1Q/13 Analyst Meeting. INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL BANGKOK MAY 14, hrs

Transcription

1 1Q/13 Analyst Meeting INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL BANGKOK MAY 14, hrs

2 Disclaimer This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations. 2

3 Agenda 1Q/13 Business Highlights Strategy and Execution 1Q/13 Operating Results Market Outlook 3

4 1Q/13 Business Environment and Operations Weaker economic data showed that uncertainty remained. THB strengthening contributed to FX gain Oil price remained volatile though more stable than previous year Price and spreads stronger following seasonal demand Diesel-Dubai 20 usd/bbl 11% YoY 0% QoQ PX-Cond 681 usd/ton 22% YoY 12% QoQ HDPE 1,482 usd/ton 6% YoY 6% QoQ Overall utilization rate for all business units increased 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Refinery 101% 101% 101% Aromatics 73% 91% 92% Olefins 85% 88% 97% Polymers 93% 100% 109% MEG 79% 96% 97% Green - FA 109% 94% 132% Green - ME 92% 97% 101% Phenol 97% 129% 126% Dubai (USD/bbl) 4Q/ Q/ Q/ THB against USD (THB/USD) Geopolitic al risk Uncertainty of stability in EU US monetary policy and potential stimulus package Disappointed China economic data 4

5 1Q/13 Key Achievement and Milestone Streamline and strengthen business structure Completed amalgamation between PTTUT and IPT. PTTGC holds 30.31% in mergedco GPSC to strengthen business operation of utilities Combined BPE and PTTPE into PTTGC to streamline business integration Acquired remaining 40% shareholding of PPCL from PTT to pursue its downstream investment and capture the fully integrated value of Phenol chain. PTTGC currently holds 100% since May 2, Develop a Solid Business Plant availability with flat out utilization rates Excellence programs achieved as planned- contributed USD 50.6 mn Strengthening USD exposure contributed to FX gain of THB 1,986 mn Paid 3.40 THB/share of dividend, 45% payout ratio Pursue Three-Pillar Strategy HoA with Indonesia s PT Pertamina for future investment in new petrochemical complex (world scale naphtha cracker and downstream derivatives) MoU with IRPC for feasibility study on downstream products including polyol and styrenic Mechanical completion at Myriant s Succinid Acid plant in Louisiana (14 ktpa) Commissioning at Natureworks PLA expansion unit to expand PLA capacity from 140 ktpa to 150 ktpa 5

6 Key Financial Highlights Unit in THB million 1Q/2012* 4Q/2012* 1Q/2013 YoY QoQ Revenue 133, , ,309 6% -2% EBITDA 14,988 16,553 16,419 10% -1% EBITDA Margin (%) 11% 11% 12% 1% 1% Net Income 9,852 10,388 12,075 23% 16% EPS (THB/share) % 17% Adjusted EBITDA** 11,483 16,584 16,914 47% 2% Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 9% 11% 12% 3% 1% Revenue increased 6% YoY primarily from sales increase in Aromatics and Olefins AROII turnaround 30 days in 1Q/12, I4-2 turnaround 33 days in 1Q/12 Net Income increased 23% YoY and 16% QoQ due mainly to higher utilization rates and higher product prices *Changes in the classification of catalyst, from operating expenses to be in the depreciation and amortization, according to the accounting policy effective since 1Q/2013 onward. **Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory and NRV) and excluding impact of commodity hedging 6

7 Price higher YoY, QoQ while Volume in Mixed Performance YoY Price/Spread Trend Diesel-Dubai PX-Cond BZ-Cond Ethylene HDPE MEG ME-CPO Phenol 1Q/13 Key Product Price/Spread Indicators * * 4% 5% 3% 9% 6% 12% 22% 148% Diesel-Dubai PX-Cond BZ-Cond Ethylene HDPE MEG ME-CPO Phenol 0% 0% 3% 3% QoQ Price/Spread Trend 4% 6% 9% 12% YoY Sales Volume Trend 1Q/13 Key Sales Volume Indicators QoQ Sales Volume Trend Refinery -1% Aromatics (BTX) Olefins Polymers MEG Green Phenol & BPA 9% 11% 14% 15% 18% 20% Refinery Aromatics (BTX) Olefins Polymers MEG Green -18% Phenol& BPA -17% -2% -4% 3% 11% 19% Gas Feed 21% Gas Feed 14% *Diesel 0.05 sulfur 7

