The Italian Asset Management market
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1 key figures Research Department
2 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
3 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
4 The Italian AM market (Jan 2015: Dec 2016) Mand. 1, I II III IV E E +2.6% Perf. 1,937 51% % Funds 898 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 4
5 Net flows (monthly data) bn Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly data. Source: Assogestioni. 5
6 Product breakdown IV E II III 2016 I Open end Funds Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) I 0.7 IV E 125 6% 4% % 3% % IIII II +2.4 II III +2.7 III IV E Closed end Funds Institutional Mandates +1.1 IV E 0.4 II III 2016 I 6
7 Long term trend bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 7
8 AuM (Dec 2016) Top 15 Groups Net flows 2016 E % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS POSTE ITALIANE ANIMA HOLDING BLACKROCK UBI BANCA ALLIANZ AMUNDI MEDIOLANUM AZIMUT BNP PARIBAS AXA BANCO POPOLARE ARCA bn 2% 3% 4% 5% 285 8% % 59% 72% 81% Funds 15% n.a. 12% Mand. x%: Mkt share % n.a Net sales as % AuM 8
9 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Dec Dec Dec % 27% 26% 43% 31% :M12 Domestic +5.3 R trip/offshore Foreign % I 2016 II 2016 III 2016 IV E AuM & net flows, bn. 9
10 Long term trend: open-end funds bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 10
11 Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) AuM (Dec 2016) Net flows 2016 E % 5% 10% 15% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% EURIZON CAPITAL FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS GENERALI BLACKROCK ANIMA HOLDING MEDIOLANUM AZIMUT UBI BANCA JPMORGAN AM ARCA AMUNDI PICTET INVESCO DEUTSCHE BANK FIDELITY bn 2% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 10% % 50% 68% 79% Domestic n.a. n.a. Q % +21.0% R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + n.a. n.a Net sales as % AuM 11
12 Asset Class breakdown TOTAL 20% 8% 4% 43% 24% DOMESTIC 8% 2% 40% 42% 239 bn 28% R TRIP/OFFSHORE 17% 5% 47% 24% 337 bn 39% FOREIGN 33% 8% 42% 11% 289 bn 33% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge September
13 AuM (Sep 2016) Equity & balanced funds Net flows 2016 III % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% ITALY 5% EURO AREA 6% EUROPE 26% 2.3 AMERICA 17% PACIFIC AREA 6% EMERGING MKTS 11% SPECIAL. COUNTRY GLOBAL 6% 5% SPECIAL. SECTOR 12% OTHER 6% BALANCED bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 13
14 MM FUNDS Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Sep 2016) Net flows 2016 III % 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% +23% ITALY 1% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 7% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 10% EURO CORPORATE / HY 10% DOLLAR AREA 2% GLOBAL EM 7% 6% 21% MIXED 21% SPECIALIZED 18% FLEX (BOND) 18% FLEX % HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 14
15 Net & gross flows Net ( bn) Gross ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 50% 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 15
16 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all Tot. / Abs. Tot. / Abs. Return Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon Tot. / Abs. Return MMF/ ST Tot/Abs Return Target / Coupon Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Corporate MMF / Short Term ML Bond MMF/ ST ML Bond Tot/Abs Return ML Bond Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 16
17 New stories tag cloud Year New funds
18 Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Sep 2016) Net flows 2016 III % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) 3% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 10% PENSION PLANS 8% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) % INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 8% +10.7% OTHER bn 8% Foreign Co. Domestic Co. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 18
19 Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (Dec 2016) Net flows 2016 E % 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% GENERALI % EURIZON % FIDEURAM 5% POSTE ITALIANE 7% PIONEER INVESTMENTS 6% ALLIANZ AXA 3% 4% 77% UBI BANCA 2% AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE ANIMA HOLDING 1% 88% CREDITO EMILIANO BNP PARIBAS BLACKROCK n.a. n.a. BANCA ESPERIA CREDIT SUISSE 93% 31% bn Retail Instit. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 19
