BIRMINGHAM SUB-REGIONAL HOUSING STUDY

Transcription

1 BIRMINGHAM SUB-REGIONAL HOUSING STUDY January 2013

2 BIRMINGHAM SUB-REGIONAL HOUSING STUDY Barton Willmore LLP The Observatory Southfleet Road Ebbsfleet Dartford Kent DA10 0DF Tel: Ref: 21856/A5/DU/mg Fax: Date: January 2013 COPYRIGHT The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole, or in part, without the written consent of Barton Willmore LLP. All Barton Willmore stationery is produced using recycled or FSC paper and vegetable oil based inks.

3 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Contents CONTENTS PAGE NO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION SETTING THE CONTEXT MAKING THE CASE FOR GROWTH NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT REGIONAL POLICY CONTEXT LOCAL POLICY CONTEXT HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS CRITICAL REVIEW OF EVIDENCE BASE HOUSING REQUIREMENT FORECASTS CONCLUSIONS 53 APPENDICES 1. HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS: DETAILED LOCAL AUTHORITY LEVEL PROJECTIONS 2. POPGROUP MODEL OUTPUT BIRMINGHAM 3. POPGROUP MODEL OUTPUT REDDITCH 4. POPGROUP MODEL OUTPUT BROMSGROVE 5. POPGROUP MODEL OUTPUT SOLIHULL

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5 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. This Study has been prepared on behalf of key housebuilders and developers with land interests in the West Midlands to comprehensively assess housing requirements within Birmingham and the wider surrounds. 2. The Study provides a detailed assessment of housing requirements within the Birmingham Metropolitan Core area (Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Redditch and Solihull). In addition and in order to provide a comprehensive assessment of the wider Sub-Region, the Study also incorporates the housing targets of surrounding local authorities, including Dudley, Sandwell, Lichfield, North Warwickshire, Redditch, Tamworth and Walsall. Each of these authorities contribute economic participants within the Birmingham travel to work area The Study has been commissioned following concerns that the housing targets being progressed by each of the local authorities within the area are inadequate, and will harm the area s ability to realise economic growth in line with expectations, along with its ability to meet future affordable and demographic need. This is the first opportunity that each of the local authorities have had to establish long term housing requirements, following publication of the NPPF, and it is essential that they are robust, positive and integrated to ensure gains across the three key dimensions of sustainability (i.e. economic, social and environmental). 4. To place this in context the Government s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requires that local authorities ensure their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing. The NPPF is clear in its requirement that local authorities should ensure their Local Plan housing targets meet population and household projections, taking account of migration and demographic change. Furthermore to ensure the economic objectives of the NPPF are achieved, local authorities must work closely with the business community to understand their changing needs and identify and address barriers to investment, which includes housing. 5. The Metropolitan Core area of Birmingham (Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Solihull, and Redditch) is a key driver of regional economic growth. The number of workforce jobs is projected to grow by 172,000 over the next 20 years; however this level of growth is likely to be exceeded as a result of Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) interventions designed to stimulate growth in target 1 As defined by the 2001 Census 21856/A5/DU/mg 1 January 2013

6 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Executive Summary sectors. The housing provision proposed in emerging Local Plans must ensure this projected economic growth is not stymied. 6. The starting point for considering housing requirements are the most recent CLG 2008-based household projections (November 2010) which show cumulative growth of 5,350 households per annum (hhpa) ( ) for the four local authorities of the Birmingham Metropolitan Core. This exceeds the cumulative provision planned for in the emerging Local Plans (4,927 dwellings per annum dpa). However the CLG projection is underpinned by the ONS 2008-based sub national population projection (SNPP) which has since been updated by the ONS interim based SNPP (September 2012). 7. The ONS interim 2011-based SNPP shows 15% higher population growth than the ONS based SNPP. In the absence of updated CLG household projections (expected in early 2013) we have utilised the POPGROUP demographic forecasting model to project the number of new households the latest ONS interim 2011-based SNPP would create, and the number of dwellings required to accommodate these households. The scenario shows a requirement for 129,161 new dwellings (6,458 dpa), , a significant increase (31%) from the provision planned for by the emerging Local Plans. It should be noted that Central Government projections are policyneutral and do not consider economic growth aspirations. 8. The most up-to-date Experian economic forecasts (November 2012) show cumulative growth of 6,088 new jobs per annum, , in the Birmingham Metropolitan Core area. The POPGROUP model has therefore been used to project the number of dwellings required to balance resident labour force growth with the projected job growth. The scenario shows a requirement for 125,693 new dwellings (6,285 dpa), , a significant increase (28%) from the provision planned for by the emerging Local Plans. 9. The implications of the cumulative Birmingham Metropolitan Core Councils proposed housing targets (4,927 dpa) is also modelled using POPGROUP. The results show net out-migration of - 82,812 people, (-4,141 people per annum), will be created, a significant increase from the long-term ( ) trend (-700 people per annum) and short-term ( ) trend (-900 people per annum). More recently the trend over the past three years has been for net in-migration to the area (800 people per annum). 10. The high level of net out-migration resulting from the Councils proposed housing targets would result in population growth of only 7,192 people per annum, significantly lower than the most 21856/A5/DU/mg 2 January 2013

