CIH South East Conference Affordable housing rents - how are they working? Helen Collins, Director Housing Consultancy Savills 4 th March 2014

Transcription

1 CIH South East Conference Affordable housing rents - how are they working? Helen Collins, Director Housing Consultancy Savills 4 th March 2014

2 Presentation outline Vox pop SE Context Trends and forecasts Poverty, affordability, housing costs Consequences and scenarios Future?

3 Affordable rent regime - you say So we charge the highest rents to the most vulnerable people being rehoused from the waiting list and guarantee that they can t work AR is a fudge it s a tool to strip RPs balance sheets in lieu of capital grants its applied differently depending on which LA you work in and only serves to add to the probability of future unfair rent challenges by tenants who could be living in the same road with the same landlord paying more for 2 bed flats than 4 bed houses Currently a significant gap between govt policy & the way LA's are approaching nominations. They really want to continue making the same nominations as previously, often benefit dependent families, despite higher rents & increasing benefit restrictions which clearly puts the sustainability of their long term tenancy at risk. The latest issue is draft S106 clauses which seek to prevent HAs taking deposits from AR tenants Nothing wrong with intermediate rent for those lower income working households unable to access social housing and struggling to pay private rents but packaged up as affordable rent for people on the very lowest incomes/benefits is the wrong product for that group of people

4 South East England Councils We have the UK s largest population, projected to continue to grow by 1m+ over next 20 years to nearly 10m. Especially high growth in older people eg 80% more 75+ year olds by a timebomb that needs planning for. And significant levels of net international migration, which although often economically important also brings implications for public service delivery/resourcing. Whilst the South East is still performing relatively well on some key economic indicators, SEEC s Data Dashboard still shows high absolute levels of: Unemployment claimants 140,000 people Deprivation 480,000 young/old people in income deprivation, and relative increases in deprivation compared to rest of England No qualifications 450,000 people lack any formal qualifications We re still building the most homes in England, albeit some 8,000 pa below 30,000 pa peak in But particular concern re reductions in affordable homes built at 5,000 pa, some 1,000 less than 2 years ago need investment to meet population needs Source: SEEC

5 High levels of deprivation Source: SEEC

6 Private rent levels Source: VOA

7 Rents and earnings comparison 2 bed house Social rent Affordable rent (80% of MR) Market rent (median) LHA Median gross Lower quartile weekly earnings weekly earnings Newbury (West Berks) Oxford Reading Margate (Thanet) Brighton Portsmouth Source: HCA SDR/VOA/ASHE 13

8 Rents and earnings comparison 3 bed house Social rent Affordable rent (80% of MR) Market rent (median) LHA Median gross weekly earnings Lower quartile weekly earnings Newbury (West Berks) Oxford Reading Margate (Thanet) Brighton Portsmouth Source: HCA SDR/VOA/ASHE 13

9 Profile of local markets with high concentrations of excluded households Excluded households (per annum) Excluded households as % of all private stock House price to earnings ratio Average house price of excluded households % in private rented sector (2011) House price vs. peak (Dec 2013) West Berkshire 1, % ,362 15% -2% Oxfordshire (Oxford) 4, % ,445 19% 0% Reading 1, % ,816 27% -6% Kent (Thanet) 12, % ,828 18% -8% Brighton & Hove 2, % ,272 31% 4% Source: Portsmouth VDA 2, % ,029 26% -11%

10 What they can afford to pay vs. Market rents What they could pay* (monthly rent) Cost of monthly rent (2 bed) Cost of monthly rent (3 bed) West Berkshire 1, Oxfordshire (Oxford) 1, ,182 Reading Kent (Thanet) Brighton & Hove 1, ,237 Portsmouth *average values

11 UK Mainstream House Price Inflation

12 5 year mainstream forecasts

13 Rents (LA/RP combined) vs. RPI and Earnings Growth 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% LA/RP average rent 4.0% 2.0% RPI 0.0% -2.0% Household Earnings Growth -4.0%

14 JRF Housing and poverty programme: goals AIMS to set out realistic policy and practice approaches to delivering more effective housing responses to those living in poverty in the UK. Housing supply is a crucial part of the picture: How do we provide for the housing needs of people living in poverty in future development frameworks? Source: JFR

15 What is poverty? When resources are not enough to meet your needs income easiest to measure In income terms for (2011/12) 60% median income: o 172 pw for a single person with no children o 308 pw for lone parent with two children Around 5th UK population experience poverty in a given year Source: JRF A tenth experience persistent poverty i.e. income below poverty line for 3 out of 4 years

16 Defining features of UK poverty 6.1 million people in poverty are in working households. 1 in 3 low paid workers are aged Across UK around 20% of employees (5 million) earn less than the living wage South East has second highest average earnings in UK at 537pw (UK average 517 pw) A low pay, no pay cycle for many Source: JRF

17 Links between housing and poverty Housing cost induced poverty has been growing for two decades An extra 3.1 million people in the UK are in poverty after their housing costs have been paid. Rent matters most in terms pushing people into poverty after their housing costs have been paid Source: JRF Efforts to reduce poverty = o limiting rent costs o maintaining good conditions

18 Things to remember Poverty is dynamic not static Work matters, but is not necessarily a route out of poverty Housing costs, especially rents, matter Location = housing effect on employment Markets are important but can they deliver housing for those on low incomes? Source: JRF

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20 Thank you Helen Collins