to Our View: Interest rate risk. An increase in lending rates will negatively impact dividend distributions. However, A-REIT's strategy has been to actively manage its exposure and it currently has c.70% of its interest cost hedged into fixed rates. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,840 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 6,703 / 4,723 Major Shareholders (%) Ascendas Pte Ltd 20.0 Mondrian Investment 8.0 Blackrock 5.1 Free Float (%) m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 21.9 ICB Industry : Real Estate / Real Estate Investment Trust ed: CK / sa: YM, PY

2 WHAT S NEW Takes three in Singapore Acquisition of two quality Science Park Properties proposed the acquisition of 12, 14 and 16 Science Park Drive, collectively known as DSO National Laboratories Buildings & DNV GL Technology Centre for a combined acquisition price of S$420.0m (all-in acquisition cost of S$437.5m including stamp duties and acquisition fee). The acquisition price is at a c.2% discount to two independent valuers valuation. The properties are fairly new and completed in 2013 (14 & 16 Science Park Drive) and 2015 (12 Science Park drive) and sits on a fairly long unexpired land lease of close to 64.7 years. The vendors occupy 100% of the properties and continue to lease them for an additional 16.5 years with annual escalations of 2.0%-2.5%, implying a steady organic growth profile. Benefits of the deal Value-accretive deal with long lease offers long-term sustainability. As a pioneer in the Business Parks and Science Parks space, we continue to like A-REIT for its continued access and ability to tap its sponsor for quality and accretive acquisitions in Singapore. The properties relative young age enables the REIT to refresh its portfolio and will cement the REIT s already significant market share within the Science Park space. The long lease of 16.5 years will increase the REIT s weighted average lease expiry to 4.4 years (from 3.7 years). Initial yield of 6.3% (6.0% inclusive of acquisition cost). The initial yield of 6.0% is at the lower end of the A-REITs book valuation of 5.75%-6.75% for its other Science Park and Business Park properties. While it seems low at first glance, we believe it reflects the properties young age of 2.0 years and also the fairly long underlying land lease expiry of 64.5 years (which is more than double the typical industrial land tenures of c.30 years). Part fund by new equity; 0.5% accretive to DPS and valuations. A-REIT is proposing to fund S$100m of the acquisition (c.24% of the acquisition price) through new equity to be issued to the sponsor, Ascendas Singbridge. DPUs are expected to increase marginally to 0.5%, with gearing expected to increase marginally to c.35.6% (vs the current estimated 34.5%). This is within management s comfortable range of 35%-40%. Our numbers are yet to be adjusted, pending the upcoming EGM. Acquisition Summary Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank Page 2

