Baseline Current Progress. 2.0% Point Gap with UK

Transcription

1 October 2017 GBSLEP KPI Report KPI Dashboard KPI Baseline Current Progress To Date Latest Data Create 250,000 Private Sector Jobs by 2030 to be the Leading Core City LEP for Private Sector Job Creation 633, , ,200 54% Delivered 22,600 Increase GVA by 29bn by bn 44.5bn 4.5bn 15% Delivered 1.8bn Decrease Unemployment to the National Average by 2020 & 2.7% Point Gap with UK 2.0% Point Gap with UK 0.7% Points 26% Delivered +0.2% Points To Have the Lowest Unemployment Amongst the LEP Core Cities by % Point Gap with Leading CC 3.3% Point Gap with Leading CC 1.8% Points 35% Delivered +0.3% Points GBSLEP to be the Leading Core City LEP by 2030 for GVA per Head 7,123 Per Head Gap 6,124 Per Head Gap 999 Per Head 14% Delivered 692 Per Head Increase the % of Working Age Population with NVQ3+ to the National Average by % Point Gap with UK 6.6% Point Gap with UK +1.0% A +1.0% Point New KPIs - To be Baselined from 2015 Increase Productivity Rates to the National Average by GVA per Hour Gap (2015 data) Per Hour GBSLLEP to be the Leading 1 Core City LEP for Quality of Life by Ranked 5/8 ( ) - - Gap in index Score down 5%

2 GBSLEP KPI Report October 2017 Leading Indicators Dashboard KPI Baseline Current To Date Progress Latest Data Labour Market Indicators Claimant Unemployment 67,260 38,490-28, WM Employment 2,489,000 2,598, , ,000 WM Emp. Rate 69.0% 72.7% +3.7% +0.9% WM Unemployment 243, ,800-81,900-2,300 WM Unemployment Rate 8.9% 5.9% -3.0% -0.2% % Business 10%+ Employment Growth n 3 Consecutive Years 24% 23% -1% -3% FDI Jobs Created 764 2,670 1,906-1,856 Economic Output Indicators Private Sector Business Start-ups Business Start-up Rate (per10,000 of Pop) Start-up 3 Year Survival Rate % Start-ups Reaching 1m+ Turnover After 3 Years QBR - Domestic Sales Index 5,021 9,178 +4,157 +1, % 51.6% +3.2% -1.0% 5.8% 4.8% -1.0% +0.1% QBR - Export Sales Index Unchanged -1 West Midlands Exports (quarterly - goods only) West Midlands PMI Business Activity Index 4.1bn 7.9bn + 3.8bn + 0.3bn

3 GBSLEP KPI Report October 2017 Leading Indicators Comparison Dash- KPI Baseline Current Labour Market Indicators Claimant Unemployment Rate Differential -2.6% gap -1.6% gap (with Core City LEPs) -1.6% gap -0.8% gap To Date -1.0% -0.8% Progress Latest Data No Change No Change GBSLEP Employment Rate Differential -5.3% gap -2.9% gap (with Core City LEPs) -4.6% gap -2.4% gap -0.7% -0.5% -0.8% -0.4% % Business 10%+ Employment Growth in 3 Consecutive Years -0.5% gap -0.6% gap (with Core City LEPs) +0.6% gap -0.2% gap +1.1% +0.4% -0.3% -0.6% Economic Output Indicators Business Start-up Rate Differential (per 10,000 of Pop) -4.2 gap -3.0 gap -1.2 gap -6.3 gap +1.9 gap (with Core City LEPs) +6.7 gap (with Core City LEPs) +4.6 gap +5.9 Start-up 3 Year Survival Rate Differential +3.0% gap +6.2% gap (with Core City LEPs) -2.0% gap -1.9% gap (with Core City LEPs) -5.0% +8.1% +1.0% +0.9% % Start-ups Reaching 1m+ Turnover After 3 Years Differential -0.1% gap +0.2% gap (with Core City LEPs) +0.1% gap +0.3% gap (with Core City LEPs) -0.2% +0.1% -0.2% +0.2%

