Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand. by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand. by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008"

Transcription

1 Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanism in Thailand by Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand February 2008

2 Presentation Outline 2 Monetary Transmission Mechanism Interest Rates and Bank Lending Exchange Rate Asset Prices Expectations Relative importance of key transmission channels Major changes influencing MP transmission since the 1997 financial crisis Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in the Thai banking system in

3 Monetary Policy Transmission 3 Transmission channels Central bank S-T Interest Rate Interest rates Bank lending Exchange rate Output and OMO Asset prices Inflation Expectation

4 Pass-through via interest rates and bank lending 4 Policy rate to money market rates and the term structure of interest rates Policy rate to commercial bank rates (Deposit & MLR) Dynamic Multiplier Model (DMM)

5 Money market rates and short-term bond yields respond quickly to and in the same direction as the current policy rate change 5 % 5.0 Money Market Rates % 8 Government Bond Yields Y Y 5 Y 3 Y 2 Y 1 Y D R/P M 1.0 Interbank 1D R/P Jan 03 Jul-03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan Jun Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug-05 8-Nov-05 3-Feb-06 9-May-06

6 Long-term bond yields depend on market expectations of future policy rate changes, but the response is also quick 6 % p.a. 7 Thai Government Bond Yield Curve Jun Dec Dec Aug Jan m 3m 6m TTM (years)

7 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 7 Interest Rate Channel As of Jan 2003 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9 The magnification of transmission via interest rate channel could be explained by the adoption of Inflation Targeting that uses interest rate as the policy signal and the increased importance of bond market

8 Pass-through via interest rates and bank lending 8 Policy rate to money market rates and the term structure of interest rates Policy rate to commercial bank rates (Deposit & MLR) Dynamic Multiplier Model (DMM)

9 Policy retail interest rates 9 % p.a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Monetary Targeting Floating Exchange Rate Regime Inflation Targeting (RP rate as policy instrument) RP14 3m deposit MLR Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Source: Bank of Thailand

10 Pass-through* from policy rate to retail rates The degree of interest rate pass-through changes over time, depending to a significant extent on how well the banking sector s intermediary role functions Long run impact (MLR) Around , the weakened pass-through was partly due to excess liquidity in the banking system M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M01 * Using the dynamic multiplier method, i.e., regressing DMLR on DRP14d (contemporaneous and lagged) and lagged DMLR with a rolling window of 50 observations

11 Pass-through from policy rate to retail rates 11 Degree of pass-through of policy rate to 3-mth deposit rate (RD3M) and MLR as estimated by the dynamic multiplier model Interest rates Period Impact Immediate 3-month 6-month Long-run RD3M 1989m1 1995m m1 2007m MLR 1989m1 1995m m1 2007m Despite a temporary period of impaired transmission, there is evidence that the pass-though from policy rate to retail rates has picked up in the most recent years. There is also evidence that this transmission channel has become quicker (but not stronger as a whole) since 2000 compared to the pre-crisis period.

12 International comparison of MLR pass-through 12 Country Impact 3 months 6 months Long Run Germany Australia US UK Denmark Finland Singapore Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Japan Thailand

13 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 13 Bank Lending Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul GDP %deviation from Baseline GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel All Channel W/O Banking W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 Q1 Q5 Q9 Further discussion on bank lending channel in the following section Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity

14 Interest Rate and Bank Lending Channels 14 Transmission from the policy rate to money market and bond yields, both short- and long-term, functions quite well. With the increased importance of the bond market, this channel has gained importance over the years. The pass-through to commercial banks rates and lending, however, was temporarily impaired after the financial crisis, though it has returned to normal in the most recent years.

15 Exchange Rate Channel remains important 15 According to econometric results, the interest rate differential is found to have a small but statistically significant effect on Thailand s exchange rate movements* Nevertheless, the impact of exchange rate on the real economy is always significant. Effect of 1% depreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)** Economic growth Headline inflation Core inflation As of Jul Note: **average effect in 1 year Note:* A 1% increase in the interest rate differential will cause the THB exchange rate to appreciate by 0.088%, D(FX) = e-06*D(BP(-1)) *D(YENDOLLAR) *INTDIFF +[AR(1)=0.426] GARCH = *RESID(-1)^ *GARCH(-1)

16 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 16 Exchange Rate Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9

