March 20, Q1 Cost Effectiveness Advisory Committee Meeting

Transcription

1 March 20, 2019 Q1 Cost Effectiveness Advisory Committee Meeting

2 Agenda 9:00 AM (30 min) Welcome/Agenda Review 9:30 (30 min) Intro to NEEA Savings and Cost Effectiveness 10:00 (20 min) Reporting Savings and Cost Effectiveness 10:20 (5 mins) Overview of Key Assumptions Quarterly Report 10:25 (40 min) 11:05 (10 mins) Break Annual Report Key Assumption Review NEEA Baseline Updates (Net Market Effects) Market Assumption Changes Savings Rate Updates 11:15 (45 min) Natural Gas Cost Effectiveness 12:00 PM (20 min) Market Research and Evaluation (MRE) Plans for :20 (10 min) Wrap up and Feedback 12:30 (30 min) Lunch 2

3 Ice Breaker Name Organization Your highest priority topic or question for today 3

4 Brief Updates or Announcements 4

5 5 Annual Reporting Process

6 Annual Reporting Process and Engagement with CEAC 16 OCTOBER MARCH APRIL 2019 Review recent key assumption updates and source documents Overview of Market Transformation Savings Accounting and Reporting Review updates to key assumptions for 2018 savings reporting Review 2018 Energy Savings for the NEEA portfolio Review any cost effectiveness updates Review key market trends and new findings Discuss adjustments to savings forecast and progress to Business Cycle goals Local Program Data Collection Individual Funder Reporting 6

7 Key Assumptions Review Process Development RTF NEEA analysis External studies Validation 3 rd Party Reporting/ Review CEAC Documentation Online Meeting Materials 7

8 Introduction to NEEA Savings

9 9 The Alliance

10 NEEA s Role NEEA will achieve its mission, to Mobilize the Northwest to become increasingly energy efficient for a sustainable future, by focusing on two strategic goals: 10

11 Alliance Strategic Goals Goal 1 Fill the energy-efficiency pipeline with new products, services, practices and approaches. Goal 2 Create market conditions that will accelerate and sustain the market adoption of emerging energyefficiency products, services and practices. 11

12 Market Transformation: a Long-Term Engagement Codes & Standards Market Share Transformation Market Natural Baseline Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards 12 Time

13 NEEA Portfolio Criteria Portfolio Risk Measurability Technology Market Late life savings Cost effectiveness Regional Equity (State level) Rural-Urban Equity Strategic market or infrastructure opportunity Savings Cost effectiveness 13

14 Why Does NEEA Estimate Savings? NEEA estimates and reports savings for two primary purposes: 1. To support funders regulatory requirements 2. One way to track progress in a market 14

15 How Does NEEA Calculate Savings? Fundamental approach: Net Market Effects or Remaining Savings LOCAL PROGRAM SAVINGS BASELINE SAVINGS TOTAL REGIONAL SAVINGS 15

16 How Does NEEA Calculate Savings? Two different baseline methodologies: MARKET TRANSFORMATION APPROACH Uses the Naturally Occurring Baseline POWER PLAN APPROACH Uses a Fixed Baseline 16

17 MARKET TRANSFORMATION APPROACH ACTUAL MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE Net Market Effects Co-Created Local Savings Programs Total Regional Savings MARKET SHARE BASELINE 5 years 10 years 15 years 20+ years TIME 17

18 POWER PLAN APPROACH Actual Market Share MARKET SHARE Program Savings POWER PLAN BASELINE Remaining Savings Total EE Savings TIME 18

19 19 Questions?

20 20 Intro to NEEA Cost Effectiveness

21 Calculating Benefit/Cost Ratios NEEA calculates cost effectiveness at the measure, program and portfolio level Perspective: Total Resource Cost Regional 20-year horizon Tool: Northwest Power and Conservation Council s Regional ProCost Model 21

22 Calculating Benefit/Cost Ratios Regional Administrative Costs» NEEA Budget» Local Program Administration Costs Costs to Consumer» First Cost» Change in O&M» Non-electric Benefits ProCost Assumptions» Carbon» Avoided Cost» Line Loss Benefits 22

23 Cost Effectiveness at the Portfolio Level Phase NEEA Costs Portfolio Benefit-Cost Ratio All Costs and Benefits Full Scale Market Development Emerging Tech/ Programs in Development Previous Investments Other NEEA Investment Activities (e.g. Stock Assessments) Heat Pump Water Heater Ductless Heat Pumps Reduce Wattage Lamp Replacement Super-Efficient Dryers Luminaire Level Lighting Controls Next Step Homes Retail Products Portfolio Window Attachments Dedicated Outdoor Air Systems Extended Motor Product Labeling Manufactured Homes Televisions Residential CFLs Efficient Homes Drive Power Commercial Desktop Power Supplies Building Operator Certification RETA CRES Included Heat Pump Water Heater Ductless Heat Pumps Reduce Wattage Lamp Replacement No benefits included in portfolio B/C ratio No benefits included in portfolio B/C ratio 23

