SOUTH WORCESTERSHIRE MALVERN HILLS DISTRICT COUNCIL, WORCESTER CITY COUNCIL AND WYCHAVON DISTRICT COUNCIL

Transcription

1 SOUTH WORCESTERSHIRE MALVERN HILLS DISTRICT COUNCIL, WORCESTER CITY COUNCIL AND WYCHAVON DISTRICT COUNCIL CHELMER DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING REVIEW PAPER Reference: BIR.3029 Date: February 2013 Pegasus Group 5 The Priory London Road Canwell Sutton Coldfield B75 5SH T F Birmingham Bracknell Bristol Cambridge Cirencester East Midlands Leeds Manchester Planning Environmental Retail Urban Design Renewables Landscape Design Graphic Design Consultation Sustainability

2 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The purpose of this Review Paper is to provide evidence to demonstrate the appropriate level of housing provision for the study area, South Worcestershire, to provide for arising needs and demands of the population based upon projections generated by the Chelmer Housing and Population Model, which uses a demographic methodology to determine future housing provision. 1.2 The Review Paper supports representations made to the South Worcestershire Development Plan. The Chelmer Model has generated a range of projections for each of the constituent authorities of South Worcestershire, namely Malvern Hills District Council, Worcester City Council and Wychavon District Council, over the plan period The paper begins, in section 2, by setting the policy context for determining housing requirements through the plan making process, particularly the National Planning Policy Framework. Section 3 presents demographic contextual data i.e. population, households, natural change and migration for the study area within the relevant period set by the emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan for all three authorities. 1.4 The paper concludes, in section 4, by summarising the projections generated by the Chelmer Housing and Population Model and the implications for the South Worcestershire study area. The outputs of the model are included as appendices to this paper. BIR

3 2. POLICY CONTEXT National Planning Policy Framework 2.1 National planning policy in respect of determining appropriate housing requirements through the plan making process is set out within the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), published in March Paragraph 14 from the NPPF sets out the presumption in favour of sustainable which lies at the heart of the document. For plan making this means that: local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area; Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change, unless: - any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in this Framework taken as a whole; or - specific policies in this Framework indicate development should be restricted.9 9 For example, those policies relating to sites protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives (see paragraph 119) and/or designated as Sites of Special Scientific Interest; land designated as Green Belt, Local Green Space, an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, Heritage Coast or within a National Park (or the Broads Authority); designated heritage assets; and locations at risk of flooding or coastal erosion. 2.2 Paragraph 17 of the NPPF contains a set of core land-use planning principles that should underpin both plan making and decision taking. In particular it states that planning should: proactively drive and support sustainable economic development to deliver the homes, business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country needs. Every effort should be made objectively to identify and then meet the housing, business and other development needs of an area, and respond positively to wider opportunities for growth. Plans should take account of market signals, such as land prices and housing affordability, and set out a clear strategy for allocating sufficient land which is suitable for development in their area, taking account of the needs of the residential and business communities; BIR

4 2.3 In relation to housing and the preparation of Local Plans, paragraph 159 from the NPPF sates that local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and should: prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which: - meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; - addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes);34 and - caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand; 2.4 The importance of local planning authorities assessing their full housing needs is referred to in paragraph 47 from the NPPF. In order to boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should: use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this Framework, including identifying key sites which are critical to the delivery of the housing strategy over the plan period; 2.5 Paragraph 182 of the NPPF outlines that the Local Plan will be examined by an independent inspector whose role is to assess whether the plan has been prepared in accordance with the Duty to Cooperate, legal and procedural requirements, and whether it is sound. The term sound is defined as a plan which is: BIR