4 KPI 1 Create 250,000 Private Sector Jobs by ,200 Jobs Created 54% Of Target Delivered Trends After declining during the recession to stand at 633,600 in 2010, private sector jobs in the GBSLEP area grew strongly in 2011 (+23,000) and 2012 (+19,600). Growth was slower in 2013 (+1,800) but accelerated again in 2014 (+41,100) and 2015 (+26,100). In 2016 private sector employment grew by a further 22,400 to now stand at 767,8,00. This is 134,200 above the baseline, with 54% of the 205,000 target achieved. Milestones Proposed t milestones see the majority of the job growth occurring in the period between 2020 to 2030 with 40% of the target to be delivered in the first decade and 60% in the second. Significant private sector jobs growth to date has resulted in the GBSLEP being well ahead of profile in achieving the 250,000 jobs target. 800, , , , ,000 80, ,000 60, ,000 40,000 20, , Change from Baseline Total Private Sector Employment 900, , , , , , ,000 GBS LEP Private Sector Employment Private Sector Jobs Milestones 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 LEP LA Performance Private Sector Workplace Employment Area Annual Job Growth Target Profile 2016 Number Actual Employment All nine areas have seen private sector employment growth since The majority of the 134,200 private sector jobs that have been created in the GBSLEP area between 2010 and 2016 have come in Birmingham with 62,000 jobs created in the city. This accounts for nearly half (46%) of all the private sector jobs created; Solihull is the next largest contributor with 26,200 (20%). As the two largest economies in the LEP area this would be expected. If we look at the % growth in private sector employment in each area we can see that Bromsgrove (52%) and Lichfield (36%) have seen the biggest rise proportionately in private sector jobs. Change % of LEP Total % Growth Birmingham 338, , , , , , ,700 62, % 18.3% Bromsgrove 28,700 29,200 30,700 30,300 31,700 33,300 43,500 14, % 51.6% Cannock Chase 28,500 28,400 29,600 30,300 33,700 34,200 35,600 7, % 24.9% East Staffordshire 45,900 48,100 46,100 48,200 52,600 53,500 52,400 6, % 14.2% Lichfield 33,700 34,800 34,700 36,400 39,000 43,400 45,600 11, % 35.3% Redditch 29,700 29,900 30,400 30,900 31,100 33,400 32,300 2, % 8.8% Solihull 77,400 80,000 87,200 85,100 90,600 98, ,600 26, % 33.9% Tamworth 23,800 23,500 27,200 25,300 26,500 28,100 26,100 2, % 9.7% Wyre Forest 27,200 27,500 27,700 26,100 27,200 28,000 28, % 2.9% GBSLEP 633, , , , , , , , % 21.2%

5 KPI 1 Create 250,000 Private Sector Jobs by 2030 Intermediate & Contextual Indicators As this KPI is measured by data released annually with a one year time lag the following intermediate indicators are displayed in order to highlight current performance and trends relating to this KPI. Decreased 11% 27% of firms reported an increase in labour force in Q2 Increased 27% Recruitment The Greater Birmingham Chamber Quarterly Business Report (QBR) Q shows that in April to June % of firms in the LEP area saw there workforce increase, down slightly from Q1 and the share of firms whose workforce decreased rose from 8% in Q1 to 11%.. Unchanged 62% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Attempted to Recruit Q Q Difficulty Recruiting Recruitment Difficulties The Q2 QBR found that 50% of firms attempted to recruit in Q down on the previous quarter. The majority of jobs recruited for were full-time, permanent positions. There was a rise in the percentage of firms experiencing recruitment difficulties from 63% in Q1 to 65% in Q2. The main reasons cited by firms were candidates not having the right skills, qualifications or levels of experience, but also candidates not having the correct attitude for work. 920, , , , , , , ,000 Resident Employment Pre Recession Peak Resident Employment Rates Whilst a significant number of private sector jobs (134,200) have ben generated in the LEP area since 2010, public sector employment has fallen by 27,500 so net workplace employment growth stands at 107,700. The number of LEP residents (16+) in employment after falling initially has picked up over recent years to reach a level well above the high reached prior to the downturn. The latest data for Q shows a rise in resident employment in the LEP, up by 5,000 to 897,300.

