What Happens Now to Regeneration Schemes?- Housing Market Renewal in Manchester and Salford

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Myles Franklin
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1 National Housing Federation Annual Housing Development Conference What Happens Now to Regeneration Schemes?- Housing Market Renewal in Manchester and Salford Richard Elliott 11 July 2011

2 OVERVIEW Housing Market Renewal Partnership between Manchester and Salford City Councils, working with local communities to restructure the local housing market, has achieved a lot since 2003 Recession coupled with loss of funding has had major implications for the pace of change and led to the need for new delivery models Housing market has inherent strengths but still faces major challenges continued dis-connect between some communities and employment offer Housing growth is an integral part of wider city region growth ambitions Scale of task still remaining is considerable Levels of Deprivation Still High (MSP area within the most deprived 10% LSOAs Nationally)

3 The Need for Action - Population Decline

4 Achievements

5 MSP KEY OUTPUTS 2003/10 13,000 Homes Refurbished 1,132 new homes as a direct consequence of HMR 14,000 new homes delivered in total in MSP area Manchester 1 of only 6 authorities in England and only one outside SE to record 10% population growth hectares of land assembled 70,306 households benefitted from improvements to land surrounding their homes Private sector match funding 64.75m

6 BESWICK

7 BESWICK

8 TOXETH STREET

9 TOXETH STREET

10 LOWER BROUGHTON

11 LOWER BROUGHTON

12 HIGHER BROUGHTON

13 HIGHER BROUGHTON

14 CHIMNEY POT PARK

15 CHIMNEY POT PARK

16 Current Housing Market

17 Average sale prices PRICES Prices in MCC (-9.3%) and SCC (-11.1%) remain below market peak MCC acute & stabilised / SCC softer but prolonged Overall sale prices 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Overall Sale Prices by GM District Manchester Salford

18 Total number of sales SALES Similar overall (circa 60%) falls in MCC (-62.4%) / SCC (-60.4%) In line with prices MCC fell first (2006/7) / followed by SCC (2007/8) Total Number of Sales 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Overall Sales by GM District Manchester Salford

19 2007 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 % of Loans MORTGAGE LENDING Dominated by lending to high equity transactions (75%+ LTV) 80 Figure 19 - % of gross total lending by Loan to Value Ratio ( ) Source: Council for Mortgage Lenders 2010 Quarter <= 75% >75% >90% >95%

20 MORTGAGE AVAILABILITY Penalties for low or no deposit borrowers remain Table 13 National Top 4 Best Rate Variable Mortgages (tracker) Lender Interest Rate Term LTV 2.19% 2 Years 65% 2.19% Feb-13 60% 2.19% 2 Years 60% 2.29% Jan-13 75% Table 14 - National Top 4 Best Fixed Rate Mortgages Lender Interest Rate Term LTV 2.65% Feb-13 60% 2.69% 2 Years 65% 2.89% Jan-13 75% 3.29% Feb-14 75% Table 15 - Top 3 Best Rate 90% Variable Mortgages (tracker) Lender Interest Rate Term LTV 4.29% Term 90% 4.99% 2 Years 90% 5.49% Term 90% Table 16 - Top 3 Best Rate 90% Fixed Mortgages Lender Interest Rate Term LTV 4.99% Feb-13 90% 5.09% Jan-13 90% 5.09% Feb-13 90% Source: moneysupermarket.com 20 December 2010

21 4 Bed Houses 3 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 2 Bed Apartments 1 Bed Studios ASKING RENTS & AVAILABILITY Increasing rents & take up across all property types apartments in particular (2009/10) Average Rents Availability District April April Annual April April Annual Change Change City Centre Manchester MSP Salford City Centre Manchester MSP Salford City Centre Manchester ,660 1, MSP Salford City Centre 1,199 1, Manchester MSP Salford City Centre No houses on the market Manchester MSP Salford City Centre No houses on the market Manchester MSP Salford City Centre No houses on the market Manchester 992 1, MSP 973 1, Salford

22 Integrating Renewal and Housing Growth

23 WORKING AGE POPULATION GROWTH Growth in working age population mirrors new build sales and PRS growth Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2008 Ageing + Births - Deaths + Net Migration (GP records, Child Benefit, Older Persons Register, National Migration Survey)

24 ACCOMMODATING GROWTH? Supported sales & strong PRS demand has helped us through so far but Attract Economically Active Residents BBC Employees Retain Graduates Private Rented Sector Conurbation Core Demand Supported Entry Level Sales High Quality Management High Quality Housing Maintain Momentum

25 Indexed values based on 2000 (Year 2004 = 100) MSP Begins Start of Recession Current Position POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT & HOUSING House building below growth forecast PRS taking up slack - nearing capacity? Comparing Population and Employment Growth with Residential Development - Manchester / Salford (MSP) Completions forecast reflects a gradually increasing proportion of the SHLAA potential being delivered (initially 18%, growing to 75%) Employment Population Net Completions

26 THE INVESTMENT MARKET Linked with major infrastructure

27 THE INVESTMENT MARKET Optimising commercial momentum & employment connectivity

28 THE INVESTMENT MARKET In the east and west of the city centre

29 Remaining Challenges

30 LOWER BROUGHTON NOW

31 LOWER BROUGHTON FUTURE

32 NEW ISLINGTON NOW

33 NEW ISLINGTON FUTURE

34 BESWICK NOW

35 BESWICK FUTURE

36 SPORTSCITY NOW

37 SPORTCITY FUTURE

38 TOXTETH STREET NOW

39 TOXTETH STREET FUTURE

40 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007

41 Forward Investment Framework & Land Availability

42 EXISTING COMMITMENTS

43 BESWICK

44 TOXTETH STREET

45 LOWER BROUGHTON

46 The Way Forward

47 Maintaining Momentum Neighbourhoods not yet at the tipping point where private sector alone can take task of regeneration forward Current market means that some public support is still likely to be required to complete transformation High levels of deprivation still endemic in many neighbourhoods Private sector jobs growth at the conurbation core requires residential development momentum to support it Multi- phase developments need resources to complete delivery Danger of early movers feeling isolated in half completed developments Doing nothing is not an option given high costs associated with management of semi complete neighbourhoods

48 New Delivery Vehicles Investing public land as equity Deferred land receipts Build to rent privately - well managed / intermediate Institutional investment Accelerated Development Zones/ Tax Increment Financing

49 Way Forward Salford and Manchester are committed to continuing to work together sharing learning and good practice Unsuccessful bids through RGF round 1 poor fit between housing projects and programme Exploring potential of other funding sources eg New Homes Bonus and JESSICA/Evergreen Fund Critical need to identify a level of resource to maintain the focus on the task in very difficult circumstances Some limited funding to support transition process Desire to continue to work with CLG and HCA to find ways of maintaining momentum

POPULATION TOPIC PAPER

LOCAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK RESEARCH REPORT POPULATION TOPIC PAPER Updated February 2011 For further information on this report please contact Planning Policy, Woking Borough Council, Civic Offices, Gloucester