3 CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Earnings Drivers: Rebound in occupancy rates to provide upside to earnings. A- REIT s Singapore portfolio occupancy rates dipped marginally to 87.9%, compared to c.88.3% in 1QFY17 and 89.9% a year ago. The dip was mainly due to non-renewals of leases at 40 Penjuru Lane and Pioneer hub. Given A-REIT s scale in Singapore, the manager continues to attract a diverse tenant base to its properties, despite the current economic slowdown. The manager is still seeing expansionary and new demand mainly from businesses in the transport and storage, distribution, and electronics sectors. Looking ahead, with close to 13% of the portfolio still vacant, the ability to back-fill the unoccupied space provides potential upside to our earnings estimates. A long portfolio-weighted average lease expiry (WALE) profile of 3.7 years (4.4 years post latest acquisition) means good earnings visibility for the REIT. S$ m Net Property Income and Margins (%) 77.3% 75.3% 73.3% 71.3% 69.3% 67.3% 65.3% 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F Net Property Income Net Property Income Margin % Net Property Income and Margins (%) 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% Still positive rental reversions, but spread will likely narrow. Rental reversionary trends are moderating and reached a low of 0.9% in 2QFY17. Looking ahead, leases representing close to 12% in Singapore and given the narrowing spread between passing and market rents, we expect rental reversionary trends to remain flattish or even turn negative. In Australia, given the well-spread lease expiry profile, we do not anticipate too much volatility in the rentals and the manager is pro-actively engaging tenants ahead of expiry to renew their leases. In Australia, the manager is seeing a pick-up in demand for space in the recent quarter and reported a 4.2 percentage point increase in occupancy to 94.2%, back-filling most of the empty space in the previous quarter. Australia continues to offer the strongest earnings visibility with a WALE of 5.1 years Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 Net Property Income Net Property Income Margin % Distribution Paid / Net Operating CF 62% (x) 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F Inorganic growth to drive contributions in Australia and Singapore. A-REIT has regularly embarked on acquisitions and development projects, which have helped the REIT to deliver sustained growth in distributions over time. Given the limited opportunities in Singapore and the fragmented market in China, the manager has looked overseas for higher returns. The manager remains focused on deepening its presence in the core markets of Singapore, Australia and China, when the opportunity arises. Apart from the recently acquired acquisitions in Australia (A$179m in total), A-REIT will be embarking on a new asset enhancement project at 50 Kallang Avenue for S$45.2m which will be anchored by a new tenant on a long lease. A-REIT has in total S$113.1m in asset enhancements currently underway. The manager is also looking at further asset refurbishment options at its portfolio in Singapore in order to position the assets to capture changing tenant needs. Source: Company, DBS Bank Interest Cover (x) (x) A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F Page 3

4 Balance Sheet: Optimal gearing level of c.34%. A-REIT s gearing is estimated to dip to 34% (from c.37%) upon the assumed full conversion of S$300m of Exchange Collateralised Securities (ECS) by end of FY17F. This will be at the lower end of management s comfortable 35-40% range. We believe that there is still capacity for management to utilise its debt headroom for further acquisitions but any significant deals could mean potential issuance of new equity. 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Aggregate Leverage (%) 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F Well-staggered debt maturity profile. The manager adopts a prudent interest rate risk management strategy with a weighted average cost of debt of 3.0% with 78.0% hedged into fixed rates. The debt tenure is long at 3.8 years, with a well spreadout refinancing profile ensuring no concentration risk. Share Price Drivers: Direction of 10-year long bonds impacts share price. Seen by investors as a key S-REIT proxy, A-REIT s share price has typically been closely linked to investors perception on the direction of the US benchmark 10-year bond yields. A fall in 10-year bond yields on the back of a delay in Fed hikes is likely to mean a higher share price. Capital recycling strategy. With limited acquisition opportunities in Singapore, A-REIT regularly looks to divest older, loweryielding properties and re-cycle the capital into assetenhancement exercises (AEI), development projects or acquisitions. The aim is to optimise the portfolio returns and distributions which have a positive impact on its share price. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% (%) ROE (%) 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F Distribution Yield (%) +2sd: 7% +1sd: 6.6% Avg: 6.2% 1sd: 5.7% 2sd: 5.3% Key Risks: Interest rate risk. Any increase in interest rates will result in higher interest payments, which will reduce income available for distribution and result in lower distribution per unit (DPU) to unitholders. Economic risk. A deterioration in the economic outlook could have a negative impact on industrial rents and occupancies as companies cut back production and require less space, given that industrial rents have a strong correlation with GDP growth. Company Background A-REIT is Singapore s first and largest listed business space and industrial real estate investment trust. It has a diversified portfolio comprising assets in Singapore, China and Australia. A-REIT is managed by Ascendas Funds Management (S) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Singapore-based Ascendas Group Source: Company, DBS Bank PB Band (x) (x) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 +2sd: 1.32x +1sd: 1.24x Avg: 1.17x 1sd: 1.09x 2sd: 1.01x Page 4

