Empirical Trade Analysis 1-1

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1 Empirical Trade Analysis?? 1-1

2 Dierk Herzer?? 1-2

3 Introduction This course examines empirical research methods on topics related to international trade and investment. We review the empirics of international trade and investment (FDI). The study of these issues has never been as important as it is now. In the early 21st century, nations are more closely linked through trade in goods and services and through investment in each other s economies than ever before. 1-3

4 Introduction The course emphasizes development of empirical skills by emulating successful published papers and by working directly with the data. The objective is to prepare students to undertake their own empirical research. Students will be actively involved with computer exercises in this course using the EViews econometrics program, available in the Economics Computer Lab. The data are downloadable as Excel-files from the website of the Chair of International and Regional Economics. 1-4

5 SEMINAR PAPER / PROJECT The project involves empirical analysis of a data set related to international trade or investment, resulting in a short paper. The project can a. replicate the results of a well-known paper b. assemble a new data set to investigate an outstanding question in a different context, or c. apply the data from the course web page to investigate a topic covered in this course. The paper should be no more than 3,500 words. It should be written in English, typed on A4 paper using Times New Roman 12 with 1.5 spacing and margins of 2.5 cm (or 1 inch). Full papers, in PDF format, should be sent before March 15, 2011 to herzer@uni-wuppertal.de. 1-5

6 Data World Development Indicators 1-6

7 Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S. National Income,

8 Exports and Imports as a Percentage of German GDP, Imports (% of GDP); Exports (% of GDP) 1-8

9 The Nature of Merchandise Trade The value world merchandise exports was $10.2 trillion in 2005, a figure that is dramatic when one realizes that the value of goods exported worldwide was less than $2 trillion in Throughout the past four decades, international trade volume has, on average, outgrown production. 1-9

10 Growth in Volume of World Goods Production and Trade 1-10

11 Openness of the World Economy,

12 Exports and Imports by Region,

13 Regional Structure of World Merchandise Exports,

14 1-14

15 Commodity Composition of World Exports 1-15

16 Germany s Main Trading Partners,

17 Germany s Main Trading Partners, 2009 Rank Import Export 1 The Netherlands France 2 China The Netherlands 3 France USA 4 USA UK 5 Italy Italy 1-17

18 Germany s Main Export Products,

19 World Trade in Services One sixth of total trade in goods and services. The service category now accounts for the largest share of income and employment in many industrial countries. Services account for 77 percent of GDP in France, 69 percent in Germany, 77 percent in the US, 73 percent in the UK, and 68 percent in Japan. Services generally include the following categories in the International Industrial Classification (ISIC) system: wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels, transport, storage, communications, financial services, insurance, real estate, business services, personal services, community services, social services, and government services. International trade in services broadly consist of commercial services, investment income, and government services. 1-19

20 1-20

21 The Changing Degree of Economic Interdependence Increases in the export/gdp ratio indicate a greater international interdependence. While increased interdependence has many inherent benefits, it also brings with it greater adjustment requirements and greater needs for policy coordination among trading partners. 1-21

22 1-22

23 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS THROUGH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS Foreign portfolio investment Foreign direct investment (FDI) FDI refers to a movement of capital that involves ownership and control. World Bank defines FDI as net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. 1-23

24 Definitions FDI is usually discussed in the context of the multinational corporation (MNC) multinational enterprise (MNE) transnational corporation (TNC) transnational enterprise (TNE) Production is taking place in plants located in two or more countries but under the supervision and general direction of the headquarters located in one country. Foreign portfolio investment does not involve ownership or control but the flow of financial capital rather than real capital. 1-24

25 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations Between 1971 and 1985, real FDI grew at an average yearly rate of 2.6 percent, worldwide real GDP by 3.3 percent and world exports by 5.2 percent. In the period inflows of FDI grew much faster than either trade or GDP: Worldwide real GDP increased at a rate of about 3 percent per year Worldwide exports by about 6.4 percent, worldwide real inflows of FDI increased by approximately 18.5 percent. Since 2001, the rise of world FDI was reversed, and real world inflows were back to their 1998 level. Global FDI recovered in 2004 after a deep three-year slump. 1-25

26 Growth Rates of World GDP, Exports and FDI Inflows, EXPORTS GDP FDI 1-26

27 World FDI Inflows, Source: UNCTAD FDI database:

28 World GDP, Exports, and FDI Inflows, E E+1 3 3E E+1 3 2E E+1 3 1E+13 5E+12 0 FDI GDP Exports 1-28

29 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations The sales of foreign subsidiaries are in many instances much larger than trade flows. Sales of manufacturing products of US subsidiaries in the EU are approximately 3.8 times larger than EU imports from the US Sales of EU subsidiaries in the US are 3.6 times larger than EU exports to the US. A very large share of world trade is conducted by MNEs. Multinationals are responsible for 75 percent of the world s commodity trade. Around one-third of world trade is intra-firm, i.e. between subsidiaries based in different countries or between the subsidiaries and the headquarters of MNEs. 1-29