8 1Q/13 Sales Portion by Business Unit Sales portion in quantity (bbl/ton) Refinery Export 23% Green (ME, FA) Export 28% Domestic 77% Domestic 72% Aromatics Export 31% Domestic 69% Total Sales THB 141 billion EO-Based Export 65% Export 7% Olefins Domestic 93% Polymers Domestic 35% By Thailand s Market Share HDPE LDPE Import 21% PTTGC 40% Others 39% Import 28% Others 33% PTTGC 39% Export 15% Domestic 85% LLDPE Import 31% Others 35% PTTGC 34% 8

9 Agenda 1Q/13 Business Highlights Strategy and Execution 1Q/13 Operating Results Market Outlook 9

10 Execution Led by a Well Defined Strategy Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Methodical approach to achieving business excellence Operational Excellence Marketing Excellence Synergy Project Excellence Debottleneck CAPEX Excellence Reliability improvement Energy efficiency improvement Cost reduction 12 projects completed out of 105 Product development Customer / Portfolio mgmt Strategic pricing Product upgrade Cost saving from share tank and facility Steam Cost reduction 1Q/13 EBITDA uplift USD 0.16 mn USD 45.9 mn USD 4.7 mn PX expansion BV Project Quench oil tower modification Capital Project Management Engineering Procurement Construction Project Mgmt. In 1Q/13, we achieved EBITDA uplift of USD mn from Operational Excellence, Marketing Excellence, and Synergy Project Excellence FY13 Target EBITDA uplift for all Excellence programs USD 177 mn 10

11 1 Operational Excellence Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Business Unit 1Q/13 Key Achievement EBITDA Uplift (USD mn) Aromatics Reliability Improvement Install Ultrasonic Scale prevention at ARO I to protect fouling at condensate splitter Reroute line for crude toluene at ARO II to minimize energy consumption 0.12 Polymers Energy Efficiency Improvement Install Advanced Process Control (APC) software at polymer plants (LLDPE) to optimize process condition and mitigate severity with automatic response Cost Reduction Feedstock Quality Improvement Project (Butene I) - Install impurity removal unit to remove impurity from Butene I feedstock 0.04 Total Operational Excellence

12 2 Marketing Excellence Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Business Unit Refinery 1Q/13 Key Achievement Divert exported reformate to domestic G-base blending, to capture opportunity from gasoline 91 suspension Synergy with IRPC to upgrade high sulfur Diesel/Jet for domestic market EBITDA Uplift ( USD mn) 4.1 Aromatics Capture higher premium by penetrating into BZ end-user market in China. Location swap within PTT Group to maximize value creation. 0.9 Olefins Divert all recycled mixed C4s to export market. Capture more value from mixed C4s quality premium (higher butadiene content) Polymer EO-Based Green Expand more HDPE market share (35% in 1Q/12 to 40% in 1Q/13) Introduce 6 new High Value Product (HVP) grade polymers (e.g. for food packaging/traffic cone) Capture high-value Ethanolamine domestic customers, e.g. global personal care product players, via supply contract Redirect export to high-value markets, e.g. Japan, Australia. Increase Methyl Ester domestic market share (24% to 26%) by offering differentiated product quality and service, e.g. 24-hour service. Penetrate into high-value Fatty Alcohol segment, e.g. cosmetic segment Total Marketing Excellence

13 3 Synergy Projects Excellence Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Synergy Project 1Q/13 Key Achievement EBITDA Uplift (USD mn) OFFGAS Project progress 10.88%, as planned. Expects completion 4Q/14. Field engineering for tie-in point during Refinery TA in May 2013 C3/C4 3 STREAM Completed end 2012 though benefit depending upon economic and supply availability of each feed type subject to HDPE spread Completed end 2012, first batch transferred to refinery in Dec Pure Hydrogen via New PSA Project progress 65.72%, as planned. Expects completion 2Q/14 13

14 4 Debottleneck/By-Product Value Enhancement Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models 2014 BV Project/ C4 Value Enhancement Quench Oil Tower Modification 2015 AROII Debottleneck PTTPE Cracker and Polymer Plants Debottleneck 14

