Achievable Potential Study

Transcription

1 Achievable Potential Study Achievable Potential Methodology April 26, 2016

2 Objectives Present the methodology used to develop achievable potential To consider in developing achievable potential: Development and use of adoption curves Mapping of measures to adoption curves, and to archetype programs Historic performance of programs Non-incentive program enhancements Inclusion and exclusion of measures Adding new measures to archetype programs Budget unconstrained and constrained scenarios 2

3 Adoption Curves 3

4 Purpose of Adoption Curves Adoption Curves Adoption curves: Estimate of achievable annual participation in archetype programs from 2015 to Objective: Develop adoption curves to estimate particiaption in each archetype program from 2015 to The estimated participation will be used in the model to derive the estimated achievable potential savings for each archetype program. Key items taken into consideration: Historic program participation Transition from previous framework to CFF Design and launch period for new/enhanced programs Non-incentive influences Incentive level 4

5 Adoption Curves Adoption curves represent the percentage of participation, of eligible customers in a program. The adoption curves typically includes: A program launch period An accelerated increase in participation until a peak participation rate is reached A decreased in accelerated participation and plateau as maximum participation is approached Programs that started in Ontario during the previous framework will have moved passed the launch period and will be on a slope of increased participation. Program enhancements aim to accelerate the rate of participation. New programs to be launched during the Conservation First Framework will start at the beginning of the launch period. 5

6 Participation of Eligible Customers Status Quo Adoption Curve: Program Design Started in 2010 Program Design and Launch Phase 100% Program Maturity Phase 80% 60% Program Delivery Phase Cumulative Adoption 40% 20% Incremental Adoption Rate Year 6

7 Participation of Eligible Customers Status Quo Adoption Curve: Program Status in % 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% Cumulative Adoption 40% 40% 20% 20% Incremental Adoption Rate Year 7

8 Participation of Eligible Customers Enhanced Program Adoption Curve 100% 80% Enhanced Program Adoption 60% 40% Status Quo Adoption 20% Year 8

9 Participation of Eligible Customers Derive Status Quo Adoption Curve 100% m = Maximum Market Share 80% 60% 40% 20% Historic Program Performance Year 9

10 Theory: Bass Diffusion Model Parameters: p = coefficient of innovation It s an external effect An external effect where program archetypes can influence adoption q = coefficient of imitation It s an internal effect It is considered as an inherent property of the market and technology m = maximum market share of eligible population 10

11 Mapping Measures to Adoption Curves and Archetype Programs Sector Measures Adoption Curves Archetype Programs Residential Commercial Industrial

12 Commercial and Industrial Residential Available Historic Participation Data: Develop Market Adoption Curves Available Historic Participation Data by Measure / Program Adoption Curve Furnace with ECM ECM Tier 1 CAC CACI Tier 2 CAC CACII Outdoor clothesline umbrella stand or clothesline kits Air dry ENERGY STAR specialty and standard spiral CFL CFL Electric water heater blankets DHW blanket ENERGY STAR qualified ceiling fans Fans ENERGY STAR qualified fixtures Fixture ENERGY STAR general purpose and specialty LEDs LED Lighting control products Light control Hot water pipe wraps Pipes Advanced power bars Powerbar Weather stripping (foam or V-strip packages; door frame kits) Shell Electric baseboard programmable thermostats Thermo Heavy-duty outdoor timers Timer Window air conditioner pick-up (Home/Retailer) Air conditioner Dehumidifier pick-up (Home/Retailer) Dehumidifier Freezer pick-up (Home/Retailer) Freezer Fridge pick-up (Home/Retailer) Refrigerator Average adoption rate AC, dehumidifier, freezer and refrigerator measures Miscellaneous appliances Average adoption rate for all other measures adoption curves Miscellaneous all 75% adoption rate (Adjusted to achieve full savings in second year) Home energy report (HER) Developed provincial level market adoption curves using historic participation rates. Market adoption curves aligned with availability of historic program participation data. 22 Residential market adoption curves Available Historic Participation Data by Measure / Program LED (SBL Program) CFL (SBL Program) Other lighting measures (SBL Program) Custom track measures (Retrofit Program) Engineered track measures (Retrofit Program) Prescriptive track measures (Retrofit Program) Adoption Curve Small business: CFL Small business: LED Small business: Other Retrofit custom Retrofit engineered Retrofit prescriptive 6 Commercial and Industrial market adoption curves 12

