THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CASE FOR MORE HOUSING Jacqueline Mulliner

Transcription

1 THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CASE FOR MORE HOUSING Jacqueline Mulliner

2 A NECESSARY DEBATE Is the housing crisis a storm in a tea-cup or are we at sea? The scale of the social problem, is it inevitable or borne from our own actions and behaviour? Are there economic benefits and how do we secure those benefits? What is in the public interest? What are the alternatives? Who s responsible, do we have the right tools? Can we make a difference?

3 THE NATIONAL CASE: ECONOMIC BENEFITS Housing contributes to GDP in two ways: 1. Private residential investment 2. Consumption spending on housing services Residential investment averages 5% of GDP & housing services 12% - 13%, Combined, 17% - 18% of GDP (Source: National Association of Housebuilders) The local community doesn t always feel these benefits. But it can feel the effect of: 2.41 generated in the wider economy, for every 1 spent on housing construction 2.3 jobs for every new home built (Source: National Housing Federation) New Homes Bonus secures s for local projects

4 THE REALITY FOR OUR INDUSTRY 80% of businesses believe that the lack of affordable housing is stalling economic growth in local communities 70% of businesses warn that it would affect their ability to attract and keep workers On average, rents take up half of an English person s disposable income The Government is now spending 24bn of taxpayers money on housing benefit. (Source: NHF Home Truths)

5 ENGLAND NEEDS. 240,000 HOMES PER YEAR JUST TO MEET DEMAND (Source: Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research)

6 THE NATIONAL CASE: SOCIAL DUTY Demand: An Englishman s Home is his Castle Over 113,000 households in England applied for homelessness assistance in 2012/13 (11% increase in the last two years). The average age of the first time buyer in England is now somewhere between In the last decade home ownership has fallen from 68% to 63% Supply 42,830 affordable homes were provided in England in , a decrease of 26% from ,400 (92%) were new build, the highest percentage reported since before , but still a 25% decrease from In , 86% of total affordable home delivery was reported by the HCA or the GLA, a reduction from 89% in Over this time period, the total number of affordable homes reported by the HCA or the GLA has decreased by around 30%. (Source: DCLG Statistics Release 11/13)

7 THE GOVERNMENT S RESPONSE: GET BRITAIN BUILDING The NPPF March 2012 (preceded by the plan for growth): Must house a rising population, living longer and wishing to make new choices. Presumption in favour of sustainable development, positively seek opportunities to meet development needs. Core principle, proactively drive and support sustainable economic development to deliver homes. Every effort should be made objectively to identify and then meet the housing needs of an area, taking account of market signals, such as land prices and housing affordability. Allocate sufficient land which is suitable for development. Ministerial Statement January 2013: No aspiration is more deeply embedded in the British psyche than the desire to own your own home. But the prospect of doing so has been slipping ever further out of the reach of millions of hard-working people. This is a result of our decades-long failure to build enough houses. And the root cause of this is our decades-long refusal to release enough land for development. To accept that we are going to have to build on previously undeveloped land George Osborne in the press (4/2/14): Historic imbalance between supply & demand, Britain s housing problem is likely to persist for at least 10 years. Economic recovery is underway but there is still much to do.

8 DORSET Bournemouth Poole Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset West Dorset Population Population (2001) 163, ,288 44,865 83,786 61,905 92,360 Population (2011) 183, ,645 47,752 87,166 68,583 99,264 Ages 0-17 (2001) 30,541 28,996 7,968 16,170 13,981 18,697 Ages 0-17 (2011) 31,784 29,216 8,534 15,592 14,396 18,354 Working Age (2001) 101,878 84,510 24,517 48,236 37,331 53,406 Working Age (2011) 122,913 91,828 26,102 49,238 41,431 57,258 Retirement Age 65+ (2001) 34,280 28,054 13,275 21,246 12,340 22,603 Retirement Age 65+ (2011) 32,311 30,158 14,187 24,319 14,799 26,278 Unemployment Unemployment (2001) 3.03% 2.21% 2.15% 1.66% 1.8% 1.9% Unemployment (2011) 3.8% 3.2% 3.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.3% Construction Employment Employment in Construction Industry (2001)* 5,289 (7.31%) 4,736 (7.37%) 1,474 (8.12%) 2,997 (8.09%) 2,406 (8.37%) 3,135 (7.85%) Employment in Construction Industry (2011)* 6,530 (7.3%) 6,105 (8.5%) 1,866 (9.2%) 3,818 (9.5%) 3,172 (9.5%) 3,810 (8.3%) *Employment in construction as percentage of all usual residents aged in Employment.

