Portfolio Vital Statistics

Transcription

1 Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $363,901 Total Portfolio performance since inception 23.06% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 31.24% Cash in portfolio $100 (approx) we re currently fully invested

2 Current Portfolio Valuation.

3 Since Inception performance table Performance since inception (PA) incl divs Newsletter Portfolio 23.06% (including cash) Stocks in portfolio 31.24% XJOAI 12.96% Star Growth Stocks 10.85% Star income stocks 12.54% Comment. We currently have 17 securities and about $100 in cash about 100% invested. Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% 3 Losers 0%-5% 3 Gainers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 5.1%-10% 3 Gainers10.1% - 20% 2 Gainers 20%-30% - Gainers 30%-50% 2 Gainers 60%-70% 1 Gainers >210% 1 Portfolio comment. 11/17 stocks closed green for the week. All stocks are in hold territory Big question. Are we too overweight in A2M and SVW?

4 Are we overweight? Two stocks A2M (21%) and SVW (14%) weigh heavily. Should I lighten up on these? I ve been reluctant to sell whilst they ve been going up. What do you think I should do please? Status of US and Aus Markets. Green RED USA DJA 1 USA S&P500 1 USA Nasdaq 1 USA Russell USA VIX (inverted (means 1 Green is shown as RED) USA DJA Futures 1 USA S&P 500 Futures 1 USA NASDAQ Futures 1 USA Russell 2000 Futures 1 Aus XAOAI 1 AUS XMD 1 AUS XSOAI 1 AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1 Mixed result.if we have cash I d sit on the sideline and wait for clearer green signals (which might come as early as Monday afternoon with ASX up and USA futures strongly green or not)

5 ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10% ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month) above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month Over or over 10 but under 20% 20% XAOAI. All ords Total return XDJ Consumer Discretionary XEC Emerging Companies XEJ ASX 200 Energy XFJ ASX 200 Financials XGD ASX 300 Gold XHJ ASX 200 Health Care 1 XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR XMD Midcap 50 XMJ ASX 200 Materials XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials XPJ Property Trusts XSJ Consumer Staples XSOAI Small Ords TR XTJ Telecommunications XUJ ASX 200 Utilities Over 10% Comment. Health has been the place to be

6 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look: BKW, CSR* Comment. Graph still flat one day it might move

7 Selling and Buying Report. Last week we warned that NHC looked close to hitting its sell signal and when it did we cleared out at 2.10 per share. As of Friday night it was sitting on So we then took the cash on hand and bought JIN which has a very decent 25% ROA and for a fast growing stock has what seems to be an ok PE of about 20x (forecast), plus it pays a forecast dividend of above 5% (gross)

8 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week This list will be updated fully after the reporting season is finished There are loads of things to check out on these lists. Basic Strategy securities ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy Lincoln Stocks Strategy Markblatt Strategy CSR* Hack ANN EVN AFG CUV NDQ CSR* NST BPT* EVN* SVW* BSL* IGO CDA IMD CSR* NGI* CTX SBM* CWP* FXL IGL ING* KMD* MNY* NCK* WAN RHL* RRL* SBM* SFR* WHC* To me it seems that even in a wobbly market there s good stuff to buy. I d also add the following. SDA, RWC, SSM and IFM

9 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria. (a) Acceptable Fundamentals (b) Acceptable daily trade volume (c) Acceptable market support at current prices. Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies

10 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps me and I might include it (no promises) Chart Comment CBA Returns inc divs 5year 3 year 1 year 7% -1% -6% For the past few years inclusive of dividends you ve lost money if you ve held onto CBA. You ve done better by keeping your money in the bank. Sadly TLS Returns inc divs(approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year -.01% -13% -24% ROE is about 34% Div yield is about 9% gross PE prospective is about 11 This stock probably can t go much lower rationally but there is little market support. AMP Returns inc divs (approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year 5% -2% 11% Div yield prospective apx 8% gross PE prospective is about 15x ROE about 14% No need to hurry into this stock

11 Parting comment S&P ASX 200 Health index. Has been growing reasonably strongly since about Jan 2017 Take a look at LHC, SHL, COH, RMD and of course CSL. Health is the only index that s got a decent gaining index at the moment. Personally think th e. International markets What do you see when you look at these charts? I see them still trending up however volatility has increased and the risk of turning down seems to have increased. What about iron ore. Mid last year is was at about $55 now about $72. Hence increases in miners!

12 What does it all mean? This is my message to myself Hold the finger over the sell button. Press it firmly only if and definitely if a sell signal is hit. Don t press before hand. (well maybe if a stock represents over 25% of a portfolio perhaps lighten up a little not sure about that one) Buy good quality stocks that have market support and let them run whilst they appreciate. Be disciplined check for sells daily check for buys weekly. If there s nothing to buy don t chase just wait. If there s something to sell don t wait sell. (note to self read this sentence a few times and pay attention I can see that I ve been guilty of breaking this rule last week!) What s your plan?. Can you describe it clearly. Can you write it down. Can you follow it with discipline. Do you know if you re following your plan or straying? If you don t have a written plan what is the very first thing you can do to make the plan more concrete, clearer and likely to be followed? Can you do that first thing today? Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.