THE. July, Why the Korean economy looks poised to hit the wall in late 2017 while Australia is set to resist the global weakness.
|
|
- Camilla Wilkinson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 THE MAVERICK July, 217 Why the Korean economy looks poised to hit the wall in late 217 while Australia is set to resist the global weakness. P a g e 1
2 Highlights Korea Korean money supply growth has peaked and is now in a sharp downtrend Our successful multi-country MENGER model points to a slowing Korean economy from 3Q, 217 with yearly industrial production growth likely to head towards zero or lower The KOSPI is currently very overbought technically and our MENGER model predicts considerable downside in 2H, 217 and again sharply in 218 Our business cycle asset allocation model goes extremely defensive with a 7%/3% bonds/stock mix Our equities sector model focuses only on two highly defensive sectors: Consumer Staples and Healthcare Australia Incredibly, the Aussie economy looks set to buck the global weakening trend, due largely to different money supply dynamics The stock market should range trade while our MENGER model is forecasting further weakness in the AUD against the USD Asset allocation becomes more expansive with allocations to: o Oil & Gas 15% o Basic Materials 15% o Telecom 17.5% o Consumer Staples 17.5% o Healthcare 17.5% o Financials 17.5% AUD is also forecast to weaken considerably against the Korean won P a g e 2
3 AAS Economics () specializes in producing forecasts for the global macro community using advanced monetary and econometric analysis. We use our unique framework to generate specific, trackable predictions for over 5 world markets and variables. From these forecasts we construct model portfolios which can form the basis of investible products. We also build customized predictive models for clients with particular interests. We welcome enquiries and enjoy discussing our novel approach to economies and markets. Pick up an explanatory paper outlining our methodology here. us at info@aasecon.com. P a g e 3
4 Korea the environment gets tougher from here Korean money supply growth is in sharp decline after peaking at over 29% p.a. in late 215 In our framework this spells slowdown, and after a short term improvement in the middle of 217 our successful MENGER model predicts Korean industrial production growth to head towards zero, or even into negative territory, in late 217 or early 218 This is consistent with our global economic slowdown scenario detailed in last month s The Macro Maverick The KOSPI Index is forecast to drop 15-25% over the next 18 months Our equally successful business cycle asset allocation models shift from the current Stage 4 (defensive) to Stage 1 (extremely defensive) in 3Q, 217 This means that the Stage 4 allocations of 5% Bonds 5% equities shifts to Stage 1 which is 7% bonds 3% equities This means that Consumer Staples and Healthcare become our only equity exposures, each with 5% allocations. As with other countries around the world, Korea is now dealing with the consequences of the end of one of the largest expansions in money supply growth in the post-war period. In our view these episodes of expansion and contraction of the money supply always end badly, and Korea should be no exception. There are only two questions regarding the forthcoming Korean slowdown: when and how severe? Fortunately we are able to model these developments using our integrated MENGER (Monetary Econometric National & Global Economic Research) model. This model covers more than 15 economies and examine the interplay between changes in money supply (as we measure it) and various other domestic and international factors so as to forecast what is likely to happen in the Korean economy over the coming 18 months. And it s not looking too good. First, the money supply. P a g e 4
5 Yearly Growth South Korea Money Supply (% p.a.) Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 After peaking at over 29% in September 215, South Korea s money supply growth rate has been declining and is now down to 12.3% p.a. (March 217). What this means is that those businesses that survived or evolved as a result of this rescue of the Korean economy by the Bank of Korea and the commercial banks will be finding life a lot tougher as the liquidity largesse is withdrawn. In May the yearly growth rate of the Bank of Korea s balance sheet stood at 2.1%. In May 216 it stood at -4%. However the long term underlying trend has remained weak since February 215 when it stood at 7.2% P a g e 5
6 Yearly Growth Bank of Korea Balance Sheet (% p.a.) Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Note the trends in other major economies money supply growth rates: monetary growth has peaked and is heading down. US Money Supply Growth 2 US AMS Germany Money Supply Growth 2 GERMAN AMS Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Japan Money Supply Growth China Money Supply Growth JAPAN AMS CHINA AMS Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 P a g e 6