17 Asset Price Movements: House and Stock Prices 17 Index (Year 2000 = 100) 130 Index (30 Apr 1975 = 100) Single-detached house Town house SET (RHS) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Government Housing Bank, SET and Bank of Thailand

18 Asset Price Channel remains weak in Thailand 18 Most of household wealth is in the form of residential and commercial real estate (non-financial assets). These assets are quite illiquid, while equity withdrawal from these assets is still limited in Thailand. Even financial assets held by households are mostly deposit accounts, not securities whose values are sensitive to changes in the policy interest rate Composition of Household wealth Composition of Financial Assets 2% 29% 43% 13% 13% 23% 15% 5% 55% 2% Vehicles RealEstate (residential) RealEstate (commercial) Financial Assets Livestock Deposit accounts Providence funds, insurance Others Stocks, bonds, mutual funds Cash and jewellry Source: National Statistical Office s Socio-Economic Survey, 2006

19 GDP growth response to an interest rate shock according to BOTMM 19 Asset Price Channel As of Jan 2003 As of Jul 2006 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9

20 Comparison Across Transmission Channels as of January GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9

21 Comparison Across Transmission Channels as of July GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Asset Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Banking Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O FX Q1 Q5 Q9 GDP %deviation from Baseline All Channel W/O Interest Rate Q1 Q5 Q9

22 Monetary policy transmission in Thailand 22 Monetary policy transmission is primarily through the interest rate and exchange rate channels However, the sensitivity of retail interest rates to the policy interest rate was temporarily impaired after the financial crisis Asset price channel has yet to develop

23 Factors influencing the transmission channels 23 Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in Thai banking system during

24 Firms reliance on bank financing declined as banks balance sheets deteriorated and risk aversion rose significantly in Financing Relative to GDP ( ) Percent of GDP 1997 crisis 160% 140% 120% 100% Commercial banks SFIs Stocks Finance companies Bonds 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Note: Commercial banks, finance companies and credit foncier companies and SFIs (total assets); stocks (SET market capitalization); bonds (outstanding values of public and corporate bonds at par value) Sources: BOT; SET; TBDC

25 A more limited role of bank lending 25 % The ratio of bank credits to GDP has fallen since the financial crisis, confirming a significant degree of disintermediation. The recovery in GDP has not been accompanied by a comparable bank credit expansion. Bank credit / GDP GDP vs. Real credit growth Source: BOT, NESDB

26 A more limited role of bank lending 26 Bond and equity markets have become important alternative sources of financing for large firms. Billion Baht 600 Private Sector s Sources of Funds Bank loans (Change in stock) SFI loans (Change in stock) Stocks (New issue) Bonds (New issue excl short-term bills)

27 Factors influencing the transmission channels 27 Banking disintermediation Excess liquidity in Thai banking system during

28 Transmission through R/P on the asset side of a bank s balance sheet is less effective 28 Bond Loan Deposit R/P R/P Bond Loan Deposit Returns Loans MLR = Cost of funding + spread Deposits R/P R/P Unusually low rate Risks Billion baht Net R/P Lending of Banks

29 Conceptual Framework 29 Based on specifying the proportion of disposable liquidity as excess Disposable liquidity includes public-sector securities, net foreign asset (NFA), and net lending in R/P Billion baht Disposable Liquidity Securities NFA NL in RP Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Source: BOT calculation

30 Conceptual Framework (cont.) 30 The dynamic process is based on the relative risk-return profile of each asset For example, an asset is considered excess if the risk-adjusted returns are low relative other assets such as loans. However, as its relative returns rise, banks will be more willing to hold, and it will become less excess. excess

31 Relative Returns: returns on liquid assets have risen higher compared with deposit and lending rates 31 Relative Returns of Liquid Assets to Loan Gov/MLR LIBOR/MLR RP/MLR % Deposit rates of 4 large banks 14-D RP 12 M M 3 M Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 0 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 resulting in higher demand for liquidity (i.e. more willing to hold liquid assets like R/P)

32 Thus, excess liquidity decreased from around 15% of deposits at the beginning of the tightening cycle to around 6% of deposit 32 Billion baht % of deposits 800 Measure of Excess Liquidity 20% % % 8% 5. 90% 4% 0 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 0% Securities** Net RP** NFA** EL/Deposits Source: BOT calculation

Monetary Policy under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Thailand s s Experience. Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Bank of Thailand

