FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION

Transcription

1 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION April 5, 2018

2 Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Mechel PAO (Mechel) or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any purchase of securities should be made solely on the basis of information Mechel files from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Mechel or any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. This presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Mechel, as defined in the safe harbour provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of We wish to caution you that these statements are only predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We do not intend to update these statements. We refer you to the documents Mechel files from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 20-F. These documents contain and identify important factors, including those contained in the section captioned Risk Factors and Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements in our Form 20-F, that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements, including, among others, the achievement of anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of our recent acquisitions, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or ADRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions. The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice 2 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION

3 KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS Nelli Galeeva Chief Financial Officer 3 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION

4 Key market drivers In 2017 prices on coal market were very volatile with a peak of over $300 per tonne and lowest level at $140 per tonne. Relative stability was reached in 3Q17 when after bottoming to the level of $140 in June 2017, the price rebounded to $200 in September, and after a short correction in October, rebounded to $250 per tonne by the year end. Since the beginning of 2018 coal price fluctuates in the range $210-$230 per tonne. Totally average price on quarterly contracts for the FY2017 amounted to about $210 per tonne FOB Australia, that is by $96 per tonne or by 84% higher than in FY2016. Iron ore prices in 1Q17 demonstrated growth to $95* per tonne supported by an increase of steel prices, but in 2Q17 iron ore prices decreased to $54* following the decline in steel prices. 3Q17 started with the upward trend for iron ore prices but after a high level of $79 per tonne by the end of August, they started to decline and by the end of quarter returned to $62. In 4Q17 iron ore prices were stabilized at a level of $66. As a result in FY2017 average level of Fe62% iron ore index CFR China amounted to $71/dmt (+22% to the level of FY2016). In 2017 billet demonstrated predominantly upward trend on stable demand from Northern Africa and Middle East region. Antidumping duties imposed by Egypt also supported price levels. Overall in 2017 billet prices increased from the level of $400 to $500 FOB Black Sea. Rebar prices on the local Russian market were more volatile than billet prices on international market. Nevertheless after weak first half of the year in summer 2017 rebar prices stabilized at a level above 24,000-28,000 Rubles per tonne (ex VAT) and remain relatively stable in the beginning of HCC prices FOB Australia, US$/t HCC spot price HCC quarterly benchmark price HCC quarterly reference price Source: Bloomberg Billet FOB Black Sea, US$/t * CFR China Fe62% Platts IODEX Source: Metal Courier 4 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY MARKET DRIVERS

5 FY 2017 Financial results summary Consolidated Revenue in FY2017 amounted to bln. It increased by 8% compared to FY2016, due to higher prices for both Mining and Steel segments products and growing share of high value-added products such as rails, beams, flat steel products etc. in Steel segment product mix. EBITDA* increased by 23% compared to FY2016 and amounted to 81.1 bln with EBITDA margin reaching 27% which was a result of Mining segment intense profitability growth due to higher prices. Group generated Profit attributable to equity shareholders of Mechel PAO of 11.6 bln vs 7.1 bln in FY2016 including foreign exchange rate effect which amounted to 4.2 bln and 25.9 bln, respectively. mln FY17 FY16 % 4Q17 3Q17 % Revenue 299, ,009 8% 76,316 73,413 4% Operating profit 57,167 42,690 34% 10,752 15,738-32% EBITDA* 81,106 66,164 23% 21,966 18,913 16% EBITDA margin, % 27% 24% 29% 26% Profit attributable to equity shareholders of Mechel PAO 11,557 7,126 62% 443 6,120-93% *Here and further EBITDA is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA in accordance with definition in Press release Attachment A 5 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

