Portfolio Vital Statistics

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Jack Short
5 years ago
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Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile, first stocks purchased 7/7/2016 Now worth $387,359 Total Portfolio performance since inception 22.

1 Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile, first stocks purchased 7/7/2016 Now worth $387,359 Total Portfolio performance since inception 22.17% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 29.12% Cash in portfolio $14,981 (96% invested) Rinse and repeat. We pretty much do the same thing week in week out and repete over and over and over. This is not an action packed blog full of new stuff it s more like real life portfolio management

2 Current Portfolio Valuation.

3 Since Inception performance table Performance since inception (PA) incl divs Newsletter Portfolio (incl cash) 22.17% Stocks in portfolio 29.12% XJOAI 14.19% Star Growth Stocks 13.54% Star income stocks 12.82% Comment. We currently have 20 securities and about $14k approx in cash 96% invested Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% 1 Losers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 0%-5% 4 Gainers 5.1%-10% 2 Gainers10.1% - 20% 4 Gainers 20%-30% 3 Gainers 30%-50% 2 Gainers 50%-80% 1 80%+ 1 Portfolio comment. Asymmetry in returns. More winners than losers. Moral of story Cut off losers quickly. Let winners run. Repeat this over and over and over and over 12/20 stocks closed green for the week All stocks are in hold territory. None have hit sell signals

4 Status of US and Aus Markets. Green RED USA DJA 1 USA S&P500 1 USA Nasdaq 1 USA Russell USA VIX (inverted (means 1 Green is shown as RED) USA DJA Futures 1 USA S&P 500 Futures 1 USA NASDAQ Futures 1 USA Russell 2000 Futures 1 Aus XAOAI 1 AUS XMD 1 AUS XSOAI 1 AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1 Mixed bag means watch carefully before making a decision in other words I d want to see green USA markets and green futures before I d open my purse.

5 ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10% ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month) above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month or over 10 but under 20% Over 20% Over 10% XAOAI. All ords Total return 1 XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1 XEC Emerging Companies XEJ ASX 200 Energy 1 XFJ ASX 200 Financials XGD ASX 300 Gold XHJ ASX 200 Health Care 1 XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech 1 XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR XMD Midcap 50 XMJ ASX 200 Materials XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials XPJ Property Trusts 1 XSJ Consumer Staples XSOAI Small Ords TR XTJ Telecommunications XUJ ASX 200 Utilities 1 Comment. Again declining greens have gains run out of puff? Check out XFJ financials have crossed strongly up and XGD has taken a swan dive (that s gold) and XNJAI (industrials ) seems to be benefiting as money moving into this index perhaps?

6 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look: AGL, BKW, HVN, NHC*, WHC* Comment. Graph still flat (sorry for gaps) prediction one day this chart will move strongly up who knows when but we ll see it here.and when it does we ll be very busy responding

7 Selling and Buying Report. I got cold feet on AMI after it had retraced more than 15% since purchase. Seems it was a bad call as it hadn t yet hit it s sell signal and then of course it went up the next day and is not sitting at 54c (I sold at 50c). I guess that s part of the game. Let s hope I get the chance to re-invest the capital soon

Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week

Value+Market Strategy Hull Income Investing Strategy You can safely assume that I

How I d use this table. I d scan the stocks on this table.

From the remaining stocks pick the best to invest in and add to the portfolio (try to

Of critical importance Sell any that hit a sell signal and then re-invest the funds

8 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week Basic Strategy securities ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy Lincoln Stocks Strategy Value+Market Strategy Hull Income Investing Strategy You can safely assume that I either own the above stocks or are thinking about adding them to my holdings. How I d use this table. I d scan the stocks on this table. Reject immediately any that I don t like for any reason. From the remaining stocks pick the best to invest in and add to the portfolio (try to have between 20 and 30 stocks in the portfolio). Of critical importance Sell any that hit a sell signal and then re-invest the funds whenever all markets seem to be pointing up. *****Note to self Do not follow this approach if all markets are pointing down for such a market open up your down market strategy and do something different.

9 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria. (a) Acceptable Fundamentals (b) Acceptable daily trade volume (c) Acceptable market support at current prices. Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies. (note I ve added here the hull income investing strategy (it s simply choosing stocks from the filter described earlier in this newsletter and looking for those that also have market support).

Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

The Millionaire factory has had a very strong run for some time now. Perhaps it s time to pile in? LOV Returns inc divs(approx.

now popping up above the buy line. Who dares to buy back in? The market seems to still like the story what about you?

10 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. Chart Comment MQG* Returns inc divs 5year 3 year 1 year 53% 20% 30% Income Star Stock ROA+1 20% EPSG+1 6% Div prospective ~5% gross PE+1 16x The Millionaire factory has had a very strong run for some time now. Perhaps it s time to pile in? LOV Returns inc divs(approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year NA% 55% 181% Strong stock Div yield ~3% gross PE forecast about 33x EPSG forecast 21% Featuring here for a 3 rd week and now popping up above the buy line. Who dares to buy back in? The market seems to still like the story what about you? APN* Returns inc divs(approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year 24% 21% 19% Satisfactory Stock EPSG prospective (-20%) (year 2 14%) Div yield prospective ~NA% PE prospective is about 16x ROA/ROE +1 ~9% and 10% Can the rally continue?

Parting comment GOLD prices are diving off a high

Look then at this next chart (which is monthly what

11 Parting comment GOLD prices are diving off a high cliff. What do you see when you look at this market? Do you see that gold is going down or is it just inside it s normal trading range. Look then at this next chart (which is monthly what do you see now?) Copper Prices Copper prices continue to fall. Ominous sign perhaps?

12 Many weeks ago this newsletter pondered about the fate of the property market (as multiple factors looked to be working against property prices and today in the Age Newspaper there s a big article about an impending property crash. Another way of looking at it. Many investment properties return say 3% or 4% gross yields, however after taking out land tax, agent fees, maintenance costs, council rates and so on they end up with perhaps 1% or 2% ROA. In other words their PE is perhaps 50x or 100x. How many times have you seen a stock with a PE of say 100x fall in price dramatically with the emergence of a small bit of bad news. I suspect that s a fairly common event. What s the implication for property sadly it might be terrible. What stocks would suffer in the event of falling property prices? probably quite a few not just those involved in property but perhaps finance (banks and non banks), retail and then it snow balls into increasing interest rates and everyone is affected. Is this the thing that will tip the market into a declining one? Who knows but I better be ready

13 What does it all mean? This is my message to myself Stick to my sell signal process. Go to 100% cash if required. Don t assume I can understand the market, or even individual stocks Fundamentals are simply too complicated to understand. Even the CEO of a large company with access to all sorts of inside data can struggle. Even the analysts of big banks with teams of people doing work with much better access than I ll ever have to data can get it wrong. Approach every holding is an experiment to be proven right or wrong by the market. Do not think that I can outsmart the market. Buy good quality stocks that have market support and let them run for as long as they appreciate. Be disciplined check for sells daily check for buys weekly. If there s nothing to buy don t chase just wait. If there s something to sell don t wait sell. (note to self read this sentence a few times and pay attention I can see that I ve been guilty of breaking this rule.don t do something because I m emotionally driven to do something.) What s your plan?. Can you describe it clearly. Can you write it down. Can you follow it with discipline. Do you know if you re following your plan or straying? If you don t have a written plan what is the very first thing you can do to make the plan more concrete, clearer and likely to be followed? Can you do that first thing today? Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Portfolio Vital Statistics

Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $386,347 Total Portfolio performance since inception