12/04/ Operations Plan Electric & Natural Gas

Transcription

1 12/04/ Operations Plan Electric & Natural Gas

2 2019 Operations Plan: Executive Overview 2

3 2019 Operations Plan Executive Overview 1. Meet Cycle 5 goals: a. Pipeline metrics on target b. Measurable change made in all target markets c. Co-created electric savings on target for all investments; shortfall narrowing for current investments 2. Prepare for smooth transition to Cycle 6: a. Moving to product grouping approach b. Winding down and making some programs optional 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING Financials: Electric Budget = $34.6 M Natural Gas Budget = $5.0 M 3

4 2019 Operations Plan Executive Overview (cont.) 3. Deliver first dual-fuel funded program and first natural gas savings 4. Ensure employee and stakeholder engagement 5. Secure funding agreements in preparation for Cycle 6 6. Finalize space planning and lease negotiation 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING Financials: Total Organization Budget* = $43.0 M *Electric, Natural Gas, End Use Load Research and Special Funds 4

5 2019 ORGANIZATION BUDGET DETAIL BY FUNDING SOURCE (2018 FORECAST VS BUDGET) Fully loaded costs 2018 Forecast 2019 Budget Electric $32.5 Electric $34.64 $38.5 M $43.04 M Special Funds $0.5 EULR $1.1 Natural Gas, $3.6 Special Projects $0.2 End Use Load Research $3.2 Natural Gas, $5.0 5

6 6 Electric Portfolio

7 Current Electric Portfolio Concept Development Program Development Market Development Air Saver Module Next Step Homes Retail Product Portfolio Reduced Wattage Lamp Replacement Codes & Standards Top-Tier Trade Ally Commercial Real Estate Thermostats Manufactured Homes Super-Efficient Dryers Heat Pump Water Heaters Commercial Code Enhancement. Industrial Technical Training Commercial Lighting Regional Resources Window Attachments Luminaire Level Lighting Controls Ductless Heat Pumps C/I Strategic Energy Management Extended Motor Products High Performance HVAC 7

8 Annual Energy Savings Co-Created Savings All Investments (amw) (f) 2019(f) Current Investments Previous Investments 8

9 Electric Estimate to Business Plan % 115% % 120% Goals Goal 85-95% 130% % 110% Current All 5 Year ( ) 10 Year ( ) Total Regional Savings Current All Current All Current All 5 Year ( ) 10 Year ( ) Co-Created Savings 9

10 10 Commercial/ Industrial

11 Commercial/ Industrial Portfolio Concept Development Program Development Market Development Window Attachments Luminaire Level Lighting Controls Reduced Wattage Lamp Replacement Top-Tier Trade Ally Commercial Real Estate Extended Motor Products High Performance HVAC Industrial Technical Training Commercial Lighting Regional Resources C/I Strategic Energy Management 11

12 2019 Focus Areas 1. Increase adoption of Luminaire Level Lighting Controls 2. Transition Reduced Wattage Lamp Replacement program to long-term monitoring 3. Expand leverage of the Distributor Platform for commercial lighting and Extended Motor Products 4. Engage innovators within supply chain to increase VHE DOAS installations in the region 5. Position infrastructure programs for maximum leverage in Cycle OPERATIONS PLANNING 12

13 Key Activities 1. Engage sales channels to promote LLLC in the market 2. Use Distributor Platform to: a. Continue access to regional lighting data b. Support midstream pilots with Seattle City Light and SnoPUD to inform future program strategies for commodity LED products 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 13

14 Key Activities, cont. 3. Establish participation agreements with Northwest pump distributors 4. Complete pumps research to validate energy savings estimates 5. Encourage additional qualifying heat recovery ventilation product lines 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 14

15 15 Residential/ Mass Market

16 Current Residential Portfolio Concept Development Program Development Market Development Next Step Homes Retail Product Portfolio Heat Pump Water Heaters Manufactured Homes Super-Efficient Dryers Ductless Heat Pumps 16

17 2019 Focus Areas 1. Increase local and national awareness and support for HPWH technologies 2. Finalize incremental regional value for a paired laundry approach 3. Continue building national support for RPP 4. Work with funders and supply chain partners to identify process and timing to transition ductless heat pump program to the market 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 17

18 Key Activities 1. Execute consumer awareness tactics, driving demand for HPWHs 2. Build broad support for super efficient dryers 3. Continue product-level ENERGY STAR engagement 4. Complete ductless heat pump Market Progress Evaluation Report # OPERATIONS PLANNING 18