6 FY 2017 Production and sales summary Production (th tonnes) Coal production in 2017 declined by 9%. Coking coal mining volumes declined by 1.5 mln tonnes, steam coal mining was lower by 0.6 mln tonnes. Product FY17 FY16 % 4Q17 3Q17 % The major reason for lower mining volumes was non-sufficient stripping operations and repairs over the last years. Run-of-mine Coal 20,638 22, ,944 5,363-8 We are fully committed to recover production in our Mining segment with greater investments in equipment repairs, new mining machinery procurement, increase of stripping works execution by the outsourcing to the third party companies. Pig Iron 4,029 4, ,010-3 Steel 4,274 4, ,057 1, Production of pig iron and steel was at a stable level compared to FY2016. Coking and steam coal sales in FY2017 declined compared to FY 2016 as a result of lower mining volumes as well as a railcar deficit and the August cyclone in the Far East. But there was positive dynamics quarter to quarter as we realize equipment repair and procurement program. Flat products sales in FY2017 increased by 17% compared to FY2016 on high demand and product-line expansion efforts. Long products sales slightly decreased in general compared to FY2016 but within this product category semi-finished and low-marginal products were to a great extent replaced by high value-addedproducts. Sales (th tonnes) Product FY17 FY16 % 4Q17 3Q17 % Coking Coal 7,942 8, ,972 1, Steam Coal 6,141 6, ,499 1, Flat Products Long Products 2,919 2, FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

7 Mining segment China and rest of Asia remain very important market for our Mining division. In FY2017 combined share of this region increased to 6 from 58% in FY2016 as a result of stronger demand and higher prices in this region. Consolidated share of Russia together with Europe slightly decreased from 36% in FY2016 to 34% in FY2017. Favorable pricing environment was the main factor of EBITDA growth almost by half compared to FY2016 which reached 61.4 bln with EBITDA margin 43%. Negative influence of lower sales volumes to third-parties was compensated by higher intersegment sales since intra-group coal sales increased by 9% year-on-year and almost 100% of iron ore concentrate produced by Korshunov Mining Plant was consumed within the group. 40,0 20,0 0,0 Revenue, EBITDA margin, Bln Inter-segment revenue Revenue EBITDA margin % 49% 43% 39% % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% EBITDA, Bln Revenue breakdown by regions (FY2017) 70,0 60, % 50,0 40,0 30,0 20, Europe 12% Russia 22% Asia w/o China 32% 10,0 0,0 EBITDA FY16 Prices External sales Inter-segment Cost of sales EBITDA FY17 volumes sales China 29% 7 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

8 Steel segment Traditionally Russian and CIS markets were most important for our steel division sales with their share amounting to 84% of segment revenue. High raw materials prices and unfavorable market conditions in the beginning of 2017 resulted in weakening of Steel division financial results but in the second half of 2017 segment`s metrics rebounded and returned to more healthy levels. Costs of sales increase was primarily a result of higher raw materials prices as average iron ore and coke prices grew significantly comparing to FY2016. Effect of higher costs was partially offset by higher prices but segment`s EBITDA in FY 2017 decreased by 19% if compared to FY2016. Revenue, EBITDA margin, Bln 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 Inter-segment revenue Revenue EBITDA margin % 13% 15% 8% 6% 30% 20% 10% 0% EBITDA, Bln 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, EBITDA FY16 Prices External sales Inter-segment Cost of sales EBITDA FY17 volumes sales Revenue breakdown by regions (FY 2017) Europe 14% CIS 10% 2% Russia 74% 8 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

9 Consolidated revenue and EBITDA dynamics Revenue, Bln Power Steel Mining Mining segment Revenue to 3 rd parties in FY2017 increased by 12%, compared to FY2016 on higher coal prices but their effect was partially offset by lower sales volumes Steel segment Revenue demonstrated a 7% growth on higher prices and increased share of rails, beams, flat steel and other high value-added products compared to FY ,9 286,4 297, Power segment Revenue to 3 rd growth compared to FY2016. parties increased by 6% due to tariffs 89.6 Revenue FY16 Mining Segment Steel Segment Power Segment Revenue FY17 Due to high coal prices Mining segment EBITDA increased by 47% compared to FY2016 and amounted to 61.4 bln. EBITDA, Bln Power Steel Mining Steel segment EBITDA lost 19% on higher costs arising from high raw materials prices and amounted to 18.8 bln Power segment EBITDA increased by 39% Y-o-Y and amounted to 2.3 bln as prices dynamics surpassed costs growth ,8 81,9 81, EBITDA FY16 Mining Segment Steel Segment Power Segment EBITDA FY17 9 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

