Erdemir Group Months Consolidated Financial Results
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1 1 / 35 Erdemir Group Months Consolidated Financial Results 28 October 2014
2 2 / 35 DISCLAIMER Ereğli Demir Çelik Fabrikaları T.A.Ş. (Erdemir) may, when necessary, make written or verbal announcements about forward-looking information, expectations, estimates, targets, assessments and opinions. Erdemir has made the necessary arrangements about the amounts and results of such information through its Disclosure Policy and has shared such policy with the public through the Erdemir website, in accordance with the Capital Markets Board regulations. As stated in related policy, information contained in forward-looking statements, whether verbal or written, should not include unrealistic assumptions or forecasts. It should be noted that, actual results could materially differ from estimates taking into account the fact that they are not based on historical facts but are driven from expectations, beliefs, plans, targets and other factors which are beyond the control of our Company. As a result, forward-looking statements should not be fully trusted or taken as granted. Forward-looking statements should be considered valid only considering the conditions prevailing at the time of the announcement. In cases where it is understood that forward-looking statements are no longer achievable, such matter will be announced to the public and the statements will be revised. However, the decision to make a revision is a result of a subjective evaluation. Therefore, it should be noted that, when a party is coming to a judgement based on estimates and forward-looking statements, our Company may not have made a revision at that particular time. Our Company makes no commitment to make regular revisions which would fully cover changes in every parameter. New factors may arise in the future which may not be possible to foresee at this moment in time.
3 3 / 35 Agenda 2014 Market Overview M Results 2014 Guidance
4 In EU, sales price was 535 USD/ton as of October 2014 Sep-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Mar-09 Source: * worldsteel ** Bloomberg Jun-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Mar-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Mar-14 Jun-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 4 / 35 Dec Sep-08 Dec-08 May-09 Mar-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Dec-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Dec Mar-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Sep % EU28 CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % )* USA CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % )* 100% 50% 80% 60% 25% 0% -25% -50% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% CIS CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ( YoY % ) * HRC PRICES ( USD/TON )** 60% 50% % 30% % 10% 0% % -20% % -40% -50% EU NORTH AMERICA CIS BLACK SEA/BALTIC EXPORT
5 Iron ore price was 80 USD/ton at the end of October Source: Bloomberg Platts / IODEX / USD/TON 200 COKING COAL PRICES (HCC PEAK DOWNS REGION FOB AUSTRALIA) USD/TON 160 IRON ORE PRICES (IODEX 62% FE CFR NORTH CHINA MID) USD/TON USD/TON 700 ERDEMIR GROUP HRC EFFECTIVE PRICE CIS HRC BLACKSEA/BALTIC EXPORT PRICE FOB USD/TON 420 SCRAP PRICES (HMS CFR TURKEY MID)
6 Turkish steel production increased by 2% in M YoY PRODUCTION ( 000 TONS ) M M CONSUMPTION ( 000 TONS ) Long Flat Total M M Source: TISPA Long Flat Total 6 / 35
7 Turkish iron and steel product imports decreased by 9% in M YoY IRON AND STEEL PRODUCT EXPORTS ( 000 TONS ) , M M Long Steel Billet Flat Steel Slab Total IRON AND STEEL PRODUCT IMPORTS ( 000 TONS ) M M Source: TISPA Long Steel Billet Flat Steel Slab Total 7 / 35
8 Contraction in the automotive sector is expected CHANGES IN SECTOR DEVELOPMENT INDEX (% YoY) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 33,4% 32,6% 20,0% 18,3% 16,0% 22,1% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 7,4% 11,3% 5,5% 7,1% 2,7% 3,0% 4,5% 11,2% 2,2% 4,0% 6,8% 4,0% 3,5% 0,6% 1,4% 1,0% -0,5% -5,5% (e) 2015 (e) Construction White Goods Mechanical Machinery Automotive Source: TURKSTAT and ERDEMİR Group Analyses 8 / 35
