508 Restructuring. Stabilizing and Modernizing the New Russia

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1 List of Tables Table A.l: GDP and Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Transition Countries 10 Table A.2: Foreign Direct Investment: Gravity Projections for Selected Transition Countries 10 Table A.3: Obstacles for Doing Business: Survey Results among Foreign Investors Worldwide 16 Table A.4: Macroeconomic Indicators, Russia Table B.l: Net Capital Flows to Emerging Markets 44 Table C.l : Inflation and Average Nominal Returns on Selected Financial Assets 60 Table C.2: Yield Situation of Moscow Banks, Panel Data Table C.3: Asset Structure of Russian Credit Institutes in Table C.4: Share of Credits to the Private Sector to GDP 76 Table C.5: Ratio of Broad Money (M2) to GDP 77 Table.E.l: GDP and Inflation in Russia 102 Table E.2: Budget Deficit 104 Table E.3: Central Bank Refinancing Rate 106 Table E.4: Current Account 108 Table E.5: Trade with Russia 111 Table E.6: Current Account 112 Table E.7: General Budget Deficit 113 Table E.8: Debt Indicators 114 TableF.l : Foreign Direct Investment in Eastern Europe, Table F.2: FDI-Stocks in Selected Eastern European Countries, Table F.3 : Estimates of a Gravity Model of FDI Stocks, Table FA: Projections of FDI in Russia, Table F.5 : Determinants of FDFFlows to Eastern Europe Cross Section Regression for 21 countries; Dependent Variable: Log of Average FDI Inflows Table F.6: Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation in GDP in Selected Emerging Economies, Table F.7: Contribution offdi to Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1995 to 2005 Averages 141 Table F.8: Stocks of German FDI in Hungary by Sector, Table G.l : Estimated Values for a 157 Table G.2: Price Growth in Times 159 Table G.3: Macro Economic Indicators 160 Table GA: The List of Sectors in the 10 Model: 163 Table G.5: Purchaser Price Index 164 Table G.6: Main Economic Indicators 172

2 508 Restructuring. Stabilizing and Modernizing the New Russia Table G.7: Industrial Output Dynamic 173 Table H.l: Traditional Indicators of Openness in Hungary and Russia 184 Table H.2: Share of Machinery in Hungarian and Russian Foreign Trade 184 Table H.3: Balance of Trade in Hungary and Russia 185 Table 1.1: Main Economic Indicators in Table 1.2: Russian Foreign Debt 203 Table 1.3: Russian Foreign Debt Service in Table J.l: Pro and Contra of Capital Controls 219 Table J.2: The Malaysian Experience 220 Table K.l: Quantity of Goods and Services within the Russian CPI 225 Table K.2: CPI in Russia 227 Table L.l: Table of Results 257 Table M.l: Russia: Consolidated Balance Sheet of Commercial Banks (Including Sberbank) at end June Table M.2: Russia: Consolidated Balance Sheet of Commercial Banks (Including Sberbank) at End April 1999 in Constant Ruble of June Table M.3: Russia: Regression Results of the Market for Loans January May 1999; Dependent Variable: Change of Real Lending to the Private Sector (27 Observations) 271 Table Q.l: Regional Distribution of FDI Inflows and Outflows, Table Q.2: Selected Indicators of the Importance ofinward FDI, by Country 376 Table Q.3: Regional Distribution of Inward and Outward FDI Stock 377 Table Q.4: Number of Parent Corporations and Foreign Affiliates, by Area and Economy, Latest Available Year 377 Table Q.5: Transition Indicators, Country Risk Rating and Levels offdi 381 Table Q.6: Real GDP in Central and Eastern European Countries 382 Table Q.7: Current Account Balances, Table Q.8: Russia's Balance of Payments in , US$ billion 384 Table Q.9: Total Volume and Structure of Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine in Table Q.I0: Real GDP Growth, Table Q.ll: Foreign Exchange Investment in the Branches of Russian Economy 396 Table Q.12: Ukraine's Merchandise Exports and Imports by Commodity Group and Regions 398 Table R.l Ownership and Structure of the Railway System in Various Countries (1) 413 Table R.2 Ownership and Structure of the Railway System in Various Countries (2) 427 Table R.3: Evolution of Major Economic and Railway Transport Indices 427

3 List a/tables 509 Table S.I : Short Term Debt as a Percentage of Foreign Exchange Reserves (Excluding Gold) in Selected Emerging Markets 449 Table S.2: Debt Service in Table S.3 : Personal Income Tax (Actually Collected and its Potential Collection) by Income Groups 459 Table SA: Actually Collected Personal Income Tax as a Percentage of its Potential Collection 459 Table V.I: Goals of Russian and Dutch Manufacturing Enterprises 478 Table V.2: Tax Arrears to the Consolidated Budget 480 Table W.I: Recession and Growth in Transition Economies, Table W.2: Russian Federation, Ukraine: Economic Indicators 491 Table X.I: Russian Federation: Basic Data 495

