EIPC Roll-Up Report & Scenarios

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1 EIPC Roll-Up Report & Scenarios Zach Smith Director, Transmission Planning New York Independent System Operator IPTF/EGCWG/ESPWG Meeting January 6, New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

2 Agenda Background Roll-Up Model and Assumptions Roll-Up Results and Report Sample Scenarios for Study in 2014 Schedule for Stakeholder Input on Scenarios to be Studied 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 2

3 Background Initial EIPC Scope of Activities adopted Dec 2009 Non-grant work in 2013 Roll-up analysis of the Planning Authority s (PA) plans to find possible changes that will improve their efficiency and effectiveness Result of this analysis available for consideration in regional and inter-regional planning processes Perform a defined number of scenarios/sensitivities against the roll-up model Separate from the DOE-funded Gas-Electric System Interface Study 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 3

4 Planning Authority responsibilities Create and modify steady-state load-flow models Develop 2018 and 2023 summer peak models Prepare 2018 and 2023 roll-up documentation Conduct steady-state load-flow analysis Identify any reliability enhancements needed Gap Analysis Perform transfer analysis Prepare roll-up report 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 4

5 Model Assumptions Overview Case Snapshot of summer peak conditions (2018 and 2023) Secured for N-1 Load Forecast Each PA provided baseline forecasts consistent with its regional plan NYISO: 50/50, includes energy efficiency Economic growth and conservation modeled consistent with regional plans Varies across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 5

6 Model Assumptions Overview Scheduled Area Interchange Long-term firm transmission service between Balancing Authorities is modeled Interchanges are generally consistent with ERAG MMWG Generation Dispatch Base case generation dispatch is set according to the internal assumptions and procedures of each PA Generally uses economic dispatch or typical market dispatch for peak conditions 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 6

7 Model Assumptions Overview New Transmission Projects PAs have agreed to the following terms to describe the status of future transmission projects: Planned The project has completed the respective PA s planning process, including any applicable regional planning process approvals (for example, ISO or RTO approvals), but specific contractual obligations have not been committed to, or regulatory approvals obtained. Proposed The project has been proposed but not yet completed the respective PA s planning process nor received applicable regional planning process approvals New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 7

8 Model Assumptions Overview New Transmission Projects NYISO includes the following transmissions projects as: Planned Firm transmission projects as listed in the 2013 Gold Book. Proposed Transmission associated with proposed generation projects. Includes Attachment Facilities, System Upgrade Facilities and System Deliverability Upgrades 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 8

9 Model Assumptions Overview New Generation Projects PAs have agreed to the following terms to describe the status of future generation projects: Committed The resource has completed the interconnection request process, or has obtained applicable transmission service. Proposed The resource has been proposed and included in the planning process, but does not have applicable transmission service. NYISO included generation projects consistent with RNA base case inclusion rules New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 9

10 Interregional Gap Analysis PAs analyzed their system to determine if the coordinated plan had any gaps such as: Pre-existing system conditions Adverse impacts due to neighboring PA plans No gaps reported for NYISO Potential issues identified by MISO, PJM, and SPP 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 10

11 Inter-Area Enhancements PAs examine projects near their borders and coordinate with neighbors on combined system enhancements to address any gaps identified. Some conceptual upgrades are being considered by MISO New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 11

12 Linear Transfer Analysis Objective is to demonstrate how much additional power can be reliably moved between areas Analyzed 5,000 MW incremental transfers between selected areas This is in addition to the firm transfers already included in the Roll-Up case Monitored the following (100 kv and above): N-0 branch overloads N-1 branch overloads Also included NPCC design-criteria contingencies 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 12

Defined Areas and Transfers Planning Coordinators in Each Area Transfers Performed 2013 New

14 Transfer Results for Northeast Table ES-3: 2018 Linear Transfer Results Source Sink FCITC (MW) Lim. PA Con. PA B C 2,800 PENELEC-PJM NYISO/PENELEC-PJM C B 1,800 NYISO NYISO C D 1,400 NYISO NYISO D C 1,900 PENELEC-PJM NYISO/PENELEC-PJM Table ES-4: 2023 Linear Transfer Results Source Sink FCITC (MW) Lim. PA Con. PA B C 3,400 PENELEC-PJM N/A C B 1,800 NYISO NYISO C D 1,500 NYISO NYISO D C 2,100 PENELEC-PJM N/A 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 14

16 Scenarios for Study in 2014 Principles and Guidelines Document Sample Scenarios Posted on EIPC Website Schedule for Stakeholder Input on Scenarios to be Studied 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 16