24 Measure The Annual Reports Contain Key Assumptions Application DHP Zonal - HZ1CZ1 DetailsMeasure Savings Component DHP Zonal - HZ1 ProCost Inputs Sources Savings for Period 1 2,029 (kwh/yr.) Measure Life (yrs.) 15 Capital Cost $3, Annual O&M -$45.08 Shape Pointer R-All-HVAC-ERconvertDHP-HZ1-All-N Non-E Val ($/yr.) $38.83 Northwest Heat Pump Project Average of cost for 1:1 system expressed in 2012 dollars. Regional Technical Forum Cost Inputs Source ResSFExistingHVAC_v4_1.xlsm. O&M and Non-E Vals from RTF assumptions. Reviewed: ILLUME Advising MPER 4 ACE Model Review. 24

25 25 Questions?

26 26 Savings Reporting

27 NEEA Has Two Primary Reports They all contain the Calculations and the Key Assumptions Sources and Inputs. 1. NEEA baseline reports 2. Power Plan baseline reports 27

28 28 Each Annual Report includes a summary memo and spreadsheet

29 Three Elements Common to Each Report Type 1. Summary Tables 2. Calculations 3. Key Assumptions 29

30 Spreadsheets have calculations for as many as 200 measures Measure Detail Regional Summary Sector Initiative Measure Product Tier Tier 1 Code or Standard 0 Residential Ductless Heat Pumps Install Ductless Heat Pump in Single Family Home with Existing Electric Forced Air Furnace Heat- Any Climate Zone- Weighted for Supplemental Fuel Use DHP FAF Load Shape(s) R-All-HVAC-ERconvertDHP-HZ1-All-N, R-All-HVAC-ERconvertDHP-HZ2-All-N, R-All-HVAC-ERconvertDHP-HZ3-All-N Measure Life (yrs.) 15 Year 2018 Forecast/ Estimate Forecast Regional Units 1,789 Local Programs 1,470 NEEA Baseline 151 Retirements - Net Market Effects Units 292 Savings Rate (kwh/ Unit-Year) 2,456 Allocation Funder Share 100% Funder Savings Share of Total Regional Savings (amw) 0.5 Share of Local Programs (amw) 0.4 Baseline Savings (amw) 0.0 Share of Net Market Effects (amw)

31 Spreadsheets include data sources (also available online) Measure Detail Sector Program Product(s) Code Standard Residential Retail Product Portfolio Freezers- Chest No No Due Diligence Last Evaluation -Evaluation in process by Apex Analytics. -Research into Action RPP Pilot Evaluation. -Research into Action NEEA Baseline Analysis Support. -Research into Action Market Test Assessment. -Market approach presented to the Market Analysis Subcommittee in 2017/2018 Data Description -Total Sales: County-level shipment data from the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. -Market Share: Regional-level estimates Sources Track Units -Analysis by: Energy Solutions Consumer Products UES- Energy Solutions. (dataset). -Data from: ICF Retail Products Platform. (dataset). -Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers Sales Report. (dataset). Savings Rate Baseline -Analysis by: Energy Solutions Consumer Products UES- Energy Solutions. (dataset). -Data from: ICF Retail Products Platform. (dataset). AND Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers Sales Report. (dataset). The NEEA baseline is based on the 2015 market share. 31

32 Where can I find this information? The reports are: ed Online» Stored in the savings reports section of the website» Also Online: Regional Savings Reports Tables with Data Sources Individual Funder Savings Reports Standards Models and Evaluations Methodology Documentations neea.org/portal 32

33 Key Assumptions Report Overview 33

34 Updates Outline 1. NEEA Baseline Updates 2. Changes to Market Assumptions 3. Savings Rate Updates 34

35 NEEA Baseline Updates Retail Products Portfolio (Clothes Washers, Refrigerators and Freezers) Evaluator: Apex Analytics, LLC» Some adjustments to the growth in baseline market share using historical trends. Publish Date: June 2019 Implications: Minimal impact on near-term Net Market Effects (program is pre-market Development) Standards Evaluator: TRC» Roof Top Units NEEA will report 4% of the savings as Net Market Effects and 19% for the standard that goes into effect in 2022.» Walk-in Coolers and Freezers NEEA will report 12% of the savings as Net Market Effects for the 2014 final rule and 20% for the 2017 final rule Publish Date: RTU: December 2018; WiCF: January 2019 Implications: 0.39 amw Net Market Effects for 2018 ENERGY STAR Version 6 Commercial Desktops Evaluator: Apex Analytics, LLC» NEEA assumes 62.8% of the 2018 savings from ENERGY STAR V. 6 is baseline Publish Date: April 2019 Implications: 1.62 amw Net Market Effects for

36 Market Updates Residential Computers and Commercial Laptops (7 th Power Plan Only) Commercial Laptops» Follow same approach for Commercial Desktops program Residential Computers» Scaled based on Census data!" #$%&'($)*& +,-(.'&/-$0 $1 230-$ #$%&'($)*& +,-(.'&/-$0 $1 230-$0 = 4.86% 36