20 Insurance Mandates & Captive/Affiliated Insurers GENERALI INVESTMENTS GENERALI ASSICURAZIONI (Gr.) Italian Market: 30% EURIZON CAPITAL / FIDEURAM INTESA SANPAOLO VITA (Gr.) POSTE ITALIANE POSTE VITA PIONEER INVESTMENTS UCB (JV AVIVA / ALLIANZ / CNP) ALLIANZ ALLIANZ ASS. (Gr.) AXA AXA ASS. (Gr.) AMUNDI CREDIT AGRICOLE VITA BANCO POPOLARE BP (JV AVIPOP / POPOLARE VITA) Italian insurance market (Sep 2016) % UBI BANCA UBI BANCA (JV AVIVA / LOMBARDA VITA) BNP PARIBAS BNPP CARDIF VITA bn Mandates Technical Res. bn, December Source: Assogestioni, balance sheets. 20
21 Life Insurance Market: long-term trend Dec Max Unit&Index l. Sep % Funds 24% Bond 69% Dec bn, yearly data. Source: Ania, Ivass. 21
22 Top 10 Life Insurance Groups Technical Reserves (Dec 2015) Flows GENERALI Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza Ass./BG Vita INTESA SANPAOLO Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita POSTE ITALIANE ALLIANZ UNIPOLSAI MEDIOLANUM Allianz/Creditras Vita Unipolsai/Popolare Vita/Bim Vita/Arca Vita 55% 71% AVIVA AXA BNP PARIBAS CATTOLICA 86% bn Class III (unit/index) x%: Mkt share Class I & Other + Net flows Premiums 22
23 Top 10 Unit&Index Linked Groups Technical Reserves (Dec 2015) Flows INTESA SANPAOLO Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita ALLIANZ MEDIOLANUM GENERALI POSTE ITALIANE OLD MUTUAL Allianz/Creditras Vita Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza/BG Vita 54% 71% AVIVA CNP ASSURANCES UNIPOLSAI AXA 91% bn x%: Mkt share + Net flows Premiums 23
24 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
25 A pro-cyclical market MSCI WORLD (Loc) bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni, MSCI. 25
26 ... in search for yield BTP Yield (Rendistato) Dec % Yield. Source: Bank of Italy. 26
27 AM Market, GDP & Bank credit Net Sales (r.) Corporate Loans GDP (l.,index) Italy Germany France UK bn 90 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy, Eurostat. 27
28 Households: less bonds, more funds (flow view) bn Q3 Currency&Deposits Italian Gov.Bonds Bank Bonds Investment Funds Pension Funds&Life Products bn. Source: Bank of Italy. 28
29 Households: less bonds, more funds (stock view) Total Asset Currency & deposits Bonds Issued by Total banks Total Stocks Listed Investm ent funds Pension funds & life pr Italy bn % % % % % % % , % 22.6% 1.9% 19.3% 2.8% 5.8% 8.7% , % 16.6% 6.4% 29.5% 5.4% 17.0% 10.0% , % 19.0% 7.1% 28.2% 2.4% 11.0% 14.2% , % 19.9% 10.2% 19.9% 2.0% 7.8% 17.4% , % 19.5% 9.9% 19.6% 1.5% 7.7% 17.6% , % 10.7% 4.5% 23.3% 1.6% 11.1% 20.0% 2016 Q2 4, % 10.4% 4.1% 20.5% 1.3% 11.5% 21.3% 2016 Q2 France 4, % 1.4% n.a. 20.5% 4.1% 6.7% 34.4% Germany 5, % 3.0% n.a. 9.9% 4.7% 9.9% 31.3% UK 8, % 1.6% n.a. 7.8% 2.7% 3.6% 60.5% USA 65, % 5.9% n.a. 35.3% n.a. 10.6% 32.7% %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 29
30 The uptick of the saving rate is good news for the industry 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q3 0% EU avg Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 30
31 Banks: no more dependent on funding from retail investors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Retail Bank Bonds Domestic and Round Trip Funds Foreign Funds Q3 Quarterly flows, bn. Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy. 31
32 ... and urged to sustain profitability through non interest-based sources of revenues Q Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 5.5 Funds flows, captive Man.Cos (l.) Net interest margin (r.) bn. Source: Assogestioni, bank balance sheets (Top 5 groups). 32
33 The success of funds with high margins (target-date funds) MM FUNDS 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% +23% ITALY 1% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 7% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 10% EURO CORPORATE / HY 10% DOLLAR AREA 2% GLOBAL EM 7% 6% 21% MIXED 21% SPECIALIZED 18% FLEX (BOND) 18% FLEX % HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 33
34 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
35 Net Assets by fund domicile 3,622 +3% +13% 13,702 +3% +17% 1,839 +6% +9% 1,729 +3% +6% 1,416 5% +13% 1,944 +2% +14% 61% Ucits AIF 16Q3 15 Growth rate 90% Spezialf % +21% % +13% Germany 13% France 13% UK 10% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 26% Ireland 14% Europe 100% 44% 40% 2016Q3 bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 35