5 Positively prepared the plan should be prepared based on a strategy which seeks to meet objectively assessed development and infrastructure requirements, including unmet requirements from neighbouring authorities where it is reasonable to do so and consistent with achieving sustainable development; Justified the plan should be the most appropriate strategy, when considered against the reasonable alternatives, based on proportionate evidence; Effective the plan should be deliverable over its period and based on effective joint working on cross boundary strategic priorities; and Consistent with national policy the plan should enable the delivery of sustainable development in accordance with the policies in the framework. Housing and Growth Ministerial Statement 6 th September The most recent document produced by the Government is the Housing and Growth Ministerial Statement. This statement explains that the number one priority is to get the economy growing. It acknowledges that the need for new homes is acute and supply remains constrained. The statement stresses the need to get more homes built and to have a planning system that works proactively to support the growth the Country needs. 2.7 As the statement points out, whilst power is in the hands of communities with this power comes responsibility responsibility to meet their needs for development and growth and to deal quickly and effectively with proposals that will deliver homes, jobs and services. 2.8 There is clear and repeated reference in the NPPF to the importance of objectively assessing the evidence of housing need which will inform plan making. This concept of objectivity in understanding and describing the housing need of a local authority area is, we contend, of fundamental importance to the proper exercise of the plan making function. Plan making by local planning authorities involves choices and decisions informed by local circumstances, and in accordance with the policies in the NPPF. But in order for these choices and decisions to be soundly made the evidence on which they are based must be objectively derived. 2.9 In our view, objectivity in relation to assessing housing need means the use of population and household projections, taking account of migration and demographic BIR

6 change in accordance with paragraph 159 of the NPPF. To be truly objective, the projections of population and household change produced by the ONS and DCLG should be used and a SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing to meet these projections. BIR

7 3. DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 3.1 The chapter presents demographic contextual data (i.e. population, households, natural change and migration) for the study area of South Worcestershire, comprising the three Local Authorities of Malvern Hills District, Worcester City and Wychavon District within the relevant period set by the emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan (2006 to 2030). Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2010-based Subnational Population Projections (SNPP) 3.2 The latest SNPP for Malvern Hills District projects an average population growth in the order of 296 people a year from 2006 to 2030 (24 years) from the 2010 Based SNPP. This is an increase when compared to the annual average in the previous 15 years between 1991 and 2006 (15 years) of 260 people a year. This latter projection (2010 Based) anticipates a total population increase of 7,100 between 2006 and See Table 1 Table 1: ONS Population Estimates and Projections for Malvern Hills District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based 3,900/260pa 5,600/280pa 7,100/296pa 2008 Based 3,900/260pa 7,100/355pa 8,600/358pa 2006 Based 3,900/260pa 8,700/435pa 10,400/433pa 2004 (Rev) Based 3,800/253pa 5,900/295pa Based 4,900/327pa 9,400/470pa - Source: Office for National Statistics BIR

8 3.3 The 2010 Based SNPP for Worcester City projects a population growth in the order of 471 people per annum between 2006 to 2030 (24 years), a decrease when compared to the annual average of circa 673 people per annum between 1991 and 2006 (15 years). The 2010 SNPP projects a significantly higher population growth between 2006 and 2030 when compared to earlier data releases. See Table 2. Table 2: ONS Population Estimates and Projections for Worcester City Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based 10,100/673pa 9,600/480pa 11,300/471pa 2008 Based 10,100/673pa 5,700/285pa 6,800/283pa 2006 Based 10,100/673pa 6,800/340pa 8,200/342pa 2004 (Rev) Based 9,600/640pa 3,300/165pa Based 11,300/753pa 7,500/375pa - Source: Office for National Statistics 3.4 The latest SNPP for Wychavon District has projected an average population growth in the order of 592 people per annum from 2006 to 2030 (24 years) from the 2010 based projections, which is a population increase of 14,200 between 2006 and See Table 3. Table 3: ONS Population Estimates and Projections for Wychavon District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based 14,400/960pa 12,000/600pa 14,200/ 592pa 2008 Based 14,400/960pa 9,400/470pa 11,300/471pa 2006 Based 14,400/960pa 17,000/850pa 19,900/829pa BIR

9 2004 (Rev) Based 14,800/987pa 13,700/685pa Based 15,600/1,040pa 14,900/745pa - Source: Office for National Statistics 3.5 Table 4 below shows the latest SNPP for South Worcestershire as a whole and projects an average population growth in the order of 1,359 people per annum from 2006 to 2030 (24 years) from the 2010 based projections, which is a population increase of 32,600 between 2006 and Table 4: ONS Population Estimates and Projections for South Worcestershire Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based 28,400/1,893pa 27,200/1,360pa 32,600/1,359pa 2008 Based 28,400/1,893pa 22,200/1,100 26,700/1,112pa 2006 Based 28,400/1,893pa 32,500/1,625pa 38,500/1,604pa 2004 (Rev) Based 28,200/1,880pa 22,900/1.145pa Based 31,800/2,120pa 31,800/1,590pa - Source: Tables 1,2,3 Department of Community and Local Government (CLG) 2008-based Subnational Household Projections (SNHP) 3.6 The latest SNHP for Malvern Hills District projects an annual average of 292 households per annum between 2006 and 2030 (24 years) (2008 Based SNHP). Given that the emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan suggests a housing requirement of 4,900 dwellings across the District over the period 2006 to 2030 (24 years), there is immediate concern as the emerging Development Plan figure is less than the 2008 (7,000) and 2006 (9,000) Based SNHP total number of households by 2030 and therefore there is concern not all arising households would be provided for, particularly given that the projection figure would need to be converted from households into dwellings. See Table 5. BIR

