The Italian Asset Management market

Transcription

1 key figures Presentation to the Board of Directors 18 June 2013 Alessandro Rota

2 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

3 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

4 The Italian AM market (Jan 2012:Apr 2013) Mand. Generali (+186) % +8.8% Mand Funds 6.1 H1 8.4 H2 Perf. 1, I M % EMTX Italy 3 5Y +17.2% +3.3% 3% MSCI World+16.4% FTSE Mib+7.8% +3.0% +1.3% Perf. 56% % 1, % 45% 560 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Apr 2013 AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 4

5 Product breakdown IV 2013 I M III II III Open end Funds I IV % 4% 43 3% 2012 II Closed end Funds Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) 8% % Institutional Mandates II Net Flows Asset growth rate 0.9 III IV 2013 I +0.2 M II III 5.3 IV 2013 I +1.3 M4 5

6 AuM (Apr 2013) Top 15 Groups Net flows 2013:M % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS MEDIOLANUM AMHOLDING ALLIANZ POSTE ITALIANE UBI BANCA FRANKLIN TEMPLETON BNP PARIBAS AXA AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE AZIMUT ARCA bn % 14% 4% 8% 4% 3% 61% +110% % 2% 74% 83% Funds Mand. x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 6

7 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Apr Dec Dec % % 43% 30% 36% 48% :M4 Domestic +3.9 R trip/offshore +5.9 Foreign I 2013 M4 2 0 AuM & net flows, bn. 7

8 Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) AuM (Apr 2013) Net flows 2013:M % 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% EURIZON CAPITAL 15% BANCA FIDEURAM 7% PIONEER INVESTMENTS 11% GENERALI 8% AM HOLDING 6% FRANKLIN TEMPLETON 53% MEDIOLANUM 5% UBI BANCA 4% AZIMUT 3% ARCA BNP PARIBAS 71% JPMORGAN 2% AMUNDI PICTET Q1 SCHRODERS Q1 BANCO POPOLARE 81% +32% bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 8

9 Asset Class breakdown TOTAL 22% 4% 6% 50% 16% DOMESTIC 13% 7% 51% 20% 153 bn 32% R TRIP/OFFSHORE 20% 7% 48% 19% 198 bn 41% FOREIGN 35% 4% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 131 bn 27% Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge Mar

10 AuM (Mar 2013) Equity & balanced funds Net flows 2013Q % 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ITALY EURO AREA 4% 4% EUROPE AMERICA 17% 18% PACIFIC AREA 9% EMERGING MKTS 18% SPECIAL. COUNTRY 6% GLOBAL 13% SPECIAL. SECTOR 8% OTHER 2% BALANCED bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 10

11 Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Mar 2013) Net flows 2013Q % 3% 6% 9% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% MM FUNDS ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. EURO GOV. M/L TERM EURO CORPORATE / HY 13% 12% 11% DOLLAR AREA 2% GLOBAL EM MIXED 7% 7% 7% +51% SPECIALIZED 15% FLEX (BOND) 23% FLEX HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 11

12 Net & gross flows Net Gross ( bn) ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q % 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 12

13 Gross flows: captive vs. non-captive ManCo Captive Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Non captive Gross Sales Gross Redemptions 13

14 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all MMF / Short Term Tot. / Abs. Return Target / Coupon 40 Target / Tot. / Abs. Return MMF/ ST Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon Coupon Tot/Abs Target / Corporate Target / Return Coupon Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate Coupon Tot. / Abs. Return MMF / Short Term Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 14

15 New stories: they sell well... but how long? Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Curr. +1Q +2Q +3Q Newly launched funds ( new stories ): net flows in current & following 3 quarters. bn. 15

16 New stories tag cloud Year New funds BREVE LIQUID STRUCTURED PROTETTO LIQUID CASH MONEY EMERGING ETF PROTETTO CONVERTIBLE BREVE PROTETTO CEDOLA FORMULA COUPON CEDOLA 20 FORMULA MONEY EMERGING MONET INDEX CEDOLA INDEX ETF BOND 20 COUPON ASIA CEDOLA ASIA ETF MONEY BOND STRUCTURED FORMULA EQUITY 20 CONVERTIBLE ASIA MONET EMERGING EQUITY MONET ASIA CONVERTIBLE EQUITY CORPORATE CASH 20 FORMULA COUPON COUPON EQUITY CONVERTIBLE BREVE BOND MONET CORPORATE LIQUID EMERGING SELECTION BOND SELECTION SELECTION CASH CASH PROTETTO STRUCTURED LIQUID ETF MONEY BREVE CORPORATE INDEX STRUCTURED SELECTION INDEX CORPORATE 16

17 Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Mar 2013) Net flows 2013Q % 2% 4% 6% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) 3% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 11% PENSION PLANS 8% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) % INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 9% OTHER 9% bn Foreign Co. Domestic Co. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 17

18 Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (Apr 2013) Net flows 2013:M % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% GENERALI % EURIZON CAPITAL % BANCA FIDEURAM 3% PIONEER INVESTMENTS POSTE ITALIANE ALLIANZ AXA 3% 5% 6% 77% % MEDIOLANUM 2% BANCO POPOLARE UBI BANCA AMUNDI 88% AM HOLDING CREDIT SUISSE BNP PARIBAS 1% % CREDITO EMILIANO MONTEPASCHI 94% bn Retail Instit. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 18