9 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 October China HRC sales price is 83 USD/ton lower than last year s same month Çin 2.Kalite Kok Kömürü Spot İhraç Fiyatı ( USD/TON ) HRC PRICES ( USD/Ton ) CIS EXPORT HRC BLACKSEA/BALTIC EU HRC CHINA SPOT HRC USA IMPORT HR ERDEMIR GROUP As of October 2014, EU HRC price was 535 USD, China HRC spot price is 487 USD, CIS export HRC price is 528 USD. The prices were 592 USD, 570 USD, 525 USD respectively by the end of October Source: Bloomberg 9 / 35
10 Billet sales prices are significantly lower in China Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Çin 2.Kalite Kok Kömürü Spot İhraç Fiyatı ( USD/TON ) BILLET PRICES ( USD/Ton ) BILLET CHINA EXPORT BILLET CIS EXPORT BLACKSEA/BALTIC BILLET EXPORT TURKEY ERDEMIR GROUP As of October 2014, Turkey export price was 523 USD while it was 533 USD in October Source: Bloomberg 10 / 35
11 11 / 35 Agenda 2014 Market Overview M Results 2014 Guidance
12 12 / 35 ERDEMİR GROUP KEY FIGURES M M Liquid Steel Production (000 Tons) Slab Production (1) (000 Tons) Flat Steel Production (2) (000 Tons) Long Steel Production (000 Tons) Flat Steel Shipments (000 Tons) Long Steel Shipments (000 Tons) Net Sales Revenue (3) (M. USD) EBITDA (3) (M. USD) Net Profit For The Year (3) (M. USD) All figures are on IFRS consolidated basis unless stated otherwise. (1) Total slab production of Ereğli and İskenderun Plants. (2) Total flat steel production of Ereğli and İskenderun Plants. (3) 1 USD = 2,1624 TRY (January-September 2014 average exchange rate)
13 Liquid steel production was 6,4 million tons in M YoY 13 / 35 LIQUID STEEL PRODUCTION ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months
14 Crude steel capacity utilization ratio of ERDEMİR Group is higher than world average CRUDE STEEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATIO 96% 94% 92% 92,8% 93,3% 90% 88% 88,4% 86% 84% 84,1% 82% 80% 78% 80,2% 78,3% 77,9% 77,1% 76% M Erdemir Group World Source: worldsteel 14 / 35
15 HRC production increased by 21% in M YoY 15 / 35 PRODUCTION VOLUMES ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Hot Cold Long Total
16 Sales volumes increased by 6% in M YoY 16 / 35 SALES VOLUMES ( 000 TONS ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Hot Cold Long Total
17 Net sales revenue was 4,0 billion USD in M YoY 17 / 35 NET SALES REVENUE ( MILLION USD ) Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months Domestic Export Total
18 Sales to pipe and profile industry increased in M YoY 18 / M FLAT STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) M FLAT STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) 452Kt; 10% 186Kt; 4% 322Kt; 7% 436Kt; 9% 248Kt; 5% 4.720Kton; 90% 716Kt; 15% 1.476Kt; 31% 884Kt; 19% 414Kt; 10% 195Kt; 4% 305Kt; 7% 469Kt; 11% 245Kt; 6% 4.230Kton; 91% 581Kt; 14% 1.273Kt; 30% 749Kt; 18% M LONG STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) M LONG STEEL DOMESTIC SALES BREAKDOWN (%) 29Kt; 4% 7Kt; 1% 125Kt; 19% 266Kt; 39% 24Kt; 3% 7Kt; 1% 119Kt; 15% 678Kton; 80% 214Kt; 27% 804Kton; 76% 340Kt; 42% 182Kt; 27% 68Kt; 10% 99Kt; 12%
19 Flat steel sales to EU countries was 46% of our flat export in M 19 / M FLAT STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) M FLAT STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) 49Kt; 9% 24Kt; 6% 22Kt; 5% 30Kt; 6% 240Kt; 46% 31Kt; 7% 81Kt; 16% 517Kton; 10% 45Kt; 10% 443Kton; 9% 119Kt; 23% 320Kt; 72% M LONG STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) M LONG STEEL EXPORTS BREAKDOWN (%) 16Kt; 9% 23Kt; 9% 10Kt; 4% 17Kt; 7% 170Kton; 20% 248Kton; 24% 61Kt; 36% 94Kt; 55% 199Kt; 80%
20 In M, Erdemir Group average flat and long steel prices were 645 USD/ton and 575 USD/ton respectively Sep-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Aug / 35 Sep-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Apr-14 May-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 USD/TON Erdemir Group Flat Sales Price Erdemir Group Flat Cost of Sales USD/TON Erdemir Group Long Sales Price Erdemir Group Long Cost of Sales
