Portfolio Vital Statistics

Transcription

1 Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $326,811 Total Portfolio performance since inception 17.03% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 23.78% Cash in portfolio $68k we re currently about 79% invested

2 Current Portfolio Valuation.

3 Since Inception performance table Performance since inception (PA) incl divs Newsletter Portfolio 17.03% (including cash) Stocks in portfolio 23.78% XJOAI 12.46% Star Growth Stocks 8.6% Star income stocks 9.82% Comment. We currently have 12 securities and about $68k in cash about 79% invested. Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% 1 Losers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 0%-5% 4 Gainers 5.1%-10% 2 Gainers10.1% - 20% - Gainers 20%-30% 1 Gainers 40%-50% 1 Gainers >100% 1 Portfolio comment. 9/12 stocks closed green for the week. All stocks are in hold territory hmmm NST seems close to hitting sell signals

4 Status of US and Aus Markets. Green RED USA DJA 1 USA S&P500 1 USA Nasdaq 1 USA Russell USA VIX (inverted (means 1 Green is shown as RED) USA DJA Futures 1 USA S&P 500 Futures 1 USA NASDAQ Futures 1 USA Russell 2000 Futures 1 Aus XAOAI 1 AUS XMD 1 AUS XSOAI 1 AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1 There s a lot of green in the above table and the newsletter portfolio already has jumped back into the market (see below) and will likely buy more next week ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10% New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month) above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month or over 10 but under 20% Over 20% Over 10% XAOAI. All ords Total return XDJ Consumer Discretionary XEC Emerging Companies 1 XEJ ASX 200 Energy XFJ ASX 200 Financials XGD ASX 300 Gold XHJ ASX 200 Health Care XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR 1 XMD Midcap 50 XMJ ASX 200 Materials 1 XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining 1 XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials XPJ Property Trusts XSJ Consumer Staples XSOAI Small Ords TR XTJ Telecommunications XUJ ASX 200 Utilities Comment. Suggest that a focus on materials, resources and mining has been rewarding. Ignore this sector at your peril. I d suggest you must have a plan to sell out if you re going to invest in this sector.

5 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look CSR, HVN, NHC, Comment. Graph still flat

6 Selling Report. Buying Report. All of the above stocks were bought on Friday 16/2 at about 11am. (I bought them also in my real cash portfolio). After several days of uptrend in the USA and a decent signal from the USA futures market I decided it was time to wade back into the market. We re still only about 79% invested so perhaps we might buy a few more stocks next week if the market is trending up both here and overseas. (as usual if the stocks trend down I ll be going to cash).

7 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week We re keeping out of the market at this time however if things turn up for a few days then I might venture back in so these lists have all been updated. (beware though things can change quickly in reporting season. There are loads of things to check out on these lists.it s nice to see so many to work on. Basic Strategy securities AWC ETF Strategy BBOZ. Whenever this is above the line it will be featured here Large Cap Lincoln Stocks Markblatt Strategy Strategy Strategy ABC* ABC* AHY CSR* Bear (see above) CSR* EVN* AWC CWN MQG MQG BHP CWP* PTM RWC BPT* EVN* SDA BSL HVN SVW CSR* IGO WHC IMF* NGI* NWH OZL PTM S32 SBM* SFR* SBM* WHC* MIN MNY NCK* NEC* OZL RIO* RRL* SBM* SFR* SUL TLS WHC*

8 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria. (a) Acceptable Fundamentals (b) Acceptable daily trade volume (c) Acceptable market support at current prices. Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies

9 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps me and I might include it (no promises) Chart Comment AWC* 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 17%, 14% and 21% (approx) ROE prospective is about 17% rising to 18% in year 2. PE prospective is about 14 Dividend above 9% Has been doing well since early MIN* 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 16%, 45% and 54% (approx) ROA is about 22% Div yield is about 4% gross PE prospective is about 12 Quite possibly the lowest PE Star Stock. IPH 5, 3 & 1 year returns are NA%, 0% and (-22%) (approx). Div yield prospective about 8% gross PE prospective is about 13x I sold this stock for $5.06 on 12/2 (when it hit a sell signal). Its since dropped a further 24% approx. to Stock has a high ROA (about 20%) and forecasts show decent growth. If this pops back above the line it might be worth looking at.

10 Parting comment WORLD markets in amazing bounce. Is it a dead cat bounce or are we back to growth?. USA markets seemed to have bounced back as have European and Japanese markets. The VIX surged to highest level for perhaps 5 years and then turned back down again quite sharply. What looked like the start of a slide looks much less like one now. The newsletter portfolio was convinced enough to wade back into the market and buy a few stocks and perhaps will buy more next week (as we like to be fully invested where possible). What are your plans? USA interest rates are trending up (as shown by Bond prices which are trending down). Based on these charts we seem to see evidence that USA interest rates are going up. It s a complicated world and things don t always work out as they should however if USA interest rates are headed up then it would seem reasonable to expect that Australian Interest rates will go up also (something that the RBA confirmed perhaps) or if they don t then the AUD will be headed down. Both of those outcomes affect a lot of things.

11 Gold Copper and Palladium prices have trended up over the past year or so(palladium is used in catalytic converters and electronics for example) What does it all mean? This is my message to myself Looking at the above charts. GET READY TO SELL (but only if sell signals are hit) however GET READY to BUY if the upturn continues. Do not sit and be like a rabbit in the headlights.frozen until run over. I m still kicking myself..i forgot all about the negative ETFs like Bear and BBOZ in the down week. Silly me I missed out on a 10% gain on those.but beware I d want to check these a couple of times per day to make sure I sell if they hit a sell signal. I ve spent about 40% of the pile of cash in the newsletter portfolio this week the rest needs to put that back in the market I need to be careful but not too careful being too careful doesn t work.albeit letting losses run also doesn t work Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.