19 19 Marketing

20 Downstream Marketing Activities: RPAC+ consensus definition: Region-wide marketing activities to promote energy-efficient products/services/practices in the NEEA portfolio directly to end-use customers, including digital ads, purchased social, billboards and print, broadcast (radio/tv), point of purchase and direct mail where NEEA may use a marketfacing brand. 20

21 Marketing Calendar - Residential

22 Marketing Calendar - Commercial/Industrial

23 Marketing Calendar - Commercial/Industrial (cont.)

24 24 Codes and Standards

25 Codes and Standards Commercial Code Enhancement. Codes & Standards Next Step Homes Manufactured Homes 25

26 2019 Focus Areas Building Codes 1. Integrate Commercial Code Enhancement program into codes IECC 3. State code adoption 4. Training, education and technical support Equipment Standards 1. New test rating method 2. Partnership 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 26

27 2019 Key Activities 1. Develop code proposals for 2021 IECC, WA residential code and ID commercial code 2. Support new test methods on: a. Air-to-water split system heat pump water heater; b. residential heat pump and central air conditioners; c. commercial unitary air conditioners; d. fans and air compressors 3. Support Federal standards and test procedures & rulemakings 4. Collaborate to develop roadmaps and long-term goals for advancing codes and standards 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 27

28 28 Emerging Technology

29 2019 Focus Areas: 1. Prepare for Cycle 6 a. Expand on Product Groupings b. Begin Integrating Gas / Electric Scanning Efforts 2. Work with Regional Emerging Technology Advisory Committee to advance a regional pipeline of activities 3. Continue scanning efforts 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 29

30 Key Activities: Priority scanning areas: Motors Primary Windows Window Attachments Heat Pumps Thermostats and HVAC Controls 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 30

31 31 Regional Studies

32 Commercial Building Stock Assessment Overview: The CBSA is a regional baseline stock study that informs efficiency planning and market models, and provides inputs for load forecasts Key Activities: 1. Site recruiting - Underway and will continue in 2019; NEEA s project manager is engaging with funders to seek support and to coordinate efforts. 2. Data collection and analysis: a. Preliminary database will be available Q b. Summary report, final database and supporting analyses will be available Q OPERATIONS PLANNING 32

33 Task Prepare Virtual Catalog Develop Data Collection Tool Customer Contact Protocols Customer Contact Workgroup Study Integrity Workgroup Final Sample Design Train Assessors Notify Utilities of Pre-Test Collect Pre-Test Data Notify Utilities of Full Sample Recruit Sample Sites Conduct On-Site Assessments Analyze Data Finalize CBSA Database CBSA Project Timeline Year Quarter

34 34 Electric Budget

35 Financial Overview 1. Last year of Cycle 5; continuing to manage to core budgets 2. Optional programs all under budget 3. Cycle 6 business planning outcomes could require budget revisit decision on physical space and budget implications 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 35

36 ELECTRIC CYCLE 5 PROJECTION TO BUSINESS PLAN ($ THOUSANDS) Cycle 5 Business Plan budget= $168,250 Cycle 5 Projected = $165,684 Variance = $ (2,566) $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 $70,665 $64,513 Salary/ G&A $101,171 $97,585 Programs/ Projects 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING CYCLE 5 PROJECTED EXPENSES Salary/ G&A, $64,513 39% $165.7 M 61% Program/ Projects, $101,171 Cycle 5 BP Total Cycle 5 Projected Fully loaded costs 36

37 ELECTRIC CYCLE 5 OPTIONAL AND CORE PROGRAMS PROJECTION FULLY LOADED ($ THOUSANDS) Optional Programs Core Programs $15,000 $12,887 $1,166 $10,319 $150,000 $155,363 $155,363 $10,000 $5,206 $1,031 $100,000 $4,329 $5,000 $6,515 $4,959 $50,000 $0 Cycle 5 BP Total Cycle 5 Projected Commercial Real Estate Top Tier Trade Ally Ind Tech Training $0 Cycle 5 BP Total Cycle 5 Projected 37

38 2019 ELECTRIC BUDGET DETAIL BY ACTIVITY ($THOUSANDS) Total net change from 2018 to 2019 is an increase of $2.1 million. $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ (F) 2019 (B) 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING DRAFT 2019 BUDGET BY ACTIVITY Admin Expenses, $3,911 11% $34.6 M 89% Program Expenses, $30, *Other: evaluation, technology, marketing, program administration Fully loaded costs