7 In our framework (see the way we view the world, economically, here) the world economy is heading into contractionary headwinds. For Korea this means, at a minimum, a reduced rate of output growth. After rising to 6.7% in February this year the annual growth rate of industrial production has weakened significantly to 1.7% p.a. in April. Our MENGER industrial production model, which for Korea is driven by Korean money supply and foreign activity, indicates that the annual rate may rise to around 3.6% by July but thereafter the underlying momentum may weaken. Korean Yearly Growth Industrial Production (% p.a.) SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Indeed, as the chart shows, our outlook is for Korean industrial production growth to head towards zero or even negative by 3Q, 217 or early 218. KOSPI hitting the brakes Korean equities have performed quite strongly so far this year. As at the end of June, the KOSPI index has risen by 21.4% over the year. This compares to last year s gains of only 3.3%. Similarly our KOSPI model which is driven by Korean money supply, foreign equity markets and commodities, suggest that the KOSPI index may come under significant pressure in the months ahead. Declines of 15-2% or more are possible over the coming year. P a g e 7
8 Yearly Change KOSPI v. Yearly Change Korean Liquidity Lagged 15 Months KOSPI Index and SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX 6 4 2,4 2,2 NORMALISED SCALE 2 INDEX 2, 1, KOSPI LIQUIDITY 1,6 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan Jan 2 Jan 4 Jan 6 Jan 8 Note also the technical position of the KOSPI. The long term Relative Strength Index on monthly data shows a value near 8 which is typical of periods just before a correction. KOSPI Index and Relative Strength Index P a g e 8
9 A significant decline in the KOSPI could well be one of the major trends in equity markets over the coming 12 months. A close below a previous month s low, or a close below a trailing moving average, may constitute an entry trigger. Note that previous experience with regulators suggests that those who wish to short the index too long after it peaks may face bans on short selling. Possible strategies, depending on risk appetite, include: Granting covered calls Shorting KOSPI on downward breaks with close stops Long puts with or without short calls Long put spreads If remaining long Korean stocks, change to a more defensive sector mix as indicated below Korean asset allocation time to think more defensively Our Korea asset allocation model (for an explanation of this model see the Appendix) has been remarkably effective in historical testing. Here are the summary performance* tables. South Korea Asset Allocation Model Proforma Performance* ANALYSIS* Mar-26 to Jun-217 Approach* KOSPI Return CAGR 13.13% 6.32% Max Drawdown -28.3% -48.9% Std Dev 14.4% 17.8% Return/Drawdown Sharpe 3%.7.19 % Positive Years 83.3% 75.% 1 Year Return 1.31% 25.71% 3 Year Return 38.7% 29.% P a g e 9
10 Apr-6 Oct-6 Apr-7 Oct-7 Apr-8 Oct-8 Apr-9 Oct-9 Apr-1 Oct-1 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Dr. Frank Shostak - Chief Economist/Director Asset Allocation Strategy 5 S.Korea Total Return 5 Model S.Korea Total Return % 6.4% % 35.98% % % % 49.4% % 2.17% % -9.41% % 1.33% % 1.83% % -4.83% % 4.9% % 7.7% % 2.78% Korea is now in Stage 4, a defensive stage in our model and typically one of increasing risks for equities in general. Unfortunately, trends in monetary growth suggest that Korea moves from Stage 4 to Stage 1 (the most defensive of all stages) in 3Q, 217 and remains there for the remainder of the forecast window. The Stage 4 macro allocations for Korea are: Bonds: 5% Stocks: 5% o Utilities 16-2/3% o Consumer Staples 16-2/3% P a g e 1
11 o Healthcare 16-2/3% The Stage 1 (3Q, 217) macro allocations for Korea are: Bonds: 7% Stocks: 3% o Consumer Staples 15% o Healthcare 15% In line with this stage analysis we also produce using the same methodology allocations across equity sectors, whereby we allocate to equity sectors (not bonds) depending on the stage of the cycle. Here we have more historical data and our notional performance numbers are as follows: South Korea Sector Allocation Model Proforma Performance* ANALYSIS* May-1999 to Jun-217 Approach* KOSPI Return CAGR 18.81% 7.3% Max Drawdown -45.6% -6.6% Std Dev 23.8% 25.3% Return/Drawdown Sharpe 3% % Positive Years 77.8% 72.2% 1 Year Return 1.4% 21.82% 3 Year Return 54.% 24.8% P a g e 11
12 Apr-99 Feb- Dec- Oct-1 Aug-2 Jun-3 Apr-4 Feb-5 Dec-5 Oct-6 Aug-7 Jun-8 Apr-9 Feb-1 Dec-1 Oct-11 Aug-12 Jun-13 Apr-14 Feb-15 Dec-15 Oct-16 Dr. Frank Shostak - Chief Economist/Director Sector Rotation Strategy 25 S.Korea Total Return Model * S.Korea Total Return % 17.99% % % % 5.87% % -1.74% % 31.35% % 12.13% % 6.7% % 5.38% % 35.98% % % % 49.4% % 2.17% % -9.41% % 1.33% % 1.83% % -4.83% % 4.9% % 7.7% % 2.78% Once again, Korea is in Stage 4 and will move into Stage 1 (the most defensive stage) in 3Q, 217 according to our model. Thus we have the following allocations for Korean sectors: P a g e 12