6 KPI 2 Increase GVA by 29bn by bn GVA Growth 15% Of Target Delivered Trends Real GVA (which removes the impacts of inflation) in the GBSLEP fell sharply during the recession but has shown a steady recovery since 2009 with the 2015 figures pushing economic output in the LEP area back above its pre-recessi0n peak for the first time figures show real GVA is above the 2010 baseline level and up on 2014 also. Milestones 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 GBS LEP Real GVA Total GVA ( m) 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3,000 The proposed GVA milestones see the majority of the output growth occurring in the period between 2020 to 2030 with 40% of the target to be delivered in the first decade and 60% in the second. This is to take into account that major GBSLEP initiatives will impact more on GVA in the second decade. The 2015 figures have pushed us slightly ahead of profile to deliver the GVA growth target as shown in the chart opposite. LEP LA Performance GVA figures are not available at district LA level the lowest geographical level that official GVA data is available at is for Unitary Authority. However, a figure for the Districts as a whole can be derived and GVA figures for Birmingham, Solihull and the Districts are presented in the table below. Birmingham was the biggest contributor to economic growth in the LEP area in 2015 (+ 1.1bn) accounting for 61% of GVA growth. Solihull experienced the strongest growth rate with its economy expanding by 7.7% in 2015, both Solihull and Birmingham had stronger output growth than nationally (2.2%) in ,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Real GVA Milestones 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Annual GVA Growth Actual GVA m Target Profile 2015 GVA Birmingham Solihull Districts GVA up 1.1bn 4.7% GVA up 477m 7.7% GVA up 226m 1.8% GBSLEP Real GVA 2015 m Change Area m % Birmingham 22,404 22,626 22,636 23,113 23,681 24,790 1, % Solihull 5,475 5,375 5,796 5,808 6,195 6, % Districts 12,134 12,312 12,290 12,276 12,798 13, % GBSLEP 40,014 40,313 40,722 41,196 42,674 44,485 1, %

7 KPI 2 Increase GVA by 29bn by 2030 Intermediate & Contextual Indicators As this KPI is measured by data released annually with a one year time lag the following intermediate indicators are displayed in order to highlight current performance and trends relating to this KPI. Unchanged 21% Decreased 11% 68% of firms expect turnover to improve in next 12 months Increased 68% Business Confidence The majority of firms (68%) in the GBSLEP area ere still expecting turnover to improve over the coming 12 months. A decrease from the 72% recorded in Q GVA per Hour 2015 Growth % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Productivity - GVA per Hour Worked The latest official GVA per hour worked figures which are the ONS preferred measure of productivity are displaced in the adjacent chart which shows that of the LEP core cities the GBSLEP has the 5th highest productivity at per hour compared to for the UK as a whole. The Bristol LEP is the only core city LEP with higher productivity than the UK. Annual productivity growth in the GBSLEP was 1.6% last year the third strongest amongst the LEP core cities. after Liverpool LEP. Ranked Core City Real GVA per Worker 2015 Area Change % West of England 54,732 55,878 1, % GBSLEP 48,275 49,373 1, % Liverpool City Region 47,221 48, % GVA per Worker If we look at GVA per worker the GBSLEP performs better having the second highest rate amongst the core city LEPs. GVA per worker in the LEP is well below the national average which we can see from the table is heavily skewed by London. GVA per worker rose in seven of the eight core city LEP areas last year and at a national level but fell in London. Greater Manchester 47,127 48, % Leeds City Region 46,868 47, % D2N2 47,640 47, % North Eastern 45,579 45, % Sheffield City Region 44,016 44, % CC LEP Total 47,416 47, % London 75,809 75, % England 55,600 55, % England Exc. London 50,761 51, %

8 KPI 3 Decrease Unemployment to the National Average by 2020 Gap Down by 0.7% Points 26% Of Target Delivered & To Have the Lowest Unemployment Amongst the LEP Core Cities by 2030 Gap Down by 1.8% Points 35% of Target Delivered LEP Core City Unemployment Rates Q D2N2 4.2% UK 4.9% LEP Cc Average 5.6% Manchester 6.1% North East 7.4% West of England 3.6% Leeds 4.6% Liverpool 5.2% Sheffield 5.7% GBSLEP 6.9% Milestones The latest data saw the unemployment differential with the UK open a little (+0.2% s in Q1 2017) after contracting quite sharply in Q (-0.5% s). The GBSLEP is still currently behind its target profile to close the gap with the UK by As with the profiles for KPI 1 & 2 the majority of the gap with the leading core city LEP is profiled to be closed in 2020 to The gap with the West of England has fluctuated over recent years but increased to 3.3% s in Q1 (up by 0.3% s on Q4 2016) but is down by 1.8% s on the baseline position and currently ahead of profile. Unemployment Milestones - UK Unemployment Milestones- Core Cities 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Actual Gap Target Profile Actual Gap Target Profile