19 The market for Institutional Mandates Insurance products Managed by ManCos Pension funds As is... (2013 Q1) % 33% 145 As is... (2012 Q4)... and as could become: Household portfolio: share of insurance products & pension funds (2012Q4) IT FRA GER UK USA 17.6% 34.8% 34.5% 52.6% 28.1% Source: ANIA, Covip, Assogestioni, Eurostat, OECD. 19

20 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

21 Net Assets by fund domicile +6% 2, % +5% , % 1,524 +1% +9% 1,325 +3% +13% 1,025 +6% +20% 1,304 +6% +16% 71% Ucits Non Ucits 13E 12Growth rate 33% MMFs 95% Spezialf % +9% % 1% France 16% Germany 14% UK 11% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 27% Ireland 14% Europe 100% 47% 41% 2013 Q1. bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 21

22 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg UK France Germany 100 Italy Q1 Index values. Source: Efama. 22

23 Net sales by fund domicile Italy France Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV 5% 10% I 26% I II III II IV III I % +8% UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% II III I IV I III I II IV % % % % 5% Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 23

24 Italy Net sales by fund domicile & asset class France Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% III IV I IV III III 2011 II I 1% 1% 8% % 12% % +1% 7% UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV I III II IV III III II I 1% 3% 4% 3% % '10 2% ' % 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% Equity+Balanced Bonds+MM Others+Non Ucits Net sales as a % of AuM. Source: Efama, Assogestioni, BVI. 24

25 Net Assets by fund group domicile 2,529 58% 9,393 +2% +3% +7% +12% 1, % 1,723 +9% 1,756 Domestic Funds Ucits Exp 10% Exp > 90% % +10% % +2% 1,304 39% Domestic Funds Non Ucits Luxembourg Funds Irish Funds 13E 12 Growth rate France 12% Germany 25% UK 43% Switzerland 52% Italy 48% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2013Q1. bn. Foreign share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 25

26 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I II IV III I III II I 10% 26% 22% % +7% UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I III IV IV III III II 2013 I % +13% % % 5% Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 26

27 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

28 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q4 0% AVG EU Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 28

29 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 10% 1.0% ption 0.5% 16% 15.2% consum 0.0% 14% 12% Italy 11.4% -0.5% 10% -1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 8% income 2008Q4:2012Q4. Source: Eurostat. 29

30 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% consum mption 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 18.0% 16.0% 17.4% Germany 16.5% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 18.0% 16.0% 15.3% 15.5% 5% 14.0% France 12.0% 10.0% 0% income 2008Q4:2012Q4. Source: Eurostat. 30

31 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consum mption 0.5% 0.0% 8.0% 6.0% UK 7.6% 7.1% -0.5% 4.0% 2.2% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 20% 2.0% income 2008Q4:2012Q4. Source: Eurostat. 31

32 Household financial portfolio breakdown Bonds Stocks Total Asset Currency & Issued bn deposits Total Total Listed by banks Italy Pension Investment funds & funds life pr , , , , , , France 4, High level of direct investment (~ 40%) Significant amounts of bank issued bonds (10%) Negligible ibl levell of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (18%) then fall (hump shaped) Germany 4, n.a Pensions/life UK 5, product: up but still USA 41, n.a too modest. %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 32

33 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% abnormally high? 60% 18% 16% 50% 14% 40% 12% 10% 30% 8% 6% too low? 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% % Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 33

34 Public Pensions (1st pillar) Cost (% GDP) Future substitution rates Age: 68 (70) + 38 (40)y of contrib. 80% 1 Private % sector employee 4 Today 60% Self employed 1 ante L 243/ ante DL 78/ % 3 ante DL 98/ ante DL 201/ % Source: Ragioneria Generale dello Stato. 34

35 Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar) (,000) 2012 Working pop. (est.) Membership rate 2008 Membership rate Member breakdown 5,829 22,899 25% 21% Private sector employees 4,161 13,931 30% 26% Public sector employees 155 3,283 5% 4% Self employed 1,513 5,685 27% 19% 2012 Members Assets (,000) % '12 % 4y % ( m) % GDP Vehicle breakdown 5, % +5% +15% 104, % Contractual p.f. 1,970 34% 1% 3% 30,174 Open p.f % +4% +11% 10,078 Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 2,312 39% +14% +49% 16,086 Ante 1993 p.f. ('pre existing') existing') % 1% 2% 48,010 Source: Covip, Istat, RGS. 35

36 Private sector employees: failure of automatic enrolment 13.7m 13.8m 312K 301K Not Enrolled Opt-Out 12.4m 1.2m 292K 17% 226K 16% 266K 7% 7% 4% 70% 30% 84% 15% 6% Enrolled 2.2m 4.2m Dec Dec 2012 New members: Automatic Enrolment Voluntary Enrolment Source: est. based on Covip data. 36

37 key figures Presentation to the Board of Directors 18 June 2013 Alessandro Rota