Monetary Policy under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Thailand s s Experience. Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Thailand s s Experience Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Bank of Thailand Overview 2 Introduction Inflation targeting framework in Thailand Challenges ahead and

More information

Ten years after: Implications of the current financial market turmoil. Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor Bank of Thailand

Ten years after: Implications of the current financial market turmoil. Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor Bank of Thailand Ten years after: Implications of the current financial market turmoil Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor Bank of Thailand I. The 1997 East Asia Crisis II. Latest Episode Causes of the 1997 Crisis 3

More information

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009 World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Key developments and outlook

Key developments and outlook 1/22 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually

More information

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003 OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican

More information

Hong Kong s Experience

Hong Kong s Experience Cross Border Issues IMF Conference on Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring Washington, D. C. 26 May 21 Hong Kong s Experience Dong He Executive Director (Research) Hong Kong Monetary Authority 1 Outline

More information

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11

More information

Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia

Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author

More information

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment 3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor 28-29 April 214, Skopje Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

Exchange Rate Pass Through Inflation in Thailand

Exchange Rate Pass Through Inflation in Thailand Exchange Rate Pass Through Inflation in Thailand Panit Wattanakoon 1 1 Faculty of Economics Thammasat University Setthathat 2011 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Inflation in Thailand from 2000 to 2010 3 Literature

More information

Recent Asia experiences with capital flows

Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Rob Subbaraman, Chief Economist Asia Ex-Japan December 2007 Asia ex-japan's total balance of payments % of GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

More information

Poland s Economic Prospects

Poland s Economic Prospects Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real

More information

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack

ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to

More information

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets Ehsan Choudhri Distinguished Research Professor Carleton University ehsan.choudhri@carleton.ca and Hamza Ali Malik Director,

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

Business Cycle Index July 2010

Business Cycle Index July 2010 Business Cycle Index July 2010 Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce, Tel. 0 2507 5805, Fax. 0 2507 5806, www.price.moc.go.th Thailand economic still expansion. Medium-run Leading

More information

Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy

Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy Luděk Niedermayer 1 This paper discusses several empirical aspects of the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy. The introduction

More information

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013 Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 13 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 May-1 Sep-1 May-13

More information

(Registration no C) (Registration no C) Financial Results. (unaudited) 11 November 2009

(Registration no C) (Registration no C) Financial Results. (unaudited) 11 November 2009 3 rd Quarter and 9-Month 9 2009 Financial Results (unaudited) 11 November 2009 1 Important note on forward looking statements The presentation herein may contain forward looking statements by the management

More information

2017 Thai Bond Market Review

2017 Thai Bond Market Review Highlights of 2017 2017 Thai Bond Market Review Despite repeatedly predictions about rising rates, Thai bond market in 2017 showed another year of solid growth both in corporate bond issuance and fund

More information

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI

More information

THE. July, Why the Korean economy looks poised to hit the wall in late 2017 while Australia is set to resist the global weakness.

THE. July, Why the Korean economy looks poised to hit the wall in late 2017 while Australia is set to resist the global weakness. THE MAVERICK July, 217 Why the Korean economy looks poised to hit the wall in late 217 while Australia is set to resist the global weakness. P a g e 1 Highlights Korea Korean money supply growth has peaked

More information

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights

More information

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999 Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International

More information

0 V3 12/11/58 15:51 น.

0 V3 12/11/58 15:51 น. 0 1 Management Discussion and Analysis Overview of the Economy and Banking Thai Economy in the Third Quarter of Thailand s economy in the third quarter of recovered at a moderate pace. Domestic demand

More information

Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth

Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth 1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

ASIA BOND MONITOR JUNE 2013

ASIA BOND MONITOR JUNE 2013 ASIA BOND MONITOR JUNE 2013 ASIA BOND MONITOR JUNE 2013 2013 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2013. Printed in the Philippines. ISSN 2219-1526 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-9254-134-7 (PDF) Publication

More information

Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on

More information

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.