13 Now (Stage 4): Utilities 33-1/3% Consumer Staples 33-1/3% Healthcare 33-1/3% 3Q, 217 (Stage 1): Consumer Staples 5% Healthcare: 5% Prospective allocations and more information can be obtained by contacting us via our website or via on Australia can it fight the global slowdown? Incredibly, our MENGER model indicates that the Aussie economy looks set to resist the forces that are driving a slowdown in global growth, due largely to its different money supply dynamics The stock market (ASX 2) should trade in a broad range around 5,5 6, for much of 217 before weakening in 218 The AUD should slowly slide against the USD and more so against the KRW Our business cycle asset allocation model place Australia in Stage 3 expansive in 2H, 217 with allocations as follows: o Oil & Gas 15% o Basic Materials 15% o Telecom 17.5% o Consumer Staples 17.5% o Healthcare 17.5% o Financials 17.5% P a g e 13
14 A significant difference between Australia and most of the advanced economies over recent years has been the trend in its rate of growth of money supply. Note the resilience of Australian money supply growth over recent months compared that of the other economies. Australian Money Supply Growth Rolling 3yr Z- AUSTRALIA Score AMS Z-SCORE 4 3 Australian Real GDP Growth v. Rolling Money AUSTRALIA REAL GDP v AMS Z-SCORE LAG 8 MTHS Supply 3yr Z-Score Lagged 3 2 ROLLING 3YEAR Z-SCORE NORMALISED SCALE R.GDP AMS Z-SCORE Jan 9 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan Jan 2 Jan 4 Jan 6 Jan 8 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 9 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan Jan 2 Jan 4 Jan 6 Jan 8 US Money Supply Growth German Money Supply Growth Eurozone Money Supply Growth US AMS GERMAN AMS EUROZONE AMS Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 P a g e 14
15 Japan Money Supply Growth China Money Supply Growth Australia Money Supply Growth JAPAN AMS CHINA AMS AUSTRALIA AMS Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9-1 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 After falling to 3.7% in September last year, Australia s money supply growth has strengthened. As at May the annual growth rate stood at 9.6%. This movement is also mirrored in RBA balance sheet growth which stood at -4.4% in September last year but has since risen to 14.6% in June this year. For the first quarter of 217, annual real GDP growth eased to 1.7% from 2.4% in the previous quarter. Using our MENGER model for Australian real GDP, which is driven by real money supply growth and foreign economic activity, we estimate that the annual rate of real GDP growth may strengthen in the short term, rising to around 2.3% by December. Next year may see a gradual softening, with GDP growth easing to around 2.2%. Australian Real GDP Growth & The Australian growth outlook is in stark contrast to that of most of the world s major economies. P a g e 15
16 US Ind. Production US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Growth German Ind. Production Growth Eurozone EUROZONE Ind. Production INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Growth GERMAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YEAR-ON-YEAR Q(%) Japan Ind. JAPAN Production INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Growth China Ind. Production Growth Brazil Ind. Production Growth CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BRAZIL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Russia Ind. RUSSIA Production INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Growth India Ind. Production Growth UK Ind. Production UK INDUSTRIAL Growth PRODUCTION INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Most other economies face a deteriorating growth environment from late 217, due mostly to the lagged effects of tighter money supply growth. Australia s monetary trends have been a little different, so that the resulting growth outlook is not the same. Australian CPI price inflation rose in Q1 this year to 2.1% from 1.9% in Q4 last year. Our CPI model (which is driven by money supply, foreign inflationary pressures and the AUD) suggests that inflation may soften in the coming months to around 1.8% by December this year. Thereafter it may increase to around 2.1% by December next year (still within the RBA target range of 2-3%). P a g e 16
17 In the context of our forecasts which indicate relatively optimistic economic growth alongside subdued inflation this, along with foreign central banks tightening might provide the platform for the RBA to also begin tightening at some point in the future more to rebuild its stimulatory arsenal than to fight price pressures. Australian Annual CPI Inflation & Aussie stocks - prepare for some volatility with falls in 218 After rising by almost 7% last year the ASX2 has been relatively subdued this year, only rising by 1% over the first six months. In our MENGER model the ASX2 forecast is driven primarily by Australian liquidity, foreign equities and commodity prices. Despite the shift towards commodity-related sectors our near-term outlook for the overall market is that it may weaken, followed by a rally into early-mid 218. Although forecasting error increases with the length of the forecast window, the outlook for the second half of 218 is for significant declines, back to the levels of mid-216. P a g e 17
