Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand. by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008
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1 Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008
2 Presentation Outline 2 Monetary Transmission Mechanism Interest Rates and Bank Lending Exchange Rate Asset Prices Expectations Relative importance of key transmission channels Major changes influencing MP transmission since the 1997 financial crisis Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in the Thai banking system in
3 Monetary Policy Transmission 3 Transmission channels Central bank S-T Interest Rate Interest rates Bank lending Exchange rate Output and OMO Asset prices Inflation Expectation
4 Pass-through via interest rates and bank lending 4 Policy rate to money market rates and the term structure of interest rates Policy rate to commercial bank rates (Deposit & MLR) Dynamic Multiplier Model (DMM)
5 Money market rates and short-term bond yields respond quickly to and in the same direction as the current policy rate change 5 % 5.0 Money Market Rates % 8 Government Bond Yields Y Y 5 Y 3 Y 2 Y 1 Y D R/P M 1.0 Interbank 1D R/P Jan 03 Jul-03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan Jun Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug-05 8-Nov-05 3-Feb-06 9-May-06
6 Long-term bond yields depend on market expectations of future policy rate changes, but the response is also quick 6 % p.a. 7 Thai Government Bond Yield Curve Jun Dec Dec Aug Jan m 3m 6m TTM (years)
7 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 7 Interest Rate Channel As of Jan 2003 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9 The magnification of transmission via interest rate channel could be explained by the adoption of Inflation Targeting that uses interest rate as the policy signal and the increased importance of bond market
8 Pass-through via interest rates and bank lending 8 Policy rate to money market rates and the term structure of interest rates Policy rate to commercial bank rates (Deposit & MLR) Dynamic Multiplier Model (DMM)
9 Policy retail interest rates 9 % p.a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Monetary Targeting Floating Exchange Rate Regime Inflation Targeting (RP rate as policy instrument) RP14 3m deposit MLR Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Source: Bank of Thailand
10 Pass-through* from policy rate to retail rates The degree of interest rate pass-through changes over time, depending to a significant extent on how well the banking sector s intermediary role functions Long run impact (MLR) Around , the weakened pass-through was partly due to excess liquidity in the banking system M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M01 * Using the dynamic multiplier method, i.e., regressing DMLR on DRP14d (contemporaneous and lagged) and lagged DMLR with a rolling window of 50 observations
11 Pass-through from policy rate to retail rates 11 Degree of pass-through of policy rate to 3-mth deposit rate (RD3M) and MLR as estimated by the dynamic multiplier model Interest rates Period Impact Immediate 3-month 6-month Long-run RD3M 1989m1 1995m m1 2007m MLR 1989m1 1995m m1 2007m Despite a temporary period of impaired transmission, there is evidence that the pass-though from policy rate to retail rates has picked up in the most recent years. There is also evidence that this transmission channel has become quicker (but not stronger as a whole) since 2000 compared to the pre-crisis period.
12 International comparison of MLR pass-through 12 Country Impact 3 months 6 months Long Run Germany Australia US UK Denmark Finland Singapore Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Japan Thailand
13 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 13 Bank Lending Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul GDP %deviation from Baseline GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel All Channel W/O Banking W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 Q1 Q5 Q9 Further discussion on bank lending channel in the following section Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity
14 Interest Rate and Bank Lending Channels 14 Transmission from the policy rate to money market and bond yields, both short- and long-term, functions quite well. With the increased importance of the bond market, this channel has gained importance over the years. The pass-through to commercial banks rates and lending, however, was temporarily impaired after the financial crisis, though it has returned to normal in the most recent years.
