The Italian Asset Management market

Transcription

1 key figures 23 December 2013

2 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

3 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

4 The Italian AM market (Jan 2013:Nov 2013) +6.2% 1,334 Mand III M10+M Perf % II 1,195 MSCI World I +26.9% 45% Mand. FTSE Mib +16.9% Funds EMTX Italy 3 5Y % Dec 2012 Nov 2013 AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 4

5 Net flows are rebounding bn YTD Open-end f.ds: +46 Italian & RT funds: bn Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Monthly data. Source: Assogestioni. 5

6 Product breakdown III +5.9 M II IV I II III IV 2013 I Open end Funds % 4% 43 3% 0.1 M10+11 Closed end Funds Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) III +0.4 M % % 5.3 Institutional Mandates M IV 2013 I Net Flows Asset growth rate II IV I +0.3 II III 6

7 Long term trend bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 7

8 GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS AM HOLDING MEDIOLANUM POSTE ITALIANE ALLIANZ UBI BANCA FRANKLIN TEMPLETON BNP PARIBAS AMUNDI AXA BANCO POPOLARE AZIMUT ARCA bn 2% 3% 4% 8% % 73% 82% 14% Funds AuM (Nov 2013) Top 15 Groups 27% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Mand. x%: Mkt share + Net flows :2013 M % 5% 10% 15% % Net sales as % AuM 8

9 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Dec % 36% % Dec :2013 M11 Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign I 2013 II 2013 III M10+11 Nov % 30% 42% AuM & net flows, bn. 9

10 Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) AuM (Nov 2013) Net flows :2013 M % 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS GENERALI AM HOLDING FRANKLIN TEMPLETON MEDIOLANUM AZIMUT UBI BANCA ARCA JPMORGAN BNP PARIBAS AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE PICTET SCHRODERS bn 2% 4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 11% 70% 80% 15% 5% 52% Domestic Q3 Q3 +38% +46% R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + +32% Net sales as % AuM 10

11 Asset Class breakdown TOTAL 22% 5% 6% 48% 18% DOMESTIC 12% 7% 51% 24% 162 bn 32% R TRIP/OFFSHORE 20% 7% 46% 21% 206 bn 41% FOREIGN 35% 4% 49% 139 bn 27% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge Sep

12 AuM (Sep 2013) Equity & balanced funds Net flows :2013 Q % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ITALY EURO AREA 4% 5% EUROPE 20% AMERICA 17% PACIFIC AREA 8% EMERGING MKTS 15% SPECIAL. COUNTRY 6% GLOBAL 14% SPECIAL. SECTOR OTHER 3% 8% +63% BALANCED bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 12

13 MM FUNDS Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Sep 2013) Net flows :2013 Q % 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 12% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 12% EURO CORPORATE / HY 11% DOLLAR AREA 2% GLOBAL EM MIXED 6% 6% 9% +49% +51% SPECIALIZED 17% FLEX (BOND) 23% FLEX +32% HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 13

14 Net & gross flows Net ( bn) Gross ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 50% 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 14

15 Gross flows: captive vs. non-captive ManCo Captive Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Non captive Gross Sales Gross Redemptions 15

16 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all MMF / Short Term Tot. / Abs. Return Target / Coupon Target / Tot. / Abs. Return MMF/ ST Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon Tot. / Abs. Return Coupon Tot/Abs Target / Target / Corporate Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate MMF / Short Term ML Bond Return Coupon Coupon Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 16

17 New stories: they sell well... but how long? Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Curr. +1Q +2Q +3Q Newly launched funds ( new stories ): net flows in current & following 3 quarters. bn. 17