10 Table 5: CLG Household Estimates and Projections for Malvern Hills District Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based Based 3,000/200pa 7,000/292pa 2006 Based 3,000/200pa 9,000/375pa 2004 (Rev) Based 3,000/200pa Based 4,000/267pa Based 4,000/267pa - Source: Communities and Local Government 3.7 The latest SNHP for Worcester City projects an annual average of 250 households per annum between 2006 and 2030 (24 years) (2008 Based SNHP). This gives a total of 6,000 households over the 24 years between 2006 and The South Worcestershire Development Plan suggests a housing requirement of 9,400 dwellings for the Wider Worcester Area with 5,500 dwellings specifically within Worcester City over the period 2006 to The Worcester City figure of 5,500 dwellings is less than the 2008 and 2006 based SNHP total number of households by 2030 which are 6,000 and 8,000 respectively. There is therefore some concern that not all arising households would not be provided for, particularly given that the projection figure would need to be converted from households into dwellings. Table 6: CLG Household Estimates and Projections for Worcester City Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based Based 7,000/467pa 6,000/250pa BIR

11 2006 Based 7,000/467pa 8,000/333pa 2004 (Rev) Based 7,000/467pa Based 8,000/533pa Based 8,000/533pa - Source: Communities and Local Government 3.8 The latest SNHP for Wychavon projects an annual average of 416 households per annum between 2006 and 2030 (24 years) (2008 Based SNHP). This equates to 10,000 households over the plan period (2006 to 2030). The emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan suggests a housing requirement of 8,900 dwellings across the District over the period 2006 to 2030 (24 years). Again, this suggested Development Plan figure is lower than both the 2008 (10,000) and 2006 (14,000) Based SNHP total number of households by 2030 and there is therefore concern not all arising households would not be provided for. See Table 7. Table 7: CLG Household Estimates and Projections for Wychavon District Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based Based 9,000/600pa 10,000/416pa 2006 Based 9,000/600pa 14,000/583pa 2004 (Rev) Based 9,000/600pa Based 10,000/667pa Based 10,000/667pa - Source: Communities and Local Government 3.9 Table 8 below shows the SNHP for South Worcestershire which projects an annual average of 958 households per annum between 2006 and 2030 (24 years) (2008 Based SNHP). This equates to 23,000 households over the plan period (2006 to 2030). However, this does not equate to a dwelling requirement as factors such as vacancies, an allowance for second homes and the need to include a figure to deal with un-met need as set out in the Council s SHMA need to be added. BIR

12 Table 8: CLG Household Estimates and Projections for South Worcestershire Based Based (Rev) Based Based Based Based 19,000/727pa 23,000/958pa 2006 Based 19,000/727pa 31,000/1,291pa 2004 (Rev) Based 19,000/727pa Based 22,000/1,467pa Based 22,000/1,467pa - Source: Tables 5,6,7 ONS Estimates and Projections of Natural Change 3.10 Natural change is one of the inputs of population change. The natural change statistics for Malvern Hills and Wychavon (Tables 9 and 11) show that the population increase does not stem from natural population change as set out in earlier tables. For Worcester City (Table 10) the natural change statistics show that an element of population increase can be attributed to natural change. Table 12 shows the natural change statistics for South Worcestershire as a whole and shows that natural change has very little impact on the population increase across the Development Plan area. Table 9: ONS Natural Change Estimates and Projections Malvern Hills District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics BIR

13 Table 10: ONS Natural Change Estimates and Projections Worcester City Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics Table 11: ONS Natural Change Estimates and Projections Wychavon District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics Table 12: ONS Natural Change Estimates & Projections South Worcestershire Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Tables 9, 10, 11 BIR