18 ASX 2 Index ASX2 & Model ASX 2 Index 7, 6, 6, 5,6 5, 5,2 INDEX 4, 4,8 4,4 3, ASX2 MODEL 4, Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Asset allocation still in expansive mode As mentioned in relation to Korea, we use an asset allocation model based on prediction of the business cycle using our measure of money supply. We apply this process to numerous countries and Australia is no exception. So far this year our Australian model has followed a relatively defensive course (Stage 4) in the cycle incorporating a mixture of government bonds and defensive stocks. For the first half of the year our model showed gains of 5% compared with those of the All Ords of only.8%. The forecast stage of the business cycle moves into Stage 3 from August 217 through to at least February 218. Stage 3 is associated with a zero weighting to bonds and a high allocation (3%) to commodities or commodity-related equities sectors Oil & Gas and Basic Materials. For Australia this translates into the following allocations: Bonds % Equities: o Oil & Gas 15% o Basic Materials 15% o Telecom 17.5% o Consumer Staples 17.5% o Healthcare 17.5% o Financials 17.5% Using our high-level asset allocation model (which includes bonds) the notional performance* of this process is shown in the table and chart below. P a g e 18
19 Apr- Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-2 Apr-3 Jan-4 Oct-4 Jul-5 Apr-6 Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Dr. Frank Shostak - Chief Economist/Director Australia Asset Allocation Model Proforma Performance* ANALYSIS* Apr-2 to Jun-217 Approach* All Ords Index 5/5 Stocks/Bonds CAGR 9.78% 3.6% 2.88% Maximum Drawdown % % % Standard Deviation 1.9% 12.9% 6.4% Return/Drawdown Sharpe 3% % Positive Years 88.9% 72.2% 72.2% 1 Year Return 3.97% 8.54%.45% 3 Year Return 17.14% 7.7% 7.7% 5 Asset Allocation Strategy All Ordinaries Index 5/5 Stocks/Bonds 5 P a g e 19
20 YEARLY ANALYSIS* Approach All Ordinaries 5/5 Index/Bonds %.68% 3.19% % 6.51% 1.46% % % -2.65% % 11.11% 3.67% % 22.6% 11.84% % 16.18% 8.17% % 19.87% 6.99% % 13.76% 5.16% 28.17% -43.1% % % 33.43% 8.78% % -.73% 1.28% % % -1.5% % 13.46% 8.56% % 14.76% 2.28% %.66% 7.9% % -.82% -.63% % 7.1% 4.54% %.79% -.11% The process is explained in greater detail in the Appendix. Recent and prospective allocation settings are shown in the table below: P a g e 2
21 ALLOCATIONS (Commodities reflected in Oil & Gas and Basic Materials) June 217 Stage 1 Stocks 3% Consumer Staples 17.5% Health 17.5% Government Bonds 7% 1-yr Gov't Bond Commodity Sectors July 217 Stage 1 Stocks 3% Consumer Staples 17.5% Health 17.5% Government Bonds 7% 1-yr Gov't Bond Commodity Sectors August 217 Stage 3 Stocks 7% Telecom 17.5% Financials 17.5% Consumer Staples 17.5% Health 17.5% Government Bonds 1-yr Gov't Bond Commodity Sectors 3% Oil & Gas 15.% Basic Materials 15.% Sector allocations: less defensive We apply the same business cycle model used for high-level asset allocation to allocations across stock sectors. All that changes is that bond weightings are set to zero. For the first half of this year defensive stocks seem to have fared better than the broader market. As at the end of June our equity sector model* had an allocation towards defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Health and Utilities. Year-to-date, as at the end of June, our sector selection model* indicated gains of 13.1% against the All Ords appreciation of just.8%. This has delivered the following notional return profile from 21: P a g e 21
22 Apr- Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-2 Apr-3 Jan-4 Oct-4 Jul-5 Apr-6 Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Dr. Frank Shostak - Chief Economist/Director Australia Sector Model Proforma Performance* ANALYSIS* Apr-2 to Jun-217 Approach* All Ords Index CAGR 1.49% 3.6% Maximum Drawdown % % Standard Deviation 12.8% 12.9% Return/Drawdown.44.7 Sharpe 3%.58.5 % Positive Years 77.8% 72.2% 1 Year Return 13.8% 8.54% 3 Year Return 21.49% 7.1% Sector Rotation Strategy 5 All Ordinaries Index 5 P a g e 22
23 Approach All Ordinaries %.68% % 6.51% % % % 11.11% % 22.6% % 16.18% % 19.87% % 13.76% % -43.1% % 33.43% % -.73% % % % 13.46% % 14.76% %.66% % -.82% % 7.1% %.79% Proforma* sector allocations are as follows: P a g e 23
24 Sector Allocations June 217 Stage 1 Sectors 1% Consumer Staples 5.% Health 5.% Commodity Sectors July 217 Stage 1 Sectors 1% Consumer Staples 5.% Health 5.% Commodity Sectors August 217 Stage 3 Sectors 7% Telecom 17.5% Financials 17.5% Consumer Staples 17.5% Health 17.5% Commodity Sectors 3% Oil & Gas 15.% Basic Materials 15.% Prospective allocations and more information may be obtained by contacting us via the website or (info@aasecon.com). Aussie dollar Australian money supply growth exceeds that of the US So far in 217 the Aussie dollar has strengthened against the USD, rising by 6.5% as at the end of June. However, looking into the second half of 217 the fundamentals seem to be favouring a weakening in the currency against its US counterpart. The money supply growth differential between the US and Australia has been in a visible downtrend for the last 12 months as US monetary conditions have tightened relative to those in Australia. This provides support for the USD against the AUD. P a g e 24