15 4 Debottleneck: Investment Update Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Project Detail Status BV Project/ C4 Value Enhancement Upgrade mixed C4 to butadiene (75 ktpa), and butene-i (25 ktpa) Investment USD262 mn IRR 17.4%, Completion 1Q/14 Under construction Work progress 74.1%, as scheduled Steel Structure Erection Equipment Erection Work 15

16 4 Debottleneck: Investment Update Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Project Detail Status Quench Oil Tower Modification Establish an effective operation of the Quench System with new design case handling higher rate of mixed vapor hydrocarbon cracking feed flow To reduce naphtha to gas portion (liquid/vapor ratio) from 0.95 to 0.60, (accounting for the increase gas portion of 18ton/hr) at I4-1 (mixed feed cracker) Investment USD 3mn, Completion 4Q/14 Under basic engineering design package Vapor Flute 16

17 4 Debottleneck: Investment Update Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Project Detail Status AROII Debottleneck Increases existing capacity at AROII from 655 ktpa to 770 ktpa (total PX capacity from AROI and ARO II to increase from 1,195 ktpa to 1,310 ktpa) Completion 3Q/15 BED and FEED completed Granted BOI approval Pending for EIA approval Submission of bidding for EPC in Jul-Aug 2013 ARO II PAREX 17

18 Upcoming Key Projects Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Emerging Business Models Rationale: Competitive advantage over size and vicinity World-scale integrated petrochemical complex covering upstream to downstream Vicinity adjacent to demand also projected to grow significantly Pave a way towards HVS product offering Timeline: Signed HoA in Apr 2013 and target to sign JV agreement by Dec 2013 CAPEX: Estimated investment of USD 4 bn, with D/E > 1 under project finance Rationale: Expand downstream product portfolio (PC and PO chain) and support HVS strategic initiative Timeline: Signed HoA with Petronas and Itochu, target completion by 2016 for feasibility study CAPEX: Estimated USD 2 bn, PTTGC expects to contribute 25% of the equity component Rationale: Secure access to China downstream market Timeline: Signed MoU to jointly explore potential collaboration e.g., PU and PC chains and Bio-based chemicals CAPEX: TBA 18

19 Agenda 1Q/13 Business Highlights Strategy and Execution 1Q/13 Operating Results Market Outlook 19

20 Performance Summary 1Q/13 vs. 4Q/12 Refinery Diesel spread flat QoQ; volume decreased 2% - GRM down to 4.37 usd/bbl upon higher feed cost Aromatics BZ spread flat QoQ, PX spread up 12%; BTX volume down 4% - P2F increased 2% to 394 usd/ton; lower discount on feed Olefins and Olefins Derivatives Average prices all went up; higher gas feed (up 14%) Green (ME) ME spread up 4%, higher volume 11% - U-rates exceeded 100% Phenol Price up 3%; volume decreased 17% - BPA unplanned shutdown 25 days in 1Q/13 20

21 Segmental Results 1Q/13 Olefins and Olefins Derivatives Business contributed greatly to EBITDA Revenue Breakdown Unit in THB bn Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown Unit in THB bn Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/ Refinery Aromatics Olefins and Derivatives 23% 21% Green HVS Others 58% Refinery Aromatics Olefins and Derivative Green HVS Others 1Q/13 Revenue Breakdown (%) 1Q/13 EBITDA Breakdown (%) Adjusted EBITDA Margin by Core BU Phenol Others Green HVS Others Green 0.1% 5% 6% 3% 2% 2% Refinery 1Q/12 4Q12 1Q/13 11% Refinery 2% 3% 3% Olefins and Aromatics 5% 14% 14% Olefins Refinery Olefins and Aromatics Derivatives THB 45% Olefins THB Olefins and Derivatives 27% 28% 30% 26% 141 Bn Derivatives 16 Bn HVS (Phenol+Vencorex) 5% 9% 4% Aromatics 21

22 Refinery BU Performance Market GRM softened QoQ upon slightly higher feed price Total Production Volume (mbbl) mbbl 16.0 mbbl Millions usd/bbl 7% 22% 11% 47% 7% 22% 18.4 mbbl 7% 19% 8% 13% 50% 47% 13% 14% 13% 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Others Ref+LN Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ Market GRM % -6% Hedging Gain/(Loss) % -58% Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV % 44% Accounting GRM % -20% Jet Diesel Fuel Oil Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ Dubai crude % 1% ULG95-Dubai % 36% Jet-Dubai % 5% Diesel-Dubai % 0% FO-Dubai % -22% Total Intake in KBD 0 101% 101% 101% 35 Crude CR+Other feed CDU rate Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Unit in THB bn EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 CDU U-Rate % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

