Year 2 Week one Portfolio Statistics

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Silvia Banks
6 years ago
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1 Year 2 Week one Portfolio Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. First stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Total Portfolio performance since inception 15.99% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 26.31%

2 Current Portfolio Valuation. Portfolio Valuation 2017/June/17 is $291,622 According to Lincoln the portfolio is increasing at a rate of 15.99% per annum. Since inception, securities have returned 26.31% per annum vs XJOAI at 13.23%) and also compares to star stocks which returned (-4.12%) (all as measured by Lincoln).

3 Comment. We currently have 8 securities and about $63k in cash (or settlements receivable) Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% - Losers 0%-5% 1 Gainers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 5.1%-10% 3 Gainers10.1% - 20% 1 Gainers 20%-30% - Gainers 30%-40% - Gainers >60% 1 Portfolio comment. 5 out of 8 stocks closed green for the week. All stocks are still in hold territory.although IEU looks quite close to crossing down We Gained about 0.39% for the week vs XJOAI gain of 1.7% Our best performer remains currently ALL which so far has produced over 67% approx return since we bought in on 12 July 2016 one of the first stocks bought by this portfolio. We also made a fairly hefty gain on sold stocks CCP and FMG. We hunt for stocks like this and hope to find more.

(Saturday) Short term moving average well above

FUTURES Green Saturday Short Term Moving average

Short term moving average still above longer term

RED Short term moving average gaps above longer

4 Status of US Markets. Dow. Closed Green for the week Futures Green (Saturday) Short term moving average well above long term moving average S&P 500 was Green FUTURES Green Saturday Short Term Moving average above long term. Nasdaq. RED for Week Futures RED. Short term moving average still above longer term moving average Russell 2000 RED for week, Futures RED Short term moving average gaps above longer term moving average Vix closed RED for the week a Green signal for us close to recent lows

Status of Australian Markets XAO All Ordinaries Index. GREEN and above the line.

in the MMA. ROAR trending just a little below 20% Continued Midcaps surge since about Jan -17.

(a GREEN signal for us) XVI is trending about zero In summary I d say there are mixed signals,

High PE NASDAQ to me is a bit of a worry and I sold out of NDQ as it crossed the sell signal line

5 Status of Australian Markets XAO All Ordinaries Index. GREEN and above the line. No Gap in MMA, ROAR dropping down towards Zero XMD Midcap 50 GREEN and above the line Positive Gap in the MMA. ROAR trending just a little below 20% Continued Midcaps surge since about Jan -17. XSO Small Ords Green Below the buy line MMA not open ROAR approx Zero XVI Volatility Index was RED (a GREEN signal for us) XVI is trending about zero In summary I d say there are mixed signals, both NASDAQ and RUSSELL2000 in the RED but other US markets green and Australian markets green. High PE NASDAQ to me is a bit of a worry and I sold out of NDQ as it crossed the sell signal line here. Peter might say I ve sold a bit early however I m perhaps too cautious right now because of the very high PE in that market

6 ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at it s component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I ll mention it) XHJ. ASX 200 Health Care (Green) XNJ ASX 200 Industrials (Green) XUJ ASX 200 Utilities (GREEN) Comment...our list is shrinking. I believe that a narrowing base of advancing sectors is not a great indicator for future investing.

7 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count 0 4/02/2017 4/03/2017 4/04/2017 4/05/2017 4/06/2017 4/07/2017 We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market?

8 Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks. Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out. Star Stocks AMA, BAP, BBN, NAN, NCK, NHF, PMV, RFG, TPM Borderline Stocks CKF, DMP, Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above or close to 20% per annum (based on ROAR) AND are above the line. In other words worth assessment for possible rating as a buy. Star Stocks ALL**, APX, COH, CTD**, FPH, NST, PEA, PME, RRL, SSM, Borderline Stocks CGC**, CSL, GTK, WEB 11 Red 14 Greens perhaps the tide has turned In the chart below you can see a comparison between Star Growth stocks and the ASX200 ETF IOZ over a 1 month period it seems that star stocks are pulling ahead (slightly but it looks like the start of a rather decent gap) perhaps it s time to look at star stocks again maybe Charts worth thinking about. AMA hit its sell signal this week It s trended sideways for a looooong time BBN looks like it has crossed upwards can this continue or is it just part of a continued downward trend? RCG looks like it s crossed upwards and quite strongly (up from recent low of 60c to current 82.5c (up over 37%) I d like to see this consolidate before buying for the newsletter portfolio)

9 Selling Report. This week we sold NDQ. As you can see from this chart the top sell signal was hit but the bottom Chandelier stop loss wasn t hit. I decided to pull the trigger ahead of time as I could see futures trading in the USA not looking good and I was nervous about the massive PEs represented in the NASDAQ. (did I make a mistake possibly that s always a possibility). Sold 2, fees Total loss $ Buying Report. Nothing to report

10 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week The following stocks are on our potential buy list which has been updated for this week Ticker A2M** ALL** ALU ARF BRG CGC** CHC** CSL CTD** DLX FPH GUD IHOO** IVC IXJ PPT QUAL REA SDF** Closed RED for week X SVW** X TWE** I was a bit hesitant to put QUAL and SVW on this list both had decent downs last week. So I m going to see how they go this next week if RED they ll be off this list.

Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

growing EPSG over 145% forecast for Jun 2017 No Div history 1 year return above 100% Historic PE 45, prospective PE 36 This is one of those high

BRG Breville Group Strong Stock ROA above 17 Grossed up div 5.

11 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps me and I might include it (no promises) Chart Comment A2M** A2 Milk Strong stock ROA above 40% and growing EPSG over 145% forecast for Jun 2017 No Div history 1 year return above 100% Historic PE 45, prospective PE 36 This is one of those high priced stocks that s been rapidly growing. It came out with an upgraded earnings announcement this week. Could this be the next BAL or BLK? BRG Breville Group Strong Stock ROA above 17 Grossed up div 5.2% and days to next div 90 5 year return 25%, 3 year 16%, 1 year 52% Worth a look GUD Strong Stock ROA and forecast to grow EPSG forecast at over 15% Gross Div 4.66% days to next div 62 5 year return 18.5%, 3 year 38%, 1 year 65% Nice set of numbers.worth considering

Parting comment Still the biggest interest for the week. NASDAQ didn t rally last week after the prior week s ominous fall. This above is a daily chart over the past year and a bit.

12 Parting comment Still the biggest interest for the week. NASDAQ didn t rally last week after the prior week s ominous fall. This above is a daily chart over the past year and a bit. There s been such a rapid increase over recent years. Below look at this chart which shows the Nasdaq 100 back to before You can see the massive 80%+ decline after the dot com bust and then the massively rapid increase from about Some of the Nasdaq stocks have truly large PE values (some of which I listed last week). In 2015 and 2016 the NASDAQ got some wobbles and then took off again at an even faster rate. It s at least worth watching closely, like any very high PE stock, confidence can evaporate and share prices can deflate rapidly alongside. Comparison of portfolio returns Newsletter portfolio. Since inception 10/6/ %pa Buffett s Widow passive portfolio. Since inception 1/7/ %pa Star Stocks Portfolio: Since inception 17/11/ (2.09%)pa (slightly less horrible)

13 Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Year 2 Week Four Portfolio Vital Statistics

Year 2 Week Four Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. First stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Total Portfolio performance since inception 14.12% pa Performance on funds