Year 2 Week Four Portfolio Vital Statistics

Transcription

1 Year 2 Week Four Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. First stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Total Portfolio performance since inception 14.12% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 23.45%

2 Current Portfolio Valuation. Portfolio Valuation 2017/July/01 is $288,355 According to Lincoln the portfolio is increasing at a rate of 14.12% per annum. Since inception, securities have returned 23.45% per annum vs JOAI at 11.96%) and also compares to star stocks which returned (-2.56%) (all as measured by Lincoln).

3 Comment. We currently have 8 securities and about $63k in cash (or settlements receivable) Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% - Losers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 0%-5% 1 Gainers 5.1%-10% 3 Gainers10.1% - 20% 1 Gainers 20%-30% - Gainers 30%-40% - Gainers >60% 1 Portfolio comment. 0/8 stocks closed green for the week. (ouch) All stocks are still in hold territory.although CHC looks quite close to crossing down (note it also went e last week on a div of 15.6 cps and a div yield of 5.45% We lost about 2.16% for the week vs JOAI gain of 0.37% (Eample BHP closed up for the week as did banks)

4 Status of US Markets. Dow. Closed RED for the week Up 0.29% Friday Futures Green (Saturday) Short term moving average well above long term moving average S&P 500 was RED for the week Up 0.15% Friday FUTURES Green Saturday Short Term Moving average above long term. Nasdaq. RED for Week Down 0.06% Friday Futures Green Saturday. Short term moving average still well above longer term moving average Russell 2000 Green for week, Down 0.06% Friday Futures RED Short term moving average gaps above longer term moving average Vi closed Green for the week a RED signal for us still near recent lows, however trending up for past 2 weeks

5 Status of Australian Markets AOAI All Ordinaries Inde. (note we ve changed to the total return inde which includes divs) GREEN and above the line. No Gap in MMA, ROAR dropping down towards Zero MD Midcap 50 RED and above the line Positive Gap in the MMA. ROAR trending just a little below 20% Continued Midcaps surge since about Jan -17. SOAI Small Ords (change from using SO) Green Below the buy line MMA not open ROAR appro Zero VI Volatility Inde was GREEN (a RED signal for us) It s been trending up slightly for awhile VI is trending above zero In summary I d say there are too many RED buying signals Perhaps in the USA summer holidays there are a dearth of buyers volumes are down and prices are down and a Vi that s slowly drifting up. In Australia there s a little bit of Green however the VI is trending up and it s not looking like a strong market to me. While the jury is out the newsletter portfolio will sit out which can be frustrating.

6 AS Indices with ROAR above 20% New section for this report. Here are the AS indices which closed the week with ROAR above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an inde is going up perhaps consider looking at it s component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I ll mention it) HJ. AS 200 Health Care (RED) NJ AS 200 Industrials (RED) )(warning fairly decent drop last week) UJ AS 200 Utilities (RED) (note this has dropped below the HAVR red line) and looks to be a decent risk of falling below our cutoff) Comment...our short list looks once again to head towards further shrinking.

7 VALUE inde update Let s call the value inde. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Ecludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? One stock that I find interesting on the list is Tassal a former borderline stock. Looks to be paying a dividend above 5% and is forecast to increase earnings over net couple of years.

8 Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks. Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out. Star Stocks NAN, NCK, PMV, RFG, Borderline Stocks DMP, WTC Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above or close to 20% per annum (based on ROAR) AND are above the line. In other words worth assessment for possible rating as a buy. Star Stocks AP, FPH, IRI, NHF, NST, PEA, RRL, SSM, Borderline Stocks GTK Stocks with interesting charts BAP, BBN, HSN, RCG, RHC, SAR, TNE seems to have crossed upwards on HAVR. Sometimes a signal of significant future appreciation. NHF has bounced from a low of about 5.15 a few weeks ago to close above the line at 5.75 this week. Now that s a quick rebound worth looking at.is it on it s way back to recent highs of 5.19? 6 Red 9 Greens perhaps another indicator that the tide (towards growth stocks) has turned The chart below compares Star Growth stocks vs AS200 ETF IOZ over a 1 month period Star stocks are still well ahead over the short period (if I do the same over 6 months or a year star stocks lag a long way behind).

9 Selling Report. Recently we sold NDQ at just saying the NDQ is now sitting at about Net on the chopping block is maybe CHC it s hit the HAVR sell line but not the Chandelier stop loss. I m willing to give this stock a little leeway as it s just gone e on this year s dividend Buying Report. Nothing to report

10 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week The following stocks are on our potential buy list which has not been updated for this week Ticker Closed RED for week A2M** ALL** ALU ARF BRG CGC** CHC** CSL CTD** DL FPH - GUD IHOO** IVC IJ PPT - QUAL REA SDF** SVW** TWE** Important the list hasn t been updated in a couple of weeks and some of these stocks should be off the list so beware. Only 2 were green last week. Another good week to sit on the sidelines.

11 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps me and I might include it (no promises) Chart Comment BBN Star stock Dividend return forecast to be nearly 6% gross PEG forecast to be 1.39 Discount to Lincoln valuation over 30% This stock has probably been affected by the Amazon story (Amazon will wipe out profits for retailers apparently). With this recent cross upwards continue? FPH PE above 40 5 year return 52%pa, 3 year 37%pa, 1 year 16% Consensus shows forecast EPS growth of 18% fy 17 and 27% FY 18. Might be worth a look for those who have a stomach for high PE stocks HSN Star Stock 5 year return 40%pa, 3 year 51%pa, 1 year 21%pa Dividends above 2% PE was high at 27%, however this is well below industry average. This stock has been pretty good to shareholders over the long term is now a good time to pick it up worth thinking about?

12 Parting comment I know I know..i know I posted a similar chart a few weeks ago. However this is still for me the main interest for the week. The NASDAQ is clearly off recent highs.the market seems to have tried to rally after what I thought was an ominous fall the rally failed and the inde seems to be headed down is this a classic head and shoulders that shows up before a continued decline?...on the one hand stocks like Amazon, Nvidia etc really are changing the world on the other they might be seen to have impossibly high PEs.which can t be logically supported which view will win? Personally I think the view from this newsletter is I don t know it s too complicated. I suggest that the solution to the conundrum is something like this. 1. Wait for signs that the market is going up. 2. Try to pick a pool of investable stocks that seem to have decent fundamentals and not too much debt and not too high a PE. 3. From that pool of stocks try to pick those that the market likes (evidence being a growing share price). Buy the best. Don t be too firm on my opinion of those stocks instead see each pick as an eperiment. 4. Cut the losers quickly. They are a failed eperiment. Hold on to gainers for as long as they keep gaining. At some point the market will change for those winners when it does sell out quickly with little hesitation. 5. If the market is going sideways or down the model probably has to change. In such a market we look for deep value stocks that pay decent dividends and sit on those.until perhaps the market decides to wake up and grow again (I m a little unsure of this phase as I ve not seen one for a looong time. Perhaps we ll soon have to work it out.). In a steeply declining market I might try one of the inverse ETFs (they go up in a declining market for eample look at the ETF with the market ticker of BEAR ) Comparison of portfolio returns Newsletter portfolio. Since inception 10/6/ %pa Buffett s Widow passive portfolio. Since inception 1/7/ %pa Star Stocks Portfolio: Since inception 17/11/ % pa (finally it s turned positive)

13 Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information epressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.