9 EMPLOYMENT Across Dorset, in the period October , there were a greater number of business closures relative to business starts. In Bournemouth, of the 6,310 active enterprises, 15% experienced closure, compared to 10.6% of business starts. Employers in the construction sector are more likely to offer formal apprenticeships: 17% compared to the all sector average of 13%. (Source: Department for Business Innovation & Skills, 2013)

10 DORSET Bournemouth & Poole Dorset County Council Gross Disposable Household Income Per Head at Current Prices ,087 12, ,834 17,395 Gross Value Added Construction million 388 million million 557 million (ONS, 2013)

11 Additional affordable supply: Dorset is not fairing particularly well compared to the rest of the Country

12 DORSET KEY STATS (SHMA 2011) DORSET THE REALITY (SHMA 2011) Vacancy rates in the HMA are generally low. House prices /entry levels have decreased from 2007 for owner occupiers. But rents have increased and unemployment has increased; Whilst average household income has increased. Around 26% of households across the HMA cannot afford housing at current market purchase prices or rents without the need for some form of subsidy. 7.7% of households surveyed indicate living in unsuitable housing. Among the reasons identified for unsuitable housing in the Bournemouth/Poole HMA, o o 86% identified their accommodation as too expensive. 60% identified living in overcrowded conditions 55% of households are deprived in at least one dimension (59% in Bournemouth). 0.25% of households are deprived in all four dimensions.

13 PAST AND FUTURE 1,356 dwellings / year recent completion rates VERSUS 1,976 households / year increase (to 2031) 17% of additional dwellings have been affordable. A general decrease in housebuilding has meant that affordable delivery has decreased. The number of households in the HMA is projected to increase by 15.5%

14 BENEFITS OVERVIEW Housing and Labour High quality housing is needed to attract and retain skilled, mobile workers. The availability of affordable housing increases an employer s ability to attract and retain staff. Quality and affordability are important considerations for start-ups, with lower wages. Home Ownership: Increased supply promotes a reduction in price. Investment in Infrastructure: Increased viability of infrastructure investment. Better connectivity attracts businesses. Population Growth: Growth increased requirements for services and local consumption.

15 IN SHORT Housing growth helps to tackles society s toughest social and economic challenges It is both a necessary and the optimum solution to Bournemouth, Poole and Dorset s contemporary challenges It can pave the way for sustainable growth

16 WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE The objective assessment is critical. Up to date evidence must be gathered Duty to co-operate must be met. Sufficient provision must be made. Greenfield & Green Belt must be released if necessary taking into consideration demands on scale, quality, size & tenure as well as viability. Maintaining a 5 year housing land supply remains key.

17 CHALLENGES FOR DORSET SACs, SPAs, SSSIs, NNRs, AONB, world heritage site, SNCIs South East Dorset Green Belt (168 square kilometres in and around Upton, Wimborne, Ferndown, Poole, Bournemouth, Christchurch Wareham. Valued historic towns Quality of the urban environment Something has to give

18 EXISTING COMMITMENTS AND PLANNED URBAN EXTENSIONS

19 WHAT CAN HELP Acknowledge the wider community interest. Put into proportion the scale of objection versus the scale of benefit. Understand the silent majority who need housing & give them a voice. Broadcast the benefits of development. Identify infrastructure projects benefitting from housing development let the community know where the investment is coming from.

20 THE ROLE OF THE LEP STRATEGIC LEADER Business Plan, Planning Charter, and draft Strategic Economic Plan Commitment to growth: conurbation, rural area, coast. Key assets: Universities and colleges, Bournemouth airport and aviation park, Poole Port regeneration, Portland Port, Market town pilot

21 THE ALTERNATIVE THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE