Forum on CPF and Retirement Adequacy
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1 ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS IDEAS Forum on CPF and Retirement Adequacy Tuesday, 22 July 2014 Shangri-La Hotel
2 IPS Forum on CPF and Retirement Adequacy Housing and the CPF System Associate Professor Lum Sau Kim Director of Graduate Programmes Department of Real Estate School of Design & Environment National University of Singapore
3 CPF and Housing Lum Sau Kim Department of Real Estate, NUS Forum on CPF and Retirement Adequacy Institute of Policy Studies, NUS 22 July 2014 SRPI Presentation, 14 May 2010 OCBC Centre Page 3
4 Annual CPF Withdrawals 1960 to 2013 CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 4
5 Housing is dominant use of funds Strong pro-homeownership policy bias since 1968 Almost unfettered use of funds for housing finance Lack of viable alternative assets Sexy expected returns: Liberalization and marketization of HDB housing Asset enhancement Prolonged boom State largesse through housing grants In-the-money put option The Singapore land myth CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 5
6 Implications Constrained retirement adequacy Low cash balances About half of active members cannot meet MS at 55 Poorly diversified household portfolios Nest-egg is vulnerable to housing sector shocks and wider systemic risks Exposure varies by cohort Illiquid monetisation channels needed Pro-cyclical and potentially regressive CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 6
7 Current monetisation options 30% of non-rental HDB flats are owned by elderly citizens aged 55. Of these, > 220,000 are fully paid-up % of elderly households (ehhs) sublet flat or spare room(s) 2. Sell and downsize* In 2012, 1,938 ehhs sold flats. 1,077 bought Studio Apartments; 518 bought other flats, 263 became occupiers in and 80 rented other flats 3. Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS)* From 2009, owners of 3R (or smaller) flats can sell tail-end of lease to HDB but retain 30-year lease Take-up from 2009 to 2012: 471 ehhs and in 2013: 240 ehhs * Silver Housing Bonus (SHB) available under Options 2 & 3. CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 7
8 Why are options unpopular? Housing equity tends to get drawn down slowly. Is it for financial preparedness? Room subletting: Loss of privacy, no spare room, security concerns With SA or LBS, longevity risk remains Design & accessibility issues with SA and estates Loss of medical benefits as rent/annuity boosts income Bequeath motives Leave equity in house as precautionary savings Low economic literacy CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 8
9 Resurrecting Reverse Mortgages Owner-occupiers borrow against value of housing equity Proceeds are drawn down as lump sum, annuity &/or line of credit Quantum depends on borrower & property characteristics, house price inflation and interest rates Repaid with interest only upon sale, moving out, death or maturity Home-owners can age-in-place 1 st launched in Jan 97 by NTUC Income for private housing Extended to HDB owners in Mar 2006 Not well subscribed Pricing and margin calls In US, banks offered RMs as forward mortgage business fell CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 9
10 Issues with RMs Not well understood by elderly Potential for abuse means institutional support needed Require consumer safeguards and in-depth financial assessments Adverse selection and moral hazard problems Who underwrites declines in collateral value? Should proceeds be indexed for inflation? Should annuity count as income? CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 10
11 A wicked problem Monetisation requires high prices/rents but this lowers affordability and constrains flexibility to re-boot housing paradigm. Scenario 1: TFR at 1.24 births per woman, no in-migration Scenario 2: TFR at 1.24 births per woman, 30,000 in-migration per year Source: Chris Gee and Lum Sau Kim, Market Influences in Singapore s Public Housing System, 2013 CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 11
12 Leasehold value decay Leaseholds (LHs) are decaying financial assets HDB LH interest is only in flat, not in the land or common areas Credit constraints on LHs with remaining balance < 60 years increase prudence but depress value Obsolescence and speed of SERS What are we bequeathing when lease expires? Lease pricing affects nearly all monetisation options HDB LBS example: CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 12
13 How to price HDB LHs? CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 13
14 Quarterly Withdrawals and Indices 1975Q1 to 2014Q1 Volatilities and correlations have risen which will jack up risk premiums. CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 14
15 Future path of housing prices Increasing selling pressure on assets for consumption May not be an asset meltdown But price declines can be amplified by higher interest rate regime Complex transmission loops between housing and economy Expect clustering, i.e. the simultaneous re-balancing of household portfolios when we hit major demographic bumps or tipping points Impacts vary by cohort Herding & animal spirits Managing price expectations is key CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 15
16 CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 16
17 CPF & Housing, IPS Forum on CPF & Retirement Adequacy, 22 July 2014 Page 17
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