25 Difference in Annual Money Supply Growth: US v. Australia (%) AMS DIFFERENTIAL: USA v AUSTRALIA % Also our MENGER model suggests that commodities may remain relatively subdued for the second half of 217. These factors alone suggest that if this were to eventuate then the Australian dollar may weaken against the USD. AUD/USD CRB INDEX v. CRB v AUD/USD Index CRB CRB Index COMMODITY & Model PRICE INDEX 5 4 NORMALISED SCALE AUD/USD CRB INDEX Jan 8 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 9 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan Jan 2 Jan 4 Jan 6 Jan 8 Our forecast for the AUD/USD is therefore for weakness in the AUD against the USD from around 3Q, 217. P a g e 25
26 AUD/USD & A$/US$ US$ PER A$ Using the same monetary logic in our MENGER model our forecasts indicate the possibility of significant declines in the AUD versus the Korean won. Money Supply (AMS) Differential: Korea v. Australia AMS DIFFERENTIAL: S.KOREA v AUSTRALIA AUD/KRW MENGER Model AUD/KRW 3 1,3 2 1,2 1 1,1 1, -1-2 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 % Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 19 As with all of our reports we appreciate questions, comments and feedback. Please feel free to contact us with any questions you may have. P a g e 26
27 Appendix 1: AAS Economics Asset Allocation Model Description We have developed a successful asset allocation model based around the business cycle. The logic is simple: Different assets and sub-assets (e.g. sectors of the equities market) perform better at different stages of the business cycle and this can be examined historically to map these assets to the cycle If one can predict the cycle and its stages then it is possible to predict which assets may perform better or worse We use changes in money supply to predict the cycle and its stages, using a normalized money supply growth rate curve Based on historical analysis we then allocate capital to those assets which have performed better at the relevant stage of the cycle The framework generates a forward-looking asset allocation based on the economy s forecast position in the cycle i.e. which stage it is entering. We use a 4-stage model and the process can be seen stylistically in the diagram below. P a g e 27
28 AMS Business Cycle Model STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 Consumer Staples Healthcare Utilities Discretionary IT Industrials Basic Materials Energy Discretionary Telecom Financials Industrials Staples Healthcare Basic Materials Energy Consumer Staples Healthcare Utilities STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 As each country s economy is slightly different, and the monetary lags vary, each country s asset allocation may vary slightly from the above diagram in one or more of the stages, but the overall methodology remains the same. For each country the historical performance of each asset/sector in each stage of the cycle is measured. This forms the basis of future allocations based on each cycle stage. P a g e 28
29 Appendix 2: Structure of the MENGER Macroeconometric Model Dr. Frank Shostak - Chief Economist/Director P a g e 29
30 Glossary AMS This is the proprietary AAS Economics money supply measure. It has its roots in Austrian economics and Excess Money Growth This is AMS growth minus CPI growth minus industrial production growth. It is designed to be a barometer of surplus money in the system, being the excess of demand (as measured by CPI and industrial production) and supply (as measured by AMS). In our framework excess money growth is a key driver of asset prices. Pool of Funding This is the stock of final goods ready for human consumption. The state of the pool sets the limit for economic growth. Real Savings The amount of consumer goods produced locally less the amount taken by the producers of these goods. The reshuffling process The diversion of real savings from wealth generating activities towards activities that sprang up on the back of loose monetary policy. Productive consumption This is defined as consumption that is preceded by production of wealth i.e. consumption that is backed up by the production of wealth. Non-productive consumption This is consumption that arises as a result of monetary pumping and is not supported by wealth production. This type of consumption weakens the flow of real savings. Unbacked loans (Inflationary Credit) This type of lending that is not backed up by real savings. This type of lending is created through fractional reserve banking i.e. lending out of "thin air". P a g e 3
