WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

Transcription

1 WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE Weekly Summary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last week that natural gas storage decreased by 206 Bcf. The withdrawal for the same week last year was 76 Bcf while the five-year average withdrawal is 99 Bcf. Total U.S. natural gas in storage stood at 3,126 Bcf last week, 5.8% less than last year and 5.8% less than the five-year average for this time of year. Energy markets reacted with extreme volatility last week after record breaking cold weather set in across the vast majority of North America. Spot prices for both gas and electricity jumped 10-20X from City to Virginia and into sections of Western PJM. Day-Ahead electric prices in, which had been averaging $35/MWh on in late December spiked to $185.50/MWh on January 4 th and up to $247.75/MWh on January 5 th. Real-time prices in ISO-NE topped $300/MWh for much of January 5 th. Large weather driven price swings in both directions are still anticipated as the winter season continues and rapidly changing temperature outlooks remain a primary driver. However, despite the extreme regional prices over the past week, the Henry Hub natural gas benchmark was virtually unfazed and is, at least temporarily, trading close to pre- bomb cyclone prices. This is despite the fact that gas in storage is now at its largest deficit to the 5-year average since December 2014, and the next EIA weekly storage report is expected to show a hefty withdrawal. Pilgrim nuclear plant, a 680-MW generator located just south of Boston, was taken offline on January 4 th during the bomb cyclone that brought frigid temperatures and blizzard-like conditions to much of the Northeast. Two high voltage lines serve Pilgrim, but the storm brought one down causing the shutdown. According to Eversource, the fallen line has since been repaired, inspection has been completed, and as of 8 PM on Friday Pilgrim has had the all clear from the utility to proceed as usual. However, the site was still offline as of Monday morning without a clear indication of when service would resume, citing the information as business sensitive. ISO-NE grid operators are trained to manage unexpected outages and have stated that no immediate reliability issues exist. ISO-NE will continue to monitor reliability while keeping an eye on any oil-fired generation facilities that approach emission limitations oil generation accounted for almost 40% of system dispatch over the weekend. Warm weather forecasts for later in week should smooth fuel deliveries needed at other power plants, easing some concern. FERC unanimously voted to reject DOE NOPR, the Department of Energy's proposed rule to subsidize "fuel secure" energy resources (coal and nuclear). In their decision, the FERC wrote that the proposed rule did not show that existing market rules are unjust and unreasonable. The FERC directed RTO/ISOs to explain how they are addressing resilience and whether any new action is required. NYMEX - Annual s Henry Hub 2018 (balance of) Henry Hub 2019 Henry Hub 2020 $3.40 $ / MMBtu $2.90 $2.40 NYMEX Summary Prompt Month: Front Month: : NYMEX Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Close () % Change from Last Week $ % $ % $ % $ % EIA Storage Summary Total (Bcf) Current levels vs Previous years (Bcf) % Difference - Current vs Previous years Injection/ Withdrawal : Storage Inventories This week 3, Same week - Last year 5 Year Average for this week 3,318 3, % -5.8% 1

2 Annual Forward s - Basis Algon Gates 2018 (balance of) Algon Gates 2019 Algon Gates 2020 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Algon Gates, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change 2018 $1.630 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2019 $1.680 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2020 $1.691 $ % $ % $ % $ % $45.H.Internal_Hub $43 $41 $39 $37 $35 $33 ISO-NE NEMA Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 2

3 Annual Forward s - Basis $1.20 Transco Z 6 NY 2019 Transco Z 6 NY 2020 Transco Z 6 NY 2018 (balance of) $0.70 $0.20 Transco Zone 6 NY, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change 2018 $0.484 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2019 $0.420 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2020 $0.399 $ % $ % $ % $ % $46 N.Y.C - J $44 $42 $40 $38 $36 NYISO - Lower Hudson Valley Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 3

4 Annual Forward s - Basis $0.40 $0.20 Tetco M Tetco M Tetco M (balance of) -$0.20 -$0.40 Tetco M3, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change 2018 $0.074 $ % -$ % $ % -$ $ % -$ % $ % -$ $ $ % -$ % % -$0.100 % Change 149% 105.6% 60.6% $38 PJM East $36 $34 $32 $30 PJM BGE, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 4

5 Annual Forward s - Basis $0.10 -$0.10 -$0.20 SoCal Border 2019 SoCal Border 2020 SoCal Border 2018 (balance of) -$0.30 -$0.40 SoCal Border, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$0.115 % Change % $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $36 SP15 $34 $32 $30 $28 $26 CAISO SP15, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 5

6 Annual Forward s - Basis $0.08 $0.03 Houston Ship Channel 2019 Houston Ship Channel $0.02 -$0.07 -$0.12 Houston Ship Channel % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % % $ % $ $ % -$ % % $ % $ $ % -$ % % $ % $33 Houston Zone $31 $29 $27 ERCOT Houston Zone % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 6

7 Annual Forward s - Basis -$0.20 NW Sumas 2019 NW Sumas 2020 Houston Ship Channel 2018 (balance of) -$0.40 -$0.60 -$0.80 -$1.00 NW Sumas, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % Annual Forward s -Basis $0.08 FGT Z FGT Z FGT Z (balance of) $0.04 -$0.04 -$0.08 FGT Z 3, Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % $ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % $ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % $ % 7