More information

Monetary policy of the ECB, its concepts and tools

Monetary policy of the ECB, its concepts and tools Monetary policy of the ECB, its concepts and tools Frankfurt am Main, 20 September 2011 Markus A. Schmidt Directorate Monetary Policy 1 Disclaimer The views expressed are those of the presenter and should

More information

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives .Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives How important is NEER to export growth? Strategies on Macro / FX/ Rates 1 April 2016 Non-conventional policies have resulted in non-normal consequences Currency

More information

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

More information

The new liquidity measurement model developed by the Hungarian Central Bank during the financial crisis

The new liquidity measurement model developed by the Hungarian Central Bank during the financial crisis The new liquidity measurement model developed by the Júlia Király Deputy Governor 29 November 212 Content Liquidity and measurement prior to the crisis New measures and new data collection during the crisis

More information

Mexico s Economic Policy under External Constraints. Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board

Mexico s Economic Policy under External Constraints. Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 27, 2012 Contents 1 Monetary Policy and Capital Inflows 2 Implications of European Uncertainty 3 Economic Developments

More information

Capital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability. Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile

Capital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability. Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile Capital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE NOVEMBER 211 Sources of Risk Potential sources of risk In the global

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

The Thai economy is viewed to moderate from last assessment from the intensified impact of the euro area s crisis on merchandise exports, which, in

The Thai economy is viewed to moderate from last assessment from the intensified impact of the euro area s crisis on merchandise exports, which, in 1 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 2 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 3 The Thai economy is viewed to moderate from

More information

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013 Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 213 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 212 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. First 11 months Total US$-value

More information

Investor Presentation. December 2013

Investor Presentation. December 2013 Investor Presentation December 2013 24.02.2014 Table of Contents 1. Thai economy 2. Strengthening bank and client base 3. BBL s financial results Thai economy in 2014-2015 Thailand is facing short-term

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

2.1 Supply. Bank of Thailand, January Nominal Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

2.1 Supply. Bank of Thailand, January Nominal Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Bank of Thailand, uary 2.1 Supply Farm income continually increased but concentrated in certain crops and regions. Service sector continued to expand, especially for tourism-related activities on the back

More information

2.1 Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Bank of Thailand, October 2017

2.1 Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Bank of Thailand, October 2017 Bank of Thailand, October 2.1 Supply Farm income contracted from both decreased agricultural prices and output. Manufacturing production remained unchanged from the same period last year. The overall services

More information

EconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015

EconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015 EconWatch 21 August 2015 Patricia Oh Swee Ling patricia-oh@ambankgroup.com 603-2036 2240 Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US Investment Highlights Qualms of currency

More information

Interim results briefing Jyri Luomakoski President and CEO Riitta Palomäki CFO 1 3 / 2016

Interim results briefing Jyri Luomakoski President and CEO Riitta Palomäki CFO 1 3 / 2016 Interim results briefing Jyri Luomakoski President and CEO Riitta Palomäki CFO 1 3 / 2016 Q1/2016: Steady progress in Europe, strong growth in North America January - March, M Net sales Healthy U.S. market

More information

CBK Weekly Statistical Bulletin of Key Monetary and Financial Indicators

CBK Weekly Statistical Bulletin of Key Monetary and Financial Indicators JANUARY 13, 2017 Highlights The money market was relatively tight during the week ending January 11, 2017. The average interbank rate was stable at 7.54 percent in the week ending January 11, 2017 compared

More information

Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan. Dr. Muhammad Nadim Hanif Senior Economist State Bank of Pakistan. Monetary Policy Framework in Pakistan

Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan. Dr. Muhammad Nadim Hanif Senior Economist State Bank of Pakistan. Monetary Policy Framework in Pakistan Dr. Muhammad Nadim Hanif Senior Economist State Bank of Pakistan Road Map Monetary Policy Framework in Pakistan Objective of Monetary Policy Monetary Policy Regime --- Targets and Instruments Independence

More information

Monetary Policy in India

Monetary Policy in India Monetary Policy in India Deepak Mohanty Executive Director Reserve Bank of India September 16, 2013 1 I. Objective(s) An Outline II. III. IV. Policy Framework Operating Procedure Outcome V. Conclusion

More information

MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016

MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016 1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th November, 2016 INTRODUCTION 2 This presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary

More information

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan

More information

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 24, 2014

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 24, 2014 Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 2, 21 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. Dec. Q Total US$-value 1,3 1,97 2,3

More information

Figure 1: Change in LEI-N August 2018

Figure 1: Change in LEI-N August 2018 Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 26, 2018 Prepared by the UNL College of Business, Bureau of Business Research Author: Dr. Eric Thompson Leading Economic Indicator...1 Coincident Economic

More information

L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study

L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute OT 18.52 Macroeconomic Diagnostics February 26 March 2, 2018 Presenter Stephan Danninger This training material

More information

Global Markets Group. Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report

Global Markets Group. Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report Global Markets Group Trade Outlook Monthly Report Economic Research August 2016 Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist Trade Highlights Exports in June 2016 rose

More information

WHAT DRIVES OUTPUT IN THAILAND?

