Portfolio Vital Statistics

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Charity Bennett
6 years ago
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1 Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile and then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $325,339 Total Portfolio performance since inception 18.99% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 27.11% Cash in portfolio $1,205

2 Current Portfolio Valuation.

3 Since Inception performance table Performance since inception (PA) incl divs Newsletter Portfolio 18.99% (including cash) Stocks in portfolio 27.11% AOAI 15.22% Star Growth Stocks 8.37% Star income stocks 16.66% Comment. We currently have 13 securities and about $1k in cash 99% invested. Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% 1 Losers 0%-5% 1 Gainers 0%-5% 4 Gainers 5.1%-10% - Gainers10.1% - 20% 3 Gainers 20%-30% 3 Gainers 30%-40% - Gainers >80% 1 Portfolio comment. 7/13 stocks closed green for the week. All stocks are in hold territory

4 Status of US and Aus Markets. Green RED USA DJA 1 USA S&P500 1 USA Nasdaq 1 USA Russell USA VI (inverted (means 1 Green is shown as RED) USA DJA Futures 1 USA S&P 500 Futures 1 USA NASDAQ Futures 1 USA Russell 2000 Futures 1 Aus AOAI 1 AUS MD 1 AUS SOAI 1 AUS VI (Vix) (inverted) 1 Overall market signals looks MIED to me Unless I had a burning need I d probably sit on the AS Indices with ROAR above 20% New section for this report. Here are the AS indices which closed the week with ROAR (6 months rather than annual) above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I ll mention it) Indices growing > 20% ROAR (6 mths) Green between 10-20% Orange AOAI. All ords Total return DJ Consumer Discretionary EC Emerging Companies EJ AS 200 Energy FJ AS 200 Financials GDAS 300 Gold HJ AS 200 Health Care IJ AS 200 Info Tech JRAI AS 200 Resources TR MD Midcap 50 MJ AS 200 Materials MM AS 300 Metals and Mining NJ AS 200 Industrials PJ Property Trusts SJ Consumer Staples SOAI Small Ords TR TJ Telecommunications UJ AS 200 Utilities Comment 5 greens and 11 oranges. It s been a good time to be in the market this past few months. Where is your portfolio compared to this table? For example If you ve held telecoms you ve suffered most likely

5 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? Comment. Graph is pretty much flat doesn t it.

6 Selling Report. Buying Report. Results on these stocks so far NCK up 1.22% APO up 4.72% ETHI up 0.54% and NHC down 2.29% Peter was surprised that chose APO and NCK for this portfolio. Here s my thinking. APO has a ROA of 16%+, a PE of 15x with forecast EPS growth of about 9% this year. It was in the buy range on our charts (indicating market support) and it pays a good dividend. I wouldn t buy a stock like this without the market support. It s a similar story with NCK. This is an unfashionable stock with 42% ROA, a good solid dividend, downbeat PE prospective of 13x and it s above the buy line on our charts. I can imagine both stocks going up with the slightest bit of good news. Of course if market support is lost then I m out hopefully at most losing a small amount.

7 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week We re fully invested at the moment so we won t be buying unless one of our stocks is sold. The strategies are described below. Stocks shown meet all criteria. There are loads of things to check out on these lists.it s nice to see so many to work on. Basic Strategy securities ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy Lincoln Stocks Strategy Markblatt Strategy ARB GEAR ABC ABC APO ETHI ANN CHC CSR* CHC IAA* BLD DL CT* GDI IEM CCP* EC CWP* IGO IJH CGF GTK EVN* MIN* IJP CHC IRI* NGI* MND IJR CIM* MNF IMF* NHC* IOO* DL MPL MIN* NWH IRU EC MQG MNY ISO GEM RWC NHC* IVE IPH SUN NST IVV IPL PLG IZZ LNK RCG or A1 NDQ MQG RIO* QUAL NHF RRL* NVT VLW* SDA GWA SGR NCK* SUN SR VOC As you can see from the stocks marked with * I personally buy and hold many of the stocks on these lists. I used exactly the same strategy as shown in this newsletter for my personal holdings.

8 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria. (a) Acceptable Fundamentals (b) Acceptable daily trade volume (c) Acceptable market support at current prices. Personally I think the above list is a great place from which to choose stocks to consider for investment. I d be happy to just choose the best stocks from the above list and not look any further. Basic Strategy. Step 1. Filter stocks with this filter Then find all stocks growing at 6 month ROAR >20% Strategy 2. ETFS. Choose all ETFs that have a decent amount of daily trade. Identify all that are growing over past 6 months at a clip of over 20%pa Strategy 3. Large caps. Run this filter

9 Then find all stocks growing at over 20% per annum

annum Finally the Markblatt strategy. Run this filter Now choose as follows.

10 Strategy 4. Lincoln Strategy Run this filter Again choose all that are growing at over 20% per annum Finally the Markblatt strategy. Run this filter Now choose as follows. Rank on lowest next year PE plus highest next year ROA. From within the top 30 choose all those that are above the HAVR buy line meaning they have market share price support

Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

yield is > 9% gross PE prospective is about 13 This was once a star stock which lost market support and then traded sideways for the past half year.

ETHI* Another interesting ETF. This one is about investing in sustainability type stocks.

11 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps me and I might include it (no promises) Chart Comment A1 (was RCG footwear) 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 24%, 18% and minus 25% (approx) Div yield is > 9% gross PE prospective is about 13 This was once a star stock which lost market support and then traded sideways for the past half year. It s now started to go for a bit of a run up. Can it be sustained? The slightest bit of good news could see this stock rise sharply perhaps worth keeping an eye on this. ETHI* Another interesting ETF. This one is about investing in sustainability type stocks. There are only about $200k traded daily however if this fits your trading level perhaps worth a look IMF* 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 14%, 9% and 59% (approx). Div yield is > 6% gross prospective PE prospective is about 10 ROE is about 24% EPSG is forecast to be SIGNIFICANT over the next couple of years. If the market becomes a believer in this stock it could appreciate a lot Note average daily trade is only 400k

Parting comment Each of these charts show some interesting moves in the past week.

The highs are successively higher and the lows are successively higher.

The Australian Dollar seems to have been at about 0.76 for over a year and a half now.

12 Parting comment Each of these charts show some interesting moves in the past week. USA VI Daily chart. The fear index has shot up again. Again notice the pattern. The highs are successively higher and the lows are successively higher. The last candle on this chart is very long Wonder what that means? More nerves? The Australian Dollar seems to have been at about 0.76 for over a year and a half now. With all the negative news about Brexit the brittish pound still has managed to rise strongly over the past year. Go figure.

13 What does it all mean? Watch the market. Be on top of the market when it s moving up. Be flexible. Stay in whilst it grows. Jump out when it moves. I don t believe that that I can understand the fundamentals better than the market it s too complex. Instead my mantra is find stocks that have acceptable fundamentals and buy them when they re likely to go up. My motto might be The act of buying is an experiment. I m trying to find stocks that will go up, but if I fail close the experiment off. If the experiment pays off let it ride. Enjoy the game knowing that I only need to win a few percent more than half the time and that I know before I pony up my ante that I will absolutely definitely without a doubt lose some of the time and it will hurt. Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Portfolio Vital Statistics

Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $326,811 Total Portfolio performance since inception