7 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Executive Summary up-to-date ONS interim 2011-based SNPP (10,990 people per annum). In turn the resident labour force would grow by only 2,484 people per annum, resulting in significant levels of incommuting to fill the 6,088 new jobs per annum forecast by Experian, and conflicting with the sustainability objectives underpinning National and Local Planning Policy. 11. The NPPF requires Local Planning Authorities to publish an up-to-date Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) to set out the evidence underpinning their proposed housing target. Birmingham City Council (October 2012) have a recently published SHMA, and the Worcestershire SHMA addresses Bromsgrove and Redditch Council (February 2012). Solihull Borough Council s SHMA does not have a publication date, however the most up-to-date ONS SNPP at the time of publication were the 2006-based series (May 2008) suggesting the SHMA is out-of-date. A recent Core Strategy Examination in Public (EiP) decision 2 considered a SHMA published in 2008 to be outdated, resulting in suspension of the EiP. Moreover, the most up-todate ONS interim 2011-based SNPP are not considered in any of the SHMAs. 12. The scenarios for dwelling growth set out in the Birmingham and Worcestershire SHMAs contradict each of the emerging Local Plan housing targets. The Birmingham SHMA suggests minimum growth of 96,100 new households (4,805 hh per annum) based on migration trends. This is significantly higher than the proposed housing target (4,000 dpa) set out in the emerging Local Plan. Likewise the Worcestershire SHMA suggests a hypothetical demographic-led dwelling target for Bromsgrove ( dpa) significantly in excess of the emerging Local Plan (267 dpa), and a range for Redditch ( dpa) significantly in excess of the emerging Local Plan target (160 dpa). The Solihull SHMA is considered to be outdated for the reasons given above. However it fails to consider any demographic or economic-led scenarios. The emerging Solihull Local Plan does however acknowledge that the proposed housing target (500 dpa) falls short of the 2008-based CLG household projection (636 hh per annum). 13. To summarise, Table 1 (below) sets out the key projections considered in this report, and the recommendations for future growth for the four Birmingham Metropolitan Core authorities. 2 Paragraph 6, Examination of East Hampshire District Local Plan: Joint Core Strategy, Letter from Anthony Thickett (Planning Inspector) to East Hampshire District Council, 23 November /A5/DU/mg 3 January 2013

8 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Executive Summary Table 1: Future Dwelling Growth in the Birmingham Metropolitan Core Emerging Local Plan (dpa) SHMA (recommended range, dpa) POPGROUP Recommended Target (dpa)** Birmingham 4,000 4,805 6,100 4,990 Bromsgrove Redditch Solihull * 1,111 Birmingham Met Core 4,927 5,882 7,330 6,882 *Proposed housing target: SHMA contains no demographic or economic-led scenarios; **Birmingham Demographic-led scenario; Bromsgrove, Redditch and Solihull Economic-led scenario. 14. As set out in Table 1 (above), the recommended level of dwelling provision has been informed by the economic-led POPGROUP scenario which establishes the number of dwellings required to balance resident labour force growth with the most up-to-date Experian projection. The exception is Birmingham City Council, where the demographic-led requirement is recommended. This is due to the demographic-led requirement exceeding the economic-led requirement in the case of Birmingham. It has been established through a number of Core Strategy examinations that in such instances demographic-led requirement is the minimum requirement which should be met in full /A5/DU/mg 4 January 2013

9 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Introduction 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This Study has been prepared on behalf of key developers with land interest in the West Midlands to comprehensively assess housing requirements within Birmingham and the wider surrounds. 1.2 The Study assesses housing requirements within Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Redditch and Solihull. In order to provide a comprehensive assessment of the wider Sub-Region, the Study also incorporates the housing targets of surrounding local authorities, including Dudley, Sandwell, Lichfield, North Warwickshire, Redditch, Tamworth and Walsall. Each of these authorities contribute economic participants within the Birmingham travel to work area The Study has been commissioned following concerns that the housing targets being progressed by each of the local authorities within the area are grossly inadequate, and will harm the area s ability to realise economic growth in line with expectations, along with its ability to meet future affordable and demographic need. This is the first opportunity that each of the local authorities have had to establish long term housing requirements, following publication of the NPPF, and it is essential that they are robust, positive and integrated to ensure gains across the three key dimensions of sustainability (i.e. economic, social and environmental). 1.4 The report is prepared on behalf of a client group, including the following: Barratt & David Wilson Homes (trading name of BDW Trading Ltd); Bovis Homes Ltd; Church Commissioners for England; and Taylor Wimpey Midlands. 1.5 The purpose of the Study is to assist the emerging Local Plan strategies of Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Redditch and Solihull by providing a joint industry submission that represents a common view amongst those who will ultimately deliver the majority of the area s housing supply over the emerging Plan periods. This ensures clarity and consistency in the emerging Local Plan process and demonstrates the wide-spread concern of housebuilders over the approach that the local authorities have taken towards their future housing requirements to date. 3 As defined by the 2001 Census 21856/A5/DU/mg 5 January 2013