14 ONS Estimates of Net Migration 3.11 Net migration is one of the inputs of population change. Table 13 identifies levels of migration since 2000 for the three Local Authorities and South Worcestershire as a whole. Table 13: ONS Estimate of Net Migration and Other Change in South Worcestershire Malvern Hills Worcester City Wychavon South Worcestershire Annual Average Annual Average Malvern Hills Worcester City Wychavon South Worcestershire Source: Office for National Statistics 3.12 When examining the annual average figures for Malvern Hills, over the past ten years net migration has annually averaged 700 people. More recently over the last five years the annual average has remained at 700 people per annum For Worcester, over the past ten years net migration has averaged -300 people per year. Over the last five years net migration averaged -200 people per year Finally for Wychavon, the past ten year net migration average is 500 people per year. This has decreased to 300 people per year over the last five years In South Worcestershire as a whole, the past ten year net migration average is 900 people per year which has decreased slightly over the last five years to 800 people per year which is due to the reduced Migration over the last five years in Wychavon. BIR

15 ONS Projections of Net Migration 3.16 Migration projections, which form part of the SNPP, are calculated using migration propensities by age from one area to another. The data is summarised in Tables 14, 15 and Table 14 identifies that if recent propensities are to be maintained within Malvern Hills, according to the 2010 Based SNPP annual net migration will continue to increase and reach 1,000 from 2030, despite a decrease of 100 between 2006 and This is also the case according to the earlier 2008 Based and 2006 Based SNPP. Table 14: ONS Migration Estimates and Projections (Annual Figures) Malvern Hills District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics 3.18 Table 15 identifies that if recent propensities are to be maintained within Worcester, according to the 2010 SNPP it is projected that annual net migration will remain negative, anticipated to go from -300 in 2006 to -100 in Throughout the plan period it is not projected to rise above 0 people per annum. Table 15: ONS Migration Estimates and Projections (Annual Figures) Worcester City Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics BIR

16 3.19 Table 16 identifies that if recent propensities are to be maintained within Wychavon, according to the 2010 Based ONS SNPP annual net migration increases between 2010 and 2012 from 500 to 800 net migrants per annum. From 2021 onwards the projection reaches the highest level of 800 in 2021 whereas the 2008 Based projection does not reach the highest level until The 2010 and 2008 SNPP projections show lower levels of projected migration levels than the previous projections which do not go below 800 net migrants per annum. Table 16: ONS Migration Estimates and Projections (Annual Figures) Wychavon District Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics 3.20 Table 17 below identifies that if recent propensities are to be maintained within South Worcestershire, according to the 2010 Based ONS SNPP annual net migration steadily increases between 2011 and 2030, hitting a peak of 1,700 net migrants per annum in Table 17: ONS Migration Estimates and Projections (Annual Figures) South Worcestershire Based Based Based (Rev) Based Based Source: Office for National Statistics 3.21 To conclude in respect of the demographic context, this chapter has demonstrated that the population of the three Local Authorities comprising the South Worcestershire Development Plan area is projected to continue to increase as is the number of households. In the case of Malvern Hills and Wychavon, the majority of BIR

17 the population change is due to migration rather than natural change. Natural change alone would result in a decline in population in Malvern Hills and no growth at all in Wychavon. Worcester projections show growth through natural change throughout the plan period, but the City is a slight net exporter of population throughout the plan period. BIR

18 4. CHELMER POPULATION AND HOUSING MODEL 4.1 This chapter summarises the projections generated by the Chelmer Population and Housing Model (Chelmer Model). The Chelmer Model is a demographic regional housing model that can produce forecasts for specific local areas. It is based on population projections methodology allowing the projection of natural changes (births and deaths) and the projection of migrants into and out of an area. The projection population (by age and gender) is converted into household projections by the application of projected household formation rates. Household projections are then converted into dwellings, but this is only principally in respect of vacancies and does not therefore include for other important factors such as second homes and un-met need, (defined in this instance in the Worcestershire SHMA 2012). This dwelling figure is therefore a robust and valid starting point but does not purport to represent a housing requirement to meet the full, objectively assessed needs as set out in the NPPF. 4.2 The underlying data sets used in the Chelmer Model are set out in full within Appendix A. In summary, the data include: Mid Year Population Estimates to 2010 (published by ONS); 2008 Based Sub National Population Projections (published by ONS); 2008 Based Sub National Household Projections (published by Department of Communities and Local Government); 2010 Based National Population Projections and earlier versions (published by ONS, and previously by the Government s Actuary Department); and Internal Migration Estimates by Local Authority to 2010 (published by ONS). 4.3 Please note the underlying data used for activity rates has now been updated to the 2011 census and have been incorporated into this model. 4.4 In total four differing scenarios have been tested, which include three unconstrained runs and one constrained runs. The unconstrained runs (historic demographic trends are projected forward and implications are accommodated) consist of 2010 Based BIR

19 sub national population projections (SNPP), validation of 2008 SNPP; and zero net migration. The constrained scenario (where a factor is fixed and the structure of population is modelled to be consistent) is a dwelling led run based on the emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan dwelling requirements over the plan period 2006 to Each scenario is explained further below Based Sub-national Population Projections (unconstrained) 4.5 This scenario forecasts the population, household and dwelling growth using the ONS 2010-based sub-national population projections, the most up to date data available. 4.6 The key figures from the model output sheets (one for each Local Authority), specifically the growth in population, labour force, household and dwellings between 2006 and 2030, are summarised in Table 18 below. The model output sheets are enclosed as Appendix B. Table 18: 2010 Based Population Projections from 2006 to 2030 for South Worcestershire Population Growth Labour Force Growth Household Growth Dwelling Growth Malvern Hills Worcester Wychavon South Worcestershire Source: Appendix B 4.7 The 2010 Based SNPP is the most up to date population projection data available. This shows a projected increase in population of 7,620 in Malvern Hills, 11,380 in Worcester City and 15,060 in Wychavon over the period 2006 to These figures are broadly consistent with Table 1, 2 and 3 within the demographic context section. Table 18 above shows an overall increase in population of 34,060 in South Worcestershire over the plan period. 4.8 The 2010 Based SNPP shows an overall requirement of 26,427 dwellings over the 3 Local Authority areas over the plan period to accommodate the increase in BIR

20 population. As noted above this figure is a robust starting point for determining an appropriate housing requirement. 4.9 With regards the labour force, Table 18 shows that based on the level of population projected by the 2010 Based SNPP, the labour force will decrease significantly in Malvern Hills and Worcester (-4,363 and -2,383 respectively) and rise by 2,721 in Wychavon. Overall therefore the labour force will decrease by 4,025 between 2006 and This is due to both a higher growth in older age groups in particular over 65 and above and a decrease in the working population aged between 35 and A significant decrease in labour force could have severe implications on the economic output of the South Worcestershire area. If there is a policy preference for balancing jobs growth and dwellings, based on the most up to date population projections the number of dwellings to be provided across the South Worcestershire area should be greater than the 26,427 indicated by the model The output sheets identify that the annual average level of migration included within the projection is 528 for Malvern Hills and 488 for Wychavon. The migration levels in Worcester are negative at an average of -51 per annum. Validation of 2008 Based Population Projections (unconstrained) 4.12 This scenario forecasts the population, household and dwelling growth based on levels of net migration as projected by ONS. It essentially validates the model against the ONS 2008 Based SNHP The key figures from the model output sheets (one for each Local Authority), specifically the growth in population, labour force, household and dwellings between 2006 and 2030, are summarised in Table 19 below. The model output sheets are enclosed as Appendix C When comparing the household growth in Table 19 with the 2008 Based SNHP, identified in Tables 4, 5 and 6, the projected growth in households is consistent (when rounded in 1000s). BIR

21 Table 19: 2008 Based Population Projections from 2006 to 2030 for South Worcestershire Population Growth Labour Force Growth Household Growth Dwelling Growth Malvern Hills Worcester Wychavon South Worcestershire Source: Appendix C 4.15 The important point with regard to this scenario is that it validates the Chelmer Model runs as the projected household growth arising from use of the 2008-based SNPP is the same as those produced by the DCLG figures themselves, 23,000 rounded. This therefore gives us a very high level of confidence that the projections produced using the 2010-based SNPP are robust and credible The projected dwelling growth, between 2006 and 2030 is 7,383 for Malvern Hills, 6,388 for Worcester City and 9,972 for Wychavon. Overall Table 15 shows a dwelling growth of 23,743 which is 2,684 less than the dwelling growth projected by the 2010 based scenario In addition, the Chelmer Model provides forecasts of the total labour force throughout the plan period (difference from 2006 to 2030). Based on the 2008 Based SNHP it is projected that the labour force will decrease by 8,427. This is more than double the decrease projected by the 2010 based scenario and is based on changes in the age profile of the Districts and a smaller overall population growth projection. This illustrates the greater damage to economic prospects if the 2008-based SNPP are used to project dwelling requirements The output sheets identify that the annual average level of migration included within the 2008 based projection is 575 for Malvern Hills and 409 for Wychavon. The average level of migration for Worcester City is negative at -211 per annum. BIR