13 Sample of Residential Data Set Historic Participation Data LDC Year Measure Units Eligible Population LDC ECM 26 6,953 LDC ECM 19 6,953 LDC ECM 83 6,953 LDC ECM 84 6,953 LDC Tier 1 CAC LDC Tier 1 CAC LDC Tier 1 CAC LDC Tier 2 CAC LDC Tier 2 CAC LDC ECM 1 1,477 LDC ECM 2 1,477 LDC ECM 3 1,477 LDC Tier 1 CAC LDC Tier 2 CAC LDC Tier 2 CAC LDC ECM ,419 LDC ECM ,419 LDC ECM ,419 LDC ECM ,419 LDC Tier 1 CAC ,381 LDC Tier 1 CAC 55 20,381 LDC Tier 1 CAC 57 20,381 LDC Tier 1 CAC 46 20,381 LDC Tier 2 CAC ,381 LDC Tier 2 CAC ,381 LDC Tier 2 CAC ,381 LDC ECM 178 7,868 LDC ECM 147 7,868 LDC ECM 126 7,868 LDC ECM 145 7,868 LDC Tier 1 CAC 47 5,849 LDC Tier 1 CAC 17 5,849 LDC Tier 1 CAC 16 5,849 LDC Tier 1 CAC 15 5,849 LDC Tier 2 CAC 66 5,849 LDC Tier 2 CAC 59 5,849 LDC Tier 2 CAC 78 5,849 Historic program participation data set for Limited data for Number of units converted to energy efficiency version due to programs. Eligible population was developed as part of developing each LDC s energy use profile, using: Total population End use saturation End use fuel share Equipment measure life 13

14 Eligible Population Total Population = (Premise Count) x (End Use Saturation) x (End Use Fuel Share) Total population: The product of premise counts, end use saturation and end use fuel share. End use saturation: % of households with the end use present. End use fuel share: % of households with the end use present that are electric fueled. Eligible Population = 1 x (Total Population) Equipment Type Average Measure Life Eligible population: Fraction of total population based on average measure life by equipment type. Equipment type average measure life: Average measure life of all measures associated with an equipment type. For example, the equipment type commercial interior lighting includes various kinds of lighting measures. The average life of these measures defines the equipment type average measure life. 14

15 Residential Sector Market Adoption Curve Parameters from Historic Participation The parameters p and q and m are derived from a statistical analysis of historic participation in provincial programs. Adoption Curve p New p* q m ECM % CACI % CACII % Air dry % CFL % DHW blanket % Fans % Fixture % LED % Light control % Pipes % Powerbar % Shell % Thermo % Timer % Air conditioner % Dehumidifier % Freezer % Refrigerator % *New p: revised p-value due to program enhancements. Based on input from experts (choice model survey). 15

16 Commercial and Industrial Sectors Market Adoption Curve Equation with LDC Specific Participation: Status Quo Adoption Curve p New p* q m Small business: CFL % Small business: LED % Small business: Other % Retrofit custom % Retrofit engineered % Retrofit prescriptive % Parameters derived from total provincial participation numbers to define adoption curve equation. Example: Retrofit custom adoption curve equation LDC specific historic participation rates are used in equation for S t-1 to derive S(t). For example: LDC 1 actual participation in 2014 is used to derive calculated participation in 2015, and this value is used to determine calculated value in etc. *New p: revised p-value due to program enhancements. Based on input from experts (choice model survey). 16

17 Commercial and Industrial Sectors Market Adoption Curve Equation with LDC Specific Participation: Enhanced Adoption Curve p New p* q m Small business: CFL % Small business: LED % Small business: Other % Retrofit custom % Retrofit engineered % Retrofit prescriptive % Using a choice model survey, input was obtained from expert representatives to determine attributes to develop more effective archetype programs. A statistical analysis of the input derived a new p-value, which is used to develop the equation for the enhanced adoption curve and 2016 are considered transition years for LDCs to develop enhanced programs. Status quo adoption curve is applied up to 2016 and the enhanced adoption curve from Example: Retrofit custom adoption curve equation *New p: revised p-value due to program enhancements. Based on input from experts (choice model survey). 17

18 Adoption Curve Examples LDC Example Adoption Curve (Residential) LDC 1 Tier 2 CAC LDC 2 Tier 2 CAC Dehumidifier LED 18

19 Market Share Example: Applying Adoption Curves to LDC Example: LDC 1 Tier 2 CAC Status Quo Adoption Curve Enhanced Adoption Curve Year Market Share Incremental Adoption Enhanced Market Share Incremental Adoption Enhanced Adoption Curve m = 6.3% Actual % 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% % 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% % 0.41% 1.01% 0.41% % 0.57% 1.58% 0.57% % 0.74% 2.49% 0.91% % 0.78% 3.40% 0.91% % 0.75% 4.23% 0.83% % 0.67% 4.90% 0.67% % 0.54% 5.40% 0.50% % 0.41% 5.74% 0.34% % 0.29% 5.96% 0.22% % 0.19% 6.08% 0.12% % 0.12% 6.16% 0.08% % 0.07% 6.20% 0.04% % 0.05% 6.23% 0.03% % 0.03% 6.24% 0.01% % 0.01% 6.25% 0.01% % 0.01% 6.25% 0.00% % 0.01% 6.26% 0.01% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.01% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% % 0.00% 6.26% 0.00% Status Quo Adoption Curve Incremental Adoption (Enhanced) Year Incremental adoption rate: Annual incremental adoption of eligible population. 19

20 Market Share Example: Applying Adoption Curves to LDC Enhanced Adoption Curve Example: LDC 2 Tier 2 CAC Year Estimated Market Share Incremental Adoption m = 6.3% Actual % 1.17% % 0.00% % 1.08% % 1.52% % 0.77% % 0.60% % 0.43% % 0.28% % 0.17% % 0.10% % 0.06% % 0.03% % 0.02% % 0.01% % 0.01% % 0.00% % 0.01% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% Enhanced Adoption Curve Year Incremental Adoption Compared to LDC1, LDC 2 had higher participation in Resulting in LDC 2 to be further advanced on the slope of the curve when compared to LDC 1. LDC 2 s incremental adoption rate has peaked and is declining, while LDC 1 s incremental adoption rate is expected to peak during 2015/

21 Market Share Example: Applying Adoption Curves to LDC Enhanced Adoption Curve Example: LDC 2 Dehumidifier Year Estimated Market Share Incremental Adoption Actual % 0.01% % 0.01% % 0.00% % 0.03% % 0.03% % 0.05% % 0.08% % 0.11% % 0.16% % 0.23% % 0.34% % 0.47% % 0.63% % 0.81% % 0.96% % 1.04% % 0.99% % 0.83% % 0.60% % 0.38% % 0.21% % 0.12% % 0.06% % 0.03% % 0.02% % 0.00% Year m = 8% Enhanced Adoption Curve Incremental Adoption 21

22 Market Share Example: Applying Adoption Curves to LDC Example: LDC 2 LED Enhanced Adoption Curve Actual Year Estimated Market Share Incremental Adoption % 0.53% % 0.37% % 0.12% % 0.43% % 0.62% % 0.77% % 0.93% % 1.10% % 1.29% % 1.46% % 1.62% % 1.72% % 1.76% % 1.74% % 1.63% % 1.47% % 1.26% % 1.05% % 0.83% % 0.65% % 0.50% % 0.37% % 0.27% % 0.19% % 0.15% % 0.10% Year m = 23% Enhanced Adoption Curve Incremental Adoption 22

23 Introducing a New Measure to an Existing Archetype Program Provincial Adoption Curve: Fans Measure: High Efficiency Bathroom Exhaust Fan Year Incremental Adoption Incremental Adoption Year Rate Rate Year % N/A Year % N/A Year % % Year % % Year % % Year % % Year % % Year % % Example: Adding New Measure to Consumer Archetype Program Provincial adoption curve applied to measure, starting in Year 3. Assuming Year 1 and 2 were program design and launching years, and it is not applicable to an individual measure. 23

24 Archetype Programs 24

25 Archetype Programs Residential Commercial and Industrial Audit and Direct Install Audit and Energy Partners Consumer Retrofit System and Equipment Small Business Whole-home New Construction Behavioural Low Income Aboriginal New Construction 25