31 For More Information AAS Economics () specializes in producing forecasts for the global macro community using advanced monetary and econometric analysis. We use our unique framework to generate specific, trackable predictions for over 5 world markets and variables. We also build customized predictive models for clients with particular interests. We welcome enquiries and enjoy discussing our novel approach to economies and markets. Contact us at info@aasecon.com. P a g e 31
A Novel Business Cycle Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy
BUSINESS CYCLE ASSET ALLOCATION A Novel Business Cycle Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy May, 2017 Proforma Performance Comparison AASE Strategy v. S&P500 v. Stock/Bond Portfolio Proforma Performance Comparison
More informationA Novel Business Cycle Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy
BUSINESS CYCLE ASSET ALLOCATION A Novel Business Cycle Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy June, 2017 Proforma Performance Comparison AASE Strategy v. S&P500 v. Stock/Bond Portfolio Proforma Performance Comparison
More informationAUD-EUR OUTLOOK Risk Appetite is the Key Wednesday, 25 January 2012 The Australian dollar has recently soared to record highs against the euro, reflecting heightened concerns about European sovereign risk,
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationThe dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective
The dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective Whitepaper Multi asset portfolios with return and volatility targets have a dual focus: return and risk. This means that there are two important
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationIndian Economy. Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued
Indian Economy Industrial Production Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued After a slowdown in May 2015, industrial production grew by 3.8% during the month
More informationThe dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective
The dynamic nature of risk analysis: This document is for Professional Clients in the UK only and is not for consumer use. Challenges for multi asset investing Multi asset portfolios with return and volatility
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Quarterly Review Global Equity Market Update GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 2002 2003 2004 2005
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationTerm Deposits. Deposit Review May Background on Term Deposits
Deposit Review May Term Deposits Simon Fletcher Head of Research (+61) 3 9670 8615 simon.fletcher@bondadviser.com.au Ethan Xing Quantitative Analyst (+61) 3 9670 8615 ethan.xing@bondadviser.com.au With
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationAsset Allocation Model March Update
The month of February was marked by a sell-off in global equity markets and a sudden increase in market volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index reaching its highest level since August 2015. The rout
More informationMonetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand. by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008
Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008 Presentation Outline 2 Monetary Transmission Mechanism Interest Rates and
More informationMarket Overview. Australian Shares
Market Overview Australian Shares Australian shares were weakening even before the global late August squall and were always likely to travel badly when market conditions turned bumpy: o For the quarter,
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationChina Economic Outlook 2013
China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationGlobal Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
More informationFed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates
Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights
More informationSchroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update
Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Fund Performance As at 30 September 2014, SGD 1 month Year to date Since launch* Schroder Asian Income Fund (Bid-Bid) (%) -1.7 8.4 35.2 Schroder Asian Income Fund
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018
4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationFederal Budget : This Time It s Personal. May 2018
Federal Budget 2018-19: This Time It s Personal May 2018 Executive Summary The Federal Government and the nation s fiscal position have become the beneficiaries of an unexpected windfall primarily in the
More information2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook
211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationJapan Chart Book. 5 February 2014
Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual
More informationFX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016
Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Chart Of The Day
More informationEconomic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective
Economic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective White Paper RecessionProtect.com Whilst history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, so the saying goes.