17 Scenario Principles and Guidelines Document posted on EIPC website Describes the types of scenarios that will be analyzed in 2014 Provides a sample format for stakeholders to use in providing their ideas on possible scenarios to be studied 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 17

18 Principles and Guidelines Document All scenarios will be run as changes to the Base Plan (Roll-up Cases) Purpose is to develop high-level transmission build-outs that provide information relevant to the scenarios suggested such as Federal and/or regional policy development Scenarios should not be duplicative of any other local or regional planning efforts or transmission requests subject to analysis under the OATT provisions of any party 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 18

19 Principles and Guidelines Document The assumptions defining a scenario should be provided by the stakeholder sponsors in sufficient detail to allow analysis by EIPC EIPC members will work with stakeholders to identify any restrictions, exceptions or gaps in the definition of assumptions Changes to the Roll-up Cases resulting from the scenario assumptions will be determined by the EIPC members based on their individual assessments and input from Stakeholders 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 19

20 Number of Scenarios Up to 3 scenarios per biennial study cycle, with a 10 year study horizon A scenario is a consistent set of input assumptions defining a future state which may vary from the base roll-up case May require additional sensitivities May include seasonal analyses using a different roll-up model (e.g. off-peak or shoulder peak model) The magnitude of the effort involved to analyze the scenario may reduce the number of scenarios that can be considered in each study cycle 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 20

21 Sample Scenario 1 Scenario Title: Inter-Regional Capabilities and Constraints during Winter Conditions Scenario Submitted by: Example Scenario 1 Study Case: 2018 Winter Peak 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 21

22 Sample Scenario 1 General Description and Premise This scenario would assess the Eastern Interconnection s ability to transfer large amounts of power among regions of interest during winter peak conditions The 2018 model year would incorporate the generation retirements and other system changes associated with the implementation of the EPA MATS rules. Winter operations are growing in complexity as gas-fired generation, renewables, and demand-side options continue to increase as percentage of the overall generation mix. This scenario would provide both an assessment of interregional capabilities and constraints for 2018 winter conditions, and also would provide suitable modeling to enable independent analysis by transmission planners and other industry analysts New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 22

23 Sample Scenario 1 Questions to be Answered Based on Power Flow Analysis: What constraints arise when renewables, gas generation, etc. are transferred during winter conditions? These are important so the EIPC can understand the objective of the study Modeling Parameters: Provides the details of what is to be studied Resource Modifications: Details how resources change in the scenario to be studied 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 23

24 Sample Scenario 2 Scenario Title: Inter-Regional Capabilities and Constraints during Spring Peak Conditions Scenario Submitted by: Example Scenario 2 Study Case: 2018 Spring Peak 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 24

25 Sample Scenario 2 General Description and Premise This scenario would assess the Eastern Interconnection s ability to transfer large amounts of power among regions of interest during spring peak conditions. The 2018 model year would incorporate the generation retirements and other system changes associated with the implementation of the EPA MATS rules. Spring operations are growing in complexity as gas-fired generation, renewables, and demand-side options continue to increase as percentage of the overall generation mix. Generation resources are more likely to be off-line due to lower loads and due to maintenance outages. Wind resources generally have higher capacity factors while solar resources have shorter production hours than summer but higher than winter New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 25

26 Sample Scenario 2 Questions to be Answered Based on Power Flow Analysis: What constraints arise when renewables, gas generation, etc. are transferred during spring conditions? Modeling Parameters: Provides the details of what is to be studied Resource Modifications: Details how resources change in the scenario to be studied 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 26

27 Next Steps EIPC Schedule December 2013 to February 2014 Regional meetings to discuss stakeholder feedback on possible scenarios and selection January 31, 2014 Stakeholder input on possible scenarios due February 26, 2014 EIPC Webinar to discuss stakeholder feedback on scenario options and finalize scenarios to be studied in New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 27

28 Next Steps EIPC Schedule March 7, 2014 Stakeholder final comments on the scenarios due to regional process March 2014 EIPC consideration of comments on scenario selection and final determination of scenarios March 28, 2014 Final scenario descriptions and 2014 schedule posted March 31, 2014 EIPC PAs begin work on scenarios 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 28

29 EIPC Supporting Activities CEII: Continue to make EIPC models available to those who have completed the EIPC CEII process NYISO stakeholders use NYISO CEII Request Form and NDA Website: Continue to host the EIPC website Review current EIPC website and recommended modifications as appropriate Post material from both grant and non-grant EIPC activities 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 29

Cost Allocation Principles for Seams Transmission Expansion Projects

Cost Allocation Principles for Seams Transmission Expansion Projects SPP s seams agreements currently contain requirements for SPP to develop coordinated system plans with its neighbors. The extent and