15 Exchange Rate Channel remains important 15 According to econometric results, the interest rate differential is found to have a small but statistically significant effect on Thailand s exchange rate movements* Nevertheless, the impact of exchange rate on the real economy is always significant. Effect of 1% depreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)** Economic growth Headline inflation Core inflation As of Jul Note: **average effect in 1 year Note:* A 1% increase in the interest rate differential will cause the THB exchange rate to appreciate by 0.088%, D(FX) = e-06*D(BP(-1)) *D(YENDOLLAR) *INTDIFF +[AR(1)=0.426] GARCH = *RESID(-1)^ *GARCH(-1)
16 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 16 Exchange Rate Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9
17 Asset Price Movements: House and Stock Prices 17 Index (Year 2000 = 100) 130 Index (30 Apr 1975 = 100) Single-detached house Town house SET (RHS) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Government Housing Bank, SET and Bank of Thailand
18 Asset Price Channel remains weak in Thailand 18 Most of household wealth is in the form of residential and commercial real estate (non-financial assets). These assets are quite illiquid, while equity withdrawal from these assets is still limited in Thailand. Even financial assets held by households are mostly deposit accounts, not securities whose values are sensitive to changes in the policy interest rate Composition of Household wealth Composition of Financial Assets 2% 29% 43% 13% 13% 23% 15% 5% 55% 2% Vehicles RealEstate (residential) RealEstate (commercial) Financial Assets Livestock Deposit accounts Providence funds, insurance Others Stocks, bonds, mutual funds Cash and jewellry Source: National Statistical Office s Socio-Economic Survey, 2006
19 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 19 Asset Price Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9
20 Comparison Across Transmission Channels as of January GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9
21 Comparison Across Transmission Channels as of July GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9
22 Monetary policy transmission in Thailand 22 Monetary policy transmission is primarily through the interest rate and exchange rate channels However, the sensitivity of retail interest rates to the policy interest rate was temporarily impaired after the financial crisis Asset price channel has yet to develop
23 Factors influencing the transmission channels 23 Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in Thai banking system during
24 Firms reliance on bank financing declined as banks balance sheets deteriorated and risk aversion rose significantly in Financing Relative to GDP ( ) Percent of GDP 1997 crisis 160% 140% 120% 100% Commercial banks SFIs Stocks Finance companies Bonds 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Note: Commercial banks, finance companies and credit foncier companies and SFIs (total assets); stocks (SET market capitalization); bonds (outstanding values of public and corporate bonds at par value) Sources: BOT; SET; TBDC
25 A more limited role of bank lending 25 % The ratio of bank credits to GDP has fallen since the financial crisis, confirming a significant degree of disintermediation. The recovery in GDP has not been accompanied by a comparable bank credit expansion. Bank credit / GDP GDP vs. Real credit growth Source: BOT, NESDB
26 A more limited role of bank lending 26 Bond and equity markets have become important alternative sources of financing for large firms. Billion Baht 600 Private Sector s Sources of Funds Bank loans (Change in stock) SFI loans (Change in stock) Stocks (New issue) Bonds (New issue excl short-term bills)
27 Factors influencing the transmission channels 27 Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in Thai banking system during
28 Transmission through R/P on the asset side of a bank s balance sheet is less effective 28 Bond Loan Deposit R/P R/P Bond Loan Deposit Returns Loans MLR = Cost of funding + spread Deposits R/P R/P Unusually low rate Risks Billion baht Net R/P Lending of Banks
29 Conceptual Framework 29 Based on specifying the proportion of disposable liquidity as excess Disposable liquidity includes public-sector securities, net foreign asset (NFA), and net lending in R/P Billion baht Disposable Liquidity Securities NFA NL in RP Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Source: BOT calculation
30 Conceptual Framework (cont.) 30 The dynamic process is based on the relative risk-return profile of each asset For example, an asset is considered excess if the risk-adjusted returns are low relative other assets such as loans. However, as its relative returns rise, banks will be more willing to hold, and it will become less excess. excess
31 Relative Returns: returns on liquid assets have risen higher compared with deposit and lending rates 31 Relative Returns of Liquid Assets to Loan Gov/MLR LIBOR/MLR RP/MLR % Deposit rates of 4 large banks 14-D RP 12 M M 3 M Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 0 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 resulting in higher demand for liquidity (i.e. more willing to hold liquid assets like R/P)
32 Thus, excess liquidity decreased from around 15% of deposits at the beginning of the tightening cycle to around 6% of deposit 32 Billion baht % of deposits 800 Measure of Excess Liquidity 20% % % 8% 5. 90% 4% 0 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 0% Securities** Net RP** NFA** EL/Deposits Source: BOT calculation
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