18 New stories tag cloud Year New funds CORPORATE 20 EQUITY SELECTION EMERGING CASH MONEY PROTETTO LIQUID ETF CONVERTIBLE ASIA PROTETTO ETF MONEY ASIA CORPORATE BREVE STRUCTURED COUPON MONET CONVERTIBLE SELECTION LIQUID SELECTION FORMULA EQUITY INDEX 20 ETF MONEY CASH MONET COUPON ASIA CONVERTIBLE FORMULA INDEX BOND CEDOLA ETF LIQUID PROTETTO MONET COUPON SELECTION BREVE STRUCTURED MONET INDEX FORMULA COUPON BOND CASH FORMULA BOND 20 CEDOLA INDEX EQUITY EMERGING EMERGING CONVERTIBLE LIQUID BOND CORPORATE BREVE PROTETTO STRUCTURED CEDOLA ASIA STRUCTURED CASH EMERGING EQUITY MONEY BREVE CORPORATE 20 CEDOLA 18

19 DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) 3% Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Sep 2013) Net flows :2013 Q % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 10% PENSION PLANS 9% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) % INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 9% OTHER 10% bn Foreign Co. Domestic Co. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 19

20 Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (Nov 2013) Net flows :2013 M % 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% GENERALI % EURIZON CAPITAL % BANCA FIDEURAM 3% PIONEER INVESTMENTS POSTE ITALIANE ALLIANZ AXA 3% 5% 6% 76% % MEDIOLANUM 2% BANCO POPOLARE AMUNDI UBI BANCA 87% AM HOLDING CREDIT SUISSE BNP PARIBAS 1% % CREDITO EMILIANO STATE STREET 93% 29% bn Retail Instit. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 20

21 The market for Institutional Mandates Insurance products Managed by ManCos Pension funds As is... (2013 Q3) % 39% 156 As is... (2013 Q3)... and as could become: Household portfolio: share of insurance products & pension funds (2013Q2) IT FRA GER UK USA 17.8% 34.5% 34.9% 55.4% 32.2% Source: ANIA, Covip, Adepp, Assogestioni, Eurostat, OECD. 21

22 Despite the economic crisis which is still affecting heavely our country, and despite the fall in the household saving rate, net flows into funds and mandates are rebounding. Why? Some tentative explanations that can be drawn looking at the general features of the market (1), savers (2 & 3), distributors (banks, 4 & 5) and management companies (6).

23 1. A pro-cyclical market bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni, MSCI. 23

24 2. Wealth is concentrated top tier investors hold most of the money pot (italian funds) Average investment Median investment Average Median x 2.5 Quartile % of assets Limit ( ) 25% of shareholders control 75% of assets 75% of shareholders invest less than 25k Italian funds. Source: Assogestioni 24

25 3. Bank deposits pay low interests Oct 2013 Interest rates on bank deposits, households. Source: Bank of Italy. 25

26 4. Banks are becoming less dependent on funding from retail Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Retail Bank Bonds Domestic and Round Trip Funds Foreign Funds Quarterly flows, bn. Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy. 26

27 5. Narrowing interest margins... Commercial bank gross margins (Difference between interested paid out on deposits and paid in on bank loans) Source: ABI/Bank of Italy. 27

28 ... are pushing banks to increase commission-based margins Main balance sheet indicators (YoY% change) Assets & Liabilities Loans Deposits Profitability Revenues of which: interest margin net commissions Costs Results and forecasts for Italian listed banking groups. Source: Bank of Italy. 28

29 MM FUNDS Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Sep 2013) Net flows :2013 Q % 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 12% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 12% EURO CORPORATE / HY 11% DOLLAR AREA 2% GLOBAL EM MIXED 6% 6% 9% +49% +51% SPECIALIZED 17% FLEX (BOND) 23% FLEX +32% HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 29

30 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

31 Net Assets by fund domicile +9% 2, % 9,636 +8% +13% 1,527 +1% +9% 1,388 +8% +13% 1, % +20% 1,331 +8% +16% Ucits Non Ucits 71% : 13M10 Growth 12 rate 31% MMFs % +9% +9% 95% Spezialf % France 16% Germany 14% UK 11% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 27% Ireland 14% Europe 100% 47% 41% 2013 October bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 31