9 KPI 3 Decrease Unemployment to the National Average by 2020 & To Have the Lowest Unemployment Amongst the LEP Core Cities by 2030 Intermediate & Contextual Indicators As this KPI is measured by data released quarterly with a four month time lag the following indicators are displayed in order to highlight current performance and trends and provide context for this KPI Economic Activity Rate UK GBS LEP Chart 2: Core City LEP Unemployment Economic Activity Economic activity is a measure of labour market participation it is a count of those of working age who are employed or unemployed but actively seeking work. After falling sharply during which saw the gap with the UK widen economic activity in the LEP has begun to recover in recent months. In Q the economic activity rate increased from 73.9% to 74.5% and the gap with the UK fell to 3.3% s. GBSLEP Greater Manchester Liverpool City Region Pan London United Kingdom Core Cities LEP Average Claimant Count Unemployment After falling sharply in the recovery unemployment has plateaued and in recent months the claimant count rate has fluctuated. The most recent data for August 2017 shows the clai9mant count decreasing marginally by 10 to 38,490 (4.0%). The claimant count rate gap between the GBSLEP and the core city LEP average remained at 0.8% s. Claimant unemployment by LEP LA is shown in the table below. District Unemployment Claimant Count Data Claimant Unemployment - August 2017 Total Claimant Unemployed Area JSA Claimants UC Claimants Number Claimant Proportion Claimant Rate Birmingham 22,473 8,942 31, % 6.2% Bromsgrove % 1.3% Cannock Chase % 1.4% East Staffordshire % 1.2% Lichfield % 0.9% Redditch % 2.2% Solihull 1,282 1,038 2, % 2.2% Tamworth % 1.1% Wyre Forest % 1.6% GBS LEP 26,579 11,911 38, % 4.0% UK 476, , , % 2.4% Claimant proportion: claimants divided by population. Claimant rate: claimants divided by economically active. 16+ population

10 KPI 4 GBSLEP to be the Leading Core City LEP by 2030 for GVA per Head Gap Down 999 Per Head 14% Of Target Delivered GVA per Head Differential Trends The gap in real GVA per head between the GBSLEP and the leading LEP (West of England LEP) widened during the recession, the gap narrowed in the early part of the recovery before widening again in 2013 and The strong GVA growth in the GBSLEP in 2015 has seen the gap narrow by 692 last year ,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 GBS LEP West of England Gap Milestones The proposed GVA per head milestones see the majority of the closing of the GVA per gap occurring in the period between 2020 to 2030 with 40% of the target to be delivered in the first decade and 60% in the second. The GVA per head differential is below the 2010 baseline but currently slightly behind target profile. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 GVA per Head Milestones ,000 GVA per Head by Area 2015 GVA per head figures and how they have changed between in the three component areas of the LEP are displayed in the chart opposite. Annual Change in GVA per Head Gap Actual Gap Target Profile Solihull has the highest GVA per head in the LEP area and has experienced the strongest growth between 2014 and GVA per head growth in Birmingham and Solihull was above the rate achieved nationally (1.4%) and the core city LEP average (2.2%).

11 KPI 5 Increase the % of Working Age Population with NVQ3+ to the National Average by 2025 Gap Up by 1.0% Points 18% Increase in Gap on Baseline Trends The GBSLEP has consistently underperformed compared to the national average on this KPI. The skills gap widened sharply in 2011 before closing again. The most recent data for 2016 shows the gap opening from 5.6% s to 6.6% s, pushing the gap back up above the 2010 baseline level. 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% NVQ3+ Differential 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Milestones Proposed milestones see the majority of the NVQ3+ gap being closed between 2020 and 2025, reflecting the longer term nurture of achieving change in qualification levels. There has been an increase in the differential since the baseline year so currently we are behind the target profile ion this KPI. % + 3 Q V N 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% GBS LEP UK Gap NVQ3+ Milestones LEP LA Performance Actual Gap Target Profile NVQ3+ qualification levels vary across the nine LEP LA areas with Redditch, Tamworth and Cannock currently having the lowest rates Bromsgrove and the Wyre Forest are currently the only areas in the LEP with rates above the national average. Annual Population Survey NVQ qualifications data is available at district level however, due to the small sample sizes at the lower geographical levels the ONS do not advise using the data at this level. Therefore the district data in the table below is subject to sampling error and change in annual qualification levels may not reflect genuine movements in NVQ3+ attainment Area 2010 Baseline Change Number % Number % Number % Number % Birmingham 281, , , , Bromsgrove 28, , , , Cannock Chase 23, , , East Staffordshire 36, , , , Lichfield 30, , , Redditch 19, , , Solihull 66, , , , Tamworth 17, , , , Wyre Forest 26, , , , GBSLEP 529, , , , LEP Core City Average 4,681, ,384, ,474, , UK 19,667, ,623, ,189, ,