10 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Introduction 1.6 The main outcome will be an assessment of the adequacy of the proposed housing targets at a local authority level and a Sub-Regional level in the context of the economic growth aspirations of each authority and the Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), as well as the NPPF s requirement that local authorities meet objectively assessed need. 1.7 The report is structured as follows: Section 2: Setting the Context Making the Case for Economic Growth Section 3: National Policy context; Section 4: Regional Policy Context; Section 5: Local Policy Context - Birmingham; - Bromsgrove; - Redditch; - Solihull; and - Surrounding Local Authorities. Section 6: Household Demographics Section 7: Critical Review of the Evidence Base Section 8: Housing Requirement Forecasts; Section 9: Conclusions 21856/A5/DU/mg 6 January 2013

11 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context 2.0 SETTING THE CONTEXT SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS The Metropolitan Core of Birmingham is a key driver of regional economic growth. The number of workforce jobs is projected to grow by 172,000 over the next 20 years; however this level of growth is likely to be exceeded as a result of Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) interventions designed to stimulate growth in target sectors. Whilst the LEPs have a handle on measures that will stimulate accelerated economic growth, such as investment in infrastructure and business support, the capacity to accommodate growth in the resident labour force across the travel to work area (TTWA) remains an unresolved issue. This section provides an overview of the TTWA and its economic growth prospects in order to inform the housing numbers debate. i) Birmingham TTWA 2.1 Birmingham travel to work area (TTWA) comprises 10 adjoining districts (see Table 1) from which most of Birmingham s labour supply is drawn and within which 90% of employed residents live and work. Birmingham itself is England and Wales largest local authority district and the UKs second largest city with over 1 million inhabitants and half a million jobs. 2.2 Located at the centre of the national motorway network and benefiting from both an international airport and fast mainline rail connections to other major UK centres, Birmingham is an accessible, significant regional commercial centre with a strong international profile. 2.3 Most of the TTWA is covered by the Greater Birmingham and Solihull (GBS) LEP area and the Black Country (BC) LEP area, both of which extend beyond the Birmingham TTWA boundaries. The full picture of LEP areas and their relationship with the TTWA is presented at Figure 1 and Table At the heart of the Birmingham TTWA is an urbanised area that includes the Birmingham and Solihull Metropolitan Core (on the GBS LEP side) and the Black Country districts of Walsall Sandwell and Dudley (on the BC LEP side). Taken together, the latest Experian local market 21856/A5/DU/mg 7 January 2013

12 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context forecasts project workforce job growth of 172,000 between 2011 and 2031 of which 94,000 will be created in Birmingham. ii) LEP Priorities 2.5 In fact, the adopted BC LEP area Joint Core Strategy (JCS) is planning for job growth of 90,000 by 2026, considerably higher than the Experian forecasts, which project Black Country job growth of 72,000 by The JCS job target is a clear expression of BC LEPs aspirations for transformational economic growth, focused on the following sectors: Advanced Manufacturing Building Technologies Transport Technologies including Aerospace Business Services 2.6 The target for GBS LEP, centred on the Metropolitan Core is to increase Gross Value Added (GVA) by 30% and create 100,000 net new private sector jobs by The following sectors will be targeted: Advanced Manufacturing including automotive and aerospace Business Professional and Financial Services ICT/ Digital Media Life Sciences 2.7 It is clear that the LEPs are planning for economic growth and job creation over and above that which is projected by the latest (policy neutral) Experian forecasts. Moreover, the focus is on fostering growth on a mix of sectors that will help put the Birmingham TTWA on a more sustainable footing, so that it is both more resilient and less susceptible to future economic shocks. 2.8 Such a process of economic restructuring involves reducing reliance on vulnerable, declining sectors and reducing public sector dependency through a focus on high value knowledge intensive industries. Crucially, it will be achieved by building on the areas inherent economic strengths. For example on the back of the West Midlands automotive cluster which is regarded as a world leader and the financial and business services, for which Birmingham is one of the largest centres outside of London /A5/DU/mg 8 January 2013

13 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context Figure 1: Birmingham Travel To Work Area 21856/A5/DU/mg 9 January 2013

14 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context iii) Key Assets and Opportunities 2.9 Both GBS LEP and BC LEP have identified priority locations that will act as catalysts for economic growth. These include the M42 Economic Gateway in Solihull, the West Midlands principal international gateway and strongest performing economy. If the proposed High Speed Rail 2 (HS2) is constructed, by 2026 the Gateway will be brought within a 40-minute journey time of central London The Birmingham City Centre Enterprise Zone is one of the major projects for the GBS LEP, with the potential to create 40,000 new jobs over the lifetime of the project, add 2 billion a year to the economy and make available 1.3m sq metres of floorspace In the BC LEP area, growth is being focused in and around the strategic centres of Brierley Hill, West Bromwich and Walsall and the associated employment/regeneration corridors. In addition, part of the Black County Enterprise Zone, where 4,000 jobs are expected to be created by 2020, is located to the north east of Darlaston on either side of the M6 in Walsall. Table 2.1: Birmingham TTWA and Overlapping Geographies Birmingham TTWA Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP (core) Birmingham Solihull Black Country LEP (greater part of) Worcestershire LEP (outer fringe) Bromsgrove Redditch Dudley Sandwell Walsall Coventry and Warwickshire LEP (outer fringe) Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP (outer fringe) Tamworth Lichfield North Warwickshire 21856/A5/DU/mg 10 January 2013