22 Zero Net Migration (unconstrained) 4.19 The Chelmer Model has the facility to vary projected levels of net migration. This scenario forecasts the population, household and dwelling growth based on zero net migration in the three Local Authorities (i.e. the same number of people entering or leaving Malvern Hills, Worcester and Wychavon within the plan period). It is a theoretical exercise that projects the population, households and dwellings for the indigenous population mainly. The only possible factor altering the total population is natural change (births and mortality) The key figures from the model output are summarised in Table 20 below. The model is enclosed as Appendix D. Table 20: Zero Net Migration from 2006 to 2030 for South Worcestershire Population Growth Labour Force Growth Household Growth Dwelling Growth Malvern Hills Worcester Wychavon South Worcestershire Source: Appendix D 4.21 As set out above, the total change in population without migration is -3,709 in Malvern Hill, 11,029 in Worcester and -64 in Wychavon, giving an overall increase in population of 7,256 across the South Worcestershire area. When compared with the 2008 and 2010 based scenarios the overall figure without migration (as shown in Table 20) is 20,544 less than the population increase projected by the 2008 based scenario and 26,804 less than the population increase projected by the 2010 based scenario In terms of the impact upon the number of households and dwellings, these forecasts have also decreased to 12,042 households and 12,278 dwellings across South Worcestershire when net migration is fixed to zero In terms of the impact upon labour force within the plan period (difference from 2006 to 2030), with zero net migration the labour force decreases by 19,721. When comparing this figure with the 2008 and 2010 based population projections for labour BIR

23 force there are 11,294 and 15,696 less people respectively contributing to South Worcestershire s economy It is clear therefore, that net migration is making a significant contribution to the work force in the area. Should the South Worcestershire Development Plan fail to provide dwellings for the new additional migrants, the full economic potential of the District will be considerably restricted It should be noted that if net migration is not catered for there will be additional pressure on local housing markets. There are no mechanisms to prevent migration from occurring between areas of the UK. Restricting the supply of housing will reduce opportunities for local households to acquire homes on the open market. It is therefore important that migration is properly provided for to prevent local indigenous households from being disadvantaged As highlighted above, testing zero net migration is a theoretical exercise to examine the factors, such as natural change and migration, which affect the population, households and dwellings. The natural change figures show a higher mortality rate than birth rate and a negative average natural change rate in Malvern Hills and Wychavon, as such without migration into these Districts there would be a negative population growth. Clearly there are severe undesirable economic and social implications of this. Emerging South Worcestershire Development Plan Dwelling Requirements (constrained) 4.27 The Chelmer Model has the facility to fix or constrain a factor (such as dwellings, households or population) and the population profile is modelled to be consistent with achieving the fixed/ constrained factor. For this particular scenario, the number of dwellings has been fixed/ constrained to follow the emerging Development Plan dwelling requirements, as identified in the South Worcestershire Development Plan. This scenario, therefore, tests the sensitivity and identifies the demographic consequences of providing for the number of dwellings put forward for each Local Authority. BIR

24 4.28 The key figures from the model output sheets (one for each Local Authority), specifically the growth in population, labour force, household and dwellings between 2006 and 2026, are summarised in Table 21 below. The model output sheets are enclosed as Appendix E. Table 21: Emerging Development Plan Dwelling Requirements from 2006 to 2030 for South Worcestershire Population Growth Labour Force Growth Household Growth Dwelling Growth Malvern Hills Worcester Wychavon South Worcestershire Source: Appendix E 4.29 As set out above, providing 23,200 dwellings overall results in a total growth in population of 22,193 and growth in households of 22,585. When examining the difference in population compared with the unconstrained scenarios, the population growth has reduced by 11,867 and the household growth has reduced by 3,106 when compared against the 2010 Based SNPP. Malvern Hills in particular sees significant decline in population over the plan period. This reduction in population growth across all local authority areas is due to the level of net migration and natural change decreasing as a consequence of insufficient housing provision In terms on the impact upon labour force on the basis of the emerging dwelling requirement, the labour force decreases by 11,816 people in this dwelling led scenario. When comparing this figure (-11,816) with the 2008 based scenario (-8,427) and 2010 based scenario (-4,025) there is a considerable restriction on labour force growth. It is clear that the positive net migration is making a significant contribution to the work force. Should the South Worcestershire Development Plan fail to provide dwellings for the net additional migrants, the full economic potential of the area will not be achieved. A consequence of there being insufficient labour is that businesses may choose to relocate elsewhere, where there is a more suitable population. In addition, commuting into the District is likely to increase in order to fill the gap in the indigenous labour market, neither of which are favourable outcomes and should not be planned for. BIR

