1 P a g e. Executive Summary

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1 Executive Summary Last week we expected a bottom within 2-3 days, we were unfortunately wrong, as instead the market turned into a confused- frog blender swirling around our Fib-based, and the Bradley turn dates, for that week. However, last week s rally was overlapping, confused, and we therefore continue to expect the market to bottom at around SPX Likely within the next 5-10 trading days and ideally around early-may before turning higher to make new ATHs and top around SPX from which an even larger correction than the current one will unfold. Hence, a buying opportunity for longs is around the corner, but when we start to top in that region profit taking/reducing long exposures, also for longer term investors, will become prudent. The hourly chart tells us we can see another spike higher to SPX2370s, but it s not necessary. IF Thursday s SPX2361 high was all she wrote, then we can calculate a low in the SPX target zone based on Fib-extensions. Again in-line with the same target zone we ve had for almost 2 months now. The daily and weekly charts continue to look weak, and their respective Technical Indicators (TIs) continue to forecast lower prices ahead. Support is at SPX2320ish, SPX2300ish, SPX2280ish. Market breadth remains weak and on a sell; not the set-up that is seen at market turns (surging breadth). Hence: no turn yet, no need to even consider going long. Investor sentiment continues to remain in the doldrums continuing to suggest the next big rally intermediate-v- is around the corner. It s just taken a bit longer than expected, but maybe the market really requires nobody to believe in it before it can rally!? 1 P a g e

2 Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. Last week we got caught in the frog blender, but were able to minimize losses with prudent stops and decision making. Losing trades is part of the game (only on-line heroes win all trades) and they keep us sharp, humble, and nimble. Currently NPP is net-short and clearly still out performing all major market indices. Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free! Please follow NPP on (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 2 P a g e

3 Elliot wave updates Last week the DOW made a new correction low, whereas the S&P500 couldn t even reach the expected SPX2320 as it was buoyed by the stronger tech-sector. It got caught in an overlapping advance and has so far topped in the ideal SPX target zone, which is the % retrace of the prior (green) minor-b (Grey box in Figure 1). Since figure-1 is very detailed, we provided the insert with just the wave labels and wave length. (Green) 79p long minor-a consisted of three minute waves: p. Minor-c has so far been xx points. Hence, based on symmetry minute-b can certainly still extend a bit, but not necessarily as it reached the minimum required 50% retrace of the prior minute-a. Based on this symmetry it is therefore also less like for minute-b to reach the 76.4% retrace at SPX2382 and more likely it will stay within the % retrace zone: SPX Hence, short term the market s next move is a bit unclear, but intermediate term we expect any possible short-term upside to be sold-off to new lows below SPX2322. In fact, using Fib-extensions assuming minute-b topped at SPX2361 we continue to see minute-c of minor-c of intermediate-iv to reach between SPX Nothing has changed that: see page 2 for our ideal-wave-tracker tables. Figure 1. SPX 60min chart: minute-b of minor-c may extend, but minor-c still underway to ideally SPX c=1.382x a iii b: 35p b: 56p b: 32p a: 46p a: 79p a: 49p 3 P a g e

4 In one of last week s updates we gave downside targets using our ideal-wave-tracker tables only to see the maret rally the next day. Hence, provding these tables again we revised numbers may seem like insanity (doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different outcome), but in fact the outcome remains the same. So we are not insane. Table 1 shows the minor-c of intermediate-iv targets, similarly as before as those waves haven t changed. Table 2 shows the minute-c of minor-c of intermediate-iv targets as minute-b has changed. However, clearly we have again great overlap (see blue and yellow boxes) and SPX remains our ideal target zone. It is currently too early to tell which we ll reach. Table 1: Intermediate-iv targets based on minor waves Table 2: Intermediate-iv targets based on minute waves of minor waves 4 P a g e