15 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context 3.0 NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS National Policy requires that local authorities ensure their plans are positively prepared and aspirational. Local authorities are required to meet full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing, and that this is identified in a SHMA. Account should be taken of migration and demographic change in formulating housing requirements. Local authorities should ensure that assessments of, and strategies for, housing, employment and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals. Local authorities should work closely with the business community to understand their changing needs and identify and address barriers to investment, including a lack of housing. The Government clearly recognises the link between housing and economic growth. 3.1 This section sets out the national policy context by which local planning authorities should be determining future housing requirements. a) NATIONAL POLICY i) National Planning Policy Framework 27 March The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) sets out the Government s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. The presumption in favour of sustainable development is said to sit at the heart of the NPPF, and this requires that local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area, and that local plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change. 3.3 The NPPF must be taken into account in the preparation of local and neighbourhood plans. The NPPF confirms that 12 core land use principles should underpin plan-making, and these include, driving and supporting economic development to deliver homes, business and thriving local places. In doing so, it requires that every effort is made to objectively identify and meet 21856/A5/DU/mg 11 January 2013

16 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context housing, business and other development needs of an area, and respond positively to wider opportunities for growth. 3.4 In respect of housing requirements, the NPPF (paragraph 47) confirms the need for local authorities to significantly boost the supply of housing and in doing so confirms that local authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing. 3.5 In establishing its housing requirement, in accordance with the NPPF (paragraph 159), local authorities should have a clear understanding of housing need, through the preparation of a strategic housing market assessment (SHMA). The NPPF is clear that a SHMA must identify the scale and mix of housing that the local population is likely to need, which: 1. meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change 2. addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable..; and 3. caters for housing demand and the scale of supply necessary to meet this demand. 3.6 The NPPF confirms the need for local authorities to be aspirational. Furthermore, the NPPF is clear in its requirement to set out an up to date, and relevant evidence base, ensuring that assessment and strategies for housing and employment and other uses are integrated. 3.7 Paragraph 160 confirms that local authorities should work closely with business communities to gain an understanding of changing needs, as well as identifying and addressing barriers to investment, which includes a lack of housing. 3.8 It is clear therefore that the NPPF requires that local authorities undertake to meet the full, objectively assessed need for market and affordable housing, and that they seek to integrate this within their employment strategy so as to ensure there are no barriers to investment. In short, local authorities are required to present a coherent strategy that is aspirational and positively prepared. 3.9 The NPPF is also clear in its requirement that local planning authorities have a duty to cooperate on planning issues that cross administrative boundaries, particularly those which relate to 21856/A5/DU/mg 12 January 2013

17 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context strategic priorities, which include the homes and jobs needed in the area 4. The Government is clear in its expectation for joint working on areas of common interest which should be diligently undertaken for the mutual benefit of neighbouring authorities. ii) Housing and Growth (6 September 2012) 3.10 The Housing and Growth ministerial statement by the Rt Hon Eric Pickles MP reaffirms the Coalition Government s number one priority to grow the economy, with a specific emphasis on increasing housebuilding across the country. This importance is emphasised as follows: House building starts across England were 29 per cent higher in 2011 compared to But there is far more to do to provide homes to meet Britain's demographic needs and to help generate local economic growth. 5 (our emphasis) 3.11 The role of demographic needs and economic growth is highlighted by the statement, in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF. iii) Laying The Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (November 2011) 3.12 Laying The Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England was published on the 21 st November It sets out the Coalition Governments strategy to unlock the housing market and increase the level of house building within Britain The Strategy aims to help develop local economies and create jobs by unblocking the housing market. It describes a lack of growth within the housing market has resulted in economic opportunities being neglected. The Strategy concludes that a lower housing supply means lower growth and fewer jobs - and this lack of job opportunities is itself a failure to support social mobility It is clearly stated within the Strategy that housing is inextricably linked to the wider health of the economy 7, and that recent economic circumstances have put increased pressure on the need to lay the foundations for stronger growth and stability in the future 8. It is clearly described within the Strategy that without growth in the housing market economic recovery will take 4 Paragraph 178, NPPF 5 Housing and Growth Ministerial Statement, 6 September 2012, CLG 6 Paragraph 4, page 2, Laying the Foundations: A housing Strategy for England, 21 st November Paragraph 4, Executive Summary, Laying the Foundations: A housing Strategy for England, 21 st November Paragraph 10, Executive Summary, Laying the Foundations: A housing Strategy for England, 21 st November /A5/DU/mg 13 January 2013

