RISK MANAGEMENT: I SURVIVED WITHOUT IT BUT NOW I CANT LIVE WITHOUT IT.
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1 Can Stock Photo Inc. / iqoncept PMINEO 23 May 2013 Presented By Michael Garner MBA, PMP, PMI-RMP RISK MANAGEMENT: I SURVIVED WITHOUT IT BUT NOW I CANT LIVE WITHOUT IT.
2 PROJECT OVERVIEW Charter: Create a new motion architecture on Ethernet/IP. Needed to design a complete communication architecture and several new products utilizing the new architecture. All products and architecture need to be developed in parallel. 3 Divisions involved in the development.
3 PROJECT OVERVIEW (CONT) Initial team: 1 PM 1 Architect 6 Developers Final Team: 9 PM 1 Architect 60+ Developers 15+ Testers 3 Technical communicators
4 PROJECT RISK Project Risks Many definitions Risks are the potential events that can prevent us from reaching our project goals. Can Stock Photo Inc. / vicnt
5 WHERE ARE THE RISKS Short answer: Everywhere Long answer: 4 main areas Organizational political Project Mgmt/Admin Technical External Can Stock Photo Inc. / michel74100
6 OUR ROLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT We are risk management - enablers instigators facilitators And of course We are ultimately responsible for all risks even if we are not the risk owners.
7 CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS Individual Commitment and Responsibility Recognize RM Value Open and Honest Communications Integrated with Project Mgmt Successful Risk Management Organizational Commitment Scaled Risk Effort to the Project Practice Standard for Project Risk Management
8 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES Plan Risk Management ID Risks Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks Can Stock Photo Inc. / robertasch
9 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT Risk management planning is meant to be started at the very beginning of the project. Risks begin with the project scope and don t stop The plan then becomes the agreement on how risk management is going to be performed.
10 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT Will call out resources, time, and costs for risks. Define impact/probability levels. Define communications. Define roles and responsibilities
11 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES Plan Risk Management ID Risks Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks Can Stock Photo Inc. / kbuntu
12 ID RISKS You can t identify all risks. Some are going to remain hidden until they show up as an issue. We need to find the most potentially damaging risks. This is an iterative process.
13 ID RISKS Three main elements to risk ID The actual risk event, risk statement (ID risk) The probability of occurrence (qual and quant analysis) The impact if it occurs (qual and quant analysis)
14 ID RISKS PARADOX PMI recognizes paradox. Perform Risk Identification as early in project lifecycle as possible. ID risks in the project phase where uncertainty is the highest. There are benefits Greater time to develop a response. Early risk responses are usually less expensive.
15 ID RISKS Don t forget about identifying opportunities (PMBOK 5 th ed) now considers positive risks as opportunities. Much easier to discuss with team members and stake holders.
16 ID RISKS Two common risk statement structures. Cause Risk- Effect A Volcano erupts in Iceland grounding air traffic over Europe. The latest widget prototype is expected to ship from the EDC by air during this period. The receipt of these prototypes will be delayed by the amount of time it takes for air traffic to resume. Event Impact (If Then) IF a volcano erupts.and our prototype is.. THEN the shipment will be delayed.
17 ID RISKS We must always be able to communicate these risks. Risk Register Can be anything (we use Sharepoint) Key is everyone who is on team or stakeholder must have access. There is a tremendous amount of information in the register.
18 RISK REGISTER At minimum should contain: Risk Statement Probability Impact Owner Triggers Dates Disposition RBS Category Risk Response Plan Can Stock Photo Inc. / thomaseder
19 TOOLS Interviews Reviews Delphi Technique Brainstorming Crawford Slip Method Assumptions Analysis Can Stock Photo Inc. / mihalec
20 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS Can Stock Photo Inc. / Sebastian Used to determine probability and impact of risk. Based on Risk Plan helps determine risk prioritization. I prefer to use Low Medium High We use %
21 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS In a risk management plan a table like this would be used. Probability Low Medium High I m p a c t High High - Low High - Med High-High Medium Med - Low Med Med Med - High Low Low Low Low Med Low - High
22 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS Qualitative risk analysis results + RBS + WBS can help find points of commonality between risks.
23 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Quantitative risk analysis considers all risks simultaneously. Calculate overall project risks. Many times not possible due to lack of data. Can Stock Photo Inc. / sean
24 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Methods Monte Carlo Decision Tree Analysis
25 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
26 PLAN RISK RESPONSES: RISKS Strategies for Risks Avoid Transfer Mitigate Accept Can Stock Photo Inc. / Basketman23
27 PLAN RISK RESPONSE: OPPORTUNITIES Strategies for opportunities Exploit Enhance Share Accept Can Stock Photo Inc. / focalpoint
28 CONTROL RISKS Implementing risk response plans Monitoring risk triggers ID new risks Re-evaluating existing risks
29 THE END IS NEAR ---I PROMISE PMI-RMP Worth it? Do it again?
30 SOURCES Heldman, K. (2005). Project Manager s Spotlight on Risk Management. Sybex Pritchard, C. (2010). Risk Management Concepts and Guidance. Arlington: ESI International Project Management Institute. (2009). Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Newton Square: Project Management Institute Project Management Institute. (2012). PMI Lexicon of Project Management Terms. Newton Square: Project Management Institute
31 RISK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE PMBOK 5 th Edition page 317
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