36 Net sales by fund domicile Italy France Germany 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 14% III II I IV III II I IV III II I % % UK 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Luxembourg 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% II I I III IV III II IV III II I Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 36
37 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg UK France Germany 100 Italy Q3 Index values. Source: Efama. 37
38 Net Assets by fund group domicile 3,462 +3% +13% 13,290 +3% +17% 2,375 +5% +10% Exp 10% 1,982 +3% +8% 2,562 +0% +13% Exp > 90% 60% 1,917 +2% +14% 61% Domestic Funds Ucits Domestic Funds AIF 1,008 +4% +7% % +15% 39% Luxembourg Funds Irish Funds 16 Q3 Growth rate 15 Germany 24% France 15% UK 47% Switzerland 48% Italy 51% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2016Q3. bn. Foreign (Round-trip) share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 38
39 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile Italy 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% France 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Germany 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 14% 9% III II IV III II IV I III II I I % % UK 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Luxembourg 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% I II I II III IV II III I III IV Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 39
40 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
41 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q3 0% EU avg Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 41
42 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% 16% 14% 15.3% consumption 0.5% 0.0% Italy 12% 10% 10.9% -0.5% 8% -1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Q3 income 2008Q4:2016Q3. Source: Eurostat. 42
43 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 18% 17.1% 1.0% 16% 14% Germany 17.1% 0.5% 12% 10% 0.0% -0.5% 18% France 16% 14% 14.7% 12% 14.3% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 10% Q3 income 2008Q4:2016Q3. Source: Eurostat. 43
44 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% 12% 11.1% 10% UK consumption 0.5% 0.0% 8% -0.5% 6% 5.4% 6.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% income 4% Q3 2008Q4:2016Q3 Source: Eurostat. 44
45 Household financial portfolio breakdown Total Issued by banks Total Listed Italy bn % % % % % % % , % 22.6% 1.9% 19.3% 2.8% 5.8% 8.7% , % 16.6% 6.4% 29.5% 5.4% 17.0% 10.0% , % 19.0% 7.1% 28.2% 2.4% 11.0% 14.2% , % 19.9% 10.2% 19.9% 2.0% 7.8% 17.4% , % 19.5% 9.9% 19.6% 1.5% 7.7% 17.6% , % 10.7% 4.5% 23.3% 1.6% 11.1% 20.0% 2016 Q2 4, % 10.4% 4.1% 20.5% 1.3% 11.5% 21.3% 2016 Q2 Total Asset Currency & deposits Bonds Stocks Investment funds Pension funds & life pr France 4, % 1.4% n.a. 20.5% 4.1% 6.7% 34.4% Germany 5, % 3.0% n.a. 9.9% 4.7% 9.9% 31.3% UK 8, % 1.6% n.a. 7.8% 2.7% 3.6% 60.5% USA 65, % 5.9% n.a. 35.3% n.a. 10.6% 32.7% %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. High level of direct investment (~ 35%) Decreasing amounts of bank issued bonds (5.0%) Negligible level of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (18%) then down, then again up. Pensions/life product: up but still too modest. 45
46 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% 18% 16% 14% abnormally high? 70% 60% 50% 12% 10% 8% 40% 30% 6% 4% 2% 0% too low? Q Q2 20% 10% 0% Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 46
47 Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar) (,000) 2008 Member breakdown 7,227 22, % 21.0% Private sector employees 5,174 13, % 26.0% Public sector employees 174 3, % 4.0% Self employed 1,879 5, % 19.0% (,000) % '15 % 7y % ( m) % GDP Vehicle breakdown 7, % +11% +49% 140, % 2015 Working pop. (est.) Membership rate Contractual p.f. 2,419 33% +24% +18% 42,546 Open p.f. 1,150 16% +9% +45% 15,430 Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 3,028 42% +4% +120% 26,835 Ante 1993 p.f. ('pre existing') 645 9% 0% 5% 55,299 Membership rate 2015 Members Assets Source: Covip, Istat, RGS. 47
48 key figures Research Department
The Italian Asset Management market
key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets
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key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets
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