18 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study National Policy Context longer than it needs to 9. It argues that a more responsive housing market can play a major role in delivering economic growth The dependence of economic growth on house building is clearly emphasised throughout the Strategy. Housing has a direct impact on economic growth, producing 3% of the GDP over the last decade. The Strategy conveys the importance of the housing industry as a direct supplier of jobs. It states that each year two new jobs are created from each new dwelling built, and that every 1 million of new house building output supports 12 net jobs a year. b) SUMMARY 3.16 In summary, National Planning Policy clearly recognises the role that new residential development plays in assisting wider economic growth at a local level and across the country. This has been emphasised by the most recent ministerial statement Housing and Growth which asserts the NPPF s requirement to meet the demographic, social and economic needs of local authorities when setting housing targets National Planning Policy requires that in planning for future levels of housing, local authorities should boost significantly the supply of housing in their area that meets in full, the objectively assessed need for market and affordable housing. In doing so local authorities should; identify a scale of housing that meets household and population projections; account for migration and demographic change in formulating housing requirements; ensure that assessment of, and strategies for, housing, employment and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals; and work closely with the business community to understand their changing needs and identify and address barriers to investment, including a lack of housing. 9 Paragraph 11, Executive Summary, Laying the Foundations: A housing Strategy for England, 21 st November Referenced in paragraph 5, page 2, Laying the Foundations: A housing Strategy for England, 21 st November /A5/DU/mg 14 January 2013

19 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Regional Policy Context 4.0 REGIONAL POLICY CONTEXT 4.1 This section of the Study establishes the published regional policy context relating to housing and economic growth. a) REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS (RS) (2008) 4.2 The RS sets out a broad vision for development within the West Midlands up to 2021, and was published in However, the housing targets within the Adopted RS are informed by 1991 Census based data, and as such considered out of data, a point confirmed by the Planning Inspectorate The second phase of review, which commenced in November 2005 considered housing figures, centres, employment land, transport and waste. This second phase of review has since been placed on hold, following publication of the Panel s report in September The Phase Two WMRSS Panel Report published in September 2009 sets out a series of recommendations. Of particular note is the Panel s recommendation to replace Table 1, Housing Proposals , with a new table 12. We summarise this below: Table 4.1: WMRSS Phase Two Revisions Summary Housing Proposals ( ) Local Authority Dwellings per annum Birmingham 2,875 Bromsgrove 200 Redditch 350 Solihull 525 Lichfield 400 North Warwickshire 150 Tamworth 200 Dudley Sandwell 3,150 Walsall Total 7,850 Source: Table 3.3, West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy Phase Two Revisions, Report of the Panel, September Particular comments to note in respect of the above, include the fact that within Bromsgrove the Panel considered that a further Study should be undertaken in the context of a Core Strategy 11 Paragraph 9, Appeal Decision APP/J3720/A/10/ Rec Number R3.1, West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy Phase Two Revisions Report of Panel: September /A5/DU/mg 15 January 2013

20 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Regional Policy Context Review on the potential for sustainable provision of a further 2,000 to 3,000 dwellings for the period. In addition, and in respect of Redditch the Panel confirmed that 3,000 of the 7,000 dwelling target should be provided within Bromsgrove District adjacent to the Redditch boundary. Finally, in respect of Tamworth, the Panel Report notes that at least 1,000 units to be in Lichfield District adjacent to North Tamworth. 4.6 The WMRSS Phase Two sets out a regional vision as follows: The overall vision for the West Midlands is one of an economically successful, outward looking and adaptable Region, which is rich in culture and environment, where all people, working together, are able to meet their aspirations and needs without prejudicing the quality of life of future generations It is further stated that the Vision looks to a Region where there are opportunities for all to progress and improve their quality of life, and where there is an advanced, thriving and diverse economy which is able to compete in the world market. 4.8 A number of key issues are identified in realising this Vision. These include: - the movement of people and jobs away from the major urban areas; - increasing social exclusion and deprivation in the central urban neighbourhoods; - a shortage of affordable housing and significant problems with regard to the condition of housing, particularly in the private rented sector; - demanding national targets for new housing development; - lower economic growth than other regions in the UK and Europe, and a heavy reliance on manufacturing industry; and - a high proportion of the workforce with low-level or no formal qualifications Paragraph 2.7 goes on to state that in spatial terms, it is particularly the outward movement of people and jobs away from the MUAs which is increasingly recognised as an unsustainable trend and one which provides the Region with a key challenge. The trend is seen as increasing the pressures on the environment, encouraging the development of Greenfield sites, increasing the need for car-based travel and increasing dangers of abandonment and greater social polarisation within the Region. 13 Page 16, WMRSS Phase Two Preferred Option (December 2007) 14 Page 17, WMRSS Phase Two Preferred Option (December 2007) 21856/A5/DU/mg 16 January 2013

21 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Regional Policy Context 4.10 It goes on to state that a clear sense of common purpose is needed to address decentralisation, supported by a holistic, integrated approach to policies which affect the distribution of people and activities across the Region It is clear therefore that irrespective of the decision to abandon the update of the RS, there remain significant regional issues that need to be considered in the round, and can only be dealt with on a holistic basis. We consider the wider implications of each authority s locally based housing target later within this assessment /A5/DU/mg 17 January 2013