23 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Aromatics BU Performance P2F higher YoY and QoQ upon improved Total Production Volume in Kton usd/ton 1,110 10% 28% 23% 16% 23% 1,488 11% 30% 1,357 11% 27% 24% 23% 14% 15% 22% 24% 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Total intake in kton Others Ref+LN 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ P2F % 2% Hedging Gain/(Loss) % -100% Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV % -50% Accounting P2F % 3% CR BZ+CX PX group Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ Condensate 1, % 2% PX FECP-Condensate % 12% BZ SPOT KR-Condensate % 0% Naphtha-Condensate % -11% % 1, ,006 Condensate Reformate + Other feed BTX rate 17% 83% 91% 1,614 92% % 1, ,359 1,233 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Unit in THB bn EBITDA 84% Adjusted EBITDA 16% 84% Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 23

24 Olefins and Olefins Derivatives BU Performance Sales Volume in Kton and Utilization Rates 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 % +/ - Sales Volume Utilization Rate Sales Volume Utilization Rate Sales Volume Utilization Rate YoY QoQ Olefins* % % % 14% 19% HDPE % % % 19% 7% LLDPE % % % 3% -13% LDPE 60 71% 63 71% % 26% 19% Total Polyethylene % % % 15% 3% MEG 69 79% % 83 97% 20% -18% *Olefins external sales Price and Spread in USD/ton 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 % + / - YoY % + / - QoQ Naphtha 1, % 2% HDPE 1,395 1,393 1,482 6% 6% HDPE-Naphtha % 16% LLDPE 1,318 1,399 1,477 12% 6% LLDEP-Naphtha % 13% LDPE 1,391 1,369 1,459 5% 7% LDPE-Naphtha % 17% MEG 1,237 1,247 1,282 4% 3% MEG-0.65 Ethylene % -9% Total intake Gas Naphtha 883 kton 879 kton 1,012 kton 16% 11% 12% 84% 89% 88% 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Olefins and Olefins Derivatives Adjusted EBITDA Margin in THB bn Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 24

25 Phenol Performance Sales Volume in Kton and Utilization Rates Phenol BPA Phenol U-rate BPA U-rate 97% % Phenol and BPA Market Spread in USD/ton* Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ Phenol 1,473 1,484 1,523 3% 3% Phenol-BZ % 29% BPA-Phenol % 47% Phenol and BPA P2F in USD/ton* * Source: PPCL 129% 126% 35 83% 25 60% 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 Quarter +/- 1Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 YoY QoQ Phenol Margin % 12% BPA Margin % 70% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sales Portion of all Products in Quantity (%) Domestic % Export 75% Phenol Adjusted EBITDA in THB bn 0.23 Contract 93% Spot 7% Contract 53% Spot 47% Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 P2F = PH AC BZ PY P2F = BPA PH AC 25

26 Profit and Loss Statement THB Mn % THB Mn % THB Mn % THB Mn % THB Mn % 1 Sales Revenue 133, , , , , Feedstock Cost -114, , , , , Product to Feed Margin 19, , , , , Variable Cost -3, , , , , Fixed Cost -3, , , Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV 3, , Gain/(Loss) Hedging Commodity Other Income , , SG&A -2, , , EBITDA 14, , , , Depreciation & Amortization -3, , , EBIT 11, , , , Financing Expenses (Net Interest 13 Earned) -1, , , FX Gain/(Loss) 1, , , Shares of gain/(loss) from investments Corporate Income Tax , Net Profit After Income Tax 10, , , , , Portion of Net Profit: 1Q/2012 4Q/2012 1Q/2013 YoY QoQ 18 Shareholders 9, , , , , Minorities Adjusted EBITDA 11, , , ,