39 2019 ELECTRIC BUDGET DETAIL BY DIVISION ($ THOUSANDS) DRAFT 2019 BUDGET BY DIVISION $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Exec & Bus Admin 2018 (F) 2019 (B) Market Strategy & Execution Planning, Eval & Tech Stakeholder Relations & Comms 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING Stkhldr Eng & Comms, $2,138, 6% PET, $8,735, 25% $34.6 M Exec & Bus Admin, $3,914, 11% Mkt Stgy & Execution, $19,845, 58% Fully loaded costs 39

40 ELECTRIC BUDGET DETAIL BY EXPENSE CATEGORY ($THOUSANDS) Salaries & benefits are budgeted for a year over year increase of 3.2%, healthcare 5% $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ (F) 2019 (B) Salaries & Benefits Programs/ Projects Other *Other: professional services, equipment, software, facilities, travel, meetings, prof. dev., depreciation, administrative charge for shared services 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING DRAFT 2019 BUDGET BY EXPENSE CATEGORY Other $2,605 32% 7% Salaries & Benefits $11,219 $34.6 M Fully loaded costs 61% Programs/ Projects $20,069

41 2018 (F) 2019 (B) Variance BetterBricks $ 38 $ 106 $ 68 Codes and Standards $ 2,683 $ 2,956 $ 273 Commercial Code Enhancement $ 442 $ 514 $ 72 Commercial Real Estate $ 331 $ 440 $ 109 Conduit $ 76 $ 112 $ 36 Ductless Heat Pumps $ 1,198 $ 1,012 $ (186) Extended Motor Products $ 349 $ 750 $ 401 Heat Pump Water Heaters $ 3,820 $ 2,675 $(1,145) High-Performance HVAC $ 346 $ 635 $ 289 Industrial Technical Training $162 $ 150 $ (12) Integrated Design Labs $ 497 $ 567 $ 70 Lighting Midstream Pilot $ 245 $ 503 $ 258 Lighting Resources $ 88 $ 103 $ 15 Long-term Monitoring & Tracking $ 365 $ 471 $ 106 Luminaire Level Lighting Controls $ 530 $ 896 $ 366 Manufactured Homes $ 402 $ 530 $ 128 Market Data $ 65 $ 125 $ 60 Market Research $ 342 $ 350 $ 8 Market Strategy $ 106 $ 164 $ 58 New Initiative Budget $ 0 $ 203 $203 Next Step Homes $ 1,155 $ 916 $ (239) Reduced Wattage Lamp Replacement $ 1,480 $ 175 $ (1,305) Retail Product Portfolio $ 2,288 $ 2,404 $ 116 Scanning $ 389 $ 406 $ 17 Stock Assessments $ 948 $ 1,985 $ 1,037 Strategic Energy Management $ 118 $ 137 $ 19 Super-Efficient Dryers $ 387 $ 660 $ 273 Top Tier Trade Ally $ 479 $ 416 $ (63) Window Attachments $ 127 $ 450 $ 323 Total $ 19,453 $ 20,809 $ 1, OPERATIONS PLANNING Electric Expenses by Program Direct ($ Thousands)

42 Cycle 5 Reconciliation: New Initiative Electric Funding ($ Thousands) Actual Expenses ($M) 2018 Projected Forecast 2019 ($M) ($M) Total Cycle 5 Expenses ($M) Scanning $2,000 $2,000 Commercial Code Enhancement $973 $799 $910 $2,682 Commercial HVAC $318 $825 $1,174 $2,317 Distributor Platform $0 $73 $77 $150 Dryers $2,652 $658 $975 $4,285 Extended Motor Products $77 $560 $999 $1,636 Lighting Mid-Stream Pilots $0 $282 $555 $837 Manufactured Homes $657 $509 $655 $1,820 Window Attachments $982 $539 $905 $2,427 Unallocated Placeholder Funds $233 $233 Total Projected New Initiative Spend Cycle 5 Projected Expenses: % of 5-Year Budget 5-Year Budget (BP) ($M) $7,659 $4,245 $6,484 $18,388 99% $18,500 42

43 43 Natural Gas Portfolio

44 Current Natural Gas Portfolio Concept Development Program Development Market Development Efficient Gas Water Heaters Next Step Homes Combi Systems Condensing Rooftop Units Gas Hearths Gas Dryers 44