WHAT DRIVES OUTPUT IN THAILAND? WHAT DRIVES OUTPUT IN THAILAND? Paul Beaumont, Onsurang Norrbin and Stefan Norrbin Presentation for CASA e-leader, Singapore, January 2013 Motivation: How strong is the coupling effect? Motivation How

More information

Monthly Economic Insight

Monthly Economic Insight Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.

More information

Macroprudential Policy in Korea - An Introduction to BOK Framework -

Macroprudential Policy in Korea - An Introduction to BOK Framework - II Meeting on Financial Stability Bogotá, Colombia (October 25, 2012) Macroprudential Policy in Korea - An Introduction to BOK Framework - Hyeonjin Cha Bank of Korea DISCLAIMER: This presentation represents

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

Financial stability risks: old and new

Financial stability risks: old and new Financial stability risks: old and new Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements 4 December 2014 Brookings Institution Washington DC *Views expressed here are mine, not necessarily those of the

More information

Recent developments in the Mexican Peso market. March 2009

Recent developments in the Mexican Peso market. March 2009 Recent developments in the Mexican Peso market March 2009 1 Index 1. The FX market before the financial turmoil 2. What we got right what we missed 3. Structural change in the FX market 4. Final remarks

More information

B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA S ECONOMY

B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA S ECONOMY B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA S ECONOMY 1. Indonesia s trade flows through the global crisis: from peak to trough and back again Indonesia s trade flows halved during the global economic crisis,

More information

- SET Index closed at 1, points at the end of January, up 5.58 percent from the end of 2014.

- SET Index closed at 1, points at the end of January, up 5.58 percent from the end of 2014. SET News 15/2015 Feb 9, 2015 Thai bourse market report for January 2015 Bangkok, February 9, 2015 The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) main index ended January at 1,581.25 points, up 5.58 percent from

More information

GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION

GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION May-1 Nov-1 May-1 Nov-1 THIS QUARTER IN ASIA Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs), Vol.11 April July 213 Source: OECD Development Centre GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan

Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan Macroeconomic development GDP, real growth, % 116 112 18 14 1 113,5 11,7 216,7223,8226,5 19,8 19,8 19,3 19,619,7 199,

More information

XML Publisher Balance Sheet Vision Operations (USA) Feb-02

XML Publisher Balance Sheet Vision Operations (USA) Feb-02 Page:1 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 ASSETS Current Assets Cash and Short Term Investments 15,862,304 51,998,607 9,198,226 Accounts Receivable - Net of Allowance 2,560,786

More information

- SET Index closed at 1, points at the end of February, up 0.4 percent from the end of January, or up 6 percent from the end of 2014.

- SET Index closed at 1, points at the end of February, up 0.4 percent from the end of January, or up 6 percent from the end of 2014. SET News 29/2015 Mar 12, 2015 Thai bourse market report for February 2015 Bangkok, March 12, 2015 The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) main index ended February at 1,587.01 points, up 0.4 percent from

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2015

Asia Bond Monitor November 2015 1 February 16 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided on 11 February to keep unchanged the overnight borrowing rate at.% and

More information

OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia, Tokyo. Session Measures taken by supervisors or regulators short selling restrictions

OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia, Tokyo. Session Measures taken by supervisors or regulators short selling restrictions OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia, Tokyo Session 3.1.2 Measures taken by supervisors or regulators short selling restrictions 2 March 2009 Keith Lui, Executive Director, Securities

More information

considered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for monetary policy going forward considered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for

considered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for monetary policy going forward considered by the MPC 2. Key developments to monitor for 1. Economic and inflation outlook considered by the MPC. Key developments to monitor for monetary policy going forward 1 1. Economic and inflation outlook considered by the MPC. Key developments to monitor

More information

Report on financial stability

Report on financial stability Report on financial stability Márton Nagy MNB Club 26 April 212 Key risks Deteriorating lending capacity stemming particularly from liquidity side raises the risk of a credit crunch, mainly in the corporate