10 Cash flow & trade working capital Cash flow from operations completely covers Group's current expenses, including debt service and partial amortization of debt. In 2017 we invested 10.0 bln into a working capital. We consider current level of 11.8 bln as comfortable to support Group`s stable operations and envisage just slight increase in CASH FLOW, Bln Group s capital expenditures increased from 8.8 bln in FY2016 to 11.0 bln in FY2017, including 3.5 bln of lease payments Cash net of overdrafts as of 31/12/2016 Net operating activities Net investing activities Net financing activities Effect of exchange rate changes Cash net of overdrafts as of 31/12/2017 Trade working capital management, Bln FREE CASH FLOW for FY2017, Bln (60.1) (59.2) (58.4) (53.8) (52.6) Trade current assets Trade current liabilities Trade working capital Cash flow from Operations Net interest expenses, inlc. overdue interest Capital expenditures (excluding leasing) Net investing activity Free Cash Flow Net settlement of loan, lease and other obligations Free Cash Flow to Firm 10 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

11 Key projects results Universal rolling mill production (th tonnes) Universal rolling mill on Chelyabinsk metallurgical plant Product FY17 FY16 % 4Q17 3Q17 % Capacity utilization of Universal rolling mill grew from almost 50% in FY2016 to about 60% in FY2017 and is expected to exceed 70-75% in FY2018. Rails, beams and shapes Total production volume during FY2017 amounted to over 630 th tonns, an increase of 23% compared to FY2016. Plan for FY2018 is over 800 th tonns. Over 90% of rails produced are 100 meters long rails. New types of rails production (for use at European railways) have already been adopted at the plant and passed certification for conformity with European railroad standards. Universal rolling mill Production in 4Q Q 2017 (th tonnes) Rails Rails for Russian Railways Beams and Shapes Elga coal project development Production plan for 2018 is 5.3 mln tonnes of coal. Elga Coal Complex (th tonnes) Product FY17 FY16 % 4Q17 3Q17 % In FY2017 share of coking coal in total mining volumes amounted to 83%. Run-of-mine coal 4,154 3, ,105 1, FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

12 Debt structure & net debt / EBITDA ratio dynamics 30,0 As of the date of financial release portion of restructured debt has increased to 78%; ruble portion of debt amounts to 67%; and Russian state banks hold 7 of our debt portfolio. New repayment schedules with Russian state banks came into force in the middle of April 2017, which assumes a grace period until 1Q-2Q2020 and equal monthly repayment until 2Q2022. Net leverage decreased to a level of 5.3 on EBITDA growth and stable debt. Average interest rate through the debt portfolio as of April 2018 is 8. per annum and it trends to lower levels as most Ruble denominated loans rate is linked to Central bank key interest rate; average paid interest rate (with PIC) amounts to 7.9% per annum. In 2017 Group repaid 11.8 bln of debt. December 29, 2017 Mechel PAO successfully completed negotiations on restructuring the 1-billion-dollar syndicated loan with International banks. All necessary documents will be signed in the nearest future. 406 bln bln bln bln 426 bln FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 1Q'17 1H'17 9M'17 FY'17 Finance lease Long-term borrowings Interest payable Short-term borrowings and current portion of long-term borrowings Net Debt*/EBITDA * excluding GPB option on Elga, fines and penalties Bonds 3% s 2% 425 bln 426 bln 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 EUR 6% In restructuring 22% Restructured loans 78% USD 27% 67% ECA 8% Syndicate 16% Russian State Banks 7 12 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS

13 APPENDIX 13 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION

14 924 1,018 1, ,260 1,211 1,027 1,588 1,160 1,311 1,900 2,341 2,292 1,576* 1,572* 2,253 2,102 1,973 2,168 2,495 2,739 1,649* 1,995* 3,163 4,656 4,608 4,317 3,916 4,300 4,261 5,978 5,659 5,917 2,127 1,613 1,754 1,795 1,965 6,586 6,671 6,522 6,475 8,437 7,936 11,628 13,318 12,036 12,306 14,576 Mining segment Revenue, EBITDA margin, Bln Inter-segment revenue Revenue EBITDA margin Average sales prices FCA, /tonne 40,0 30,0 20,0 10, % 49% % 39% 4 100% 50% 0,0 Cash costs, /tonne 0% Coke Coking coal Anthracite and PCI COS structure Steam coal Iron ore 45.0 bln 49.0 bln 4% 15% 12% 6% 14% 1 Depreciation and depletion 27% 26% Energy Staff costs 42% 43% Raw materials and goods for resale Coal SKCC Coal YU Coal Elga* Iron ore Coking coal concentrate produced on Elga * Coking coal concentrate produced on Elga and Southern Kuzbass Coal Company washing facilities FY16 FY17 14 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / APPENDIX

15 Mining segment Revenue breakdown by regions FY % Revenue breakdown by regions FY 2016 CIS 2% Middle East 3% Europe 12% Asia w/o China 32% Europe 1 Asia w/o China 3 Russia 22% Russia 25% China 29% China 27% Revenue breakdown by products FY 2017 Middlings 6% Coking products 2% Coke 1 Steam coal 13% bln 3% Coking coal 44% Revenue breakdown by products FY 2016 Coking products 2% Coke 10% Middlings 6% Steam coal 14% 4% 89.6 bln Coking coal 43% Anthracites and PCI 2 Anthracites and PCI 2 15 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / APPENDIX

16 18,990 17,893 18,364 23,240 22,087 21,819 22,449 22,776 21,252 19,605 20,032 23,550 22,340 20,963 21,261 21,695 26,507 25,272 25,044 25,767 25,759 30,501 30,293 28,490 30,922 27,295 26,962 24,455 28,442 28,621 38,550 40,993 39,639 41,725 46,186 33,408 35,561 34,988 34,808 39,197 30,661 33,129 33,141 33,066 33,190 44,498 45,815 45,987 44,242 44,074 59,355 59,009 58,780 63,005 77,873 Steel segment Revenue, EBITDA margin, Bln Inter-segment revenue Revenue EBITDA margin Average sales prices FCA, /tonne % 40, % 20,0 16% 13% 15% 20% 8% 6% 10% 0,0 0% Rebar Hardware Carbon flat Railway rails Structural shapes Ferrosilicon Cash costs, /tonne COS structure bln 4% 12% 10% bln 3% 3% 1 9% Depreciation Energy 73% 74% Staff costs Raw materials and purchased goods Billets Wire rod Rebar Carbon flat Railway rails FY16 FY17 16 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / APPENDIX

17 Steel segment Revenue breakdown by regions FY 2017 CIS 10% Revenue breakdown by regions FY 2016 Asia CIS 10% Middle East Europe 15% Europe 15% Russia 74% Russia 72% Revenue breakdown by products FY 2017 Stainless flat Semi-Finished Steel Products 0.3% Carbon flat 12% Forgings and stampings 7% Ferrosilicon 2% Hardware 16% 9% bln Rebar 25% Carbon long products 28% Revenue breakdown by products FY 2016 Semi-Finished Steel Products 2% Carbon flat 10% Stainless flat Forgings and stampings 7% Ferrosilicon 2% Hardware 15% bln Rebar 28% Carbon long products 24% 17 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / APPENDIX

18 Power segment Revenue for the FY2017 increased by 6% mostly on tariffs growth. FY2017 EBITDA increased by 39% Y-o-Y as prices dynamics surpassed costs growth. 12,0 Revenue, EBITDA margin, Bln Inter-segment revenue Revenue EBITDA margin 40% Average electricity sales prices and cash costs, / th KWh Cash costs Sales price 2,401 2,410 2,603 2,456 2,302 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0, % COS structure 6% % % bln 29.8 bln 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Depreciation 4% 4% Staff costs % 94% Raw materials and goods for resale including energy FY16 FY17 18 FY 2017 RESULTS PRESENTATION / APPENDIX

19 Mechel is a global mining and metals company