Generation Retirement Scenario Special Assessment Update

Transcription

1 Generation Retirement Scenario Special Assessment Update John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessments and Technical Committees Member Representatives Committee Meeting November 6, 2018

2 Assessment Objectives Special Reliability Assessment continues effort to address BPS risks due to changing resource mix (RISC Report Profile #1) Topic selected with MRC support (May 2017 Policy Input) Objective: Apply stress-test scenario to examine the potential impacts of an accelerated generator retirement scenario on: Resource adequacy Transmission adequacy Ability to manage extreme events (e.g., extreme weather, fuel supply disruptions) As a stress-test, the scenario is not a predictive forecast 2

3 Background Retirement Trends Over 100 GW of conventional generation retired Since 2011 (2017 LTRA) LTRA future projections do not account for unannounced retirements 3

4 Studied Areas Assessment examines ten areas where coal-fired and nuclear generation make up a significant portion of the resource mix 4

5 Stress-Test Scenario Approach Utilizing EIA retirements data as reference case, the stress-test scenario shortens EIA s timeframe from 2025 to 2022 Accelerated retirements include: Coal-fired generation reduced by 30% Nuclear generation reduced by ~45% Replace capacity with Tier 1 and Tier 2 resources (includes natural gas, wind, solar) Compare with reference margin levels Further analyze effect of extreme conditions Retirement Capacity - Reference Case Compared to Scenario Case 5 RELIABILITY ILIT ITY ACCOUNTABILITY COUN *no reported confirmed retirements

6 Example of Polar Vortex Risk Analysis (Extreme Event Case) - PJM 6

7 Approach Transmission Planning Studies Two power flow studies illustrate the impact of retirements on the transmission system ERCOT PSEG Study of PJM Area Location of Coal and Nuclear Generation Retired in ERCOT Study (2022) Location of Coal and Nuclear Generation Retired in PSEG Study (2022) 7

8 Approach Retirement Processes Describe regional processes for managing generator retirements Timelines and responsibilities for review and approval Inputs: Regional Entity inputs RTO responses to FERC AD RELIABILITY ILIT ITY ACCOUNTABILITY COUN T

9 Resource Adequacy Finding Generation retirements can reduce reserve margins to below or near reference margin levels Recommendation: Employ Planning Processes and Market Mechanisms to Mitigate Reliability Risks 2022 Peak Reserve Margins *Actual Planning Reserve Margin is near or below 0% **Chart depicts the projected 2022 Planning Reserve Margin Reference Case below Reference Margin Level based on 2017 LTRA data and announced retirements. Generation Retirement Scenario Planning Reserve Margins assume new generation is installed to make up for confirmed and accelerated retirements. 9

10 Fuel Assurance Finding Natural Gas Capacity Contribution to Fuel Mix Natural gas-fired generation proportion in the resource mix increases in the retirement scenario Recommendation: Incorporate fuel assurance analysis in generator retirement processes 10

11 Transmission Study Finding Transmission upgrades, generation dispatch, and operating procedures are needed for reliability in studied scenario 11 Use of mechanisms to manage pace of retirements may be needed Location where thermal violations are identified (Summer 2022) ERCOT Study Location where thermal violations are identified (Summer 2022) PSEG Study Recommendation: Planners and regulators should consider ways to expedite permitting processes for transmission and energy infrastructure

12 Next Steps and Coordination Early November Provide Draft Report to NERC Board and MRC (Embargoed) December - January NERC Board call to accept report 12

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14 Notional View of Accelerated Retirements Accelerated generation retirements occur within the long-range planning horizon and can stress BPS planning processes 14

15 Generation Retirement Scenario Assessment scenario based on EIA generation retirement projections for 2025 that are accelerated to occur by Nuclear Capacity EIA and NERC 2017 LTRA Coal-fired Capacity EIA and NERC 2017 LTRA Reducing coal-fired generation by 30% / nuclear generation by 45%