More information

Global Markets Group. Trade Performance: Narrowing Surplus Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report

Global Markets Group. Trade Performance: Narrowing Surplus Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report Global Markets Group Trade Outlook Monthly Report Economic Research November 2016 Trade Performance: Narrowing Surplus Author: Juniman Chief Economist Trade Highlights Exports in September 2016 fell to

More information

Summary of Operating Results for the Bank and its Subsidiaries Quarter and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015

Summary of Operating Results for the Bank and its Subsidiaries Quarter and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015 1 Summary of Operating Results for the Bank and its Subsidiaries Quarter and Nine Months Ended September 30, Bangkok Bank and its subsidiaries have reported a consolidated net profit of Baht 9.1 billion

More information

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 July 2018 (Main evidence)

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 July 2018 (Main evidence) ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 July 2018 (Main evidence) LOANS AND DEPOSITS 1. In June 2018, loans to customers granted by banks operating in Italy, totalling 1,773.8 billion euro (cf. Table 1) was 37 billion higher

More information

May 2016 MLS Statistical ReportREALTORS

May 2016 MLS Statistical ReportREALTORS May 216 MLS Statistical ReportREALTORS 3 Year over Year Sales Comparison - Total Sales 25 2 15 1 5 213 214 215 216 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Summary Overall Since the beginning of

More information

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 24, 2015 Prepared by the UNL College of Business Administration, Department of Economics Authors: Dr. Eric Thompson, Dr. William Walstad Leading Economic Indicator...1

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

2.1 Supply. Economic and Monetary Conditions, July Nominal Farm Income. Real Farm Income

2.1 Supply. Economic and Monetary Conditions, July Nominal Farm Income. Real Farm Income Economic and Monetary Conditions, y 2.1 Supply Farm income expanded from the same period last year as supported mainly by increased agricultural production, while agricultural prices slightly contracted.

More information

The Market Expectations System: An Important Tool for Policy Support and Forecasting

The Market Expectations System: An Important Tool for Policy Support and Forecasting The Market Expectations System: An Important Tool for Policy Support and Forecasting Renato Jansson Rosek October 2013 I. Historical Background II. Main Features of the System III. Reports IV. Use in Policy

More information

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 March 2018 (Main evidence)

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 March 2018 (Main evidence) ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 March 2018 (Main evidence) LOANS AND DEPOSITS 1. In February 2018, loans to customers granted by banks operating in Italy, totalling 1,777.2 billion euro (cf. Table 1) was almost 70

More information

WisdomTree & Currency Hedging FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.

WisdomTree & Currency Hedging FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. WisdomTree & Currency Hedging Currency Hedging in Today s World The influence of central bank policy Gauging the impact currency has had on international returns Is it expensive to hedge currency risk?

More information

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 24, 2018 Prepared by the UNL College of Business, Bureau of Business Research Author: Dr. Eric Thompson Leading Economic Indicator...1 Coincident Economic

More information

О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors

О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors December 16 USD per barrel RUB / USD 2 Oil Eхporters Production-cut Agreements Support

More information

Half-Year 2014 Analyst and Investor Presentation

Half-Year 2014 Analyst and Investor Presentation Half-Year 204 Analyst and Investor Presentation DKSH Holding Ltd. August, 204 Welcome to the DKSH Half-Year 204 Analyst and Investor Presentation Page 2 H 204: Growth in a challenging market environment

More information

Outlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018

Outlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018 Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

Lindab Group presentation Q3 2010

Lindab Group presentation Q3 2010 lindab group presentation Lindab Group presentation Q3 2010 David Brodetsky, CEO Nils-Johan Andersson, CFO Agenda Highlights Group Business Areas Strategy Trends and outlook Q & A 2 Lindab Group Highlights

More information

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand

More information

Six good reasons for choosing DNB in the new banking environment

Six good reasons for choosing DNB in the new banking environment Six good reasons for choosing DNB in the new banking environment Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 18th Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2013 24 September, London Rune Bjerke, CEO of DNB 1 Reason

More information

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR FRANCE AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR JANUARY

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR FRANCE AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR JANUARY FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. CET, TUESDAY, MARCH 17, 2009 The Conference Board France Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR FRANCE AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC

More information