5 Income Statement (S$m) FY Mar 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F Gross revenue Property expenses (178) (211) (227) (238) (241) Net Property Income Other Operating expenses (40.8) (43.8) (67.4) (55.2) (55.4) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (5.7) Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (35.9) (105) (77.5) (109) (108) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Net Income Tax (23.2) (6.7) (25.1) (4.2) (4.7) Minority Interest Preference Dividend (6.6) (15.0) (15.0) Net Income After Tax Total Return Non-tax deductible Items (8.7) Net Inc available for Dist Growth & Ratio Revenue Gth (%) N Property Inc Gth (%) Net Inc Gth (%) Dist. Payout Ratio (%) Net Prop Inc Margins (%) Net Income Margins (%) Dist to revenue (%) Managers & Trustee s fees ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Int. Cover (x) Source: Company, DBS Bank Driven by acquisitions and development projects. Page 5

6 Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$m) FY Mar 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 Gross revenue Property expenses (58.8) (51.6) (60.6) (58.1) (53.0) Net Property Income Other Operating expenses (12.2) (21.3) (23.1) (14.9) (15.7) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (12.6) (9.3) (13.2) Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (5.3) (22.8) (37.0) (36.8) (28.2) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Net Income Tax (0.7) (7.3) (16.7) (2.1) 13.7 Minority Interest Net Income after Tax Total Return Non-tax deductible Items (23.9) (7.8) Net Inc available for Dist Growth & Ratio Revenue Gth (%) (1) N Property Inc Gth (%) Net Inc Gth (%) 41 (24) (42) Net Prop Inc Margin (%) Dist. Payout Ratio (%) Balance Sheet (S$m) FY Mar 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F Investment Properties 6,923 7,868 9,599 9,665 9,695 Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets 7,358 8,160 9,876 9,903 9,942 ST Debt ,180 1,190 1,220 Creditor Other Current Liab LT Debt 1,231 2,442 2,485 2,195 2,205 Other LT Liabilities Unit holders funds 4,849 5,014 5,797 6,085 6,074 Minority Interests Total Funds & Liabilities 7,358 8,160 9,876 9,903 9,942 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (136) (105) (90.6) (95.1) (98.0) Net Cash/(Debt) (2,057) (2,686) (3,608) (3,376) (3,409) Ratio Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Aggregate Leverage (%) Z-Score (X) Source: Company, DBS Bank Steady gearing profile Page 6

7 Cash Flow Statement (S$m) FY Mar 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F Pre-Tax Income Dep. & Amort Tax Paid (0.8) (2.4) (4.5) (7.9) (4.2) Associates &JV Inc/(Loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1.4) (10.2) Other Operating CF (6.6) (15.0) (15.0) Net Operating CF Net Invt in Properties Other Invts (net) (94.7) (643) (1,496) (66.0) (30.0) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc. & JVs Other Investing CF (40.2) Net Investing CF (135) (638) (1,491) (60.5) (24.5) Distribution Paid (326) (261) (442) (427) (446) Chg in Gross Debt ,218 (280) 40.0 New units issued (0.1) Other Financing CF (70.8) (68.1) Net Financing CF (227) 249 1,118 (407) (406) Currency Adjustments (1.7) Chg in Cash 47.8 (25.7) 9.56 (47.6) 6.67 Operating CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts) Source: Company, DBS Bank Target Price & Ratings History S$ 12-mth 2.62 Date of Closing S.No. Target Rating Report Price Price : 10 Dec BUY : 14 Dec BUY : 08 Jan BUY : 04 Feb BUY : 18 May BUY 6: 10 Jun BUY : 12 Jul BUY : 21 Jul BUY 9: 22 Jul BUY : 22 Aug BUY 11: 29 Aug BUY : 20 Sep BUY Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 13: 26 Sep BUY 14: 21 Oct BUY Note : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions. 15: 08 Nov BUY Source: DBS Bank Analyst: Derek TAN Mervin SONG CFA Singapore Research Team Page 7

8 DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 6 Dec :06:26 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 6 Dec :52:04 (SGT) GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. 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9 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. As of 6 Dec 2016, the analyst(s) and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst(s), do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report ( interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). 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