27 Strong Financial Position Free Cash Flow for Investment Balance Sheet (THB bn) THB bn FCF for Investment Debt Service and Dividend Cash from Operation 54.9 Cash + ST Investment CA THB 436 bn THB 420 bn Liab. IBD Q/12 2Q/12 3Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 PPE Non CA As of Dec 31, 2012 As of Mar 31, 2013 Share holders Equity Key Financial Ratios Dec 31, 12 Mar 31, 13 ROA 10.43% 11.13% ROE 16.16% 16.39% Net IBD / Equity Net IBD / EBITDA Moody s S&P Agency Credit Rating Baa2 BBB 27

28 Diversified Debt Exposure and Repayment Schedule Debt Profile as at Mar 31, 2013 ST Loan Debenture 2% LT Loan 37% USD & Foreign 41% THB 61% 59% Fixed 31% Floated 69% THB Billion Maturity of Financial Debt as at Mar 31, PTTGC PPCL Others Cost of long term debts ~ 5.0% (Include W/H Tax) Average loan life after refinancing Years Treasury policy Net IBD to Equity ratio of 0.7x Net IBD to EBITDA ratio of 2.4x 28

29 Approved CAPEX Plan Unit: Million USD mn USD Y2013 Y2014 Core Uplift Synergy Projects & BV Project 1 Step Adjacencies Vencorex Plant Improvement & Phenol Green Emery downstream investment Annual Maintenance* Core uplift 1-step adjacencies Green * 1. Maintenance CAPEX for subject to board approval 2. Exclude one-off Maintenance CAPEX 29

30 Uncommitted CAPEX Plan USD 4.5 bn Green 5% Core Uplift 31% 1 Step Adjacencies 64%* *64% excluding the purchase of PPCL as already included in approved CAPEX 30

31 Agenda 1Q/13 Business Highlights Strategy and Execution 1Q/13 Operating Results Market Outlook 31

32 Key Trends for Petrochemical Market in 2013 World GDP revised to 3.3%, down from 3.5% in January China s economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.7% in 1Q/13, down from 7.9% in 4Q/12* - Crude oil prices expected to remain in the range of usd/bbl following mixed economic sentiment. - Ethylene price is seen as volatile following crude prices. However, 1H13 price is supported by downstream derivatives demand (beverage & packaging) on the back of summer season in EU and US - HDPE price expected to improve from previous year from improving demand - PX spread in 2H13 expected to be softened than 1H13 from new PX capacities - BZ spread is expected to maintained in 2H13 due to the limited feedstock (Pygas) from lower run rate of Naphtha crackers, and improved BZ demand driven by SM - Phenol price will continue to be pressured by supply/demand imbalance with 800 ktpa in 2013, and 1 mtpa in 2014 coupled with rising feedstock cost - Demand should however pick up in 2016 with less capacity addition *IMF, Apr

33 PTTGC s Way Forward FY13- another year to achieve high performance as targeted, with EBITDA uplift up to 30% towards 2017 following Operational Excellence, Marketing Excellence, Synergy Projects, and Debottlenecking Continue to pursue the target for strong profitable growth CAGR ~2-3% towards 2017 with expected revenue increase to THB bn CAGR ~5-7% towards 2022 with expected revenue increase to THB bn 33

34 Thank You For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at 1. Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP - Corporate Finance & IR Thitipong.j@pttgcgroup.com Panugorn Puengpradit IR Analyst Panugorn.p@pttgcgroup.com Prang Chudasring IR Analyst Prang.c@pttgcgroup.com Sinida Petchveerakul IR Analyst Sinida.p@pttgcgroup.com

35 Shutdown Schedule in 2013 Company Plant 2013 Shutdown Plan H1 H2 PTTGC Olefins I-4/1: S/D 15 days (1-15 May) I-4/1: T/A 44 Days (1Aug-13Sep) HDPE Cleaning 15 Days (21Apr-5 May) - Aromatics ARO1: FFU and CHX S/D clean&inspect 15days (17-31Jan) ARO1 : S/D for 10 days (Nov) ARO2: shutdown aromatics section to decoke Xylene heater 14days (1-14 Jun) ARO2: S/D for cleaning & inspect 17 days (Sep) Refinery SRU1 S/D yearly inspect 14 days (15-28Feb) SRU2 S/D yearly inspect 16 days (11-27Mar) Mini S/D 38days (15May-21Jun) PTTPE Olefins - - LLDPE Cleaning&Maint. 25Days (6-30May) - LDPE Cleaning&Maint. 11days(20-30Mar) Cleaning&Maint. 10days (1-10Sep) Cleaning&Maint. 5days (1-5Jun) Cleaning&Maint. 5days (15-19Nov) BPE BPE1 - Cleaning&Maint. 15 Days (1-15 Aug) BPE2 T/A & Cleaning 30Days (15Jun-14Jul) - TOCGC EOEG - Cleaning&Maint. 8 days (28 Jul-4 Aug) 35