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23 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context 5.0 LOCAL PLANNING POLICY 5.1 This section of the Study summarises the relevant local planning policy of each of the authorities included within this assessment, in the context of the total housing provision set out in the West Midlands Regional Strategy Phase Two Revision (7,850 new dwellings, ). a) BIRMINGHAM i) Birmingham Plan Options Consultation (October 2012) 5.2 Birmingham City Council is currently consulting on options relating to its development plan, and specifically relating to how the City can plan positively for homes and jobs. 5.3 The Vision of Birmingham in 2031 is said to be one where the City is renowned as an enterprising, innovative and green city that has delivered sustainable growth meeting the needs of its population and strengthened its position on the international stage. It goes on to state that the choice and affordability of housing will be meeting the needs of all and local jobs and services will be accessible through a range of sustainable transport choices. It also states that the City s economy will be strong, built around a diverse base of economic activities and supported by a skilled workforce. 5.4 In setting its objectives, the emerging Plan, states that these will include: To make provision for a significant increase in the City s population To create a prosperous, successful and enterprising economy with benefits for all To encourage better health and well being 5.5 In setting out its Strategy, the emerging Plan confirms that in order to provide for significant new growth in the most sustainable way, it will be necessary to ensure that the development of new homes is matched by the provision of opportunities for new employment, accessible local services and a high quality environment. 5.6 Page 14 of the emerging Plan sets out that Birmingham s population is projected to grow by 150,000 by 2031, increasing demand for housing and jobs. It is on this basis that the Council considers there to be a need for around 80,000 new homes ( ) /A5/DU/mg 18 January 2013

24 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context 5.7 We review the evidence underpinning this housing target later within this Study. b) BROMSGROVE i) Emerging Bromsgrove Local Plan (January 2011) 5.8 Bromsgrove Council has delayed preparation of its Local Plan, in light of the need to assess cross border housing requirements with Redditch a point confirmed on both Councils website, and in published written communication. 5.9 The Council s previous Core Strategy consultation exercise related to its Draft Core Strategy 2 in January The Council stated within the introduction of this document that in determining Bromsgrove s housing need, the housing figures being used were those contained within the WMRSS Phase 2 Panel Report as referred to above Policy CP1 of the Draft Core Strategy 2 follows the WMRSS Phase 2 Revision 1 and sets out the development target of 4,000 dwellings over the period (267 dpa). After account is taken of completions between (totalling 764 units), there remains an outstanding requirement of 3,236 dwellings (324 dpa). Policy CP1 also recommends a partial review of housing supply by 2021 to ascertain whether there is the need and demand to supply 2,000-3,000 dwellings in the period For the purposes of this report we assess the implications of providing 267 dpa As we set out later within this report, whilst Bromsgrove Council have yet to issue an updated draft Local Plan, the Council has published an up to date Strategic Housing Market Assessment - the Worcestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (May 2012). In respect of Bromsgrove the SHMA sets out two scenarios for housing growth, the first (Core Scenario 3) is migration led and is said to require 370 dpa over the period The second is a form of economic led scenario (Sensitivity Scenario 2) and derives a requirement for 360 dpa ( ). c) REDDITCH i) Emerging Redditch Local Plan 5.12 As with Bromsgrove, progress on the emerging Redditch Local Plan has been delayed whilst both authorities consider the extent of cross border growth necessary. It is understood that the 21856/A5/DU/mg 19 January 2013

25 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context Council plans to consult on cross border issues in February/ March 2013, whilst consultation on the Local Plan will commence in June/ July The Revised Preferred Draft Core Strategy was the last published draft of the emerging plan. The Revised Preferred Draft included a Statement of Intention s, which confirmed that the issue of an appropriate housing target had been put to one side in order to take account of the household projections and to gather additional evidence. In the meantime the Statement confirms that the Council has proposed a target of 3,200 dwellings ( ), 160 new dwellings per annum. d) SOLIHULL i) Solihull Draft Local Plan Submission Draft (September 2012) 5.14 The Council submitted its draft Local Plan to the Secretary of State in September 2012, and the examination in public commences in January The Submission draft of the Core Strategy acknowledges the growth of 14,000 households (636 new households per annum), , forecast by the 2008-based CLG projection 15. However, Policy P5 Provision of Land for Housing sets housing provision totalling 8,665 additional dwellings, Coupled with past completions totalling 2,340 ( ), this equates to a total housing target of 11,000 dwellings (500 dpa), -21% lower than the CLG 2008-household growth projection The Council considers that: this level of growth supports the West Midlands Urban Renaissance Strategy to develop urban areas in such a way that they can increasingly meet their own economic and social needs in order to counter the unsustainable movement of people and jobs facilitated by previous strategies, including the need to direct development to those parts of the West Midlands Region needing housing Paragraph 8.4.1, page 71, Solihull Draft Local Plan Pre Submission Draft, January Paragraph 8.4.1, Solihull Draft Local Plan, September /A5/DU/mg 20 January 2013