21 Net profit increased by 36% in M YoY EBITDA ( MILLION USD ) ,2% 21,3% 19,8% 20,7% 22,8% 20,3% 21,3% 17,5% 19,4% 19,2% ,3% ,0% 40,0% 32,0% 24,0% 16,0% 8,0% 0,0% Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months EBITDA EBITDA Margin NET PROFIT/(LOSS) ( MILLION USD ) ,7% 14,8% 12,8% 12,1% 9,4% 10,4% ,1% ,7% 9,4% 252 4,7% Quarter 2. Quarter 3. Quarter 9 Months ,0% 11,4% 12,0% 6,0% 0,0% Net Profit/(Loss) Net Profit/(Loss) Margin 21 / 35
22 EBITDA was 848 million USD in M 22 / 35 Consolidated EBITDA => Consolidated Net Profit (Million USD) (148) 22 (49) (90) (21) EBITDA (1 Jan Sept. 2014) Depreciation Interest inc. from Operating Income Finance Inc./Exp. Tax Inc./Exp. Non-Controlling overdue sales / Rediscount Inc./Exp. (Net) Interests NET PROFIT (1 Jan Sept. 2014)
23 EBITDA was 848 million USD in M 23 / 35 Consolidated EBITDA => Consolidated Net Cash (Million USD) (40) (59) (113) 211 (386) EBITDA (1 Jan Sept. 14) Changes in Interest Inc. from Working Capital Overdue Sales Interest Inc./ (Exp.) net Taxes Paid Net Cash Used in Investing Act. Free Cash Flow Increase in Financial Liabilities Dividend Paid Other INCREASE IN CASH (1 Jan Sept. 14)
24 EBITDA per ton for flat product was 142 USD/ton in Q 24 / 35 EBITDA PER TON (USD/TON) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Flat Long
25 Net assets was 4,3 billion USD at the end of Q 25 / 35 CONSOLIDATED NET ASSETS (MILLION USD) WORKING CAPITAL (MILLION USD) (236) (179) (27) Trade Receivables Inventories Trade Payables Other WORKING CAPITAL
26 Net debt was 731 million USD at the end of Q 26 / 35 BORROWINGS ( MILLION USD ) Q Long-Term Debt Short-Term Debt Net Debt
27 Net debt was 731 million USD at the end of Q 27 / 35 NET DEBT (MILLION USD) (895) (43) Net Debt Free Cash Flow Dividend Paid Other Net Debt (December 2013) (Sept. 2014)
28 Erdemir Group has million USD cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q 28 / 35 BORROWINGS MATURITY PROFILE (MILLION USD) Sept.14 1 Cash Oct.-Dec Principal Revolving Trade Financing Loans Interest
29 Raw materials made up 71% of the cost of sales in M COST OF SALES BREAKDOWN* - % 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 1% 5% 1% 4% 4% 7% 7% 6% 6% 12% 11% 11% 12% 71% 72% 74% 75% M Raw Materials Personnel Expenses Purchased Energy Expenses Depreciation and Amortization Exp. Non-operating Expenses Other RAW MATERIALS BREAKDOWN - % 11% 14% 11% 11% 3% 6% 5% 5% 5% 15% 12% 13% 14% 25% 28% 36% 33% 41% 41% 35% 37% M Iron Ore&Pellet Coal Scrap Alloyed and Plated Material Purchased Slab Other * Excluding inventory writedowns and provision released 29 / 35
30 Flat cost per ton excluding raw materials and depreciation was realised as 144 USD/ton in Q 30 / 35 FLAT PRODUCTS ( USD/TON )* LONG PRODUCTS ( USD/TON )* Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Fixed Cost Per Ton Variable Cost Per Ton Flat Production (000 tons) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Fixed Cost Per Ton Variable Cost Per Ton Long Production (000 tons) * Depreciation was excluded from fixed and variable cost.
31 Capital expenditures of 172 million USD is planned for / 35 ( M USD ) M Fixed Assets Acquisition and Maintenance Capital Expenditures * The figures only cover the board approved capex plan.
32 Number of employees was as of September / 35 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES September
33 33 / 35 Agenda 2014 Market Overview M Results 2014 Guidance
34 34 / GUIDANCE Production (M. Tons) Sales (M. Tons) 7,8 8,1 7,7 8,1 6,4 6,7 6,3 6,7 1,4 1, Actual 2014 Budget Long Flat 1,4 1, Actual 2014 Budget Long Flat
35 35 / GUIDANCE EBITDA and Net Profit Margins EBITDA and Net Profit Margins were 19.2% and 9.4% respectively in EBITDA and Net Profit Margins are expected to be 18-20% and 11-13% respectively in 2014.
36 36 / 35
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