Real Property Institute of Canada 10:30 am, November 7, 2012 Montreal. David MacLeod Toronto Environment Office
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1 Real Property Institute of Canada 10:30 am, November 7, 2012 Montreal David MacLeod Toronto Environment Office
2 1. Context & Drivers for Action: More extreme weather a) Canada b) Toronto 2. Impacts of extreme weather on Toronto 3. Initiatives of Interest to Facilities Management Sector a) Risk Assessments b) Adaptation Working Group 2
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5 Ice Storm (January 1998) $2 billion (2005 dollars) Slave Lake wildfire $700 million Freaky Friday GTA rainstorm (August 19, 2005) $590 million Calgary area windstorm (July 2009) $500 million Calgary hailstorm (July 2010) >$400 million B.C. wildfires (Summer 2003) $200 million Edmonton floods (July 2004) $170 million Hurricane Juan (September 2003) $115 million Source: ICLR 2011
6 19 44 *Max Temp > 30C Projected Observed Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
7 Average annual temperatures increase by 4.4 o C Projected average winter temp. increases by 5.7 o C. Projected average summer temp. increases by 3.8 o C. The extreme daily minimum temperature - becomes less cold" by 13 o C. The extreme daily maximum temperature - "becomes warmer" by 7.6 o C. 7
8 Drivers Safety: avoid harm to residents & staff Customer service Cost avoidance: damage from extreme weather credit & insurance risk rating of City & taxpayers Legal liability of organizations & individuals Evidence of due diligence Challenges Outdated climate info, codes & standards & procurement policies Increasing concentration of built assets Aging infrastructure Resident behavior & expectations
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10 August 20, 2009 Two F-2s
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12 12 Source on Anticipated Impacts:
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18 18 Photos courtesy Jane-Finch.com
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21 $3M - Help Uninsured People $4M - Rebuild One Culvert $40M - Other repairs to City Infrastructure ~$300 Auto Commercial Payouts by Insurers ~$300 Sewer Backup Payouts by Insurers TOTAL $647 Million
22 Initiative # 1: Risk Assessments Initiative #2: Adaptation working group 22
23 Enterprise Risk Environmental Risk Climate Change Risk Risks from Extreme Weather Events Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool (screening level) Engineering Vulnerability Risk Assessment (PIEVC) Adaptive Actions Reduced Risks
24 The Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool is screeninglevel process supported by an electronic application MS Access database Desktop application Applicable to more complex organizations Adaptable to other types of risks (e.g. environment/ safety) Available subject to License Agreement 24
25 1. Establish the Context Start 1.1. Establish External Context 1.2. Establish Internal Context 1.3. Establish Risk Assessment Scope 1.4. Establish Risk Assessment Criteria 2. Risk Identification 2.1. Identify Sources/ Factors/ Causes 2.2. Identify Current Vulnerabilities & Existing Controls 2.3. Identify what if Risk Scenarios 3. Risk Analysis 3.1. Estimate Magnitude & Severity of Consequences (Current/ Future) 3.2. Estimate Likelihood of Occurrence (Current/Future) 3.3. Determine Risk Rating (Current/Future) 4. Risk Treatment 4.1. Identify Risks to be Treated 4.2. Identify Potential Control Options 4.3. Assess Risk Scenarios with New / Modified Controls 4.4. Assess Effectiveness of Controls (Residual Risk) End 25
26 Process & Tool developed (Deloitte) 2 Pilots completed: Roads dept. & Social Housing dept. Roads dept. $12.1 B replacement value 2 time periods: now & extreme weather types 90 critical asset & service classes 15 workshops 1700 risk scenarios 26
27 27 Ahead of the Storm: Climate Change Risk Management
28 28 Ahead of the Storm: Climate Change Risk Management
29 Low cost solution.. where possible 29
30 Basement Flood Program $743 Million investment over 10 years 30 Sometimes low cost is not possible
31 60 Participating Organizations Real Estate, Insurance, Banking, Telecom, Land & Air Transporation, Electrical,Water, Emergency Services, 3 Levels of gov t Purpose ID & manage risks to critical infrastructure & services due to extreme weather in Toronto region Focus for 2012: Electrical Focus for 2013: TBD on Nov. 19
32 ELECTRICAL SECTOR: Formed Electrical Sector Core Project Team (Sept 2011) Scan of Electrical Sector Adaptation Action in other Jurisdictions Survey of Electrical Customers Tolerance to Power Disruption Toronto Hydro Climate Change Engineering Vulnerability Risk Assessment (PIEVC) Climate Information Proposal 32
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34 David MacLeod Toronto Environment Office
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