26 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context e) LICHFIELD DISTRICT i) Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) 5.18 Policies CP1 (Spatial Strategy) and CP6 (Housing Delivery) of the Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) set out a requirement for 8,700 new dwellings ( ), equating to 435 new dwellings per annum. Policy CP6 states that: This will contribute to the requirement of 900 to 955 homes per year required for south east Staffordshire authorities as set out in the Housing Needs Assessment and SHMA Update. 17 This compares with the CLG 2008-based projection of 9,000 new households over the same period (450 hh per annum). However it should be noted that the most up-to-date ONS interim 2011-based sub national population projection shows a +3% increase in projected population growth from the ONS 2008-based projection, which underpins the CLG 2008-based projection. New CLG projections (expected early 2013) are therefore likely to exceed the 2008-based projection In respect of economic growth paragraph 9.10 of the Proposed Submission document states that: The Employment Land Review 2012 forecasts job growth in the District of around 7,130 jobs between 2010 and 2028 but to achieve a job balance ratio of 85% it is forecast that 8,926 jobs should be created Lichfield District Council acknowledge that a key challenge will be to meet the affordable housing need within the District. Annual affordable housing need (minimum 377) is close to the total annual housing target of 435 homes and the Council states that: opportunities are limited in providing new affordable housing alongside open market developments due to issues of viability. 19 Moreover the Council acknowledge that: 17 Policy CP6, paragraph 8.2, page 52, Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) 18 Paragraph 9.10, page 61, Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) 19 Paragraph 4.13, page 29, Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) 21856/A5/DU/mg 21 January 2013

27 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context The Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study and SHMA update identifies an annual need of between 377 and 702 affordable homes over a five year period, compared to our overall local annual housing target of 435 dwellings per year. It is therefore not practical to meet all of our identified need. 20 f) NORTH WARWICKSHIRE i) North Warwickshire Core Strategy Proposed Submission (November 2012) 5.21 Policy NW3: Housing Development of the North Warwickshire Core Strategy Proposed Submission states that: between 2006 and 2028 at least 3,800 dwellings (net) will be developed This equates to provision of 173 new dwellings per annum. This compares with the most up-todate 2008-based CLG household projection (250 hhpa). However it should be noted that the most up-to-date ONS interim 2011-based sub national population projection shows a +25% increase in projected population growth from the ONS 2008-based projection, which underpins the CLG 2008-based projection. New CLG projections (expected early 2013) are therefore likely to exceed the 2008-based projection, as will be discussed in more detail later in this report. g) TAMWORTH i) Tamworth Borough Local Plan Pre-Submission (June 2012) 5.23 The pre-submission publication version of the Tamworth Borough Local Plan was published in June 2012, and plans for the period between 2006 and Policy SP5: Housing sets a target of 4,500 new dwellings over the Plan period, equating to annual provision of 205 new dwellings. 22 This target is the minimum level of housing provision from 12 growth scenarios set out in the South Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study (May 2012), which showed projected demand for between 4,400 and 11,150 new dwellings over the Plan period. The draft Local Plan acknowledges this as follows: 20 Paragraph 8.15, page 56, Lichfield District Proposed Submission Local Plan (July 2012) 21 Policy NW3 Housing Development, North Warwickshire Core Strategy: Proposed Submission, November Policy SP5, page 47, Tamworth Borough Local Plan Pre-Submission, June /A5/DU/mg 22 January 2013

28 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context The scenarios identified a range of growth options for Tamworth during the plan period, from 4,400 dwellings to 11,150 dwellings. 23 h) BLACK COUNTRY (including DUDLEY, SANDWELL, & WALSALL) i) Black Country Core Strategy (February 2011) 5.24 The Black Country Core Strategy (BCCS) was adopted in February 2011 and covers an area including Dudley, Sandwell, and Walsall. The Vision for the Black Country in 2026 is underpinned by three major directions of change which are to achieve sustainable communities, environmental transformation, and economic prosperity. 24 The Vision is supported by BCCS ten spatial objectives. In respect of the aspiration to achieve economic prosperity the BCCS states that the following will be achieved: A restructured sub-regional economy which will have resulted in sustained economic growth and an increase in the choice of jobs available in the Black Country s economy The BCCS represents the most up-to-date development plan for these authorities, and policy HOU1 Delivering Sustainable Housing Growth sets out the housing growth for the area. The individual authorities of Dudley, Sandwell, and Walsall are summarised as follows. Dudley 5.26 Policy HOU1 of the BCCS sets a housing target of 16,127 new dwellings, This equates to annual provision of 806 new dwellings over the Plan period, and compares with the most up-to-date 2008-based CLG projection of 700 households per annum However the most up-to-date interim 2011-based ONS sub national population projection shows a 25% increase from the population growth projected by the 2008-based series, the latter of which underpins the 2008-based CLG projection. The new CLG projection (expected early 2013) is likely to show a significant increase from the 2008-based household projection. 23 Paragraph 5.3, page 44, Tamworth Borough Local Plan Pre-Submission, June Page 20, Black Country Core Strategy, February Page 22, Black Country Core Strategy, February /A5/DU/mg 23 January 2013

