MISO Planning Process. May 31, 2013

Transcription

1 MISO Planning Process May 31, 2013

2 MISO Planning Objectives Fundamental Goal The development of a comprehensive expansion plan that meets reliability needs, policy needs, and economic needs MISO Board of Directors Planning Principles Make the benefits of an economically efficient energy market available to customers by identifying transmission projects which provide access to electricity at the lowest total electric system cost Provide a transmission infrastructure that meets all applicable NERC and Transmission Owner planning criteria and safeguards local and regional reliability through identification of transmission projects to meet those needs Support state and federal energy policy requirements by planning for access to a changing resource mix Provide an appropriate cost allocation mechanism that ensures that costs of transmission projects are allocated in a manner roughly commensurate with the projected benefits of those projects Analyze system scenarios and make the results available to state and federal energy policy makers and other stakeholders to provide context and to inform choices Coordinate transmission planning with neighboring planning regions to seek more efficient and cost-effective solutions 2

3 Focus is on minimizing the total cost of energy delivered to consumers High Capacity Cost Low Transmission Cost High Transmission Cost Low Capacity Cost Total Cost ($) Goal Minimum Total Cost: Energy, Capacity and Transmission H Capacity Cost L L Transmission Cost H 3

4 Conditions precedent for increased transmission build-out Regional tariff that matches who benefits with who pays over time Robust business case for plan Increased regional energy policy consensus Cost recovery mechanisms that reduce financial risk 4

5 Amalgamation of multiple techniques needed to address increased scope and complexity Reliability Planning Powerflow Strategic Planning Scenario analysis MISO Transmission Planning Decision Analysis Weighted average Probabilistic Energy Planning Congestion relief Reserve margin requirements Capacity Planning Resource forecasting 5

6 Planning Assessments Multi Value Assessment Economic Assessment Reliability Assessment Is there a regional solution which alleviates congestion on many points in the system? How does this solution help with reliability? Are the benefits sufficiently regionally distributed? Is there a single upgrade solution to solve the congestion that provides more benefits than costs over the first 20 years of its life? Is there a solution which, when combined with other economic projects into a portfolio, will solve the congestion and provide economic value? Is there a NERC reliability violation associated with the congestion? Is there a violation of the local Transmission Owner s planning criteria? What are the differences in the planning and operational models that are driving the congestion? 6

7 Planning Roles Top Down Planning (MISO driven) Access Planning* (Customer driven, MISO led) MISO Value- Based Planning Approach Policy Assessment (Inform and comply) Bottom Up Planning (Locally driven) *Access Planning includes both the long term Transmission Service Queue and the Generator Interconnection Queue. 7

8 Stakeholder and Regulatory Involvement 8

9 MISO Value Based Planning STEP 1: MULTI-FUTURE REGIONAL RESOURCE FORECASTING STEP 2: SITE-GENERATION AND PLACE IN POWERFLOW MODEL STEP 3: DESIGN CONCEPTUAL TRANSMISSION OVERLAYS BY FUTURE IF NECESSARY STEP 4: TEST CONCEPTUAL TRANSMISSION FOR ROBUSTNESS STEP 7: COST ALLOCATION ANALYSIS STEP 6: EVALUATE CONCEPTUAL TRANSMISSION FOR RELIABILITY STEP 5: CONSOLIDATE & SEQUENCE TRANSMISSION PLANS Objective of value based planning is to develop the most robust plan under a variety of scenarios not the least-cost plan under a single scenario The best transmission plan may be different in each policy-based future scenario The transmission plan that is the best-fit (most robust) against all these scenarios should offer the most future value in supporting the future resource mix 9

10 Futures development and regional resource forecasting Regional resource forecasting is needed to obtain multiple long term views of theoretical supply and demand resource availability given different policy and economic drivers Future scenarios and underlying assumptions are developed collaboratively with stakeholders through the Planning Advisory Committee The goal is a range of Futures linked to likely real-life scenarios that provides an envelope of outcomes that are significantly broad, rather than a single expected forecast Narrow and less useful Broad and more useful MW MW Years Years 10

11 Economic Model Inputs Policy Impacts Emissions Information Fuel Price Forecasts Transmission Information Generator Information Economic Models Demand & Energy Growth Rates 11

12 Design conceptual transmission by Future, if necessary Native Voltage Transmission Overlay Strategy 765 kv Transmission Overlay Strategy 12 Native Voltage with DC Transmission Overlay Strategy

13 Test conceptual transmission for robustness Summary of prior study inputs into Multi Value Project (MVP) Portfolio 13

14 Consolidate and sequence transmission plans Multi Value Project (MVP) Portfolio 14

15 Evaluate conceptual transmission for reliability Reliability assessment using a suite of tests to determine system performance: Steady-state analysis Voltage stability Short-circuit stability Dynamic/transient stability assessments For any identified reliability issues, both MISO and TOs develop plans to ensure system reliability with the addition of proposed transmission 15

16 Cost allocation analysis Allocation Category Driver(s) Allocation to Beneficiaries Participant Funded ( Other ) Transmission Owner identified project that does not qualify for other cost allocation mechanisms. Paid by requestor (local zone) Transmission Delivery Service Project Generation Interconnection Project Transmission Service Request Interconnection Request Generally paid for by Transmission Customer; Transmission Owner can elect to roll-in into local zone rates Primarily paid for by requestor; 345 kv and above 10% postage stamp to load Baseline Reliability Project NERC Reliability Criteria 100% allocated to local Pricing Zone Market Efficiency Project Multi Value Project Reduce market congestion when benefits are 1.25 times in excess of cost Address energy policy laws and/or provide widespread benefits across footprint Distributed to Local Resource Zones commensurate with expected benefit; 345 kv and above 20% postage stamp to load 100% postage stamp to load 16