12 KPI 5 Increase the % of Working Age Population with NVQ3+ to the National Average by 2025 Intermediate & Contextual Indicators As this KPI is measured by data released annually the following indicators are displayed in order to highlight current performance and trends and provide context for this KPI. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% NVQ4+ Differential GBS LEP UK Gap 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% NVQ4+ The percentage of the population with NVQ4+ (degree and above) has grown steadily in the GBSLEP since However, the gap with the UK proportion widened as the recession hit before narrowing again more recently. However, the latest data for 2016 shows the gap with the UK widening again, up from 4.6% s in 2015 to 5.4% s in % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% No Qualifications Differential 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% No Qualifications The GBSLEP has a higher percentage of working age residents with no qualifications compared to the UK average. The proportion of unqualified residents in the LEP has fallen in recent years the most recent data for 2016 shows the gap with the UK narrowing as the % of residents with no qualifications fell faster in the GBSELP than nationally. GBS LEP UK Gap School Attainment - GCSE 5+ A*-C Inc. English & Maths 2015/16 and Change on 2014/15

13 KPI 6 Increase Productivity Rates to the National Average by 2030 GBSLEP GVA Per Hour GBS LEP Real GVA per Hour Trends Annual Change GVA per Hour ( ) Productivity as measured by GVA per hour worked has consistently been lower in the GBSLEP economy than at a national level and the differential with the UK has actually widened during the recovery as productivity levels declined locally. Core city LEP productivity over the last 5 years is shown in the table below, currently the GBSLEP has the 5th highest productivity amongst the core city LEPs. Ranked Core City LEP Real GVA per Hour Worked ( 2015) Change Area % 1 West of England % 2 Liverpool City Region % 3 D2N % 4 Greater Manchester % 5 GBSLEP % 6 Leeds City Region % 7 North Eastern % 8 Sheffield City Region % London % UK % Gap with UK West Midlands LAs Productivity The 2015 GVA per hour worked figures for the unitary authorities in the West Midlands region are shown in the table below, productivity increased in all areas of the region in Solihull has the highest productivity rates in there GBSLEP and is the only area with productivity rates above the UK average. Real GVA per Hour Worked - West Midlands ( 2015) Area Change Amount % Worcestershire CC % Staffordshire CC % West Midlands Met Area % Birmingham % Solihull % Coventry % Dudley % Sandwell % Walsall % Wolverhampton % West Midlands Region % UK %

14 KPI 7 GBSLLEP to be the Leading Core City LEP for Quality of Life by 2030 GBSLEP Ranked 5/8 PWC Good Growth Index Quality of Life Index Rankings The GBSLEP is currently the 5th ranked core city LEP area in the PWC Good Growth Index which is the chosen tool for monitoring quality of life in the area and our performance relative to other LEP areas. This ranking has not changed in the 3 years that PWC have been producing an index score for LEP areas. However, the index score itself on which the rankings are based has shown improvement with the index score for the GBSLEP improving in absolute terms and relative to other LEP areas. The gap in index score with both the leading core city LEP area (West of England) and with the current 4th placed area (Greater Manchester) has narrowed for both areas. If this pattern were to continue at current levels the GBSLEP would be expected to move up a ranking in next years results to 4th. - PWC Good Growth Index Rank and Scores Core City LEPs Index Score Performance Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank West of England D2N Leeds Greater Manchester GBSLEP Sheffield North East Liverpool Gap with West of England Gap with 4th Ranked Index Score Differential with West of England Differential with 4 th Placed +75% -6% -70%