45 2019 Focus Areas 1. Accelerate activities for Efficient Gas Water Heating and Condensing Rooftop Units 2. Integrate first dual-fuel funded program: Next Step Homes 3. Deliver first reported natural gas savings 4. Bridge to 2020 by winding down activities for Dryers and Hearths and casting a wide net for Combination Units 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 45

46 Natural Gas Key Activities 1. Complete multi-unit field test of condensing rooftop units and develop market guidance 2. Influence manufacturers to start development of off-the-shelf condensing rooftop unit 3. Leverage extra-regional partnerships to drive commercialization of gas heat pump water heater 4. Integrate gas heat pump water heaters into the Advanced Water Heater Specification 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 46

47 Natural Gas Key Activities (cont.) 5. Explore opportunities for gas utility programs in the Performance Path 6. Enhance Better Built NW platform to include gas specific information 7. Develop product spec sheet for combi systems and conduct product and market assessment 8. Support the development of new combined washer/dryer rating and labeling system 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 47

48 48 Natural Gas Budget

49 NATURAL GAS CYCLE 5 PROJECTION TO BUSINESS PLAN ($ THOUSANDS) Cycle 5 Business Plan budget= $18,335 Cycle 5 Projected = $14,460 Variance = $ (3,875) $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $7,422 $6,441 Salary/ G&A $10,913 $8,091 Programs/ Projects 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING CYCLE 5 PROJECTED EXPENSES Salary/ G&A, $6,441 45% $14.5 M Projects, $8,019 55% 49 Cycle 5 BP Total Cycle 5 Projected *Fully loaded costs

50 2019 NATURAL GAS BUDGET DETAIL BY ACTIVITY ($ THOUSANDS) Total net change from 2018 to 2019 is an increase of $1.4 million. $3, (F) $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ (B) 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING DRAFT 2019 BUDGET BY ACTIVITY Admin Expenses, $847 17% $5.0 M 83% Program Expenses, $4, *Fully loaded costs

51 2019 NATURAL GAS BUDGET DETAIL BY EXPENSE CATEGORY ($ THOUSANDS) DRAFT 2019 BUDGET BY EXPENSE CATEGORY 51 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ (F) 2019 (B) Salaries & Benefits Programs/ Projects Other *Other: travel, meetings, prof. dev., other general & admin, administrative charge for shared services 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING Other $898 20% 18% Salaries & Benefits $1,011 $5.0 M *Fully loaded costs 62% Programs/ Projects $3,089

52 2019 NATURAL GAS BUDGET DETAIL DIRECT EXPENSES ($ THOUSANDS) Efficient Gas Water Heating FY 2018 Forecast FY 2019 Plan Variance $280 $920 $640 Condensing RTUs $758 $700 $(58) Combination Units $382 $558 $176 Next Step Homes $0 $400 $400 Gas Dryers $24 $50 $26 Hearths $0 $0 $0 Other project directs: Scanning, codes & standards, market research $465 $461 $(4) Total $1,909 $3,089 $1, OPERATIONS PLANNING

53 Risks, Mitigations, Opportunities 53

54 Transition to Cycle 6: Key 2019 Activities 1. Moving to product grouping approach 2. Winding down programs: RWLR, and CRE (electric), Hearths and Gas Dryers (natural gas) 3. Assessing continuation of special projects: C&I SEM, ITT 4. Ensuring tracking, reporting, budgeting and IT systems are in place to support Cycle 6 goals 5. Completing funding cycle agreements 54

55 Alliance Risks 1. Differing alliance priorities introducing adoption challenges and risking MT failure 2. Long-term savings forecast if heat pump water heater sales remain flat 3. Lack of progress and activity from federal partners 4. Regional bandwidth to effectively manage large, complex portfolio 5. Low natural gas prices create cost-effectiveness challenges 6. Lack of investment in energyefficient natural gas technologies means a heavier lift to get the manufacturers engaged 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 55

56 Opportunities/ Risk Mitigations 1. Identifying opportunities for flexibility in implementation 2. Partnering extra-regionally to increase Northwest influence 3. Finding efficiencies in program management and regional convening 4. Increasing coordination between natural gas and electric programs 5. Leveraging platform data to inform regional program strategies and address challenges 2019 OPERATIONS PLANNING 56

57 Questions?