Real-Time Reserves. Vince Stefanowicz Sr. Lead Engineer, Generation Operating Committee May 1, PJM 2018

Transcription

1 Real-Time Reserves Vince Stefanowicz Sr. Lead Engineer, Generation Operating Committee May 1, 2018

2 Timeline / Work Plan OC (3/6/18) Education OC (4/3/18) Education Feedback OC (5/1/18) Review Analysis Proposal OC (6/5/18) Solution Endorsement MRC PJM PJM Joint (3/22/18) EPFSTF Issue Charge (4/3 5/1) Research Analysis (5/1 6/5) Follow-up Analysis OC/EPFSTF (June 2018) 2

3 Reserves Review from 4/3 OC Reserves are additional generation capacity above the expected load Currently 30 Minute Reserves are only procured Day-Ahead Day-Ahead Scheduling Reserve (T 30 Min) Real-Time Contingency (Primary) Reserve (T 10 Min) Synchronized Reserve (Synchronized) Non-Synchronized Reserve (Off-Line) Real-Time Secondary Reserve (10 Min T 30 Min) T = Time Interval Following PJM Request 3

4 Reserves Current Requirements Day Ahead Scheduling Reserve (DASR) 30 Minute Reserves are only procured Day-Ahead Calculated annually and factor in: Load Forecast Error (LFE) Component: 2.05% for 2018 Forced Outage Rate (FOR) Component: 3.24% for 2018 Real-Time Reserve Requirements Synchronized Reserve = largest energy contingency Primary Reserve = 150% of largest energy contingency Operating (30 Minute) Reserve Currently undefined 4

5 DASR Req. = LFE + FOR Components RF + EKPC Day Ahead Scheduling Reserve Requirement Time Period Winter 2015 through Fall 2017 Load Forecast Error (LFE) Component 3 year average of Under forecasted LFE Forced Outage Rate Component 3 year average of edart Forced Outages, submitted after 18:00 on Scheduling Day (D-1), effective after Operating Day (D) 08:00 ending before Operating Day (D) 20:00 5

6 DASR Requirement Components 2018 LFE component is 2.05% (down 0.08%) 2018 FOR component is 3.24% (down 0.10%) 2018 DASR Requirement is 5.29% 6

7 Applicable NERC Standard NERC BAL-002-2(i) - Disturbance Control Standard Contingency Reserve for Recovery from a Balancing Contingency Event R-3 Requires restoration of Contingency Reserve to at least Most Severe Single Contingency (MSSC), before the end of the Contingency Reserve Restoration Period, not to exceed 90 minutes 7

8 ISO-NE (ISONE OP-8) Activities in other ISO/RTO/BA 30 Minute Operating Reserve covers at least 50% of 2nd contingency Can be increased to 100% when system conditions threaten to reduce actual quantity below the current prescribed levels Locational element respects import constraints Insufficient Operating Reserves will trigger Capacity Deficiency procedures Replacement Reserve Additional 30 Minute Op Reserve used to meet the NERC requirement to restore Ten-Minute Reserve Insufficient Replacement Reserves will NOT trigger Capacity Deficiency procedures 8

9 NYISO has reserve requirements that vary by zone Activities in other ISO/RTO/BA Defined by New York State Reliability Council Reliability Rules & Compliance Manual New York Control Area (NYCA) 30 minute reserve requirement 200% of largest contingency Used to replace the operating capacity loss caused by the most severe contingency Required to restore 10 minute operating reserve in 30 minutes or less 9

10 Activities in other ISO/RTO/BA The TVA BA has established the following reserve criteria: Total Reserve = Contingency Reserve + Regulating Reserve + Replacement Reserve Contingency Reserve 1350 MW (less than 15 minute response) Based on Most Severe Single Contingency (MSSC) Regulating Reserve 200 MW (less than 5 minute response) Replacement Reserve 1500 MW (less than 90 minute response) Based on replacing the Contingency Reserve and the Regulating Reserve 10

11 Real-Time 30 Minute Reserve Need Reposition generation and recover reserves after Most Severe Single Contingency (MSSC) Address variability in load, wind & solar forecasts Other real time operational considerations Efficiently manage gas pipeline contingencies Conservative Operations Capacity-related Emergency Procedures Credible physical & cyber threats Severe weather events Future considerations Distributed Energy Resource integration 11

12 Supporting Analysis Intraday Load Forecast Error (LFE) Under Forecast Intraday Wind / Solar forecast error Over Forecast Historical actual 30 Minute Reserve values Historical DASR commitments Historical Most Severe Single Contingency (MSSC) values Intraday interchange volatility 12

13 PJM Proposed Approach Real Time 30 Minute Reserve Objective Baseline 30 Minute Reserve Objective = Summation of: 200% of largest unit which is approximately 1500 MW 3 year average of seasonal, 1 hour-ahead value of: Load Forecast Error (MW) Wind Forecast Error (MW) Solar Forecast Error (MW) Recalculated annually 13

14 Seasonal Analysis Summary Season Spring Summer Fall Winter Largest Unit (MW) Expected Peak Load (MW) 87, , , ,000 DASR LFE + FOR (%) 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% DASR Requirement (MW) 4,602 6,613 5,290 6, % of Largest Unit 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Load Forecast Error (MW) Wind Forecast Error (MW) Solar Forecast Error (MW) Seasonal Total 3,769 3,710 3,760 3,897 Annual Average 3,784 Real Time 30 Minute Operating Reserve Objective 14

15 PJM EMS-Calculated 30 Minute Reserves Considers resource operating parameters including Unit status (online, offline) Total time to start Ramp rate Unit derates (reductions, total outages) Excludes certain resource types, e.g. wind, solar, nuclear 15

16 PJM Real Time Operating Reserve Summary Year Minimum Reserve (MW) Average Reserve (MW) % Time Below 5000 MW Hours Below 5000 MW % Time Below 6000 MW Hours Below 6000 MW ,426 15, % % ,157 13, % % ,868 14, % % ,718 16, % %

17 Next Steps PJM to perform additional analysis on: Potential adjustments to base value considering Conservative Operations Emergency Procedures Gas Pipeline Contingencies Situations requiring additional synchronized reserves Effect of cold morning pickup Select operating events 17

18 PJM Recommendation Baseline 30 Minute Reserve Objective = Summation of: 200% of largest unit which is approximately 1500 MW 3 year average of seasonal, 1 hour-ahead value of: Load Forecast Error (MW) Wind Forecast Error (MW) Solar Forecast Error (MW) 18

19 Timeline / Work Plan OC (3/6/18) Education OC (4/3/18) Education Feedback OC (5/1/18) Review Analysis Proposal OC (6/5/18) Solution Endorsement MRC PJM PJM Joint (3/22/18) EPFSTF Issue Charge (4/3 5/1) Research Analysis (5/1 6/5) Follow-up Analysis OC/EPFSTF (June 2018) 19