26 Commercial and Industrial Residential Adoption Curves Available Historic Participation Data by Measure / Program Adoption Curve Furnace with ECM ECM Tier 1 CAC CACI Tier 2 CAC CACII Outdoor clothesline umbrella stand or clothesline kits Air dry ENERGY STAR specialty and standard spiral CFL CFL Electric water heater blankets DHW blanket ENERGY STAR qualified ceiling fans Fans ENERGY STAR qualified fixtures Fixture ENERGY STAR general purpose and specialty LEDs LED Lighting control products Light control Hot water pipe wraps Pipes Advanced power bars Powerbar Weather stripping (foam or V-strip packages; door frame kits) Shell Electric baseboard programmable thermostats Thermo Heavy-duty outdoor timers Timer Window air conditioner pick-up (Home/Retailer) Air conditioner Dehumidifier pick-up (Home/Retailer) Dehumidifier Freezer pick-up (Home/Retailer) Freezer Fridge pick-up (Home/Retailer) Refrigerator Average adoption rate AC, dehumidifier, freezer and refrigerator measures Miscellaneous appliances Average adoption rate for all other measures adoption curves Miscellaneous all 75% adoption rate (Adjusted to achieve full savings in second year) Home energy report (HER) Available Historic Participation Data by Measure / Program LED (SBL Program) CFL (SBL Program) Other lighting measures (SBL Program) Custom track measures (Retrofit Program) Engineered track measures (Retrofit Program) Prescriptive track measures (Retrofit Program) Adoption Curve Small business: CFL Small business: LED Small business: Other Retrofit custom Retrofit engineered Retrofit prescriptive 26

27 Mapping Measures to Adoption Curves and Archetype Programs Sample of Commercial Sector Mapping Table Measure Adoption Curve Archetype Program ENERGY STAR Scanner Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit ENERGY STAR Copiers Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit ENERGY STAR desktop Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit ENERGY STAR Fax Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit ENERGY STAR Monitors Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit ENERGY STAR Printers Retrofit Prescriptive Retrofit Smart Strip Plug Outlets Retrofit Engineered Retrofit Electrically Commutated Plug fans in data centers Retrofit Custom Retrofit High Efficiency Hot Food Holding Cabinet Retrofit Custom Retrofit Efficient Steamer (ENERGY STAR) Retrofit Custom Retrofit ENERGY STAR Combination Oven Retrofit Custom Retrofit ENERGY STAR Convection Oven Retrofit Custom Retrofit High Efficiency Fryer (ENERGY STAR) Retrofit Custom Retrofit High Efficiency Griddle (ENERGY STAR) Retrofit Custom Retrofit High Efficiency Induction Cooking Retrofit Custom Retrofit High Efficiency Air Cooled Chiller, 100 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Air Cooled Chiller, 150 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Centrifugal Chiller, 175 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Centrifugal Chiller, 300 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Centrifugal Chiller, 500 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Centrifugal Chiller, 600 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Reciprocating Chiller, 175 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Reciprocating Chiller, 300 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit High Efficiency Water Cooled Reciprocating Chiller, 50 Tons Retrofit Engineered Retrofit VFD on Cooling Tower Fan Retrofit Custom Retrofit 27

28 Example Savings Calculation 28

29 LDC Specific Electricity Use Profile LDC Subsectors Load disaggregated by sector, subsector, end use and equipment type, specific to each LDC. LDC load profiles were developed with input from LDCs, and draft versions were reviewed with LDCs to develop final versions. LDC End Uses 29

30 LDC Equipment Types LDC Specific Electricity Use Profile (continue) 30

31 LDC Baseline Forecast and Load Share LDC Baseline Forecast and Load Share Using load profiles and LDC kwh load forecasts, developed baseline forecast by sector, subsector, end use, equipment type, and vintage. This is used to define what share of the load measure savings is applied to. 31

32 Vintage Groups Baseline Forecast and Vintage Groups Baseline Forecast = (Premise count) x (EUI) x (Growth Rate) Baseline forecast (kwh): For residential sector it is the product of premise counts, energy end use intensity (EUI) and growth rate. Calculated at equipment type level. (Commercial sector uses sq.ft. and industrial sector uses kwh.) Divided into vintage groups. New: Based on growth rates. Turnover: Based on average measure life for equipment type. Early retirement: Based on a factor of 0.5% of stock. Remaining: Portion remaining after subtracting other vintages from total. 32