More informationJanuary market performance. Equity Markets Price Indices Index
Global Central Banks continue to lower interest rates. The RBA cuts the cash rate by 25bp to 2.25% (February 2015). The ECB finally announces Quantitative Easing 60b per month. Oil prices declined again
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JULY 2017 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P
More informationGlobal Economic Overview. - Global Financial Instability & Outlook - Green shoots or weeds? - Ramifications for Australia
Global Economic Overview - Global Financial Instability & Outlook - Green shoots or weeds? - Ramifications for Australia Alan Oster - Group Chief Economist 1 Apr-2 Jan-3 Oct-3 Jul-4 Apr-5 Jan-6 Oct-6 Jul-7
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationZenith Monthly Market Report Zenith Monthly Market Report (30 June 2010)
Zenith Monthly Market Report (30 June 2010) Market Indicators Market Indicator End of Month Previous Month 1 Month Change 12 Months Ago 12 Month Change Interest Rates Overnight Cash 4.50 4.50 0.00% 3.00
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationMLC Horizon 1 - Bond Portfolio
Horizon 1 - Bond Portfolio Annual Review September 2009 Investment Management Level 12, 105 153 Miller Street North Sydney NSW 2060 review for the year ending 30 September 2009 Page 1 of 11 Important information
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More informationRepublic of Korea Contributions to growth (demand) Quarterly GDP growth
Republic of Korea The export sector was surprisingly strong in, but domestic demand wilted, resulting in economic growth below potential. Subpar growth is expected again this year, with the uncertain global
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Households and Household Saving
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Households and Household Saving November 2018 Released at 11am on 22 November 2018 Housing and households Consumption
More informationMONTHLY UPDATE NOVEMBER 2018
MONTHLY UPDATE NOVEMBER 2018 November 2018 A champion is defined not by their wins but by how they can recover when they fall. Equity markets - Serena Williams Indices 31 st Oct 2018 30 th Nov 2018 1 Month
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationJune Summary. Business investment weighs on growth. 1Q15 GDP Growth. Components of GDP
Mar 95 Jul 96 Nov 97 Mar 99 Jul 00 Nov 01 Mar 03 Jul 04 Nov 05 Mar 07 Jul 08 Nov 09 GDP Australian 1Q15: GDP: An Export XXX Story June 2015 June 2015 Summary Business investment weighs on growth GDP grew
More informationPRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY
BANK OF UGANDA PRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY 19, 2012 MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES Introduction I want to
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationQ QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES
Q2-219 QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES Tavistock Wealth - Investment Team Outlook Christopher Peel - John Leiper - Andrew Pottie - Sekar Indran - Alex Livingstone India Turnbull - Jonah Levy - James Peel Welcome
More informationInvesting in Today s World with Thoughts of Tomorrow. Presented by: Jeff Matthias, CFA
Investing in Today s World with Thoughts of Tomorrow Presented by: Jeff Matthias, CFA Wisconsin Coalition of Annuitants May 11, 2018 Today s Key Takeaways Investor Inputs Market Recap Investment Outlook
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationThe ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. First quarter of 2017
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters First quarter of 217 January 217 Contents 1 Near-term inflation expectations a little higher, due to oil price rises 3 2 Longer-term inflation expectations unchanged
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationManaging Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia
Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition
More informationNordkinn Market Review & Outlook April 2018
Nordkinn Market Review & Outlook April 2018 Addressed to Nordkinn s Followers on LinkedIn for informational purposes Please note that the content of thetom Nordkinn Market Review & Outlook Report may not
More informationTotal
The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,
More informationCor Capital Fund MONTHLY REPORT & FACT SHEET 31 OCTOBER MTD: -3.7% 12M: -2.0% 3yr Ann: 4.7% 3yr Vol: 7.4% Description
MONTHLY REPORT & FACT SHEET 31 OCTOBER 218 MTD: -3.7% 12M: -2.% 3yr Ann: 4.7% 3yr Vol: 7.4% Description The Cor Capital Fund is an Australian registered managed investment scheme that seeks to generate
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationForecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta
Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Huiyu(Evelyn) Huang Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo& Co., LLC June 23, 215 For presentation at ISF 215. The opinions expressed here are solely
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationMacro Outlook September 2014
Macro Outlook September 2014 Interest Rate Markets The sharp increase in government debt in the world s major developed economies, as a consequence of the financial crisis, remains a key driver of monetary