29 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context Sandwell 5.27 The BCCS sets a housing target of 21,489 new dwellings over the Plan period ( ), equating to annual provision of 1,074 new dwellings. This compares with the most up-to-date 2008-based CLG projection of 900 households per annum However the most up-todate interim 2011-based ONS sub national population projection shows a 63% increase from the population growth projected by the 2008-based series, the latter of which underpins the based CLG projection. The new CLG projection (expected early 2013) is therefore likely to show a significant increase from the 2008-based household projection. Walsall 5.28 The BCCS sets a housing target of 11,973 new dwellings over the Plan period ( ), equating to annual provision of 599 new dwellings. This compares with the most up-to-date 2008-based CLG projection of 500 households per annum However the most up-todate interim 2011-based ONS sub national population projection shows a 44% increase from the population growth projected by the 2008-based series, the latter of which underpins the based CLG projection. The new CLG projection (expected early 2013) is therefore likely to show a significant increase from the 2008-based household projection /A5/DU/mg 24 January 2013

30 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Local Planning Policy Context i) SUMMARY 5.29 This section has summarised the most up-to-date development plan policies of the authorities referred to in this Study. The housing targets of the individual authorities are set out in Table 5.1 (below). Table 5.1: Local Planning Policy Summary Housing Proposals ( ) Local Authority Dwellings per annum Birmingham 4,000 Bromsgrove 267 Redditch 160 Solihull 500 Lichfield 435 North Warwickshire 173 Tamworth 205 Dudley Sandwell 2,479 Walsall Total 8, As Table 5.1 shows, the development plans of the constituent local planning authorities plan for provision of 8,219 new dwellings per annum, This represents an increase from the cumulative target of the RS (7,850 dpa). This total will be considered in the context of Central Government projections and bespoke demographic modelling in the following sections of this Study /A5/DU/mg 25 January 2013

31 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Household Demographics 6.0 HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS 26 SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS The most up-to-date interim 2011-based ONS sub national population projections (September 2012) show significantly higher projected growth between 2011 and 2031 (+24%) than the 2008-based ONS sub national population projection across the ten local planning authorities (+15% across the four Metropolitan Core authorities of Birmingham, Solihull, Bromsgrove and Redditch); The rise in projected population growth shown by the ONS interim 2011-based projection indicates that the most up-to-date 2008-based CLG household projections significantly underestimate household growth across the Birmingham area between 2011 and The new CLG household projections (expected early 2013) are highly likely to reflect the increase in projected population growth set out in the ONS interim 2011-based projections; The ONS estimates of net-migration show a trend for net out-migration across the Birmingham sub region over the short ( ) and long-term ( ) periods. However the past three years ( ) have seen a return to net in-migration across the area, averaging 800 people per annum. i) Introduction 6.1 In the context of the NPPF s requirement to set a housing target which meets population and household projections, taking account of migration and demographic change (paragraph 159) this section considers the official Central Government projections by the ONS and CLG. The most recent sub national population projections were published in September 2012, however updated CLG household projections are yet to be published and are expected in early ii) Office for National Statistics (ONS) population projection 6.2 Table 6.1 (below) highlights the significant increase in projected population growth across the Birmingham sub-region between the 2008-based ONS projection (May 2010) and the most up-todate interim 2011-based ONS projection (September 2012). 26 Detailed demographic analysis of Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Redditch and Solihull is set out in Appendix /A5/DU/mg 26 January 2013

32 Birmingham Sub-Regional Housing Study Household Demographics Table 6.1: Comparison of ONS 2008-based and Interim 2011-based sub national population projections Population Growth Interim based SNPP (per annum) Population Growth 2008-based SNPP (per annum) % Difference in Growth (2011 vs 2008-based) Birmingham 86,000 (8,600) 75,900 (7,590) 147,000 (7,350) 13% Bromsgrove 6,000 (600) 6,000 (600) 12,000 (600) 0% Redditch 3,600 (360) 2,300 (230) 4,300 (215) 57% Solihull 14,300 (1,430) 11,400 (1,140) 24,000 (1,200) 25% Sub Total 109,900 (10,990) 95,600 (9,560) 187,300 (9,365) 15% Lichfield 8,000 (800) 7,800 (780) 14,200 (710) 3% North Warwickshire 2,500 (250) 2,000 (200) 4,300 (215) 25% Tamworth 5,000 (500) 2,700 (270) 5,000 (250) 85% Dudley 12,100 (1,210) 9,700 (970) 18,900 (945) 25% Sandwell 26,400 (2,640) 16,200 (1,620) 31,900 (1,595) 63% Walsall 12,200 (1,220) 8,500 (850) 17,200 (860) 44% Sub Total 66,200 (6,620) 46,900 (4,690) 91,500 (4,575) 41% 176, ,500 TOTAL (17,610) (14,250) Source: ONS; Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding 278,800 (13,940) 24% 6.3 Cumulatively, the interim 2011-based ONS sub national population projection for Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Solihull, and Redditch shows an increase of 15% when compared with the ONS 2008-based projection. Individually the increase ranges from 0% to 57%, with all but one authority showing an increase of 13% or more. The remaining six authorities show a cumulative increase of 41%, with a range of 3% to 85%. All but one of the six remaining authorities show 25% growth or more. In total the interim 2011-based ONS population projection for the 10 local authorities of the sub region shows an increase of 24% in projected population growth compared with the ONS 2008-based sub national population projections /A5/DU/mg 27 January 2013