32 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg UK France Germany 100 Italy Q3 Index values. Source: Efama. 32

33 Net sales by fund domicile Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I II IV 5% III 10% I II 26% IV III I III II % % UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% II III I IIIII IV I III I II IV % +8% % % 5% Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 33

34 Net sales by fund domicile & asset class Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% III 2013 III IV I II 2012 II III IV III 2011 I 1% 1% 8% % 12% % 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 6% France Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% +1% 7% UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV I III IV III III II I II III 1% 3% 4% 3% % 2% 2008 '09 '10 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% Equity+Balanced +Flexible Bonds+MM Others+Non Ucits Net sales as a % of AuM. Source: Efama, Assogestioni, BVI. 34

35 Net Assets by fund group domicile 2,539 58% 9,531 1,710 +1% +9% 1,791 +5% +12% Exp 10% 1, % +20% Exp > 90% % +10% % +2% 1,318 39% Domestic Funds Ucits Domestic Funds Non Ucits Luxembourg Funds Irish Funds : 13Q3 Growth rate 12 France 12% Germany 24% UK 43% Switzerland 51% Italy 48% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2013Q3. bn. Foreign share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 35

36 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I II IV III I III II I 10% III II 26% 22% % +7% UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I III IV IV III III II III II I +10% +13% % +9% 5% Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 36

37 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

38 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q2 0% EU Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 38

39 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 16% 14% 12% 15.2% Italy 12.2% -0.5% 10% -1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 8% '13 Q2 income 2008Q4:2013Q2. Source: Eurostat. 39

40 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% consumption 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 17.4% Germany 15.3% France 16.3% 15.3% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% '13 Q2 income 2008Q4:2013Q2. Source: Eurostat. 40

41 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 8% 6% UK 8.2% 5.6% -0.5% 4% 2.2% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2% '13 Q2 income 2008Q4:2013Q2. Source: Eurostat. 41

42 Household financial portfolio breakdown Italy Total Asset bn Currency & deposits Total Bonds Issued by banks Total Stocks Listed Investment funds Pension funds & life pr , , , , , , Q2 3, France 4, n.a Germany 5, n.a. 9.3 n.a UK 5, n.a USA 47, n.a n.a High level of direct investment (~ 40%) Significant amounts of bank issued bonds (10%) Negligible level of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (18%) then fall (hump shaped) Pensions/life product: up but still too modest. %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 42

43 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% abnormally high? 60% 50% 40% 30% 6% too low? 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% Q Q2 0% Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 43

44 Public Pensions (1st pillar) Cost (% GDP) Future substitution rates Age: 68 (70) + 38 (40)y of contrib. 80% 1 Private % sector employee 4 Today 60% Self employed 1 ante L 243/ ante DL 78/ % 3 ante DL 98/ ante DL 201/ % Source: Ragioneria Generale dello Stato. 44

45 Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar) (,000) 2008 Member breakdown 5,829 22,899 25% 21% Private sector employees 4,161 13,931 30% 26% Public sector employees 155 3,283 5% 4% Self employed 1,513 5,685 27% 19% (,000) % '12 % 4y % ( m) % GDP Vehicle breakdown 5, % +5% +15% 104, % 2012 Working pop. (est.) Membership rate 2012 Members Assets Contractual p.f. 1,970 34% 1% 3% 30,174 Open p.f % +4% +11% 10,078 Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 2,312 39% +14% +49% 16,086 Ante 1993 p.f. ('pre existing') % 1% 2% 48,010 Membership rate Source: Covip, Istat, RGS. 45

46 Private sector employees: failure of automatic enrolment 13.7m 13.9m 312K 301K Not Enrolled Opt-Out 12.4m 1.2m 292K 17% 226K 16% 266K 7% 7% 4% 70% 30% 84% 15% 6% Enrolled 2.2m 4.2m Dec Dec 2012 New members: Automatic Enrolment Voluntary Enrolment Source: est. based on Covip data. 46

47 key figures 23 December 2013