4 List of Figures Figure A.I: Requirements for Catching-up 17 Figure B.I : Real Exchange Rate in Russia 30 Figure B.2: Russia's Federal Budget Deficit to GDP 31 Figure B.3: The Stock of Federal Debt 32 Figure B.4: Russia's Current Account and Capital Account 33 Figure B.5: Currency Depreciation in Asian Countries and in Russia 37 Figure B.6: Raw Material Prices 39 Figure B.7: Banks Assets to GDP 42 Figure B.8: Maturity Structure of Rouble Debt in May Figure B.9: Equity Indexes in Developed and Emerging Markets During 18. Aug Aug Figure C.I: Number of Registered Banks in Russia 59 Figure C.2: Spread Between Interest Rates on Deposits and Loans in Eastern Europe, Figure C.3a: Federal Government Debt Certificates in the Russian Banking Sector in Figure C.3b: Outstanding Stock of Federal Bonds (GKO and OFZ), Figure C.4: Credit Rationing and Stable Macroeconomic Conditions 68 Figure C.5: Credit Rationing and Unstable Macroeconomic Conditions 70 Figure C.6: Claims of all Russian Banks on the Government Sector and the Enterprise Sector, Figure C.7: Factors Influencing the Allocative Efficiency of the Russian Banking System 79 Figure F.l: Measuring FDI in Russia: National and International Sources, Figure F.2: Comparison of Stocks of FDI in Russia and Cumulative Flows, Figure G.l : The Cycle of Computations in RIM in Brief 162 Figure G.2: Charts on Sector Labor and Capital Costs Analysis 165 Figure G.3: Export and Imports 174 Figure G.4: Retail Turnover 174 Figure G.5: Exchange Rate, Consumer and Producer Price Indexes 175 Figure H.l: Traditional Indicators of Openess in Hungary and Russia 178 Figure H.2: Share of Machinery in Hungarian and Russian Foreign Trade 179 Figure H.3 : Balance of Trade in Hungary and Russia 181 Figure H.4: Relationship with most Important International Organizations in Hungary and Russia 184 Figure 1.1 : Money Supply and Government Bonds in Circulation in Figure I.2: Real Money Supply in

5 512 Restructuring, Stabilizing and Modernizing the New Russia Figure 1.3 : Inflation and Changes in Exchange Rate 198 Figure 1.4: The Current Exchange Rate to "Calculated" Exchange Rate Ratio in Figure J.I : Allocation ofinternational Portfolio Capital 213 Figure K.1: Structure of Household Expenditures by Main Groups of Goods and Services 226 Figure K.2: CPI in Russia 228 Figure K.3: Russian CPI by Main Groups of Goods and Services 229 Figure K.4: Russian CPI from January 1996 to May Figure K.5: Russian CPI (Index Dec. 1997=100) 231 Figure K.6: Russian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) 232 Figure K.7 : Russian CPI and the Official US$ Exchange Rate 233 Figure K.8: Russian CPI and the Official US$ Exchange Rate 234 Figure K.9: Russian CPI and Subsistence Level (Changes to the Previous Month in Percent) 235 Figure K.10: Russian CPI and Subsistence Level (Index Number Dec. 1997= 100) 236 Figure L.I: Seigniorage 246 Figure N.I: Effects of High Transaction Costs and Risks 311 Figure N.2: Uncertainty and Output 312 Figure N.3: Network Effects of Privatization 314 Figure N.4: The Legal Framework in a Market Economy: Government and the Private Sector 315 Figure N.5: Role ofinstitutions in Market Economy 319 Figure N.6: Optimal Governance in a Two-Country Model of International Organization 324 Figure N.7: Privatization and Economic Policy 331 Figure Q.l: Foreign Direct Investment Inflow per Capita 375 Figure Q.2: Foreign Direct Investment Net Flow/GDP 376 Figure Q.3: Total Foreign Direct Investment in Russia and Ukraine 388 Figure Q.4: Share of Foreign Direct Investment to Gross Domestic Product 389 Figure Q.5: Export and Import in Russia 389 Figure Q.6: Export and Import in Ukraine 390 Figure Q.7: Average Annual Rates of Growth ofinward FDI and GDP, Figure R.1: Different Types of Transport in Russia's Public Transport System - Cargo Turnover 415 Figure R.2: Different Types of Transport in Russia's Public Transport System -Passenger Turnover 415 Figure R.3: Russian Railways' Payments to and Receipts from the Federal Budget 416