37 Market Updates Cont. Consumer Products (Refrigerators, Clothes Washers and Dryers) AHAM discontinued its state-level shipment reports. Interim solution:» Use 2017 AHAM data to estimate 2018 sales Going forward:» Research alternatives and vet them with the RTF Market Analysis Subcommittee!"#$%&' =!"#$%&')"*+ -"./+*!h".+ 12*"3!"3+' Program Data Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) 37

38 Savings Rate/Technical Assumptions Updates Retail Products Portfolio New historical data Updated technical assumptions to match RTF Idaho and Montana Residential Code Updated the Compliance Rate to be based on energy using PNNL study.» Montana increased from 61% to 95%» Idaho increased from 90% to 97% Ductless Heat Pumps Updated technical assumptions to match lowered RTF for SF and MH efaf displacement measures 38

39 39 Natural Gas Cost Effectiveness

40 Agenda Overview of the Natural Gas Cost Effectiveness Work Group process Overview of the Operational Policy Discussion on impact to CEAC: Which topics would overlap gas and electric? How might we organize our meeting time? What else does NEEA need to consider? 40

41 Background and Context This methodology: Is specific to NEEA Gas market transformation Will look different than others methodologies Is a must-have Was established collaboratively 41

42 42 Thank you!!!

43 Work Group Participants Rebecca Blanton Puget Sound Energy Matt Doyle NW Natural Tamy Linver NW Natural Rick Hodges NW Natural Andy Eiden Energy Trust of Oregon Ryan Finesilver Avista Amanda Sargent Cascade Natural Gas Jennifer Light NW Power & Conservation Council Tina Jayaweera NW Power & Conservation Council Jennifer Snyder Washington UTC Kevin Keyt Idaho PUC Cassandra Koerner Idaho PUC Anna Kim Oregon PUC JP Batmale Oregon PUC 43

44 Work Group Process Meeting #1 July 12 Go over background Establish shared objectives Meeting #2 August 6 Review of NEEA s electric methodology, considerations for gas Meeting #3 September 5 Feedback on strawman policy First draft sent for written comment Meeting #4 November 9 Address work group feedback on draft Updated draft sent for final comment December 5 Present overview to NGAC and discuss Today Present overview to CEAC Discuss impact and considerations 44

45 Operational Policy Guidelines, not all the detail Will need help to implement Potentially aspirational 45

46 Operational Policy Contents Core Principles Perspective Calculation Components (Benefits and Costs) Analysis period and discount rate Managing NEEA s portfolio Review and Advice 46

47 Review and Advice Ongoing management through Cost Effectiveness and Evaluation Advisory Committee (CEAC) Membership and organization of CEAC should be altered to accommodate dual fuel responsibility 47

48 Discussion Questions Which CEAC topics would overlap gas and electric? Are there dual- or other-fuel topics would be valuable for single-fuel CEAC members? 48

49 Electric Gas How big is this today? Foundational content about NEEA How big might it be in future? Dual fuel programs 49

50 Discussion Questions How might we organize our meeting time to be most effective? Do we foresee a difference between shortand long-term needs? 50

51 Near-term Natural Gas Needs Data from funders to generate regional inputs Review of any weighting for regional inputs Handling cost effectiveness for dual fuel programs 51

52 Discussion Questions What else does NEEA need to consider as we explore this? 52

53 Market Research and Evaluation (MRE) Plans for

54 Commercial Initiative Luminaire Level Lighting Control Window Attachments High Performance HVAC (DOAS) Extended Motor Products (XMP) Reduced Wattage Lamp Replacement Commercial Building Stock Assessment Anticipated 2019 Research & Evaluation Market assessment On-line market research Market characterization Baseline research & market characterization Transition market progress evaluation Field work and database preperation 54

55 Residential Initiative Heat Pump Water Heaters Ductless Heat Pumps Retail Product Portfolio Next Step Homes Manufactured Homes Super-Efficient Dryers Residential Lighting (Tracking) Water-heating and HVAC (Natural Gas) Anticipated 2019 Research & Evaluation Market progress evaluation Transition market progress evaluation Product level baselines and strategy Evaluability & savings validation Market assessment & strategy Laundry-focused consumer research Market tracking study Supply chain research 55

56 Codes & Standards Project Oregon Commercial Code Washington Commercial Code Code Enhancement Audience Washington Residential Code Anticipated 2019 Research & Evaluation Finalize code evaluation Launch code evaluation Market research Code evaluation Standards Beverage vending machines Ceiling fans 56

57 57 Extra Slides

58 62 Wrap-Up

59 Meeting Wrap Up Public Comment? Next Meeting: Tuesday, April 24, 2018 Feedback on the meeting: Overall? Agenda? Packet materials? What went well? What could be improved upon? Lunch 63

60 Thank you!