36 Olefins Improved derivatives demand will support to Olefins market USD/Ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Unit : KMT 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 1, ,321 1,306 1,333 Short-term Price Forecast 1,303 1,265 1,267 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/13F Fushun PC China 800 KMT Q1-10 to Q3-12 Daqing PC China 600 KMT Q1-11 to Q3-12 Saudi Polymers Saudi 1,200 KMT Q3-11 to Q3-12 Long-term Supply/Demand Sichuan PC China 1,000 KMT Q3-11 to Q4-13 ExxonMobil SG 1,000 KMT Q3-11 to Q2-13 SINOPEC Wuhan CH 800 KMT Q1-11 to Q3-13 BPCL India 220 KMT Q3-11 to Q4-15 Chandra Asri Indonesia 400 KMT Q1-14 to Q3-15 Reliance India 1,350 KMT Q1-16 to Q3-16 Ilam Iran 458 KMT Q1-15 to Q1-16 CNOOC & Shell China 1,000 KMT Q1-16 to Q1-17 Other Asia 20% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand China 42% Short-Term Olefins prices were expected to remain high in 1H-13 due to improve demand in derivatives markets in line with new PE plants in Asia will come on-stream However the market will be pressured from 1) Additional new supply in Middle East and Asia (especially in China and Singapore) in the second half of the year 2) Lighter turnaround plan at Asia cracker in 2013 America 16% Middle East 20% Europe 2% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: CMAI April

37 Polyethylene: HDPE The market will be pressured from new supply in the short term USD/Ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Unit : KMT 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,482 1,477 1,459 Short-term Price Forecast 1,400 1,383 1,365 1,330 1,348 1,325 1,333 1,319 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/13F Fushun PC China 575 KMT Q1-10 to Q3-12 Daqing PC China 400 KMT Q1-11 to Q3-12 Saudi Polymers Saudi 550 KMT Q3-11 to Q3-12 HDPE Long-term Supply/Demand Sichuan PC China 300 KMT Q1-12 to Q4-13 Saudi Polymers Saudi 550 KMT Q3-11 to Q1-13 SINOPEC Wuhan CH 300 KMT Q1-11 to Q3-13 OPAL India 350 KMT Q1-13 to Q3-14 BPCL India 110 KMT Q3-13 to Q4-14 Shaanxi Yanchang China 250 KMT Q3-14 to Q1-16 Ilam Iran 300 KMT Q1-14 to Q1-15 Other Asia 11% China 44% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand Short-Term More new PE supplies in Asia (Mainly from China) and strong buying resistance from end-use producers due to squeezed margin will weigh on PE markets especially in the second half of the year However, PE prices will show the sign of recovery according to the global economic America 20% Middle East 24% Europe 1% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: CMAI April 2013

38 Polyethylene : LLDPE & LDPE New Capacities and Closures Unit : KMT 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ExxonMobil Sing. 1,300 KMT Q1-11 to Q4-12 Fushun PC China 225 KMT Q2-10 to Q3-12 LLDPE Long-term Supply/Demand SINOPEC Wuhan China 300 KMT Q1-11 to Q3-13 Sichuan PC China 300 KMT Q3-12 to Q4-13 OPAL India 350 KMT Q1-13 to Q3-14 Yulin Energy China 300 KMT Q2-13 to Q2-14 LDPE Long-term Supply/Demand CNOOC & Shell China 300 KMT Q1-16 to Q Other Asia 29% China 40% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand America 24% Middle East 7% Europe 0% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Unit : KMT 2,000 1,500 1, QAPCO Qatar 300 KTA Q1-12 to Q3-12 Borouge UAE. 350 KTA Q1-14 to Q3-14 Reliance India 400 KTA Q1-15 to Q China 28% Europe 12% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand Other Asia 8% Middle East 30% America 22% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: CMAI April