33 LDC Specific Adoption Curves Using Ontario market adoption equation with LDC specific historic program participation to develop LDC specific adoption curves. LDC Adoption Curves 33

34 Measures Mapping Parameters Measure research defines parameters (savings, cost and measure life). Measure permutations mapped to subsector, end use and equipment type. Develop competition groups. Measures mapped to adoption curves and archetype programs. LDC Measure Mapping Parameters 34

35 Measure Ranking by TRC Measure in each vintage competition group ranked according to TRC. LDC Measure Ranking 35

36 Measure Savings Calculation In each vintage group calculates savings for first ranked TRC. Remove this savings from available load for next measure in TRC ranking, to calculate savings for the next measure. Annual Savings per Measure (kwh/year) = (kwh Load share) x (% Incremental adoption rate) x (% Measure applicability) x (% Savings of measure) (414,786 kwh) x (0.62%) x (5.9%) x (75.0%) = 114 kwh/year 36

37 Archetype Program Savings: Technical and Economic Potential Annual Savings per Archetype Program = Sum of Measures Included in Archetype Program Scenario Description Technical Potential Model potential savings for each measure that is technically feasible. Sum up potential savings to derive technical potential. Economic Potential Determine TRC and net benefit of each measure. Include measure in economic potential if: Measure vintage bundle has TRC > 0.75, or Measure is part of an existing CDM program with a minimum net benefit (Residential: -$ 600; Commercial -$ 10,000; Industrial -$500). Model potential for all measures included in economic potential scenario. Sum up potential savings to derive economic potential. Measures included in economic potential scenario are included in achievable potential scenario. 37

38 Achievable Potential Scenario Description Achievable Potential: Unconstrained Model potential savings for each measure with LDC specific adoption curves. Sum up potential savings for measures within a program to derive unconstrained achievable potential per archetype program. Rank measures for all sectors and their cost in order of costeffectiveness (based on TRC). Achievable Potential: Budget Constrained Identify all measures that can be adopted for less than LDC's CDM budget. Sum of savings of cost-effective measures under LDC-budget to derive budget-constrained achievable potential for each archetype program. 38

39 Achievable Potential: Budget Constrained (Example) Example: LDC with CDM budget of $ 58,000,000 Row Labels TRC Program Costs Cumulative Costs Include in Budget- Constrained Room AC (w/ louvered sides) 13 SEER from 12 SEER code 1.53 $ 68,941 $ 21,978,550 Yes ENERGY STAR Convection Oven 1.53 $ 286,279 $ 22,264,830 Yes High Efficiency Refrigeration Compressors-Discus 1.52 $ 756,816 $ 23,021,646 Yes Heat Recovery Unit 1.35 $ 29,573,380 $ 52,595,027 Yes Lower Wattage HID lamps- 320 W Pulse Start Metal Halide 1.34 $ 84,894 $ 52,679,921 Yes ECM MOTORS FOR HVAC APPLICATION (FAN POWERED VAV BOX) 1.32 $ 49,621 $ 52,729,542 Yes ECM MOTORS FOR HVAC APPLICATION (FAN MOTOR REPLACEMENT 1.32 $ 49,631 $ 52,779,172 Yes ecube 1.29 $ 744,545 $ 53,523,717 Yes Induction High Bay Lighting 1.29 $ 59,319 $ 53,583,036 Yes Door Heater Controls for Freezers 1.28 $ 569,436 $ 54,152,473 Yes LED Recessed Downlights 1.28 $ 3,836,487 $ 57,988,959 Yes 15 HP ODP-High efficiency Motor (4 pole, 1800 rpm) 1.28 $ 43,460 $ 58,032,420 No High Efficiency Transformer 1.26 $ 3,264,130 $ 61,296,550 No ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer 1.26 $ 296,170 $ 61,592,720 No Reach-in Shaded Pole to PSC Evaporator Fan Motor 1.26 $ 5,197,426 $ 66,790,145 No High Efficiency Air Source Heat Pump (12 EER, 3.6 COP) 1.20 $ 1,601,268 $ 68,391,414 No 75 HP TEFC-High efficiency Motor (4 pole, 1800 rpm) 1.15 $ 46,603 $ 68,438,016 No Photoluminescent Exit Sign 1.14 $ 2,938,214 $ 71,376,230 No 39

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