Multi-Year, Multi-Constraint Strategy to
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1 Multi-Year, Multi-Constraint Strategy to Optimize Linear Assets Based on Life Cycle Costs Keivan Neshvadian, PhD Transportation Consultant July AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved
2 Pavement Asset Managment Pavement management is the process of planning the maintenance and rehabilitations of a network of roadways in order to optimize pavement condition and cost over the entire network Cost $ Condition Optimization Service Life 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 2
3 NEED for PMS Transportation infrastructures represent a very large amount of investment Preservation of these assets implies continuous investments to achieve serviceability, safety,life span In the US, an estimated $91 billion is budgeted to maintain highway pavements, but there is still a shortfall of $89 billion annually leading to a decline in condition and performance of pavements (*) * ASCE, 2013 Report Card for America s Infrastructure, American Society of Civil Engineers 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 3
4 PMS Outputs : What Where When Desired Output is a Work Plan Modern PMS assist decision makers in determining what treatment, when, and where? by optimizing pavement network work plans under budgetary and other agency constraints and objectives 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 4
5 Common Analysis Methods Worst First Method Ranking (Benefit/Cost) Optimization Multi Constraint (Sequential Opt) Optimization Multi Year (Holistic Opt) 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 5
6 WORST FIRST Overly simplistic Spending the budget mostly on first years Ignoring Preventive Maintenance Not Optimized 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 6
7 Ranking Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) Has been widely used by several transportation agencies Not too complex to implement and understand Cannot solve problems with multiple overlapping constraints It is not optimized 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 7
8 Need for Multiple Overlapping Constraints No budget in first year, X dollar in second year, Y dollar in third year PCI>75 for district A and PCI>80 for district B etc Constrains that targets different roadway classes (Interstate, Primary Roads, Secondary Roads) PCI>75 for 80% or more of the network and not more than 10% of the network to have PCI< AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 8
9 Ranking Available Budget is 250,000 $ Sections Cost Benefit B/C (X100) Selected 1 T1 $40, x 2 T2 $220, T3 $80, x 4 T4 $150, T5 $15, x Sections Cost Benefit B/C (X100) Selected 1 T1 $40, T2 $220, T3 $80, x 4 T4 $150, x 5 T5 $15, x Total Spent : 135,000 $ (55%) Sum of Benefit : 4550 Total Spent : 245,000 $ (98%) Sum of Benefit : 7950 * Benefit is defined as the area under the condition curve for each segment (Sum of condition score over service time) 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 9
10 Optimization Optimization checks different combo of s in different years and solve for best sets of Projects Optimization can analyze problems that B/C ranking cannot tackle Optimization can handle Multiple overlapping constraints The solution is a real work plan with identified sections and treatments 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 10
11 Multi Constraint Optimization Multi Constraint : Year by year analysis Start with recommending a treatment for each section for each year (Sequential) Multi Constraint analyzes each single year discretely Multi Constraint solution is optimal in each year 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 11
12 Multi - Constraint Analysis Year No 1 Network (Management Sections) Section 1 (For S1) Project 1 Section 2 (For S2) Section 3 Section 4 Decision Tree (For S3) (For S4) Project Selection Based on Constraints Project 2 Section 5 (For S5) Project AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 12
13 Multi - Constraint Analysis Year No 1 Year No 2 Year No 3 Network (Management Sections) Network (Management Sections) Section 1 (For S1) Project 1 Section 1 (For S1) Project 1 Section 2 (For S2) Section 2 (For S2) Section 3 Section 4 Decision Tree (For S3) (For S4) Project Selection Based on Constraints Project 2 Section 3 Section 4 Decision Tree (For S3) (For S4) Project Selection Based on Constraints Project 2 Section 5 (For S5) Project 3 Section 5 (For S5) Project AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 13
14 Multi Year Optimization Multi Year Multi Constraint : Checks the whole analysis Period for each section More Complex, Bigger problem For short analysis period Multi Year results is marginally as optimal as Multi Constraint 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 14
15 Multi Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Strategy 1 Strategy2 Strategy3 Strategy4 Strategy AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 15
16 Multi Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Strategy 1 Strategy2 Strategy3 Strategy4 Strategy5 Section 1 Strategy 1 Section 1 Strategy 5 Project 1 Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Decision Tree Section 1 Strategy 2 Section 1 Strategy 3 Section 2 Strategy 1 Select Best for Each Section Section 2 Strategy 3 Section 3 Strategy 1 Section 4 Strategy 2 Projects (WP) Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 Section 2 Strategy 2 Section 2 Strategy AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 16
17 Case Study for Analysis ~2000 Management Sections ~ lane miles 20 Alternatives Pavement Condition from Poor, to Good Average Condition Index = AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 17
18 Optimization Optimization method presented here have been used for many large scale networks ranging from the largest highway networks in the nation (eg, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia) to smaller county/city networks 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 18
19 Case Study Number 1 Need Analysis 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 19
20 5 years- Need Analysis Objective : Maximize Benefit Unlimited Budget ($$$$$$) Total spending almost was the same for both optimization methods (Need Analysis) after running analysis Number of Projects in the Work Plan Multi-Constraint Multi-Year Multi-Constraint Multi-Year Millions $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Year 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 20
21 Case Study Number 2 Limited Budget Analysis 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 21
22 10 Year Analysis Objective : Maximize Benefit $ available each year 2024 Benefit Year Thousands Multi-Constraint Multi-Year While benefits are maximized exactly the same way in both analyses, Multi Year analyses reached that benefit by spending less money which demonstrates better optimization 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 22
23 Summary Pavement management project selection for a large network is a complex problem specially when having several overlapping constraints Solving such complex problem need appropriate approach and powerful tools Cost $ Condition Optimization & Savings $$ Service Life 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 23
24 Summary Ranking method is not optimized Ranking method can not handle multiple constraints Optimization is proven to be the best solution Results from analysis on different networks have shown significant budget savings when using optimization methods Particularly for longer analysis periods, Multi-Year optimization analysis leads to better results and can save more money compare to Multi-Constraint analysis 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 24
25 Thank You! 2016 AgileAssets Inc All Rights Reserved 25
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