30 Outward FDI Flows as a Share of Total World FDI in 2007 Developed Economies Developing Economies South-East Europe and the CIS (Transition Economies) 1-30

31 The Ten Largest Suppliers of FDI, 2007 Outward FDI stocks (in millions of US dollars) Outward FDI stocks (as percentage of total world outward FDI stocks) 1 United States United Kingdom France Germany Hong Kong, China Netherlands Spain Belgium Switzerland Japan

32 FDI Inflows as a Share of Total World FDI inflows in 2007 Developed economies Developing economies South-East Europe and the CIS (Transition economies) 1-32

33 The Ten Largest FDI Recipients, 2007 Inward FDI stocks (in millions of US dollars) Inward FDI stocks (as percentage of total world outward FDI stocks) 1 United States United Kingdom Hong Kong, China France Belgium Netherlands Germany Spain Canada Italy

34 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may take place in one of two ways: as a greenfield investment, where a new plant is set up from scratch, or as a merger with or acquisition of an existing firm (M&A). The majority of FDI takes place through M&A activity rather than through greenfield investments, The share of M&A has increased steadily since the mid 1980s from 66.3 to 76.2 percent in the period The share of M&A is much smaller in developing than in advanced countries: 35.7 against 89 percent in

35 Cross-Border M&A Investments as a Percentage of FDI Inflows to the Host Countries World Developed Countries Developing countries and transition economies

36 World FDI Inward Stock by Industry, 2001 Industry Share of world FDI inward stock (%) Total 100 Manufacturing 41.6 Services 50.3 Primary sector

37 Comparing Average Size and Labor Productivity of Foreign Affiliates and All Firms in Manufacturing for the G5 Countries France Germany Japan UK USA Year 1997 Foreign affiliates All firms Foreign affiliates All firms Foreign affiliates All firms Foreign affiliates All firms Foreign affiliates All firms Number of employees per firm Turnover per firm* Value added per firm* Turnover per employee* Value added** * millions US$; ** millions US$/number of employees 1-37

38 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations Foreign subsidiaries of MNEs are on average larger than national firms in host economies. Labor productivity of foreign subsidiaries is above average, both when measured by turnover and value added per employee. Empirical studies: Foreign-owned subsidiaries are more productive than firms with no foreign affiliates Home activities of MNEs are more productive than those of national firms 1-38

39 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations Multinational firms are increasingly engaged in international production networks Example: the American car 30 percent of the car s value goes to Korea for assembly 17.5 percent to Japan for components and advanced technology 7.5 percent to Germany for design 4 percent to Taiwan and Singapore for minor parts 2.5 percent to the UK for advertising and marketing services and 1.5 percent to Ireland and Barbados for data processing. Only 37% of the production value is generated in the United States. 1-39

40 Some Data on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Corporations Vertical specialization Fragmentation Disintegration of production Intra-product specialization Reflects countries production of different stages of a good and the consequent trade in intermediate products. 1-40

41 Reasons for International Movement of Capital Capital is moved in response to the expectation of a higher rate of return in the new location than it earned in the old location. Rapidly growing markets Per capita income Access to mineral or raw material deposits Tariffs and nontariff barriers Low relative wages Defensive purpose to protect market shares Risk diversification Enter new markets Source the foreign technology base 1-41

42 Course Outline The Gravity Model of Trade (Cross-Country Regressions) Greenaway, D., Milner, C., Regionalism and gravity. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 49, The Effects of Common Currencies on Trade (Fixed Effects Regressions) Frankel, J., Rose, A.K., An estimate of the effect of common currencies on trade and income. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, Rose, A.K., One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade. Economic Policy 15, Trade and Income (IV Regressions) Frankel, J.A., Romer, D., Does trade cause growth? American Economic Review 89,

43 Course Outline Introduction to Time-Series Econometrics Juselius, K., Hendry, D.F., Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part I. Energy Journal, 21, Export-led Growth Herzer, D., Nowak-Lehmann D., F., Siliverstovs, B., Export-Led growth in Chile: assessing the role of export composition in productivity growth. The Developing Economies 44(3), Trade Composition and Productivity Herzer, D., How does trade composition affect productivity? Evidence for Chile. Applied Economics Letters 14(12),

44 Course Outline Outward FDI and Total Factor Productivity Herzer, D., The long-run relationship between outward FDI and total factor productivity: evidence for developing countries. IAI Discussion Paper No Outward and Domestic Investment Herzer, D., Schrooten, M., Outward FDI and domestic investment in two industrialized countries. Economics Letters 99(1), Outward and Economic Growth (Cross-Country Regressions) 1-44

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