Recap of 2014 A Look at Q Auto No Bed of Roses The New MCT/BAAT Capital Neutral? New Disclosures Liability Breakouts Cat Updates

Transcription

1 w w w. m s a r e s e a r c h. c o m / c i f f Agenda Recap of 2014 A Look at Q Auto No Bed of Roses The New MCT/BAAT Capital Neutral? New Disclosures Liability Breakouts Cat Updates 1

2 Recap of 2014 Industry at Year-End Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield ROE MCT or BAAT Ratio

3 Personal and Multi Line Writers Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield ROE MCT or BAAT Ratio Commercial Writers excluding Lloyd s Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield ROE MCT or BAAT Ratio

4 Reinsurers Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield ROE MCT or BAAT Ratio A Look at Q

5 Q Industry - Turning the Corner to Where? Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield 1.28 ROE 2.80 MCT or BAAT Ratio Q Commercial Lines Writers Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield 1.10 ROE 2.29 MCT or BAAT Ratio

6 Q Personal and Multi Line Writers Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield 1.43 ROE 1.75 MCT or BAAT Ratio Q Reinsurers Net Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Net UW Leverage Gross UW Leverage Investment Yield 0.80 ROE 2.31 MCT or BAAT Ratio

7 Auto - No Bed of Roses 7

8 112.6% 93.2% 89.8% 71.1% 8

9 100.9% 93.6% 91.1% 89.7% 9

10 99.4% 94.5% 86.0% 70.6% Eastern Winter of Discontent NFLD - Auto BI AB PD Total 10

11 Eastern Winter of Discontent NFLD - Auto BI AB PD Total Eastern Winter of Discontent PEI - Auto BI AB PD Total 11

12 Eastern Winter of Discontent PEI - Auto BI AB PD Total Eastern Winter of Discontent NS - Auto BI AB PD Total 12

13 Eastern Winter of Discontent NS - Auto BI AB PD Total Eastern Winter of Discontent NB - Auto BI AB PD Total 13

14 Eastern Winter of Discontent NB - Auto BI AB PD Total The New MCT/BAAT Capital Neutral? 14

15 2015 Q1 Required Over/Under 2014 Industry + 5.4% 2015 Q1 Available Over/Under 2014 Industry + 6.9% 15

16 2015 Q1 MCT Over/Under 2014 Industry + 4 pts Op Risk Charge % of Required Q Industry 23% 16

17 Diversification Credit % of Required Q Industry 15% Net Op Risk Divers Credit Charge % Q1/15 Industry 8% 17

18 New Disclosures Liability Breakouts New Disclosures - Liability Breakouts Liability Breakouts DPW ($'000s) % of Liab Line Canada DLR ON DLR Total CGL w/prod 1,496, , % 54.6% CGL w/o Prod 63, % Cyber 3, % D&O 88, % XS 38, % Prof Liab 350, % Umbrella 50, % Pollution 24, % Other 60, % Total 1,496, %

19 New Disclosures - Liability Breakouts Liability Breakouts DPW ($'000s) % of Liab Line Canada DLR ON DLR CGL w/prod 816, % CGL w/o Prod 63, % Cyber 3, % D&O 88, % XS 38, % Prof Liab 350, % Umbrella 50, % Pollution 24, % Other 60, % Total 1,496, % New Disclosures - Liability Breakouts Liability Breakouts DPW ($'000s) % of Liab Line Canada DLR ON DLR CGL w/prod 816, % CGL w/o Prod 63, % Cyber 3, % D&O 88, % XS 38, % Prof Liab 350, % Umbrella 50, % Pollution 24, % Other 60, % Total 1,496, %

20 New Disclosures - Liability Breakouts Liability Breakouts DPW ($'000s) % of Liab Line Canada DLR ON DLR CGL w/prod 816, % CGL w/o Prod 63, % Cyber 3, % D&O 88, % XS 38, % Prof Liab 350, % Umbrella 50, % Pollution 24, % Other 60, % Total 1,496, % New Disclosures - Liability Breakouts Liability Breakouts DPW ($'000s) % of Liab Line Canada DLR ON DLR CGL w/prod 816, % CGL w/o Prod 63, % Cyber 3, % D&O 88, % XS 38, % Prof Liab 350, % Umbrella 50, % Pollution 24, % Other 60, % Total 1,496, %

21 CIFF (May 27, 2015) 21

22 $600,000, CatIQ Insured Loss Estimates The Billion Dollar Shrug $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- CAT 150 CAT 153 CAT 154 CAT 156 CAT 157 CAT 158 CAT 163 Claims Incurred ALAE 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. $700,000, CatIQ Insured Loss Estimates by Province Stats & Estimates $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- North BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL Claims Incurred ALAE 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 22

23 2014 CatIQ Loss Estimates by Line of Business 2014 Claims Incurred by Line of Business Auto PD 22.12% Commercial Property 13.05% Personal Property 64.83% 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution CatIQ Loss Estimates by Line of Business Non Physical Damage 0.44% Personal Property Claims Incurred Airdrie PD 46.34% Sewer Sewer Backup Backup PD PD 27.84% 27.84% Other Physical Damage 71.72% Other Physical Damage 25.38% 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 23

24 2014 CatIQ Loss Estimates by Line of Business Commercial Property Claims Incurred Non Physical Damage 3.79% Physical Damage 96.21% 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 24

25 Q Temperature Extremes Temperature extremes from coast to coast March 13 th BC was 45 C warmer than NL 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. April 2015 River Flooding CatWATCH Atlantic Canada River Flood Watch Heavy snow melted gradually limiting any substantial flooding 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 25

26 May 2015 Southern Manitoba Severe Storms May 16 18, 2015 Colorado Low met an Artic Airmass Wind gusts up to 93 km/h 71.6 mm of rain (localized flooding) 15 cm of snow Declared a Notable Event (losses <$25M) 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. May 2015 Forest Fires & The Ongoing CatWATCH As of May 26 th : 2239 forest fires in Canada (over 133,000 hectares) Some Major Fires: Little Bobtail Lake Fire in BC Municipal District of Opportunity, AB Municipal District of Lesser Slave River, AB 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 26

27 2015 Outlook Potential Natural Catastrophes Flooding Risks Severe Weather Risks Forest Fire Risks Hurricane Risks Earthquake Risks 2015 Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. For more information: Carolyn Rennie Director of Catastrophic Loss Analysis Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). Not for redistribution. 27

28 w w w. m s a r e s e a r c h. c o m / c i f f 28