5 Technical Market update On Thursday the S&P500 rallied hard, but was unable to close above the 50d SMA nor above the black descending dotted trend line (see same trend line in figure 1; though it s red in that chart) leaving much to be desired. We wanted to bring the orange boxes (back) to your attention as ALL important lows since February 2016 are marked with 3+ big up days in a row (and surging market breadth). We got again- neither this time. The recent A.I. signals all remain non-ideal and the flip-flopping between signals (green and red dotted arrows) clearly mean one thing: correction ongoing. A red day on Monday will give a non-ideal sell-signal, adding weight to the evidence that (grey) minute-b of (green) minor-c topped at SPX2361. Figure 2. SPX daily chart. Price lost support and all TIs are pointing down: more downside to be expected. 5 P a g e

6 The weekly chart of the S&P500 continues to be weak as well i.e. mostly down pointing- TIs: the weekly A.I. remains on a sell, and will likely turn back up on a weekly close >SPX2380. The MACD sell-signal from 2 weeks ago continues as well: weakness short term, but not long term (see blue vertical lines). Support is at the 20w SMA: SPX2317. Note, the weekly SMAs are still bullishly aligned: all are pointing up and all are bullishly stacked (20>50>100>150>200). Hence, intermediate to long term there will be more upside (see next page for a revisit of our price targets). Figure 3. SPX weekly TI chart. All TIs point down, A.I. and MACD remain on a sell : lower prices should be expected. 6 P a g e

7 Market breadth The McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPX-MO) continued to remain weak throughout the week and ended the week again- in the red. The SPXMO has not ended a week green since March 1. The bears are in charge. Period! As such the SPX-SI (summation index of the SPX-MO) remains on a sell, albeit being oversold per its RSI14, but there s no turn in site, so no need to bet on the long side yet. We need strong surging positive market breadth to signal the low is in and have the SPX-SI turn back up. Until then: down it is. Figure 4. SPX-MO remains weak, ending its 7 th consecutive week red. As such the SPX-SI remains on a sell. 7 P a g e

8 However, the weekly NYAD (advancing/declining issues) made another new closing high last week, continuing to strongly suggesting that the current correction is just that: a correction. This is in line with our preferred POV of the market longer term. Figure 6. Weekly NYAD: new closing high. Any correction will be just that: a correction Daily and weekly chart s TIs remain weak and market breadth hasn t confirmed an important low is in and neither has price. We need to see both surge for 3+ days. This hasn t happened. Hence, the weight of the evidence continues to tell us to look lower intermediate term, and higher long term. Short term we can expect more chop: it s a 4 th wave none-theless. 8 P a g e

9 Miscellaneous Our long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long term investing) continues to be 100% bullish: the long term trend remains up; even with the current over a month long correction, which has not changed this chart at all (see also 2014 for example). As such this chart also continues to support our overall view of the market and where it will head over the next several months: higher. Our short term chart (ST-SMA, for traders to swing traders) remains at 40% bullish, supporting the ongoing correction. Figure 6. LT-SMA chart 100% bullish ST-SMA chart 40% Bullish. Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. Below is how a 100% bullish chart look likes, everything points up. Price > fastest SMAs > slowest SMAs. The Ebola scare correction in 2014 didn t even register on the LT chart! After the spike to 0.96 at the SPX2329 close, the $CPCE (equities only put/call ratio), a contrarian indicator at extreme levels (>0.90 bottom close, <0.50 top close) moved back rather fast to the 0.6s. Hence, most traders now expect continued upside: for each two put being bought there are now 3 calls being bought. The VIX, however, is clearly trending more up than down. Figure 7: CPCE back to more calls, VIX up trending. 9 P a g e

10 Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 Our next turn date is May 2 for the S&P500 and May 1 for the Dow Jones. The next Bradley turn dates are on Saturday April 29, and on Friday May 5. All are +/- 2-3 trading days. January 18 (50/100 Long Terms Power) January 30 (55/100 Middle Terms Power) March 20 (100/100 Long Terms Power) April 3 (31/100 Declinations Power) April 17 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) April 19 (59/100 Middle Terms Power) April 29 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power May 5 (30/100 Declinations Power) June 9 (61/100 Long Terms Power) June 21 (100/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) June 30 (100/100 Declinations Power) July 4 (100/100 Middle Terms Power) August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power) September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power) December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) 10 P a g e

11 ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 2017, Intelligent Investing. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 11 P a g e