6 List of Figures 513 Figure R.4: Evolution of Major Economic and Railway-Operation Indices 418 Figure R.5a: Structure of Railways' Finance 419 Figure R.5b: Railway Finance Distribution 419 Figure R.6: Evolution of Wholesale Prices on Products Consumed by the Railway Transport and the Cargo Tariff Index 421 Figure R.7: Evolution of Major Indices in the Russian Economy and Railway Transport in Figure R.8 : A Railway Reform Chart Proposed by the PF MPS 428 Figure R.9: A Railway Reform Chart Proposed by Minfin Company 429 Figure R.lO: A Railway Reform Chart Proposed by the Commission for Economic Reform under the RF Government 430 Figure S.I: Gini Coefficient and CPI in Figure S.2: Labor Productivity and Real Wages in Figure S.3: Real Exchange Rate and Real Money Supply in Figure S.4: Current Account and Fiscal Deficit in Figure S.5: Real Interest Rates in Figure S.6: GDP and Lending Rate 452 Figure S.7: Current Account and Capital Flight in Figure S.8: Cumulative Capital Flight and the Stock of Tax Arrears Plus Non-Payments to Social Security Funds Since the First Quarter of Figure S.9: Capital Flight and Fiscal Deficit in Figure X.l: Growth in Real GDP 496 Figure X.2: Share of Exports and Imports to GDP 497

7 List of Contributors Dr. Frank Bohn Alfred-Weber-Institut (AWl), Heidelberg University and European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), Dr. Thomas Brockmeier Philipps-University Marburg Dr. Roland Dohm Rheinisch-Westfiilisches Institut fur W irtschaftsforschung Essen Cathleen Faber Prof. Dr. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Bureau of Economic Analysis and Higher School of Economics, Moscow Prof. Dr. Vladimir Gligorov The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Vienna Prof. Dr. Ruslan Grinberg Institute for International Economic and Political Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Dr. Tuomas Komulainen Bank of Finland - Institute for Economies in Transition Helsinki Dr. Zsuzsa Ludvig Institut for World Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences Budapest Prof. Dr. Olga Nosova State Polytechnic University Kharkov Dr. Nina Oding International Centre for Social and Economic Research "Leontief Centre" St. Petersburg Dr. Georgiy Serebryakov Institute for Economic Forecasting at Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Prof. Dr. Hans Gerhard Strohe Dr. Niclas Sundstrom Citibank London Prof. Dr. Pekka Sutela Bank of Finland - Institute for Economies in Transition Helsinki Dr. Ulrich Thie13en German Institute for Economic Research Berlin

8 516 Restructuring, Stabilizing and Modernizing the New RussIa Michael Vogelsang European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), Prof. Dr. Paul J.J. Welfens European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW) Ralf Wiegert, European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), Dr. A. Zaostrovzev Leontief Centre, St. Petersburg

9 Further Publications by Paull. 1. Welfens P. J. J. Welfens Market-oriented Systemic Transformations in Eastern Europe Problems, Theoretical Issues, and Policy Options XII, 261 pp. 20 figs., 29 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN M. W. Klein, P. J. J. Welfens Multinationals in the New Europe and Global Trade XV, 281 pp. 24 figs., 75 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN R. Tilly, P. J. J. Welfens European Economic Integration as a Challenge to Industry and Government Contemporary and Historical Perspectives on International Economic Dynamics X, 558 pp. 43 figs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens European Monetary Integration EMS Developments and International Post Maastricht Perspectives 3rd revised and enlarged edition XVIII, 384 pp. 14 figs., 26 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens European Monetary Union Transition, International Impact and Policy Options X, 467 pp. 50 figs., 31 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens, G. Yarrow Telecommunications and Energy in Systemic Transformation International Dynamics, Deregulation and Adjustment in Network Industries XII, 501 pp. 39 figs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens, H. C. Wolf Banking, International Capital Flows and Growth in Europe Financial Markets, Savings and Monetary Integration in a World with Uncertain Convergence XIV, 458 pp. 22 figs., 63 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens Economic Aspects of German Unification Expectations, Transition Dynamics and International Perspectives 2nd revised and enlarged edition XV, 527 pp. 34 figs., 110 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens, D. Audretsch, J. T. Addison and H. Grupp Technological Competition, Employment and Innovation Policies in OECD Countries VI, 231 pp. 16 figs., 20 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN J. T. Addison, P. J. J. Welfens Labor Markets and Social Security Wage Costs, Social Security Financing and Labor Market Reforms in Europe IX, 404 pp. 39 figs., 40 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens EU Eastern Enlargement and the Russian Transformation Crisis X, 151 pp. 12 figs., 25 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J.J. Welfens Globalization of the Economy, Unemployment and Innovation VI, 255 pp. II figs., 31 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens, G. Yarrow, R. Grinberg, C. Graack Towards Competition in Network Industries Telecommunications, Energy and Transportation in Europe and Russia XXII, 570 pp. 63 figs., 63 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P. J. J. Welfens, J. T. Addison, D. B. Audretsch, T. Gries, H. Grupp Globalization, Economic Growth and Innovation Dynamics X, 160 pp. 15 figs., 15 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN

10 R. Tilly, P.J.J. Welfens Economic Globalization, International Organizations and Crisis Management Contemporary and Historical Perspectives on Growth, Impact and Evolution of Major Organizations in an Interdependent World XII, 408 pp. 11 figs., 20 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN P.J.J. Welfens, E. Gavrilenkov Restructuring, Stabilizing and Modernizing the New Russia Economic and Institutional Issues XIV, 516 pp. 82 figs., 70 tabs., Hardcover, ISBN