39 MEG the market will be robust due to strong derivative demand USD/Ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Short-term Price Forecast 1,395 1,321 1,347 1,333 1,282 1,258 1,267 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/12F MEG Long-term Supply/Demand Short-Term Buying sentiment is expected to be driven up from stronger demand in the downstream textiles and fabrics sectors in China due to more new Polyester supply will start up in the second half of the year 2013 However, new MEG supplies will come onstream during the year will affect the market Unit : KMT 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Henan Coal Chemical China 400 KTA Q1-13 to Q3-12 Henan Coal Chemical China 400 KTA Q1-13 to Q4-12 Petrochina Sichuan China 380 KTA Q3-13 to Q4-13 Ningbo Heyuan China 500 KTA Q4-12 to Q2-13 Qianxi Coal Chem China 400 KTA Q3-13 to Q America Europe India Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand Source: PCI February 2013 China 49% Other Asia 8% India 5% America 12% Europe 7% Middle East 19% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand

40 Paraxylene Derivatives demand will support PX market USD/Ton 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Short-term Price Forecast 1,617 1,475 1,458 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/13F PX Long-term Supply/Demand Short-Term PX demand in year 2013 will be supported from new PTA plants in Asia (especially in China) will start up in and high manufacturing season in textile and fabric sectors in China However, additional new supply in Asia and squeezed PTA margins and high inventory levels among downstream Polyester market will affect the PX market Unit : KMT 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Dalians Fujia2 China 700 KTA Q3-12 to Q4-12 Tenglong Aromatics1 China 800 KTA Q2-12 to Q2-13 Tenglong Aromatics2 China 800 KTA Q3-12 to Q1-14 PetroRabigh Saudi. 1,400 KTA Q3-15 to Q3-16 Other Asia 37% China 16% America 2% Europe 4% India America Europe India Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand13% Middle East 28% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: PCI February

41 Benzene the market will still be driven by the main products USD/Ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Short-term Price Forecast 1,388 1,304 1,344 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/13F BZ Long-term Supply/Demand Short-Term Supply continue to be short due to many refineries and Aromatics plants in Asia will shutdown for maintenance and due to weak demand in derivatives market In addition, Benzene market will be depend on volatile crude and feedstock prices and derivatives demand Unit : KMT 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Daqing PC China 150 KTA Q1-13 to Q3-12 ExxonMobil Sing. 340 KTA Q1-13 to Q2-13 Anqing PC China 54 KTA Q3-12 to Q1-13 Samsung Total PC S. Korea 422 KTA Q4-14 to Q1-15 Nghi Son Vietnam 246 KTA Q1-15 to Q America 1% Other Asia 55% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand Middle East 6% Europe 3% China 37% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: CMAI April

42 Phenol Will be pressured from high feedstock prices and new additional supply USD/Ton 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Short-term Price Forecast 1,612 1,527 1,442 1,441 1,380 1,304 1,344 1, Q/13F 2Q/13F 3Q/13F 4Q/13F Phenol Long-term Supply/Demand Short-Term Phenol market remain continue to face rising cost and weak supply/demand balances Additionally, Phenol market will be pressured from new additional supply in Asia, mainly from China and S. Korea in 2013 Unit : KMT Lihuayi Group Taiwan 1, KTA Q1-13 to Q4-12 1, FCFC China 300 KTA Q4-13 to Q1-14 SSMC China 250 KTA Q4-13 to Q1-14 CEPSA Quimica China 250 KTA Q3-14 to Q1-15 INEOS/Yangzi PC China 400 KTA Q3-14 to Q Other Asia 55% America Europe Middle East China Other Asia Additional demand America 1% Europe 2% China 68% Additional ( ) (Unit : MMT) Supply Demand Source: CMAI April

43 Continues to Strive for Strong Profitable Growth Sales in THB Bn Based on constant Dubai crude year 2012 at USD 109 per bbl Green ~ ~ HVS New Global Hub Green HVS Debottleneck Synergy Project Excellence Operational Excellence, Marketing Excellence, Capital Expenditure Excellence Expected EBITDA Benefit Uplift 15-30% Actual 2011 Target Phase 1: Foundation for Growth Phase 2: The Growth Mode Target 2022 We aim to grow ~5 percent p.a. in the next ten years 43