More informationEARNINGS OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK. EXHIBIT 1: EUROPE EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) BY SECTOR % change (y/y) Cons. Disc. Care
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin 28 February 2017 European equities: Q4 earnings review and outlook for 2017 IN BRIEF With 72% of companies having reported, we estimate that Q4 2016 earnings per share (EPS)
More informationAspiriant Risk-Managed Equity Allocation Fund RMEAX Q4 2018
Aspiriant Risk-Managed Equity Allocation Fund Q4 2018 Investment Objective Description The Aspiriant Risk-Managed Equity Allocation Fund ( or the Fund ) seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation
More informationUK Economic Outlook July 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects UK housing market outlook Nowcasting current GDP growth PwC 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly stronger
More informationMacro Briefing A monthly review of the economy and markets January 2014
Macro Briefing A monthly review of the economy and markets January 1 Stock Markets Performance January 1 Asia ex Europe US Returns (%) - - -3 - -1 3 Months Asia ex Europe US Returns (%) - - -3 - -1 1 3
More informationDAC Wealth Builder: $10,000 Growth from Inception
DAC Wealth Builder: $10,000 Growth from Inception $13,500 $13,416 $13,000 $12,500 $12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 12/2014 03/2015 06/2015 09/2015 12/2015 03/2016 06/2016 09/2016 12/2016 03/2017
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 12 th March 2019 Earnings to weigh on emerging market equities A slowdown in both the United States and Chinese economies will weigh heavily on export growth in the
More informationStock Market Report. January 26, 2005
January 26, 25 Stock Market Report Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, January 21, 25 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals to interpret
More informationMONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Your fund. Your wealth. Your future. MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT Commentary on the global economy and performance of the financial markets MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT (KEY INSIGHTS) DECEMBER 2017 The 2017 calendar
More informationFY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY February 2019
% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND February 19 Consumer prices In January 19, annual inflation held at the lower bound of the Bank of Russia expectations (.% YoY). Faster growth of food prices to.% (vs.7%
More informationTerm Deposit Review: January 2019
Fixed Income Markets Credit Research 7 February 2019 Term Deposit Review: January 2019 Simon Fletcher Head of Research (+61) 3 9670 8615 simon.fletcher@bondadviser.com.au Charlie Callan Credit Analyst
More informationForecasting Australian new motor vehicle prices
0 September 00 Economics@ Forecasting Australian new motor vehicle prices Background The Economics@ANZ motor vehicle price model aims to forecast the price index for new cars as published by the Australian
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationMercer Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends
Mercer Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends 4.03 Editors Peter Summers Anne Leahy The Mercer Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends is published by the Melbourne
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationThe increasing importance of multi asset solutions genuine diversification to reduce total risk
The increasing importance of multi asset solutions genuine diversification to reduce total risk Ariconsult Vermögensverwaltungs-Symposium 17 September 2014 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This
More informationEU steel market situation and outlook. Key challenges
70th Session of the OECD Steel Committee Paris, 12 13 May 2011 EU steel market situation and outlook http://www.eurofer.org/index.php/eng/issues-positions/economic-development-steel-market Key challenges
More informationManager Comparison Report June 28, Report Created on: July 25, 2013
Manager Comparison Report June 28, 213 Report Created on: July 25, 213 Page 1 of 14 Performance Evaluation Manager Performance Growth of $1 Cumulative Performance & Monthly s 3748 3578 348 3238 368 2898
More informationUpdate on Oil Prices. Looking at the market s response as the oil price has fallen
Update on Oil Prices Looking at the market s response as the oil price has fallen Introduction and recap Frontier s Capital Markets and Asset Allocation Team (CMAAT) released a publication on oil in December
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationGLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields
More informationMonthly Market Snapshot
ly Market Snapshot AUGUST 2017 The ly Market Snapshot publication provides commentary on the global economy and the performance of financial markets Key insights In August, global equities marginally increased,
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationCosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
More informationDAC Wealth Protector: $10,000 Growth from Inception
DAC Wealth Protector: $10,000 Growth from Inception $11,600 $11,661 $11,400 $11,200 $11,000 $10,800 $10,600 $10,400 $10,200 $10,000 12/2014 03/2015 06/2015 09/2015 12/2015 03/2016 06/2016 09/2016 12/2016
More information