25 5. CONCLUSION 5.1 This report has demonstrated that there is a clear and compelling need to review the housing requirement for South Worcestershire in light of the evidence presented. 5.2 As set out in Chapter 2, the policy context requires that up to date evidence is used to determine current and future needs and demands for housing, taking into consideration migration and demographic change. 5.3 The demographic context, in accordance with national policy, is explained within Chapter 3 and identifies a projected increase in population of 32,600 between 2006 and 2030 for the South Worcestershire Development Plan area (Malvern Hills, Wychavon and Worcester City) based on the most up to date 2010-based SNPP. 5.4 Projections generated by the Chelmer Model, which are underpinned by the data identified in the demographic context, are reviewed in Chapter 4 (with model output sheets attached as Appendices). The 2010 Based SNPP run projects that a total of 26,427 dwellings are required between 2006 and 2030 and the 2008 Based Sub- National Population Projections run projects that a total of 23,743 dwellings are required between 2006 and 2030 to provide for both indigenous population and forecast migration levels. Taking migration out of the equation, the zero net migration run reduces the dwelling requirement to 12,278 dwellings between 2006 and When reviewing a dwelling led scenario to test sensitivity of providing for the level of housing growth set out within adopted an emerging Development Plan, it is clear that there are adverse social and economic consequences of under providing dwellings to meet with arising needs and demands. 5.5 The Chelmer Model projection based on the most up to date evidence is the run derived from the ONS 2010-based Sub-National Population Projections. It does not account for any back-log or un-met housings needs identified in an appropriate assessment of local housing needs, nor an allowance for second homes, an issue of particular importance in parts of the study area. When appropriate allowance is made for these additional factors, an objective assessment of housing needs for South Worcestershire, in accordance with the NPPF, can be derived. In addition, the figure BIR

26 of 26,427 dwellings over the period will result in a decline in the labour force of 4,363 persons. The negative implications of this should be carefully considered in arriving at a housing requirement for South Worcestershire over the plan period. Table 22: Chelmer Population and Household Forecast (2006 to 2030): Summary of Scenarios for Malvern Hills District Population Total Labour Force Total Households Total Dwellings 2010 SNPP SNPP Zero Net Migration Dwelling Led (emerging SWDP) Source: Appendix B, C, D, E Table 23: Chelmer Population and Household Forecast (2006 to 2030): Summary of Scenarios for Worcester City Population Total Labour Force Total Households Total Dwellings 2010 SNPP SNPP Zero Net Migration Dwelling Led (emerging SWDP) Source: Appendix B, C, D, E Table 24: Chelmer Population and Household Forecast (2006 to 2030): Summary of Scenarios for Wychavon District Population Total Labour Force Total Households Total Dwellings 2010 SNPP SNPP Zero Net Migration Dwelling Led (emerging SWDP) Source: Appendix B, C, D, E BIR

27 Table 25: Chelmer Population and Household Forecast (2006 to 2030): Summary of Scenarios for South Worcestershire Population Total Labour Force Total Households Total Dwellings 2010 SNPP 34,060-4,025 25,691 26, SNPP 27,800-8,427 23,046 23,743 Zero Net Migration 7,256-19,721 12,042 12,278 Dwelling Led (emerging SWDP) 22,193-11,816 22,585 23,200 Source: Appendix B, C, D, E 5.6 All of which leads to the compelling conclusion that using the robust methodology of the Chelmer Model the dwelling requirement of 23,200 is inadequate based on the most up to date population projections available. It is considered that an increased dwelling target should be provided in order to ensure that South Worcestershire is in the best position to meet arising needs and demands for the projected population, and the starting point should be the base figure of 26,427 dwellings. BIR

28 BIR APPENDIX A

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